Forget the "Market"; What is Nurkic's Value?
Posted: Sat Mar 31, 2018 6:33 pm
we know the refrain about the limited league-wide cap-space this summer and how that could impact Nurkic's next contract if Portland played hardball
but most teams simply don't play hardball with their 'prized' rookie scale player when they re-sign them to 2nd contracts. It's just not good politics and under Paul Allen, the Blazers have a long history of rewarding their players in this situation. Their M.O. has to been to pay for the perceived value rather then pay the minimum the market would dictate. Portland did that with Dame, although it's worth noting again (and again) that Dame actually accepted less money in order to give the Blazers a little more space to work with (and for damn sure Paul Allen knows that Dame did that so keep it in mind the next time someone suggests Portland should shop Dame)
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and the Blazers didn't let the market dictate the contract they gave to CJ. They gave him a near-max of 26.5M/year and it's unlikely any team would have given CJ an offer sheet like that last summer.
and in many ways, CJ's contract can be held up as a template for what Nurkic should get. Nurk is going to be one of Portland's 'big-3'. And I think a strong argument can be made that Nurkic has had a much bigger positive impact for Portland then CJ has. For instance, last season was CJ's best season. His numbers are such that you have to wonder if what he did was over his head and won't be repeated. And in his 'best' season, the Blazers were a .500 team; But even that is deceptive because Portland's record was 23-32 when Nurk played his first game as a Blazer. We all saw Nurkic fever and how that seemed to change the team direction
now, before CJ fans say I'm just bashing CJ again, I want to make clear I'm talking about Nurkic and the impact he's had, not so much about CJ. Portland was 23-32 and Dame was the leader of that team
and then, there is this season. CJ has fallen off last years production and efficiency, but Portland is 9 games over .500. (I have mistakenly been saying they were 17 or 18 games over .500 but that was just dumb math on my part)
so what is the difference between last season and this season? Where is the most notable change? That's a rhetorical question of course because I think we all know the biggest change to Portland's fortunes, and that's on the defensive side of the ball. Last year, Portland ranked 24th; this season they rank 7th. And their offense has even dropped a little from last season to this.
obviously, there's a lot of factors at work here, not just the presence of Nurkic
* I think Dame has had his best season as a pro and to me, it seems significantly better. He spent most of the season playing like a top-5 player. And remarkably, his improvement on defense has been significant. Dame is the unquestioned leader of this Blazer team and it's been a long time since the Blazers have had a leader this worthy
* having a healthy Ed Davis has made a huge difference. The quality of his production, effort, and hustle make the 2nd unit formidable. Another thing he has reportedly done is mentor and push Zach Collins, and that Davis/Collins pairing has really made the Blazer front court rotation a strength. And I won't fail to note that Davis and Collins replacing about a 1000 minutes that Meyers played last season has been a big positive for Portland. Sorry Meyers...not really
* having Harkless and Aminu combine for nearly 40% shooting from three has been huge as well
* taking the ball out of Turner's hands and putting it in Napier's has had a notable impact.
* health; sure, I've pointed at this plenty, and it has been a huge factor all year, but at a certain point, you have to give credit to the durability of Blazer players. Jimmy Butler is a much better player then CJ, but CJ is playing right now and Butler isn't. I doubt that the Blazer scouting department found some secret formula to predict durability, but we all know that just pure luck can be one of the biggest factors for a team's success
********************************************************
anyway, back to defense and Nurk's impact. He leads the team in every defensive metric, usually by a significant margin. Not only that, his DRPM stacks up against the rest of the NBA...
