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Forget the "Market"; What is Nurkic's Value?

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Re: Forget the "Market"; What is Nurkic's Value? 

Post#61 » by 7-12-52 » Fri Apr 20, 2018 8:10 pm

Pattycakes wrote:I would be extremely careful about what we commit ourselves to with Nurk for the sole reason that I could see that 5 year old attitude of his quickly become a headache if it goes south at all. I would go 3 years/60 and not a penny more.


You really think that 3 years/60 is being "extremely careful?"
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Re: Forget the "Market"; What is Nurkic's Value? 

Post#62 » by 7-12-52 » Fri Apr 20, 2018 8:16 pm

Wizenheimer wrote:
Village Idiot wrote:His inability to play more than 30 minutes a game


how do you figure he's unable to play 30 minutes a game? That sure seems like a coaching decision. Maybe it's a good decision, maybe it's not; but there have been quite a few times this season when the Blazers have failed miserably in stretches of games where Nurkic could have prevented that from happening. Portland's small ball lineups have looked really bad at time this season

******************************************************************
we do know that Dame is the engine that gets Nurkic going on offense and for sure, Dame can't breathe in this series and it's had a big impact on what Nurkic has done

********************************************************************

I've been a proponent of re-signing Nurkic to a contract somewhat comparable to his peers like Adams, Drummond, and Gobert. But watching this team over the last 16 games, I have to wonder at what level his contract would just be throwing good money after bad. Just re-signing Nurkic to a significant contract without some major changes to the roster simply adds expense without elevating the team's ceiling

**********************************************************************

on the other hand for all the talk abut how Nurkic is only worth 8.5-13M:

PER: CJ 17.0....Turner 9.9....Nurkic 19.2
TS%: CJ .536....Turner .520....Nurkic .528
FT Rate: CJ .166....Turner .185....Nurkic .287
winshares/48: CJ .108....Turner .061....Nurkic .108
box plus/minus: CJ +0.4....Turner -1.8....Nurkic +0.3
real plus/minus: CJ -0.21....Turner -3.49....Nurkic +1.91
real plus/minus wins: CJ 5.38....Turner -0.47....Nurkic 6.67
value over replacement: CJ 1.8....Turner 0.1....Nurkic 1.7 (adjusted for minutes)

future annual salary: CJ 27.6M....Turner 18.2M....Nurkic 12M (really?)


CJ and Turner should be used as evidence that Olshey is a fool and should be fired... not to justify overpaying other players too. The Blazers have a borderline allstar as our franchise player and have to overpay free agents to come here. We consistently get less for our money than the teams we go against and it has to stop.

How do we ever build around Dame when we have to pay above market value for every single piece we put around him? It can't continue this way.
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Re: Forget the "Market"; What is Nurkic's Value? 

Post#63 » by nedleeds » Sat Apr 21, 2018 1:00 am

Let him walk and develop Collins. Sign a 1 year back up. No sense compounding cap woes with more overpaid players who don't help vs. good teams. Why can't Collins become Steven Adams or Capella? He's athletic, can get stronger, has decent lateral movement and a not broken jumper.
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Re: Forget the "Market"; What is Nurkic's Value? 

Post#64 » by Unbiased hater » Sat Apr 21, 2018 5:17 am

Collins is skinny and i dont see him as physicaly strong player inside in his his prime . I see him as Porzingis or as Dirk in his prime so he can play 4 and then go at 5 for some time during the game but dont see him as a fulltime center until he gets old and slow down so he cannot play at 4 anymore.
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Re: Forget the "Market"; What is Nurkic's Value? 

Post#65 » by Dzon Dilindzer » Sat Apr 21, 2018 9:39 am

nedleeds wrote:Let him walk and develop Collins. Sign a 1 year back up. No sense compounding cap woes with more overpaid players who don't help vs. good teams. Why can't Collins become Steven Adams or Capella? He's athletic, can get stronger, has decent lateral movement and a not broken jumper.

why not develop Nurkic-Collins frontcourt and if things dont work out, well, you can move Nurkic or Collins, depending on who is better at that time, has a bigger upsied...

they barely played together, cause Ed Davis-Collins frontcourt from the bench worked fine

letting or trading Nurkic would be stupid, without knowing if Nurkic-Collins frontcourt can work
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Re: Forget the "Market"; What is Nurkic's Value? 

Post#66 » by Dzon Dilindzer » Sat Apr 21, 2018 9:48 am

Myth wrote:I don't necessarily disagree with you, but nothing you said changes anything I said. So let me ask you this, how much do you think Nurkic should get paid?

Nurkic is 3rd best and most important player on this team (Wiz even made a case for him to be a 2nd most importand player on the team) and 3rd highest paid player on this team is Evan Turner 4/70

Nurkic shouldnt get less than him and yes, you can talk about current market, about market when big contracts were thrown all around the league, but the fact remains hes better and more important than ET and therefore deserves more money than him

Wiz made the case for him to get contracts like Gobert, Adams, Drummond etc, but I wont go that far, so Id say he shouldnt get less than 4/80, but I could see it go to 4/90, so somewhere in between
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Re: Forget the "Market"; What is Nurkic's Value? 

