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Rd 1 Game 1: Portland vs New Orleans 7:30pm SNW/ESPN

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Re: Rd 1 Game 1: Portland vs New Orleans 7:30pm SNW/ESPN 

Post#341 » by PTPaQ » Mon Apr 16, 2018 4:18 pm

Epicurus wrote:
PTPaQ wrote:Fellas, fellas...let's not over correct here. Yes, it appears we may have "lucked" into a bad match up, with strong defensive guards to limit Lillard/CJ (Playoff Rondo is a completely different animal) and nobody to bother AD at all (although I do admire Aminu's effort), but we know this is going to be the exception more than the rule. We came out flat, Gentry had those boys game planned up and strapped for action. Let's even this thing up and get one back in NO.
Came out flat? Actually the Blazers opened on a 8-0 run. For the first 8 minutes the Blazers were + 1. Trouble came with the second unit at 4:15 of the first then a 15-6 Pelican run. I am at a loss to understand your last sentence. Missed open shots does not necessarily indicate a fine defensive plan.


Everyone keeps saying "we just missed our shots", but it isn't that simple. Those shots were available by design as the Pels plan was get the ball out of Lillard/CJ's hands and bet on our supporting cast not being able to convert, and they won that bet. There was no reason for the Pelicans to have to adjust to a team that wasn't making them pay.

Maybe you are right about not "coming out flat", but just as a viewer I think the Pelicans stifling defense really limited our home crowd and energy the majority of the game.
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Re: Rd 1 Game 1: Portland vs New Orleans 7:30pm SNW/ESPN 

Post#342 » by Epicurus » Mon Apr 16, 2018 4:45 pm

I could swear that Lillard and McCollum missed the highest proportion of shots. Were they taking FGAs from places where they are known to miss in the past? Don't think so, but willing to be shown the shot chart. Yes, if a team overcommits defensively on one or two players, the others need to make them pay; and that wasn't done enough, except early with Turner's effective posting. But when a team gets 28 % of their shots wide open, but makes so few of them, I don't tend to praise the opponents' preparation.
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Re: Rd 1 Game 1: Portland vs New Orleans 7:30pm SNW/ESPN 

Post#343 » by Wizenheimer » Mon Apr 16, 2018 4:53 pm

PTPaQ wrote:
Epicurus wrote:
PTPaQ wrote:Fellas, fellas...let's not over correct here. Yes, it appears we may have "lucked" into a bad match up, with strong defensive guards to limit Lillard/CJ (Playoff Rondo is a completely different animal) and nobody to bother AD at all (although I do admire Aminu's effort), but we know this is going to be the exception more than the rule. We came out flat, Gentry had those boys game planned up and strapped for action. Let's even this thing up and get one back in NO.
Came out flat? Actually the Blazers opened on a 8-0 run. For the first 8 minutes the Blazers were + 1. Trouble came with the second unit at 4:15 of the first then a 15-6 Pelican run. I am at a loss to understand your last sentence. Missed open shots does not necessarily indicate a fine defensive plan.


Everyone keeps saying "we just missed our shots", but it isn't that simple. Those shots were available by design as the Pels plan was get the ball out of Lillard/CJ's hands and bet on our supporting cast not being able to convert, and they won that bet. There was no reason for the Pelicans to have to adjust to a team that wasn't making them pay.

Maybe you are right about not "coming out flat", but just as a viewer I think the Pelicans stifling defense really limited our home crowd and energy the majority of the game.


I finally watched the replay since I missed part of the game:

* I really didn't notice the Pelicans trying any harder to get the ball out of Dame's hands then team have all season. He was pretty tightly covered, as usual, and the Pelicans used opportunities to trap and double him. But that's what he faces almost every night

* I don't believe any teams is going to play major ball denial to CJ unless he burns them big-time for a couple of games. After 3 years of CJ and Dame together, I think the consensus by opponents is that Dame can beat you, but CJ can't. Dame can will the Blazers to wins and provide the production to lead the way. CJ's stats are more individual and he doesn't make any teammate better like Dame does, not on any consistent basis at least

* Dame and CJ averaged 38 FGA's over the season; they had 41 in that game. Dame had 7 assists and no turnovers. As I said, I didn't notice any major difference in the resistance facing Dame, except of course, the difference in regular season intensity vs playoff intensity

what the Pelicans have are two starting guards of the physical type that have quite often cause the Blazer duo problems. They have great length but also have excellent quickness, and that includes lateral quickness. I pointed at this factor well before Portland knew who their opponent would be. I was thinking that Utah and New Orleans would be the worst matchups for Portland out of the 6 possibles.