for Centers:
1 Rudy Gobert 5.11
2 Jusuf Nurkic 4.27
3 Aron Baynes 4.18
4 Hassan Whiteside 3.75
5 Joel Embiid 3.72
and for all players:
1 Rudy Gobert, C 5.11
2 David West, PF 4.56
3 Andre Roberson, SG 4.55
4 Jusuf Nurkic, C 4.27
5 Aron Baynes, C 4.18
6 Hassan Whiteside, C 3.75
and it's important to note that West averages less then 14 minutes and Baynes averages 18
many of us Blazer fans have been fantasizing for years about how Portland would look with a real rim protector and a defensive presence in the paint, at least since the Oden experiment went bust. We even had a fairly recent example of how much a defensive big man could impact the team. Portland had Dame-Matthews-Batum-Aldridge with JJ Hickson as the starting C. They won 33 games. The next season, they 'traded' Hickson for Robin Lopez and won 54 games and a playoff series
************************************************
so then, back to measuring Nurk's impact and setting his contract value accordingly. We know his impact on the defense has been huge and we have ample reason to believe Portland improved defense has radically changed Portland's prospects.
we also can see that Nurk really seems to be making significant strides on offense as the season has progressed. About 6 weeks ago, Nurk's PER was 15.4; look at team ranking now:
Damian Lillard 24.8
Jusuf Nurkic 19.1
C.J. McCollum 17.4
Ed Davis 15.8
Shabazz Napier 14.7
Maurice Harkless 12.6
Al-Farouq Aminu 12.3
Evan Turner 9.7
Pat Connaughton 9.2
Zach Collins 8.1
CJ will be making 27.6M/year over the next 3 years and him playing great or just playing good doesn't seem to steer Portland in a notable direction. Nurk does seem to steer the team because of his defense; meanwhile CJ ranks last among Blazer rotation players in every defensive metric
and of course, there are Nurk's C peers:
Anthony Davis - 27.5M/year
Andre Drummond - 27M/year
Hassan Whiteside - 25.5M/year
Steven Adams - 25M/year
Rudy Gobert - 25M/year
for a while there, people were talking about Nurk only getting 10-15M/year. I always thought that low end was absurd. Then, for a while it was 15-18M a year. Now people seem to be setting the floor in the 18-20M range. By rights, he probably should be making as much as CJ but that does loop back around to that number being wildly divorced from the cap-space market.
so where is that justifiable compromise between market and actual value-based impact? The median between what other young C's are getting and what Portland can afford?
to me, the 'fair' amount would be around 25M. The 'market amount would probably be in the 18 range, but that just seems only justified ain a hardball world and I'm skeptical the Blazers will go that direction, especially after the meeting Dame had with Paul Allen
but most teams simply don't play hardball with their 'prized' rookie scale player when they re-sign them to 2nd contracts. It's just not good politics and under Paul Allen, the Blazers have a long history of rewarding their players in this situation. Their M.O. has to been to pay for the perceived value rather then pay the minimum the market would dictate. Portland did that with Dame, although it's worth noting again (and again) that Dame actually accepted less money in order to give the Blazers a little more space to work with (and for damn sure Paul Allen knows that Dame did that so keep it in mind the next time someone suggests Portland should shop Dame)
***************************************
and the Blazers didn't let the market dictate the contract they gave to CJ. They gave him a near-max of 26.5M/year and it's unlikely any team would have given CJ an offer sheet like that last summer.
and in many ways, CJ's contract can be held up as a template for what Nurkic should get. Nurk is going to be one of Portland's 'big-3'. And I think a strong argument can be made that Nurkic has had a much bigger positive impact for Portland then CJ has. For instance, last season was CJ's best season. His numbers are such that you have to wonder if what he did was over his head and won't be repeated. And in his 'best' season, the Blazers were a .500 team; But even that is deceptive because Portland's record was 23-32 when Nurk played his first game as a Blazer. We all saw Nurkic fever and how that seemed to change the team direction
now, before CJ fans say I'm just bashing CJ again, I want to make clear I'm talking about Nurkic and the impact he's had, not so much about CJ. Portland was 23-32 and Dame was the leader of that team
and then, there is this season. CJ has fallen off last years production and efficiency, but Portland is 9 games over .500. (I have mistakenly been saying they were 17 or 18 games over .500 but that was just dumb math on my part)
so what is the difference between last season and this season? Where is the most notable change? That's a rhetorical question of course because I think we all know the biggest change to Portland's fortunes, and that's on the defensive side of the ball. Last year, Portland ranked 24th; this season they rank 7th. And their offense has even dropped a little from last season to this.
