Portland's Off-Season Has Officially Arrived

[Wizenheimer]

Can't make any player transactions till the playoffs are complete and a champion crowned. But there's no restriction on coaching moves or front office moves...What will Paul Allen order?

Crapzano has a screed about things:

http://www.oregonlive.com/sports/oregonian/john_canzano/index.ssf/2018/04/canzano_portland_trail_blazers.html#incart_big-photo

I assume the next step are the exit interviews and some likely pablum from the front office. And to buttress that, Yahoo's Chris Mannix is publishing quotes from Olshey he got in the last month. Blazers Edge has an article on it

https://www.blazersedge.com/2018/4/22/17267190/neil-olshey-interview-free-agency-trades-rebuild

https://www.facebook.com/ChrisMannixYS/posts/2091322841138145

The large portion of the quotes relate to the franchise’s focus on building through the draft, player development and opportunistic trades, which have consistently been echoed by Olshey in an almost mantra-like tone throughout his tenure with the Blazers.

it's been the mantra for sure and after 6 years the result is being swept in the first round by a lower seed

but hey, why change the mantra if the customers keep buying what you're selling?

also, Dave at Blazers Edge summarizes some quotes from Blazer bloggers about the season:

https://www.blazersedge.com/2018/4/22/17266834/portland-trail-blazers-2017-18-lillard-mccollum

Paul Navarre @paulnavarre

The thing I am going to remember about this year’s team is the bad quarter. Every game had one it seems.

Brian Freeman @BrianFreeman24

I’m currently hoping I’ll forget this season. But If I remember it, it will be the season that the Blazers were the 3 seed in a loaded Western Conference and sellers at the trade deadline

Perry Waggoner @perrywaggoner

Every time I watch Titanic, I hope the ship doesn’t hit the iceberg and sink. It always does. I’ll remember this year as yet another Titanic-esque season for the Trail Blazers.

Dave Deckard @DaveDeckard

I’ll remember this season most for looking at the salary cap ledger multiple times, trying to figure out how this was going to all fit together, watching it go to heck in the first part of the year, then coming up for one last breath of air during that 13-game win streak. This is the year the Blazers had to prove it. It’s hard to know if they almost did or if that was another bout of wishful thinking. In the end, if you have to ask that question, I guess you have your answer.

************************************************

[Wizenheimer]

I guess the biggest question is what to do with the Dame/CJ back court. They are much more redundant then complementary....that's a problem. But the bigger problem is one of talent. Top talent begets playoff success. How talented, really, are Dame-CJ compared to the best players on other good teams? (advisory: the last 4 games count for something but I'm not going to judge Dame harshly based on the worst 4 games of his career against a team absolutely determined to shut him down)

so I'll make a list that people with almost certainly disagree with (keep in mind that I value defense)

Players definitely better than Dame:

Lebron James
Giannis Antetokounmpo
James Harden
Chris Paul
Stephen Curry
Kevin Durant
Russel Westbrook
Kawhi Leonard
Anthony Davis

Players maybe better than Dame:

Kyrie Irving
Jrue Holiday

Players probably as good as Dame:

Paul George
Jimmy Butler

Players maybe as good as Dame:

Kyle Lowry
Joel Embid (moving up)
Karl Anthony Towns (moving up)
John Wall

Players definitely better then CJ:

Demar Derozan
Gordon Hayward
Ben Simmons
Victor Oladipo
Kristaps Porzingis
Kemba Walker
Draymond Green
Lamarcus Aldridge
Rudy Gobert
Nikola Jokic


Players probably/might-be better then CJ:

Bradley Beal
Andre Drummond
Blake Griffin (fading)
Khris Middleton
Dwight Howard
Klay Thompson
Devin Booker

Players probably/might be as good as CJ (with a provision for higher-ceiling = more value):

Dennis Schroder
Hassan Whiteside
Kevin Love
Tobias Harris
Donovan Mitchell (higher value)
Jamal Murry (value)
Lou Williams

Players that will probably/might catch or pass CJ and may have higher value:

Jalen Brown
Jayson Tatum
Robert Covington (top defender)
Otto Porter
Clint Capella (right place - right time?)
Jusuf Nurkic (defensive impact)
Brandon Ingram (damn Lakers)
Lonzo Ball (damn Lakers)
Kyle Kuzma (damn Lakers)

I'm sure many people will disagree with the rankings and that's fine...debate is great

what I'm thinking is that Dame might be outside of the top-15, and after the playoff disaster should be out of the top 10. And at best, CJ is on the bottom edge of the top-30. Ideally, the Blazers would have a player better than Dame...but to be honest, that seems like a pipe-dream. If they keep Dame (and my bias is they should), then they need to find a player as good or close enough to as good to not make a difference. And they have to significantly upgrade the talent in the rotation. But the 2016 summer really throttles the opportunities

I'm sure we'll hear about all kinds of plans and deflections, but it sure seems like Portland has two fundamental options:

* ride the roster till contracts start expiring and hope for the best

* be willing to make major changes and accept that the most viable path to getting better may be to get worse first

[Waynearchetype]

Sam Hinkie Please.

[Epicurus]

So much depends upon the consistency probability of the same squad for next year. ALmost to a man they show glimmers ever so often of being serious NBA contributors and most are early in their careers. Yet, the emphasis this pre-season was on consistency, but it really was never realized adequately. In short, there is too much variation in their play, especially shooting, to know who will show up each night. Can that be meliorate? If not, then might as well, go for the major changes which probably will guarantee lottery for next-offseason or more.

[DeBlazerRiddem]

Should this also be the draft thread or should we get another?

Here is a quickly cobbled together big board, just for discussion:

Tier 1: Too good not to play from day 1
Ayton, Doncic

Tier 2: High potential to be an All-Star
Jackson, Bagley, Young, M Porter, Bamba

Tier 3: Solid starter
Carter, Mikal Bridges, Smith, Miles Bridges, Knox, J Porter, Sexton, Gilgeous-Alexander

Tier 4: Role player
Walker, Williams, Musa, Milton, T Brown, Brunson, Robinson, Evans, Trent Jr, Bates-Diop, Hutchison, Fraizer, Brown, Bonga

Tier 5: Fringe player
Simmons, Thomas, Melton, Okobo, Carter, Holiday, Carr, Shamet, Duval, Metu, Spalding, Ponds, Alkins

I think we should have a pretty good selection from that Tier 4 ranking.

[Norm2953]

We 're headed for a rebuild and I only wish we had another GM we could be confident with. Stotts is likely
going to be canned but I really think he's the third or fourth of problems on the list. I'd even be willing to
come back with the roster more or less intact if we canned NO and Stotts and went into next season with
fresh pairs of eyes in our front office and bench.

[7-12-52]

Lebron James (33)
Giannis Antetokounmpo (23)
James Harden (28)
Chris Paul (32)
Stephen Curry (30)
Kevin Durant (29)
Russel Westbrook (29)
Kawhi Leonard (26)
Anthony Davis (25)
Kyrie Irving (26)
Jrue Holiday (27)
Paul George (27)
Jimmy Butler (28)
Kyle Lowry (32)
Joel Embid (moving up) (24)
Karl Anthony Towns (moving up) (22)
John Wall (27)
Nikola Jokic (23)
Boogie Cousins (27)
Rudy Gobert (25)
Gordon Hayward (28)
Ben Simmons (21)

I added ages and consolidated some of the player lists by Wizenheimer. There are only 4 players on that list that are more than 2 years older than Dame and 12 his age or younger. Looking at that list it is pretty discouraging to me. Based on the emergence of Towns, Embiid, & Simmons I'd wager it is more likely that more young players come into the league and surpass Dame in status than it is Dame can move much further up the top 10 lists. That shouldn't be a seen as a slight to Damian either... he is a stud. The problem is there are some absolute freaks on that list (the Greek one included.)

