1st Round Opponent Tracking Thread

dunlop212 · Post #141 » by **dunlop212** » Wed Apr 11, 2018 1:07 pm

How would a Portland loss affect its draft position?

red_power · Post #142 » by **red_power** » Wed Apr 11, 2018 2:31 pm

dunlop212 wrote:How would a Portland loss affect its draft position?

It adds blazers to a coinflip pool. Otherwise portland is locked with 24 pick.

red_power · Post #143 » by **red_power** » Wed Apr 11, 2018 2:48 pm

Moonbeam wrote:Utah's win means that Portland's first round opponent will be one of Denver, New Orleans, San Antonio, or Minnesota. Probably New Orleans or San Antonio, as it is only a Memphis win that opens the door for Minnesota and Denver to move into 6th.

To me narrowing a list of potential blazers opponents down to a winner of the NOP - SAS matchup seems like a good idea :wink:

Wizenheimer · Post #144 » by **Wizenheimer** » Wed Apr 11, 2018 4:10 pm

DusterBuster wrote:I hate seeing the Jazz have anything good happen to them, that said, this did prove my point that Gordon Hayward was massively overrated.

he's certainly overrated now by a lot of Boston fans; to 'hear them talk', the Celtics would have won 70 games if Hayward hadn't been hurt. The issue is that Hayward would be taking minutes away from Tatum and Brown, and both of those guys have been really good this season, considering their ages.

Hayward last season? he was pretty good and normally, would have been a significant loss. But they replaced their backcourt of Hayward & Hill/Mack with Donovan Mitchell and Ricky Rubio. That has effectively masked the loss of Hayward because both have been really good this season

and it also helped that somehow, 30 year old Joe Ingels upgraded his game exponentially. It's pretty amazing how good he's been this season

Wizenheimer · Post #145 » by **Wizenheimer** » Wed Apr 11, 2018 4:31 pm

The Sebastian Express wrote:We can hope that Utah spent a lot of energy - I'm not talking about playing energy, but like.. adrenaline because last home game of the year big game just crushed the opponent kind of energy - and maybe they'll see a letdown.

I wouldn't count on that. If they win, they are guaranteed 3rd seed and HCA in the 1st round. If they lose. the only way they get 4th seed and HCA is if Memphis beats OKC (unlikely) and that game should be ending or over when the Utah/PDX game starts

a bunch of things pivot on that Memphis/OKC gams; too bad the Grizz aren't a better team, tonight would be real exciting

by the way, If OKC wins, there are 4 of 16 scenarios where they get 4th seed and HCA. If they lose to Memphis, there are 8 of 16 scenarios where they fall all the way to 8th and draw the Rockets in the 1st round. So, they will be motivated. There are now no scenarios where OKC ends up 7th. Ignoring favorites in games, 25% chance of 4th, 25% chance of 6th, 50% chance of 8th

Wizenheimer · Post #146 » by **Wizenheimer** » Wed Apr 11, 2018 4:49 pm

looking at the tiebreaker cheat sheet, it's pretty simple for Portland

there are 16 scenarios left after the Utah/GS game result

win tonight and Portland will be 3rd seed and have HCA. 8 opponent scenarios:

* 2 with Denver (but only if Memphis beats OKC)

* 2 with New Orleans (but only if New Orleans beats Spurs)

* 1 with Minnesota (again, Memphis has to beat OKC)

* 3 with the Spurs (all require Spurs to beat Pelicans

Lose tonight and 6 scenarios for 4th seed & HCA; 2 scenarios for 5th seed

* for the two 5th seed scenarios, both require Spurs to beat New Orleans and Memphis to beat OKC. If that happens Blazers would open on the road against the Spurs (uh oh)

* for the 4th seed, 4 scenarios lead to the Pelicans and 2 lead to the Spurs

Masterfully · Post #147 » by **Masterfully** » Wed Apr 11, 2018 5:13 pm

Wizenheimer wrote:looking at the tiebreaker cheat sheet, it's pretty simple for Portland

there are 16 scenarios left after the Utah/GS game result

win tonight and Portland will be 3rd seed and have HCA. 8 opponent scenarios:

* 2 with Denver (but only if Memphis beats OKC)

* 2 with New Orleans (but only if New Orleans beats Spurs)

* 1 with Minnesota (again, Memphis has to beat OKC)

* 3 with the Spurs (all require Spurs to beat Pelicans

Lose tonight and 6 scenarios for 4th seed & HCA; 2 scenarios for 5th seed

* for the two 5th seed scenarios, both require Spurs to beat New Orleans and Memphis to beat OKC. If that happens Blazers would open on the road against the Spurs (uh oh)

* for the 4th seed, 4 scenarios lead to the Pelicans and 2 lead to the Spurs

Uhhhh is there a cheat sheet for your cheat sheet?