obviously, there's a lot of factors at work here, not just the presence of Nurkic
* I think Dame has had his best season as a pro and to me, it seems significantly better. He spent most of the season playing like a top-5 player. And remarkably, his improvement on defense has been significant. Dame is the unquestioned leader of this Blazer team and it's been a long time since the Blazers have had a leader this worthy
* having a healthy Ed Davis has made a huge difference. The quality of his production, effort, and hustle make the 2nd unit formidable. Another thing he has reportedly done is mentor and push Zach Collins, and that Davis/Collins pairing has really made the Blazer front court rotation a strength. And I won't fail to note that Davis and Collins replacing about a 1000 minutes that Meyers played last season has been a big positive for Portland. Sorry Meyers...not really
* having Harkless and Aminu combine for nearly 40% shooting from three has been huge as well
* taking the ball out of Turner's hands and putting it in Napier's has had a notable impact.
* health; sure, I've pointed at this plenty, and it has been a huge factor all year, but at a certain point, you have to give credit to the durability of Blazer players. Jimmy Butler is a much better player then CJ, but CJ is playing right now and Butler isn't. I doubt that the Blazer scouting department found some secret formula to predict durability, but we all know that just pure luck can be one of the biggest factors for a team's success
********************************************************
anyway, back to defense and Nurk's impact. He leads the team in every defensive metric, usually by a significant margin. Not only that, his DRPM stacks up against the rest of the NBA...
for Centers:
1 Rudy Gobert 5.11
2 Jusuf Nurkic 4.27
3 Aron Baynes 4.18
4 Hassan Whiteside 3.75
5 Joel Embiid 3.72
and for all players:
1 Rudy Gobert, C 5.11
2 David West, PF 4.56
3 Andre Roberson, SG 4.55
4 Jusuf Nurkic, C 4.27
5 Aron Baynes, C 4.18
6 Hassan Whiteside, C 3.75
and it's important to note that West averages less then 14 minutes and Baynes averages 18
many of us Blazer fans have been fantasizing for years about how Portland would look with a real rim protector and a defensive presence in the paint, at least since the Oden experiment went bust. We even had a fairly recent example of how much a defensive big man could impact the team. Portland had Dame-Matthews-Batum-Aldridge with JJ Hickson as the starting C. They won 33 games. The next season, they 'traded' Hickson for Robin Lopez and won 54 games and a playoff series
************************************************
so then, back to measuring Nurk's impact and setting his contract value accordingly. We know his impact on the defense has been huge and we have ample reason to believe Portland improved defense has radically changed Portland's prospects.
we also can see that Nurk really seems to be making significant strides on offense as the season has progressed. About 6 weeks ago, Nurk's PER was 15.4; look at team ranking now:
Damian Lillard 24.8
Jusuf Nurkic 19.1
C.J. McCollum 17.4
Ed Davis 15.8
Shabazz Napier 14.7
Maurice Harkless 12.6
Al-Farouq Aminu 12.3
Evan Turner 9.7
Pat Connaughton 9.2
Zach Collins 8.1
CJ will be making 27.6M/year over the next 3 years and him playing great or just playing good doesn't seem to steer Portland in a notable direction. Nurk does seem to steer the team because of his defense; meanwhile CJ ranks last among Blazer rotation players in every defensive metric
and of course, there are Nurk's C peers:
Anthony Davis - 27.5M/year
Andre Drummond - 27M/year
Hassan Whiteside - 25.5M/year
Steven Adams - 25M/year
Rudy Gobert - 25M/year
for a while there, people were talking about Nurk only getting 10-15M/year. I always thought that low end was absurd. Then, for a while it was 15-18M a year. Now people seem to be setting the floor in the 18-20M range. By rights, he probably should be making as much as CJ but that does loop back around to that number being wildly divorced from the cap-space market.
so where is that justifiable compromise between market and actual value-based impact? The median between what other young C's are getting and what Portland can afford?
to me, the 'fair' amount would be around 25M. The 'market amount would probably be in the 18 range, but that just seems only justified ain a hardball world and I'm skeptical the Blazers will go that direction, especially after the meeting Dame had with Paul Allen