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Forget the "Market"; What is Nurkic's Value?

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Forget the "Market"; What is Nurkic's Value? 

Post#1 » by Wizenheimer » Sat Mar 31, 2018 6:33 pm

we know the refrain about the limited league-wide cap-space this summer and how that could impact Nurkic's next contract if Portland played hardball

but most teams simply don't play hardball with their 'prized' rookie scale player when they re-sign them to 2nd contracts. It's just not good politics and under Paul Allen, the Blazers have a long history of rewarding their players in this situation. Their M.O. has to been to pay for the perceived value rather then pay the minimum the market would dictate. Portland did that with Dame, although it's worth noting again (and again) that Dame actually accepted less money in order to give the Blazers a little more space to work with (and for damn sure Paul Allen knows that Dame did that so keep it in mind the next time someone suggests Portland should shop Dame)

***************************************

and the Blazers didn't let the market dictate the contract they gave to CJ. They gave him a near-max of 26.5M/year and it's unlikely any team would have given CJ an offer sheet like that last summer.

and in many ways, CJ's contract can be held up as a template for what Nurkic should get. Nurk is going to be one of Portland's 'big-3'. And I think a strong argument can be made that Nurkic has had a much bigger positive impact for Portland then CJ has. For instance, last season was CJ's best season. His numbers are such that you have to wonder if what he did was over his head and won't be repeated. And in his 'best' season, the Blazers were a .500 team; But even that is deceptive because Portland's record was 23-32 when Nurk played his first game as a Blazer. We all saw Nurkic fever and how that seemed to change the team direction

now, before CJ fans say I'm just bashing CJ again, I want to make clear I'm talking about Nurkic and the impact he's had, not so much about CJ. Portland was 23-32 and Dame was the leader of that team

and then, there is this season. CJ has fallen off last years production and efficiency, but Portland is 9 games over .500. (I have mistakenly been saying they were 17 or 18 games over .500 but that was just dumb math on my part)

so what is the difference between last season and this season? Where is the most notable change? That's a rhetorical question of course because I think we all know the biggest change to Portland's fortunes, and that's on the defensive side of the ball. Last year, Portland ranked 24th; this season they rank 7th. And their offense has even dropped a little from last season to this.

obviously, there's a lot of factors at work here, not just the presence of Nurkic

* I think Dame has had his best season as a pro and to me, it seems significantly better. He spent most of the season playing like a top-5 player. And remarkably, his improvement on defense has been significant. Dame is the unquestioned leader of this Blazer team and it's been a long time since the Blazers have had a leader this worthy

* having a healthy Ed Davis has made a huge difference. The quality of his production, effort, and hustle make the 2nd unit formidable. Another thing he has reportedly done is mentor and push Zach Collins, and that Davis/Collins pairing has really made the Blazer front court rotation a strength. And I won't fail to note that Davis and Collins replacing about a 1000 minutes that Meyers played last season has been a big positive for Portland. Sorry Meyers...not really

* having Harkless and Aminu combine for nearly 40% shooting from three has been huge as well

* taking the ball out of Turner's hands and putting it in Napier's has had a notable impact.

* health; sure, I've pointed at this plenty, and it has been a huge factor all year, but at a certain point, you have to give credit to the durability of Blazer players. Jimmy Butler is a much better player then CJ, but CJ is playing right now and Butler isn't. I doubt that the Blazer scouting department found some secret formula to predict durability, but we all know that just pure luck can be one of the biggest factors for a team's success

********************************************************

anyway, back to defense and Nurk's impact. He leads the team in every defensive metric, usually by a significant margin. Not only that, his DRPM stacks up against the rest of the NBA...

for Centers:

1 Rudy Gobert 5.11
2 Jusuf Nurkic 4.27
3 Aron Baynes 4.18
4 Hassan Whiteside 3.75
5 Joel Embiid 3.72

and for all players:

1 Rudy Gobert, C 5.11
2 David West, PF 4.56
3 Andre Roberson, SG 4.55
4 Jusuf Nurkic, C 4.27
5 Aron Baynes, C 4.18
6 Hassan Whiteside, C 3.75

and it's important to note that West averages less then 14 minutes and Baynes averages 18

many of us Blazer fans have been fantasizing for years about how Portland would look with a real rim protector and a defensive presence in the paint, at least since the Oden experiment went bust. We even had a fairly recent example of how much a defensive big man could impact the team. Portland had Dame-Matthews-Batum-Aldridge with JJ Hickson as the starting C. They won 33 games. The next season, they 'traded' Hickson for Robin Lopez and won 54 games and a playoff series

************************************************

so then, back to measuring Nurk's impact and setting his contract value accordingly. We know his impact on the defense has been huge and we have ample reason to believe Portland improved defense has radically changed Portland's prospects.

we also can see that Nurk really seems to be making significant strides on offense as the season has progressed. About 6 weeks ago, Nurk's PER was 15.4; look at team ranking now:

Damian Lillard 24.8
Jusuf Nurkic 19.1
C.J. McCollum 17.4
Ed Davis 15.8
Shabazz Napier 14.7
Maurice Harkless 12.6
Al-Farouq Aminu 12.3
Evan Turner 9.7
Pat Connaughton 9.2
Zach Collins 8.1

CJ will be making 27.6M/year over the next 3 years and him playing great or just playing good doesn't seem to steer Portland in a notable direction. Nurk does seem to steer the team because of his defense; meanwhile CJ ranks last among Blazer rotation players in every defensive metric

and of course, there are Nurk's C peers:

Anthony Davis - 27.5M/year
Andre Drummond - 27M/year
Hassan Whiteside - 25.5M/year
Steven Adams - 25M/year
Rudy Gobert - 25M/year

for a while there, people were talking about Nurk only getting 10-15M/year. I always thought that low end was absurd. Then, for a while it was 15-18M a year. Now people seem to be setting the floor in the 18-20M range. By rights, he probably should be making as much as CJ but that does loop back around to that number being wildly divorced from the cap-space market.

so where is that justifiable compromise between market and actual value-based impact? The median between what other young C's are getting and what Portland can afford?

to me, the 'fair' amount would be around 25M. The 'market amount would probably be in the 18 range, but that just seems only justified ain a hardball world and I'm skeptical the Blazers will go that direction, especially after the meeting Dame had with Paul Allen
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Re: Forget the "Market"; What is Nurkic's Value? 

Post#2 » by monopoman » Sat Mar 31, 2018 7:06 pm

I think a 'fair' market value for him is easily a max contract. He has proven that he is an extremely valuable player on the floor, he is one of the best at defending the basket in the NBA. You can see countless times that opponents have a much easier time attacking the basket when he sits. Offensively he is also quite effective and he has really worked on not rushing shots to end the season which has made his offensive game even more impressive.

Basically he is everything a team wants in a Center and fits the modern game quite well. Now the actual value he may fetch may be closer to 20 million or so a season, but who knows maybe some random bad team throws the max at him because they are desperate for any potential good free agent to sign. Similar to the Allen Crabbe contract from the 2016 off-season, which while not a max contract was obviously extremely high.
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Re: Forget the "Market"; What is Nurkic's Value? 

Post#3 » by Blaze the Nugz » Sat Mar 31, 2018 8:14 pm

I would start with an offer of $20M/yr and go from there. Nurk and his agent are obviously aware of the current market conditions, and how many teams can/will offer over $20M/yr. I agree that Nurk's value to the Blazers is greater than that of McCollum. However, Nurk must understand that comparing his next contract to McCollum's would be an apples-to-oranges comparison given the current state of cap space across the league. 4 years/$80M would make Nurk Portland's 3rd highest paid player. That doesn't seem offensive at all. I would certainly expect Nurk to be offended by an offer equal to or lower than that of Turner's contract, though.
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Re: Forget the "Market"; What is Nurkic's Value? 

Post#4 » by DusterBuster » Sat Mar 31, 2018 8:21 pm

I still think it's absolutely bonkers you keep suggesting CJ wouldnt have gotten a max offer last summer. Its a really strange island youve decided to build a residence on
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Re: Forget the "Market"; What is Nurkic's Value? 

Post#5 » by GreenRiddler » Sat Mar 31, 2018 8:27 pm

I don't know how a guy putting up 23ppg on 48% and 42% wouldn't get a max offer from any team that had money for it. Philly would've scooped that up I mean that's the reason they gave Reddick a big ass one year deal cause there was no SG like CJ on the market to give it to on a 4 year deal.

