Overall Blazer playoff thread

[Brandon-Clyde]

I will also create individual game threads but this thread is for general Blazer playoff comments.

GAME DATE MATCHUP
Game 1 Sat. April 14 Pelicans at Blazers, 7:30 (ESPN)
Game 2 Tue. April 17 Pelicans at Blazers, 7:30 (TNT)
Game 3 Thu. April 19 Blazers at Pelicans, 6:00pm (NBA TV)
Game 4 Sat. April 21 Blazers at Pelicans, 2:00pm (TNT)
Game 5* Tue. April 24 Pelicans at Blazers, TBD
Game 6* Thu. April 26 Blazers at Pelicans, TBD
Game 7* Sat. April 28 Pelicans at Blazers, TBD
* if necessary

[Wizenheimer]

maybe it should be Portland vs New Orleans?

no matter I guess

Dame-CJ vs Rondo-Holiday will be really interesting. An edge to Portland but it might not be as large as we hope

the more interesting matchup is Davis-Mirotic-Okafor vs Nurkic-Davis-Aminu-Collins. The Pelicans mix and match a lot while the Blazers platoon. Mirotic's addition has been pretty big for N.O. after Cousins went down. He and Davis have good synergy and is a big reason why the Pelicans didn't fall off after the Cousins injury like the Wolves did after Butler's injury

Blazers do have a good counter defensively to Mirotic with Aminu & Collins. But when the Pelicans mix and match, I worry about Collins guarding Davis and about Nurkic guarding Davis when Davis slides to C. I see a lot of future fouls there

Wild card for Pelicans? How about E'Twaun Moore? He's had a good year and is a tough cover.

Wild Card for Blazers? the health of Harkless

[DusterBuster]

I don't really have a feeling one way or another how this series may go.

Hottest of hot takes: If the Blazers shot is falling, they'll be fine. If it's not, it'll be a long (or short) series.

[Norm2953]

LIkely a 7 game series.

[Wizenheimer]

since Harkless might not even be available for this series, maybe I should amend my Blazer wild card pick

how about which CJ will Portland get? Will it be more of the 'team-player-good-shooting-dribble-less' CJ? Or just more of the 'between-the-legs-dribble-crazy-tunnel-vision-bad-efficiency-high-usage CJ. One can help the team win, the other paves the way to losses

[Norm2953]

I think the key match up in this series will be Rajon Rondo vs CJ. NBA playoff teams will focus on taking
away guys like CJ for Dame and Anthony Davis will get their points. The third and fourth options for
both teams so guys like Moore and Mirotic for the Pelicans along with Aminu and Turner will be key.

[Pattycakes]

Both teams play their best, or close to it & its hard to see Portland lose this. Blazers do the "play down to their opponent" crap shoot and it's anyone's guess.

[DusterBuster]

Mirotic is going to be an x-factor. The Blazers really haven't played the Pelicans with him. The one game the Blazers played the Pelicans and Mirotic was available, he was just coming back from an injury or something and came off the bench for a pretty ineffectual 20 minutes.

How the Blazers adjust and cover him will probably decide this series. If he's bombing from 3 and pulling the defense out of the paint for AD, they could take the series. If he's inconsistent throughout the series, Portland should be able to take the series.

I don't think there's a lot to extrapolate from the regular season series between both teams because of how the Pelicans have had relatively different rosters each time the Blazers have played them. In Game 1 where the Blazers won, AD was out for practically the whole game with an early knee injury. Game 2 where the Pelicans won, AD didn't play at all and the Blazers were struggling for an identity, Aminu and Harkless were coming off the bench and Pat and Vonleh were starting in their place. Game 3 the Pelicans won, they were totally healthy and the Blazers were still struggling for an identity when they were doing that funky 3 guard starting lineup with Shabazz at PG and CJ at SF. Game 4 the Blazers won while fully healthy and rolling like they have been to end the season, the Pelicans were pretty much all healthy minus-Cousins and Mirotic was available and playing but coming back from some minor injury.