[Dame Lizard]

We 're headed for a rebuild and I only wish we had another GM we could be confident with. Stotts is likely
going to be canned but I really think he's the third or fourth of problems on the list. I'd even be willing to
come back with the roster more or less intact if we canned NO and Stotts and went into next season with
fresh pairs of eyes in our front office and bench.

Interesting. Personally I'd much rather change up the roster and keep Olshey and Stotts than keep the roster and fire Olshey and Stotts.

Sent from my [device_name] using [url]RealGM mobile app[/url]

[7-12-52]

I am very upset by the quotes I read from the Olshey exit interview.
from Joe Freeman twitter:

Neil Olshey: "This one was so extreme, I don’t want to overreact …"
Neil Olshey on how the playoff sweep changes his view on the team and season. "It doesn’t change anything about the season."
Neil Olshey: "Everyone understands this is a work in progress."
Neil Olshey's message to people calling for sweeping changes: "Where were all these people that wanted these sweeping changes 10 days ago. ... It’s our job to be measured. And not overreact."

These responses genuinely make me angry. Neil is completely denying reality... going so far as to say naysayers didn't even exist 10 days ago. That is straight BS!

[Epicurus]

I am very upset by the quotes I read from the Olshey exit interview.
from Joe Freeman twitter:

Neil Olshey: "This one was so extreme, I don’t want to overreact …"
Neil Olshey on how the playoff sweep changes his view on the team and season. "It doesn’t change anything about the season."
Neil Olshey: "Everyone understands this is a work in progress."
Neil Olshey's message to people calling for sweeping changes: "Where were all these people that wanted these sweeping changes 10 days ago. ... It’s our job to be measured. And not overreact."

These responses genuinely make me angry. Neil is completely denying reality... going so far as to say naysayers didn't even exist 10 days ago. That is straight BS!

SOunds like a mature decision maker and not some Negative Nelly who will allow unanchored emotions to guide his path. Now, the question is whether he will have the courage of his mature views or will he surrender to the crowd, and can he make creative fine tuning which doesn't throw out the baby with the bath water.

[7-12-52]

I am very upset by the quotes I read from the Olshey exit interview.
from Joe Freeman twitter:

Neil Olshey: "This one was so extreme, I don’t want to overreact …"
Neil Olshey on how the playoff sweep changes his view on the team and season. "It doesn’t change anything about the season."
Neil Olshey: "Everyone understands this is a work in progress."
Neil Olshey's message to people calling for sweeping changes: "Where were all these people that wanted these sweeping changes 10 days ago. ... It’s our job to be measured. And not overreact."

These responses genuinely make me angry. Neil is completely denying reality... going so far as to say naysayers didn't even exist 10 days ago. That is straight BS!

SOunds like a mature decision maker and not some Negative Nelly who will allow unanchored emotions to guide his path. Now, the question is whether he will have the courage of his mature views or will he surrender to the crowd, and can he make creative fine tuning which doesn't throw out the baby with the bath water.

I've held the tank stance from the moment Aldridge left. I was adamant that we were on path to be the next Phoenix Suns or Atlanta Hawks treadmill team. At what point is it not considered being guided by emotions? Apparently 3 years isn't enough, can you tell me what is?

[Downtown]

The "creative fine tuning" in my opinion is a need for an "attitude" player like a Marcus Smart or Kelly Oubre. Both fairly versatile positionally, both can handle the ball well, and both come to play with a chip on their shoulders. Find a couple of those types and I think it would help.

[Epicurus]

Let's see , after the Large Exodus, the rebuilding brought about a 43 game winner (pretty far above expectations); then a 41 game winner (slightly worse than expected); and then a 49 game winner (about 7 wins above expectations in the more dynamic West). Seems not like the worst rebuild. But, yes, it has only won one playoff series in that time. Did you think you would be dealing with something better by tanking the year after the Big Exodus? Maybe, maybe not. I only want to deal with reality and not counterreality here. The reality is a pretty decent young team which has a chance to even improve next season internally (looking at you young guys like Collins, Nurkic, and Harkless). Will that along with some good fortune in the draft produce a world champion or even a conference champion? I doubt it, but it conceivably would mean even more seasonal wins and maybe a first round win. Good enough for a rebuilding team? For me, yes; for some/many no (they somehow believe that their allegiance to a team produced the team's duty of giving them championships.