Pretty fringe opinion. Realgmers aren't FO execs but I'd wager going to any board that is in need of a SG and had money last year they'd all ok giving McCollum a max offer. I really don't get this crusade you're on but go ahead.


meanwhile CJ ranks last among Blazer rotation players in every metric


One would question why he is then even in the rotation to begin with.
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Re: Forget the "Market"; What is Nurkic's Value? 

Post#6 » by red_power » Sat Mar 31, 2018 8:41 pm

The fact CJ could have gotten a max paycheck from bunch of desperate managers doesn't make him nowhere close to all star level nor makes him a good sidekick on the court next to dame.
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Re: Forget the "Market"; What is Nurkic's Value? 

Post#7 » by GreenRiddler » Sat Mar 31, 2018 8:54 pm

So it is my take away that alot of people now think a 1ppg drop off from a season we won 41 games to this season at what will be 48-51games won means that player has very little to do with any success we have as a team. Which means that we can now move onto the plan where we start Pat at SG for a lot of cap relief.
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Re: Forget the "Market"; What is Nurkic's Value? 

Post#8 » by armin-x » Sat Mar 31, 2018 9:55 pm

Blaze the Nugz wrote:I would start with an offer of $20M/yr and go from there. Nurk and his agent are obviously aware of the current market conditions, and how many teams can/will offer over $20M/yr. I agree that Nurk's value to the Blazers is greater than that of McCollum. However, Nurk must understand that comparing his next contract to McCollum's would be an apples-to-oranges comparison given the current state of cap space across the league. 4 years/$80M would make Nurk Portland's 3rd highest paid player. That doesn't seem offensive at all. I would certainly expect Nurk to be offended by an offer equal to or lower than that of Turner's contract, though.

Or Biyombo (72 mil)...Noah, 72 mil...Lol

If Im Nurkic I wouldn't settle for anything less than 90mil (and thats probably discount).. Because no way that Goran Dragic has more value (not to mention that bum Wiggins, Chandler Parsons, ect.) than me( :) )...

I know market situation is little bit different this year, Blazers salary cap is a mess (you need to, at least, stretch Meyers salary....and hope to find someone dumb enough to take Turner's contract) but still...

*Nurkic is also third in the league amongst centers in rim protection (DFG % )

He is still very young and have room to grow (offensively). Next season, in Blazers uniform of course, I expecting something like : 29 MPG, 15,5 PPG, 9,5 RPG (he could easily achieve 10,5 if he wants) 1,5 BPG, 2,5 APG, FG% about 52-53 (he doesn't play above the rim, so that should be OK) with all nba defense. What's not to like?
Marc Gasol was considerd best center in the league for years (or behind Cousins) with similar stats and impact.

My only concern about him is if he could stay healthy on the long term. But that's was question around Embiid but he took 140 mil.

He is legit second (ceiling)-third banana in a contender....think something like Chris Bosh in Miami.

Şorry for grammar
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Re: Forget the "Market"; What is Nurkic's Value? 

Post#9 » by DusterBuster » Sat Mar 31, 2018 11:05 pm

I think Olshey and Allen already know how much they're going to pay and are prepared to do so. I'll be stunned if Allen lets a core piece to a 50 win team go, regardless of the price. So at this point, I'm not really bothering to care about how much he ends up paying in the end to keep Nurk.
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Re: Forget the "Market"; What is Nurkic's Value? 

Post#10 » by Wizenheimer » Sat Mar 31, 2018 11:38 pm

DusterBuster wrote:I still think it's absolutely bonkers you keep suggesting CJ wouldnt have gotten a max offer last summer. Its a really strange island youve decided to build a residence on


by the way, I think that's the first time I've said that CJ would not have received a max contract. Rather, what I have said is that CJ has the 9th biggest contract and the 19th highest salary, but he's not that close to being a top-10 or top-20 player

and that's not really important. Do you disagree that Nurkic's impact on Portland is at the minimum equal to CJ's?...or that a strong argument can be made his impact is greater?

that was basically my point. You have no trouble at all justifying a max contract for CJ; you've made that argument before, as have many. But if CJ 'deserves' a max contract, does Nurkic deserve less?