Dame and CJ are going to have to play better, make better decisions, and practice good shot selection. Less one-on-one basketball should be an adjustment

other factors:

* Turner played 6 minutes more then Nurkic; he more then doubled him is FGA's, 15-7; He had 4 turnovers vs 0 assists. Nurkic had 11 rebounds and 2 blocks in 24 minutes. Nurkic is a much better players then Turner and can take advantage of mismatches. That differential in minutes and shots was whacked out of proportion

in fact, in game usage rates:

Shabazz Napier 29.7
Evan Turner 26.2

Damian Lillard 23.6
C.J. McCollum 21.5
Zach Collins 17.1
Ed Davis 16.6
Pat Connaughton 16.6
Jusuf Nurkic 15.6

if New Orleans had a strategy, it may have been to rope-a-dope the Blazers into giving shots to the wrong people.

and of course, it may be just as simple as the fact that the Pelican's star had an elite-level game while Portland's star didn't
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Re: Rd 1 Game 1: Portland vs New Orleans 7:30pm SNW/ESPN 

Post#344 » by Epicurus » Mon Apr 16, 2018 5:33 pm

You are absolutely correct regarding Turner's turnovers, especially those ridiculous high passes. I would include also his poor decisions he made in the last minute. Yet as far as FGAs, I would have like if he got more, especially when he had a size mismatch near the basket. It was very effective at the beginning of the game. Why go away from it?
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Re: Rd 1 Game 1: Portland vs New Orleans 7:30pm SNW/ESPN 

Post#345 » by Agenda42 » Mon Apr 16, 2018 6:15 pm

Epicurus wrote:I could swear that Lillard and McCollum missed the highest proportion of shots. Were they taking FGAs from places where they are known to miss in the past? Don't think so, but willing to be shown the shot chart. Yes, if a team overcommits defensively on one or two players, the others need to make them pay; and that wasn't done enough, except early with Turner's effective posting. But when a team gets 28 % of their shots wide open, but makes so few of them, I don't tend to praise the opponents' preparation.


Kevin Pelton wrote:I was skeptical when Portland Trail Blazers players and coaches insisted after their Game 1 loss to the New Orleans Pelicans that they'd simply missed good shot attempts, but Second Spectrum tracking data backed up that belief. The Blazers' quantified shot quality (qSQ) of 54.9 percent -- the effective field-goal percentage we'd expect given the location and type of their shots and nearby defenders -- was the best any team had in Saturday's Game 1s.

http://www.espn.com/espn/now?nowId=21-40019426-4
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Re: Rd 1 Game 1: Portland vs New Orleans 7:30pm SNW/ESPN 

Post#346 » by d-train » Mon Apr 16, 2018 7:44 pm

I don't have any shot charts but the only shots I saw missed (other than by Lillard & CJ) were 3pt shots. Lillard in particular missed a lot of 2pt shot attempts. Some of those missed 2's were after he drove past his man and was defended by Davis. So, there was defensive rotation and a good offense should score. But, Blazers didn't.

I don't have any sympathy for a team that loses because it missed its 3's. That's called a bad team. Good team's force rotations and get easy baskets. Bad teams live and die by the 3.

Another thing I believe I saw was during our 4th quarter run, Davis was missing shots. Before that he was killing us. So, we have to make things harder for Davis.
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Re: Rd 1 Game 1: Portland vs New Orleans 7:30pm SNW/ESPN 

Post#347 » by Epicurus » Mon Apr 16, 2018 7:55 pm

Good teams in today's NBA make open threes (at least at a 40% rate or more).
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Re: Rd 1 Game 1: Portland vs New Orleans 7:30pm SNW/ESPN 

Post#348 » by d-train » Mon Apr 16, 2018 8:04 pm

Epicurus wrote:Good teams in today's NBA make open threes (at least at a 40% rate or more).

Good teams get easy baskets first. A good team doesn't settle for losing because they have a bad day at the the 3pt line. Blazers are a good 3pt shooting team, but they aren't a good team if they have to make 37% of their 3's to win.
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Re: Rd 1 Game 1: Portland vs New Orleans 7:30pm SNW/ESPN 

Post#349 » by ducler » Tue Apr 17, 2018 6:38 pm

Brandon-Clyde wrote:Copying Ducler's post from the overall playoff thread
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Re: Rd 1 Game 1: Portland vs New Orleans 7:30pm SNW/ESPN 

Post#350 » by Wizenheimer » Tue Apr 17, 2018 6:41 pm

is ducler a bot?
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Re: Rd 1 Game 1: Portland vs New Orleans 7:30pm SNW/ESPN 

Post#351 » by Brandon-Clyde » Wed Apr 18, 2018 1:18 am

Wizenheimer wrote:is ducler a bot?

I believe so. He does the same thing for every team. Also notice the betting odds in the post so I'm guessing it is gambling related
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Re: Rd 1 Game 1: Portland vs New Orleans 7:30pm SNW/ESPN 

Post#352 » by The Sebastian Express » Wed Apr 18, 2018 1:21 am

He isn't a bot.

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