Post#67 » by nedleeds » Sat Apr 21, 2018 1:14 pm

Dzon Dilindzer wrote:
nedleeds wrote:Let him walk and develop Collins. Sign a 1 year back up. No sense compounding cap woes with more overpaid players who don't help vs. good teams. Why can't Collins become Steven Adams or Capella? He's athletic, can get stronger, has decent lateral movement and a not broken jumper.

why not develop Nurkic-Collins frontcourt and if things dont work out, well, you can move Nurkic or Collins, depending on who is better at that time, has a bigger upsied...

they barely played together, cause Ed Davis-Collins frontcourt from the bench worked fine

letting or trading Nurkic would be stupid, without knowing if Nurkic-Collins frontcourt can work

Because I don't think 15-20 million a year rotation center contracts are positive assets. You'd have to attach an asset. If Nurk takes $9 million great.
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Re: Forget the "Market"; What is Nurkic's Value? 

Post#68 » by Blazers98 » Sat Apr 21, 2018 10:15 pm

We are stuck on this treadmill for a number of years unless we role the dice, trade CJ, and hit the jackpot. I would hope that we can negotiate a 3 year deal with Nurk. That way Lillard, CJ, and Nurk all come off the books at the same time. I think the flexibility is worth it. Nurk is temperamental and one has to wonder if giving him 10 million (or whatever amount you personally believe it to be) more a year over what other teams will give him is really worth it. Happy Nurk or sullen Nurk, does it really affect the treadmill? Let's say it does dramatically affect the team and we miss the playoffs and the one and done part of the treadmill program. Is that a bad thing? If I'm Olshey and I want the treadmill I built to run somewhat smoothly, I recommend to PA to pay the man 3/60 mil or 3/70 mil and continue running the one and done program. We will see if PA and Lillard have other ideas.
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Re: Forget the "Market"; What is Nurkic's Value? 

Post#69 » by Myth » Sat Apr 21, 2018 10:47 pm

Dzon Dilindzer wrote:
Myth wrote:I don't necessarily disagree with you, but nothing you said changes anything I said. So let me ask you this, how much do you think Nurkic should get paid?

Nurkic is 3rd best and most important player on this team (Wiz even made a case for him to be a 2nd most importand player on the team) and 3rd highest paid player on this team is Evan Turner 4/70

Nurkic shouldnt get less than him and yes, you can talk about current market, about market when big contracts were thrown all around the league, but the fact remains hes better and more important than ET and therefore deserves more money than him

Wiz made the case for him to get contracts like Gobert, Adams, Drummond etc, but I wont go that far, so Id say he shouldnt get less than 4/80, but I could see it go to 4/90, so somewhere in between

Ok, so we are not too far off in value from one another. I'm crossing my fingers for less than $20M per year, would be easily accepting of right at $20M per year, and I'd be a little disappointed at more than $20M per year but can still ultimately accept it, which is where you have him slated.
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Re: Forget the "Market"; What is Nurkic's Value? 

Post#70 » by Wizenheimer » Sun Apr 22, 2018 12:11 am

Dzon Dilindzer wrote:Wiz made the case for him to get contracts like Gobert, Adams, Drummond etc, but I wont go that far, so Id say he shouldnt get less than 4/80, but I could see it go to 4/90, so somewhere in between


I'll correct you there

the case I made, using the 25-27M salaries of several other young C's is that there's a huge gap between what the market will be this one summer and what Nurkic's salary should be based upon peers. The one-time market says 15M.... comparable salaries say 25M. Seems like a good compromise would be around 20M, maybe a shade under because of Portland's tax situation but that sure isn't Nurk's fault
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Re: Forget the "Market"; What is Nurkic's Value? 

Post#71 » by GreenRiddler » Sun Apr 22, 2018 4:10 am

I don't see Gobert or Adams doing much better in this series than Nurk tbh. They aren't doing to hot themselves. I guess I just have the googly eyes for the Pelicans bigs in AD and Cousins.
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Re: Forget the "Market"; What is Nurkic's Value? 

Post#72 » by red_power » Sun Apr 22, 2018 7:27 am

We can only wondering what Gobert or Adams or Drummond would have done here.
But when you got demolished in your first playoffs series and therefore didn't deserve to see much playing time that should definitely hurt you market value.
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Re: Forget the "Market"; What is Nurkic's Value? 

Post#73 » by Wizenheimer » Sun Apr 22, 2018 3:21 pm

red_power wrote:We can only wondering what Gobert or Adams or Drummond would have done here.
But when you got demolished in your first playoffs series and therefore didn't deserve to see much playing time that should definitely hurt you market value.