I probably should have been more circumspect in drawing a parallel between Nurkic and CJ because it's predicable it would set a couple of people off. Sorry about that. But I do believe the comparison is a pretty effective way of setting value.
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Re: Forget the "Market"; What is Nurkic's Value? 

Post#11 » by Wizenheimer » Sun Apr 1, 2018 12:19 am

GreenRiddler wrote:I don't know how a guy putting up 23ppg on 48% and 42% wouldn't get a max offer from any team that had money for it. Philly would've scooped that up I mean that's the reason they gave Reddick a big ass one year deal cause there was no SG like CJ on the market to give it to on a 4 year deal.

Pretty fringe opinion. Realgmers aren't FO execs but I'd wager going to any board that is in need of a SG and had money last year they'd all ok giving McCollum a max offer. I really don't get this crusade you're on but go ahead.


meanwhile CJ ranks last among Blazer rotation players in every metric


One would question why he is then even in the rotation to begin with.


I guess I knew you would take exception to any suggestion of CJ is a negative light.

but my point was to contrast the impact CJ has vs the impact Nurkic has had; and that in relation to CJ's salary and what Nurkic's should be if things are equal.
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Re: Forget the "Market"; What is Nurkic's Value? 

Post#12 » by zzaj » Sun Apr 1, 2018 5:16 am

IMO Nurkic's value based on past salary caps and salaries of players in a similar talent/age tier is between 25-28M/year.

In the deflated market, with a few free agents that will likely get the big money that the few teams with capspace to spend, his value is probably 15M/year. I still think that the somewhere in the middle, maybe 20M is what Nurkic will get.
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Re: Forget the "Market"; What is Nurkic's Value? 

Post#13 » by Norm2953 » Sun Apr 1, 2018 5:34 am

I do think Portland can use Dame's and CJ's deals as taking a bit less than the max for the alternative
to a player like Nurk is a less stable organization and going back to the guy who had some DNP's in
his time in Denver. He's going to get a four year deal with perhaps an opt out but likely Portland
will not hard ball him in coming to a relatively quick deal
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Re: Forget the "Market"; What is Nurkic's Value? 

Post#14 » by Soulyss » Sun Apr 1, 2018 2:38 pm

Wizenheimer wrote:we know the refrain about the limited league-wide cap-space this summer and how that could impact Nurkic's next contract if Portland played hardball

and the Blazers didn't let the market dictate the contract they gave to CJ. They gave him a near-max of 26.5M/year and it's unlikely any team would have given CJ an offer sheet like that last summer.


CJ was going to get a max-offer, Portland was pro-active and it made sense. I suspect they will be pro-acive with Nurk, but it's just smart to take into account the market, and Portland should.

anyway, back to defense and Nurk's impact. He leads the team in every defensive metric, usually by a significant margin. Not only that, his DRPM stacks up against the rest of the NBA...

for Centers:

1 Rudy Gobert 5.11
2 Jusuf Nurkic 4.27
3 Aron Baynes 4.18
4 Hassan Whiteside 3.75
5 Joel Embiid 3.72

and for all players:

1 Rudy Gobert, C 5.11
2 David West, PF 4.56
3 Andre Roberson, SG 4.55
4 Jusuf Nurkic, C 4.27
5 Aron Baynes, C 4.18
6 Hassan Whiteside, C 3.75



No argument about Nurk's impact on the defensive end, however you can't discount his negative effects on the offensive end thus-far. DRPM is only half the story, although it was an important story for Portland.

so then, back to measuring Nurk's impact and setting his contract value accordingly. We know his impact on the defense has been huge and we have ample reason to believe Portland improved defense has radically changed Portland's prospects.

we also can see that Nurk really seems to be making significant strides on offense as the season has progressed. About 6 weeks ago, Nurk's PER was 15.4; look at team ranking now:

Damian Lillard 24.8
Jusuf Nurkic 19.1
C.J. McCollum 17.4
Ed Davis 15.8
Shabazz Napier 14.7
Maurice Harkless 12.6
Al-Farouq Aminu 12.3
Evan Turner 9.7
Pat Connaughton 9.2
Zach Collins 8.1