That's a long way to say, I have no idea what's going to happen.

[zzaj]

Blazers are going to have to find ways to turn AD into a contested jumpshooter and to keep him out of the paint on the defensive end. That worries me when Davis plays Center...Nurkic doesn't have enough gravity on the perimeter to keep Davis from cheating and helping out on drives. Nurkic has to play in the paint to be effective.

When Davis plays PF, we may see a lot of open looks for Aminu and Collins in the corners. I don't think either one of those players has gravity on the perimeter either. Whether or not those open looks fall could actually end up being a big story line in this series.

For whatever reasons, Portland seems to have problems with stretch PFs. That needs to be solved pronto, otherwise Mirotic will kill the Blazers from 3pt land. I wish the Blazers could have ended up with him.

Force Rondo to run around screens for CJ.

If the Blazers play 4 pass basketball and force defensive rotations, there will be a lot of open looks at the basket against the Pelicans.

Holiday is incredibly underrated in general. I expect him to have steady, good games all series long.

[Matt800]

I think Por can win this series. A healthy Harkless would help but Por just beat NOP recently without Harkless. That game also had horrible schooting from Aminu, and CJ. If Por can win in that circumstance then I think they are looking pretty good.

AD is great, but his build with his active style of play also worries me that he's more likely to get hurt than most. It wouldn't surprise me if he isn't 100% for the whole series, especially going up against Por's aggressive defenders and rebounders.

[monopoman]

I think AD has to play out of his mind in this series to win it. We have the more talented team overall, and I think our team has a better overall construction.

Home court advantage will be a nice bonus for the Blazers. Winning games in Portland is always pretty tough for the road team.

[GreenRiddler]

It'll be interesting to see how Mirotic does, he is an up and down shooter, before this year he was a gunner that had very bad 3 point shooting numbers, then with Chi having nothing to play for his shooting percentage skyrocketed. After he got traded he went back to his old ways shooting 33% with the Pelicans and scoring as much as he shoots overall. He picked it up the past 5 games.

However we are one of the best 3 point defenses and I believe we offer the least amount of threes for our opponents so he won't get them easy. Aminu is very good on closeouts. I think that is why he was so good to start the year, cause he would go up against real bigs for open 3s.

Rondo is another guy I can't quite figure out, hsi career in all intents and purposes should be over, but he has a lot of targets in AD and shooters to give it to, but he is just as terrible as he has been scoring or runnng the PnR. We can also hack a shaq him late in the 2nd qrt and when they are in the bonus. Or just leave him open late in games and let our great help side defenders in Aminu Turner and Nurk lurk off Rondo.

Turner needs to contribute and take advantage of his size. Bazz has to play like he has for most of the year and Aminu needs to make his open 3s. I like it if w eturn this into a grind it out game. The pelicans have the least impressive homecourt out of all the other west teams, hopefully we take care of business at home and take one in games 3 and 4.

[Wizenheimer]

I think AD has to play out of his mind in this series to win it.

Davis averaged 28 points, 11 rebounds, and 3 blocks; his PER was 29, and he had a .612 TS%. His average game is elite. The Pelicans will be a load if Davis is just playing a little better then his season average. If he goes into the playoff mode many elite players do, look out

you can probably make the same argument for Dame that you are making for Davis. Portland won't win if Dame doesn't play real well

We have the more talented team overall, and I think our team has a better overall construction.

I'm not sure how you can conclude that. Portland won 49 games; Pelicans won 48. An 82 game season is an excellent gauge of team talent and construction. And the two teams split the season series 2-2 with each team winning on the other's court.

the most significant advantage Portland has is HCA. Portland was 4 wins better in their building then the Pelicans were in theirs. But HCA is a two edged sword. Blazers have to hold serve. If they lose one of the first two games the advantage flips to the Pelicans and the edge is bigger then the one Portland started with. The last time the Blazers had HCA, they lost game 1 and never recovered

[Wizenheimer]

However we are one of the best 3 point defenses and I believe we offer the least amount of threes for our opponents.