[7-12-52]

Let's see , after the Large Exodus, the rebuilding brought about a 43 game winner (pretty far above expectations); then a 41 game winner (slightly worse than expected); and then a 49 game winner (about 7 wins above expectations in the more dynamic West). Seems not like the worst rebuild. But, yes, it has only won one playoff series in that time. Did you think you would be dealing with something better by tanking the year after the Big Exodus? Maybe, maybe not. I only want to deal with reality and not counterreality here. The reality is a pretty decent young team which has a chance to even improve next season internally (looking at you young guys like Collins, Nurkic, and Harkless). Will that along with some good fortune in the draft produce a world champion or even a conference champion? I doubt it, but it conceivably would mean even more seasonal wins and maybe a first round win. Good enough for a rebuilding team? For me, yes; for some/many no (they somehow believe that their allegiance to a team produced the team's duty of giving them championships.

You wrote all that when all I asked was how long I have to maintain the same opinion before you stop being snarky about "unanchored emotions guiding the path."

Instead you went into a screed about your thoughts on the team? Why?

[Epicurus]

I thought obviously that my response was directly relevant to your question. Sorry, I didn't answer it the way you would have preferred. To be more succinct--not yet and four years.

[PDXKnight]

Olshey seemed surprisingly optimistic & it almost seems like he is safe for now. Ugh

[Ripcity4life]

If Stotts still has a job by this time next week he is prolly safe unless there is some coach out there that might be perceived as a longshot or something that PA's money can lure to Portland.

All i know is that for the 1st time since prolly jail blazers era i am as down on this team as i have been and it cause i see a team in a black hole with no good plan to get out cause of various reasons. Reason i say no good plan cause even trading one or both of the Dame / CJ back court is no sure solution to this mess. Also to a small degree i am starting to agree with Zano on SOME of his opinions not all and not with his venom he seems to have with the franchise. However some points have some small truths like Olshey -- i think Zano thinks all the problems are on Olshey and while he has created some of the issues he is not all of it.

I feel like the team is dying from a 1000 tiny cuts or in terms of running the team a handful or more of questionable to bad decisions that have put the franchise is this black hole.

[Wizenheimer]

I am very upset by the quotes I read from the Olshey exit interview.
from Joe Freeman twitter:

Neil Olshey: "This one was so extreme, I don’t want to overreact …"
Neil Olshey on how the playoff sweep changes his view on the team and season. "It doesn’t change anything about the season."
Neil Olshey: "Everyone understands this is a work in progress."
Neil Olshey's message to people calling for sweeping changes: "Where were all these people that wanted these sweeping changes 10 days ago. ... It’s our job to be measured. And not overreact."

These responses genuinely make me angry. Neil is completely denying reality... going so far as to say naysayers didn't even exist 10 days ago. That is straight BS!

I expected nothing more. Snake oil is as snake oil does

[Epicurus]

I guess some folks' snake oil is other persons' sweet nectar of prudence.

[DeBlazerRiddem]

I am very upset by the quotes I read from the Olshey exit interview.
from Joe Freeman twitter:

Neil Olshey: "This one was so extreme, I don’t want to overreact …"
Neil Olshey on how the playoff sweep changes his view on the team and season. "It doesn’t change anything about the season."
Neil Olshey: "Everyone understands this is a work in progress."
Neil Olshey's message to people calling for sweeping changes: "Where were all these people that wanted these sweeping changes 10 days ago. ... It’s our job to be measured. And not overreact."

These responses genuinely make me angry. Neil is completely denying reality... going so far as to say naysayers didn't even exist 10 days ago. That is straight BS!

I expected nothing more. Snake oil is as snake oil does

To be honest, this was not the time or place for him to really dig into the team. If I was the owner I would want a confident and united front presented to the world, even if the sky was falling behind the scenes. That's the nature of PR, you don't really air your dirty laundry.