I started the conversation on the improvement of Nurk a couple of weeks ago, I agree he's shown growth. It's easy to see just in the "eye test" during the game let alone the box score. He's not perfect, but the improvement is clearly there.

and of course, there are Nurk's C peers:

Anthony Davis - 27.5M/year
Andre Drummond - 27M/year
Hassan Whiteside - 25.5M/year
Steven Adams - 25M/year
Rudy Gobert - 25M/year


AD & Whiteside are not really his peer group (2nd contract, bigs peak late, etc). Gobert, Adams, Capela, Jokic, Embidd, Drummond are a better list based on age, etc. In the group I listed, you can make a pretty strong argument Nurkic is the weakest of that group at this time.

to me, the 'fair' amount would be around 25M. The 'market amount would probably be in the 18 range, but that just seems only justified ain a hardball world and I'm skeptical the Blazers will go that direction, especially after the meeting Dame had with Paul Allen


I think Nurkic is a very important piece of the future, and I think he will continue to improve over the next couple of years. I don't think he's a max-guy now, although he might be on contract #2. Portland should be pro-active and try and set the market with Nurkic rather than waiting for someone like Capela to sign. I think 4/72 would have been fair market given where he is now during a normal market. I think he will sign for less than that... I am going to say he signs for 3/48 (intentionally shorter deal) which puts him in a position to re-up at age 26 at the peak of his prime the same year Dame and CJ are scheduled to re-up.

I have every belief that Nurk will earn that max deal for his 2nd contract.
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Re: Forget the "Market"; What is Nurkic's Value? 

Post#15 » by zzaj » Sun Apr 1, 2018 4:14 pm

Soulyss, you just got done saying that you think Nurkic is in the same tier/peer group as Gobert, Adams, Capela, Jokic, Embid and Drummond, 3 of which are making 25M+ per year...but you think under a normal market Nurkic is worth 18M/year?
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Re: Forget the "Market"; What is Nurkic's Value? 

Post#16 » by Norm2953 » Sun Apr 1, 2018 4:28 pm

I've thought from the beginning he's going to get $24 Million which would place him squarely amongst
his peers. If they can sign him for less, more power to NO but he's going to get paid.

To me what comes afterward is more important. If we project Nurk and Zach Collins up front with
Dame/CJ as our backcourt, we need to find the best fit at the 3. I could see Portland opting for
a speed/quickness guy to inject opportunities to get easy baskets for as we are currently built,
we're a half court team. How to build the rest of the team is going to be a challenge with so
much of our cap tied up in 3 players but I suspect management will find a way to offload guys
who aren't needed.
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Re: Forget the "Market"; What is Nurkic's Value? 

Post#17 » by Wizenheimer » Sun Apr 1, 2018 5:06 pm

Soulyss wrote:
Spoiler:
anyway, back to defense and Nurk's impact. He leads the team in every defensive metric, usually by a significant margin. Not only that, his DRPM stacks up against the rest of the NBA...

for Centers:

1 Rudy Gobert 5.11
2 Jusuf Nurkic 4.27
3 Aron Baynes 4.18
4 Hassan Whiteside 3.75
5 Joel Embiid 3.72

and for all players:

1 Rudy Gobert, C 5.11
2 David West, PF 4.56
3 Andre Roberson, SG 4.55
4 Jusuf Nurkic, C 4.27
5 Aron Baynes, C 4.18
6 Hassan Whiteside, C 3.75



No argument about Nurk's impact on the defensive end, however you can't discount his negative effects on the offensive end thus-far. DRPM is only half the story, although it was an important story for Portland.