Blazers are 16th in opponent 3pt%; the Pelicans are 8th. Blazers are tied for 5th in opponent attempts/game but I'm not sure means they deny real well or not. I mean, Brooklyn led the league in opponent attempts but that wasn't because they were good at defense

[GreenRiddler]

However we are one of the best 3 point defenses and I believe we offer the least amount of threes for our opponents.

Blazers are 16th in opponent 3pt%; the Pelicans are 8th. Blazers are tied for 5th in opponent attempts/game but I'm not sure means they deny real well or not. I mean, Brooklyn led the league in opponent attempts but that wasn't because they were good at defense

That is surprising, I thought they were at least top 10, maybe I saw post-allstar break. Yeah certainly some teams are just so bad at the rim for example teams wouldn't bother with launching from outside, but I think it is more of us forcing teams to take long 2s instead of 3s, as our at the rim defense has been great all year.

[Wizenheimer]

However we are one of the best 3 point defenses and I believe we offer the least amount of threes for our opponents.

Blazers are 16th in opponent 3pt%; the Pelicans are 8th. Blazers are tied for 5th in opponent attempts/game but I'm not sure means they deny real well or not. I mean, Brooklyn led the league in opponent attempts but that wasn't because they were good at defense

That is surprising, I thought they were at least top 10, maybe I saw post-allstar break. Yeah certainly some teams are just so bad at the rim for example teams wouldn't bother with launching from outside, but I think it is more of us forcing teams to take long 2s instead of 3s, as our at the rim defense has been great all year.

I think you were onto something talking about 'closing out' on shooters. Aminu is good at it; so is Harkless, but he's probably going to be MIA. Portland's guard do a decent job in closing out too

as for long two's, the Blazers are 2nd in % of opponent shots taken in the 16' <3 zone:

Brooklyn Nets .146
Portland Trail Blazers* .136
Charlotte Hornets .134
Atlanta Hawks .132
Dallas Mavericks .130

(I'm not sure how good a stat that is considering the company)

but even though Portland may 'force' teams into long two's, they are really poor at defending those shots based upon opponent FG% in that zone:

26 New York Knicks .418
27 Dallas Mavericks .421
28 Miami Heat* .422
29 Portland Trail Blazers* .425
30 Brooklyn Nets .430

if it is actually a strategy, I'm not sure how well it's working

on the other hand, opponent FG% at the rim:

1 Portland Trail Blazers* .582
2 Toronto Raptors* .617
3 Miami Heat* .621
4 New York Knicks .630
5 Brooklyn Nets .632

looks like the Nurkic factor (and a healthy Davis factor)

but for some reason, it doesn't extend to the 3-10' zone:

24 Houston Rockets* .413
25 Portland Trail Blazers* .415
26 Phoenix Suns .417
27 Sacramento Kings .424
28 Atlanta Hawks .430

[Wizenheimer]

some motivational videos for the playoffs:

Lillard's game winner:

Watch on YouTube

The agony of defeat:

Watch on YouTube

and the thrill of victory:

Watch on YouTube

and of course, the pipedream:

Watch on YouTube

[The Sebastian Express]

That one big guy. He knew. He knew.

Also I'm super nervous for this series but hopeful!

[Rocketsbaby]

Hi guys can you please allow me to discuss Blazer basketball with you for the next two weeks? Jerome Kersey was one of my favorite players as a kid and I rooted hard for Drexler & Ducky in 1992.

I got really inebriated last night and my buddy is a huge Anthony Davis fan so I was telling him why the Blazers will win. Anyway, long story short we ended up betting on the outcome of the series and now I got $2,125 riding on you guys and I dont really have the money to lose like that so I need you to win. I haven't really been working the last few years but it's an old friend and I didnt want to look poor like I couldnt bet anymore.

I didnt realize that Harkless was injured still and now I'm a little nervous.

I really think Lillard is gonna merc them though

[Wizenheimer]

I see that 'The Onion' is posting to this forum again