Wizenheimer · Post #148 » by **Wizenheimer** » Wed Apr 11, 2018 5:18 pm

Masterfully wrote:
Wizenheimer wrote:
Spoiler:
looking at the tiebreaker cheat sheet, it's pretty simple for Portland

there are 16 scenarios left after the Utah/GS game result

win tonight and Portland will be 3rd seed and have HCA. 8 opponent scenarios:

* 2 with Denver (but only if Memphis beats OKC)

* 2 with New Orleans (but only if New Orleans beats Spurs)

* 1 with Minnesota (again, Memphis has to beat OKC)

* 3 with the Spurs (all require Spurs to beat Pelicans

Lose tonight and 6 scenarios for 4th seed & HCA; 2 scenarios for 5th seed

* for the two 5th seed scenarios, both require Spurs to beat New Orleans and Memphis to beat OKC. If that happens Blazers would open on the road against the Spurs (uh oh)

* for the 4th seed, 4 scenarios lead to the Pelicans and 2 lead to the Spurs

Uhhhh is there a cheat sheet for your cheat sheet?

oh!...sorry

obviously, after last night, only the bottom half of that chart applies

Post #149 » by **Moonbeam** » Wed Apr 11, 2018 5:20 pm

Dzon Dilindzer wrote:
Moonbeam wrote:Utah's win means that Portland's first round opponent will be one of Denver, New Orleans, San Antonio, or Minnesota. Probably New Orleans or San Antonio, as it is only a Memphis win that opens the door for Minnesota and Denver to move into 6th.

how Porltand-OKC mathcup is not possible

Tiebreaking scenarios prevent any matchups with Portland and OKC. Post 122 has a graphic with all of the scenarios to finish the season (before Utah beat Golden State, rendering the top half of those 32 scenarios null and void).

Norm2953 · Post #150 » by **Norm2953** » Wed Apr 11, 2018 5:21 pm

I would be comfortable with the 4 seed and a match up with either the Spurs/Pelicans. It doesn't
hurt getting into a pool for draft position for I've always been skeptical about this teams's chances
in the post season. The Jazz are likely the most dangerous team outside of the Rockets and having
them in the same bracket as the GSW is not a bad thing.

Wizenheimer · Post #151 » by **Wizenheimer** » Wed Apr 11, 2018 5:59 pm

well, last night Luc Mbah a Moute dislocated his shoulder on a dunk and will likely miss at least the 1st round. So, Houston got bit by the injury bug in a meaningless game

you get bet coaches everywhere noticed that

dunlop212 · Post #152 » by **dunlop212** » Wed Apr 11, 2018 6:14 pm

Looks like tonight's game decides between 3 and 4 (any chance of 5 likely gone at game time). Funny how much anxiety over trying to stay on the GS side of the bracket. At the beginning of the season some folks thought the season was a simple cakewalk for GS.

Not only that, but the consolation prize could be coin flips for a midrange draft pick.

monopoman · Post #153 » by **monopoman** » Wed Apr 11, 2018 7:42 pm

dunlop212 wrote:Looks like tonight's game decides between 3 and 4 (any chance of 5 likely gone at game time). Funny how much anxiety over trying to stay on the GS side of the bracket. At the beginning of the season some folks thought the season was a simple cakewalk for GS.

Not only that, but the consolation prize could be coin flips for a midrange draft pick.

If Curry comes back and looks great in the second round that matchup with GS in the second round might be even worse than facing a fully healthy Houston.

Either team is tough to beat don't get me wrong, but acting like GS is the far easier opponent is a joke. If both teams are fully healthy I would rather face Houston. I mean **** they had rough injury luck all season and still flirted with nearly getting 60 wins this season. I also stand by the fact that I think they were in coasting mode much of the season and weren't 100% concerned with locking up that #1 seed.

dunlop212 · Post #154 » by **dunlop212** » Wed Apr 11, 2018 11:28 pm

There is a chance that GS loses in the first round, though. Still, I wonder if locking up the 3 is worth more than potentially moving up 4 slots in the first round draft? Especially if it is HCA either way.

Fitz303 · Post #155 » by **Fitz303** » Thu Apr 12, 2018 1:21 am

It's looking like the Pelicans are going to be the 1st rd opponent. Thunder are up 20 on the Grizzlies, and Pelicans are up 18 on the Spurs. Both still at halftime, but if it keeps this way, Portland plays the Pelicans win or lose against the Jazz. Just a matter of if they want to be in the 1 seed bracket or 2 seed bracket

zzaj · Post #156 » by **zzaj** » Thu Apr 12, 2018 1:27 am

Well, OKC is crushing the Griz and the Spurs are down big to New Orleans...

bhelser1981 · Post #157 » by **bhelser1981** » Thu Apr 12, 2018 2:36 am

So we play NOP no matter what... it my brain needs help uh understanding. If we win, we are 3 seed, and NOP 6. If we lose, we are 4 and NOP get the 5th?

So does that mean the Jazz are fighting for 3rd or 5th, no chance of 4th for them?

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DusterBuster · Post #158 » by **DusterBuster** » Thu Apr 12, 2018 5:26 am

bhelser1981 wrote:So we play NOP no matter what... it my brain needs help uh understanding. If we win, we are 3 seed, and NOP 6. If we lose, we are 4 and NOP get the 5th?

So does that mean the Jazz are fighting for 3rd or 5th, no chance of 4th for them?

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You're not alone. I am just as confused by that as you.

JasonStern · Post #159 » by **JasonStern** » Thu Apr 12, 2018 5:51 am

In before a first round win against the Pelicans makes management/ownership think we are closer to contending than we are and the inevitable bad decisions as a result.

GreenRiddler · Post #160 » by **GreenRiddler** » Thu Apr 12, 2018 6:12 am

We can pay small ball VS the Pels with Bazz Pat or Wade if Turner is playing bad. On the flipside Turner can postup anybody.

I like Wade getting mins in this series over Pat. He can defend and hound Jrue, bait Rondo into techs and stop Ian Clark rom going off like he did vs us with the Warriors and even matchup on Moore. Just a lot of guys we can put him and ET on.