ORPM: CJ 1.94....Nurkic -2.43
DRPM: CJ -1.76....Nurkic 4.27
RPM (ORPM + DRPM): CJ 0.18....Nurkic 1.84
RPM Wins: CJ 5.56....Nurkic 5.92

"RPM Wins" provide an estimate of the number of wins each player has contributed to his team's win total on the season. RPM Wins include the player's Real Plus-Minus and his number of possessions played.


pretty significant advantage for Nurkic in RPM, even though his offensive RPM is poor. The RPM wins are much closer but that's because CJ plays so many more possessions; averaging 10 minutes more then Nurk. I imagine part of that is the NBA small-ball evolution; I'd also estimate part of that differential is that Portland has Ed Davis and Nurk's backup while CJ's is Connaughton, and sometimes Napier. Davis is much better then either of those players



and of course, there are Nurk's C peers:

Anthony Davis - 27.5M/year
Andre Drummond - 27M/year
Hassan Whiteside - 25.5M/year
Steven Adams - 25M/year
Rudy Gobert - 25M/year


AD & Whiteside are not really his peer group (2nd contract, bigs peak late, etc). Gobert, Adams, Capela, Jokic, Embidd, Drummond are a better list based on age, etc. In the group I listed, you can make a pretty strong argument Nurkic is the weakest of that group at this time.


Davis and Whiteside are both on their extensions, just like the others and just like Nurkic will be. I know Whiteside was older when he got his money; he also was a 2nd round pick playing on his 2nd minimum contract. But he was RFA just like all the other when he signed his deal

as far as Nurkic vs Drummond-Adams-Gobert-Whiteside. The only one there definitely better then Nurk is Gobert. Nurkic and Adams have nearly identical RPM's and Nurkic's is better then Drummond and more then twice that of Whiteside. Obviously, Drummond is a premier rebounder but a lot of advanced metrics don't weight rebounding nearly as high as fans do. I'm not sure how NBA front offices weight rebounding value, but I'd bet big money they weight rim protection and defensive paint presence higher then raw rebounding, and in those areas Nurkic has big advantages over the other C's not named Gobert

so we're talking about a half dozen C's who have landed their extensions and are all making in the 25-28M/year range. Nurkic definitely belongs in that group, but we're talking about him 5-10M/year less?

about the only justification you can land on for that big a differential is durability, and when it comes to that, he doesn't appear any less durable then Gobert or Whiteside



I think Nurkic is a very important piece of the future, and I think he will continue to improve over the next couple of years. I don't think he's a max-guy now, although he might be on contract #2. Portland should be pro-active and try and set the market with Nurkic rather than waiting for someone like Capela to sign. I think 4/72 would have been fair market given where he is now during a normal market. I think he will sign for less than that... I am going to say he signs for 3/48 (intentionally shorter deal) which puts him in a position to re-up at age 26 at the peak of his prime the same year Dame and CJ are scheduled to re-up.

I have every belief that Nurk will earn that max deal for his 2nd contract.


we'll see, but if the Blazers offer him 16M a year I'd imagine they will have a disgruntled Nurkic on their hands. Considering his impact on Portland, offering him 10M a year less then C's he's played against and performed well against could easily be viewed as insulting by Nurk and his agent. For instance, he has dominated Steven Adams most of the time when they have been on the floor together, and has looked like the better C
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Re: Forget the "Market"; What is Nurkic's Value? 

Post#18 » by DaVoiceMaster » Sun Apr 1, 2018 6:35 pm

He's gonna get north of $20 million, probably closer to $23 million. Hopefully Dame rubs off on him a bit so he doesn't ask for the moon. The Blazers cannot let him go. The Blazers know it, Nurkic knows it, and you better believe his agent knows it.
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Re: Forget the "Market"; What is Nurkic's Value? 

Post#19 » by Blazinaway » Sun Apr 1, 2018 7:28 pm

DaVoiceMaster wrote:He's gonna get north of $20 million, probably closer to $23 million. Hopefully Dame rubs off on him a bit so he doesn't ask for the moon. The Blazers cannot let him go. The Blazers know it, Nurkic knows it, and you better believe his agent knows it.

Because of he improved play post AS break I have upped my number to 20 mil per at a minimum, I'd be happy with a 4 yr 90 mil deal - 22.5 mil per
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Re: Forget the "Market"; What is Nurkic's Value? 

Post#20 » by DaVoiceMaster » Mon Apr 2, 2018 7:00 am

I don't wanna bother with the math, that's Wiz's thing, but I'm guessing he'll get right around $100 for 4 years, starting at around $23 million with annual increases. Maybe he'd be a good contract to include incentives to make his money.... average 10 rebounds per game, block 2 shots per game, no bonehead plays, etc.
DaVoiceMaster
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12/27/2017 - 01/03/2018

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