I'm sorry, but I think that's off-base

Blazer team playoff numbers for rotation players:

PER:

Jusuf Nurkic 22.5
Al-Farouq Aminu 20.7
C.J. McCollum 18.9
Maurice Harkless 12.6
Zach Collins 11.4
Damian Lillard 9.1
Pat Connaughton 8.9
Evan Turner 8.0
Ed Davis 6.1

winshares/48:

Jusuf Nurkic .159
Al-Farouq Aminu .152
C.J. McCollum .110
Maurice Harkless .092
Pat Connaughton .053
Zach Collins .016
Ed Davis -0.030
Evan Turner -0.057
Damian Lillard -0.062

offensive box +/-:

Al-Farouq Aminu 3.0
C.J. McCollum 2.1
Maurice Harkless -0.3
Pat Connaughton -1.3
Jusuf Nurkic -1.5
Zach Collins -2.7
Damian Lillard -4.2
Evan Turner -5.1
Ed Davis -11.4

defensive box +/-:

Jusuf Nurkic 3.8
Shabazz Napier 1.6
Zach Collins 1.5
Evan Turner 1.0
Al-Farouq Aminu 0.3
Maurice Harkless 0.3
Pat Connaughton -0.5
Damian Lillard -0.5
C.J. McCollum -1.7
Ed Davis -2.4

box +/-:

Al-Farouq Aminu 3.4
Jusuf Nurkic 2.3
C.J. McCollum 0.3
Maurice Harkless 0.0
Zach Collins -1.3
Pat Connaughton -1.7
Evan Turner -4.1
Meyers Leonard -4.4
Damian Lillard -4.7
Ed Davis -13.8

per36, he averaged 18pts - 12rebs - 2stls - 2blks with only 1 turnover

what about all that screams "didn't deserve to see much playing time"

you're assuming he didn't play as much because he was bad, but the numbers and the eye test don't support that. My assumption is that a big part of the reason he didn't play as much as the regular season is that Stotts doesn't really know how to get a big man with an inside presence fully involved in his offense; another reason is that Dame was MIA and no other Blazer ball-handler was capable of consistently setting up Nurkic.
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Re: Forget the "Market"; What is Nurkic's Value? 

Post#74 » by Norm2953 » Sun Apr 22, 2018 4:29 pm

Nurk is going to get paid, likely by Portland.

What we need to add some pieces to apply some defensive pressure on the ball which is why one of
Dame/CJ is likely going to go. I tend to buy the notion that we're much like the GSW when they
had Monta Ellis and Steph back in 2011 and they turned things around when they moved Ellis and
drafted Klay Thompson. Get those players who are athletic enough to apply defensive pressure
and also add a 94 foot open court game to this roster and we could be okay for Nurk is good
enough to protect the rim. At least coming off a series getting swept, with AD getting over on
him, his agent has no leverage in seeking a max deal for if Nurk gets a max deal, how much
should AD get?
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Re: Forget the "Market"; What is Nurkic's Value? 

Post#75 » by Dzon Dilindzer » Mon Apr 23, 2018 2:58 pm

Youā€™d like to get a long-term extension here?

Yes. Definitely. I find my home here, but definitely need to agree both sides. Like I said, I do my part on the court, and my agent and the people here are going to figure out the rest ā€” or not.

the way Nurk ended this sentence seems pretty interesting to me
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Re: Forget the "Market"; What is Nurkic's Value? 

Post#76 » by Epicurus » Mon Apr 23, 2018 7:06 pm

WHile Nurkic did pretty well this playoff series, a team just can't have their 7fter in the middle only shoot .487 (lower for the first three games). Much pressure could have been removed from the guards, if Nurkic just finished like a decent bigman. Same problem throughout the season--poor overall shooting from him. Even worse, his comparatively low fg% is not even consistent--high one game and quite low for two. He has been an offensive teaser at best. That some wish for more to go through him seem to me to place too much trust in a teaser. Yes, one game if may work well, but what about the others. His offensive variance is simply too high.

The question is can he have more high (60%) to low (around 45%) for the shots he gets (and thus allowed even more through the gained confidence of the ball handlers and coaches) next season and for however long the new contract. If yes, then resign him. But if there is an DNA-like cause of this variance, then run away from him, despite his fine contributions to the defense.
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Re: Forget the "Market"; What is Nurkic's Value? 

Post#77 » by Rocketsbaby » Mon Apr 23, 2018 9:22 pm

Some of you seem to have forgotten how bad the Blazers were before they got Nurkic.
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Re: Forget the "Market"; What is Nurkic's Value? 

Post#78 » by Epicurus » Sun Apr 29, 2018 9:57 pm

Didn't Harkless' contract include a bonus for making 40% of his threes two years ago (or something like that)? Relevant here is if Nurkic is resigned, then compensation should be related to making 60% (0r whatever) of shots in the lower lane.
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Re: Forget the "Market"; What is Nurkic's Value? 

Post#79 » by DusterBuster » Sun Apr 29, 2018 10:00 pm

Epicurus wrote:Didn't Harkless' contract include a bonus for making 40% of his threes two years ago (or something like that)? Relevant here is if Nurkic is resigned, then compensation should be related to making 60% (0r whatever) of shots in the lower lane.


Blazers seem to like to add in those incentives, so I wouldn't be shocked to see something along those lines.
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Re: Forget the "Market"; What is Nurkic's Value? 

Post#80 » by DusterBuster » Sun Apr 29, 2018 10:01 pm

Rocketsbaby wrote:Some of you seem to have forgotten how bad the Blazers were before they got Nurkic.


Some here wouldnt mind the Blazers getting back on that level.
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