CJ for ???

[BlazersBroncos]

Jesus I never realized that CJ was so elite in catch/shoot. 98th percentile is nuts. I wonder how efficient he would be in a system where he was constantly running off screens like a sort of supercharged Kyle Korver. That would easily be his best role. Let Dame dominate the ball, increase Nurk's post touches and set a system in place that has the SF/PF set tons of off ball screens for CJ to run around.

If we simply had more talent overall we could be looking at defenses that 'forget' about CJ and that maximizes his catch/shoot abilities but we are not facing that luxury.

[dunlop212]

Just playing basketball I appreciate having a team mate who can get a shot off. The guy who comes to mind for guys my age would be Rick Barry circa 1975. Generally shot under 45% IIRC, but could score the ball late in the shot clock, and led his Warrior team to an NBA title.

[Wizenheimer]

CJ is pretty good at getting his shot off against pressure from the defense, these are typically less efficient but still necessary shots, so he still has pretty elite offensive skills it just doesn't show up in TS%. Its like Aldridge's main shot was a less efficient shot but it was a necessary outlet and always available in case the offense couldn't produce a better shot. Stats can capture a lot but they have trouble capturing that dynamic aspect of basketball. Basically you cant always shoot your preferred shot or the defense will adjust to take it away, you have to be able to attack from multiple angles. That is where strategy and stats diverge a bit.

I would be curious to see a comparison to Harden before/after he left OKC, because I would venture to guess that Harden got a lot better at being the lead guard once he was actually in the role. I think if CJ was put in the position as lead guard he would adapt and improve his PG skills a bit, not to a Harden level obviously (and Harden was always elite at drawing fouls). He wouldn't be enough playmaking on his own but I think he does have improvements he can make in that regard.

I honestly do not know why CJ would improve his efficiency numbers if he was a lead guard. Sure, it could happen, but while one side of that equation has the potential increase in production + efficiency due to opportunity, the other side has the potential decrease in production + efficiency due to opposing defensive focus

further, the ratio between CJ's assisted FG rate and his TS% is obvious...his TS% goes down as his assisted FG rate drops. Pretty direct correlation. As a lead guard, his assisted FG rate would probably be even lower

as for him having "elite offensive skills"....really?

he shows poorly in TS% and eFG%....I mentioned that when I did a season finder at bbref for last season, filtering for players who logged 800 minutes or more. He finished, IIRC, 202nd of 305 players in TS% and 195th in eFG% (where you'd expect much better if he was actually elite because it doesn't account for FT's)

the best CJ shows is in points/possession (in this case points/100-possessions). In that category, he finished 29th which seems pretty good until you take a look at the list and filter for guards:

1 James Harden
2 Stephen Curry
3 Kyrie Irving
6 Damian Lillard
12 Russell Westbrook
13 Devin Booker
14 Victor Oladipo
15 Lou Williams
16 DeMar DeRozan
18 Tyreke Evans
19 Kemba Walker
22 Bradley Beal
24 Donovan Mitchell
25 Dennis Schroder
26 Jimmy Butler
28 Paul George
29 CJ McCollum

for some reason, I can't copy/paste the actual points number per 100 possessions so it's a little hard to gauge the difference between CJ and those other players. For instance Devin Booker averaged 34.5, Lou Williams averaged 33.5, Kemba Walker averaged 31.5, Donovan Mitchell averaged 30.7, while CJ averaged 29.5. A rookie averaged 1.2 more points/100 possessions then CJ. Lillard averaged 36.6 as a comparison

http://bkref.com/tiny/wZfcm

now, I imagine you'd point out, justifiably, that the rate that a certain player has to create their own offense will inform, to a degree, that list above. in other words, assisted FG rate

1 James Harden - 15.8%
2 Stephen Curry - 51.6%
3 Kyrie Irving - 34.6%
6 Damian Lillard - 27.4%
12 Devin Booker - 42.6%
13 Russell Westbrook - 20.3%
14 Victor Oladipo - 34.8%
15 DeMar DeRozan - 31.9%
16 Lou Williams - 37.3%
18 Tyreke Evans - 30.6%
19 Kemba Walker - 28.1%
21 Bradley Beal - 48.0%
24 Donovan Mitchell - 37.6%
25 Dennis Schroder - 25.0%
26 Jimmy Butler - 40.0%
28 Paul George - 54.7%
29 CJ McCollum - 33.3%

I guess Paul George is the outlier there; maybe Curry and Beal, a little. But I'm just not seeing the variance there that justifies saying CJ does it well enough to be considered elite
********************************

I also sorted for assists/100-possessions. CJ finished 48th in that category, but some of the players better than him were Eric Bledsoe, Jrue Holiday, Lou Williams, Devin Booker, Bradley Beal, Dion Waiters, Will Barton, Jordan Clarkson, Jamal Crawford, Donovan Mitchell, Greg Monroe, Jamal Murray, Joel Embiid, & J.J. Redick. Donovan Mitchell, a rookie SG, showed better than CJ is both points/possession and assists/possession

ok then....CJ does poorly measured by TS% and eFG%. And he finishes 29th in points/possession and 48th in assists/possession. He's only in the 80th percentile in PnR and isolation and hand-off, and the 46th percentile in off screen action. I just can't see how he's elite as a get-his-own offensive option, not unless guys like Devin Booker, Tyreke Evans, Kemba Walker, Donovan Mitchell, and Dennis Schroder are also "elite", and that sure begins to dilute the meaning of elite

maybe I'm missing something statistically that would support the CJ-is-elite argument. It seems among Blazer nation there is a sizable proportion of the fanbase that believes CJ is elite because 'he just has to be...right?' That seems to be the foundation of it. Now, he did have a much better season in 16-17 than he did last season, But his 15-17 and 17-18 seasons were quite similar so there may be more indicating that 16-17 was an outlier rather than last season. So help me Deblazer, what is it that sets CJ apart from guys like Donovan Mitchell, Jimmy Butler, Kemba Walker, Low Williams and Victor Oladipo?...or all they all elite?

[Sabzi]

maybe I'm missing something statistically that would support the CJ-is-elite argument. It seems among Blazer nation there is a sizable proportion of the fanbase that believes CJ is elite because 'he just has to be...right?' That seems to be the foundation of it. Now, he did have a much better season in 16-17 than he did last season, But his 15-17 and 17-18 seasons were quite similar so there may be more indicating that 16-17 was an outlier rather than last season. So help me Deblazer, what is it that sets CJ apart from guys like Donovan Mitchell, Jimmy Butler, Kemba Walker, Low Williams and Victor Oladipo?...or all they all elite?

You're not missing anything. He's massively overrated. Keep up the good work.

[PTPaQ]

Unfortunately CJ’s contract makes him an uphill battle for value, not to mention we (TB fans) will hold him to an overinflated esteem because he is such a great guy and a blast to watch (as I think Wiz mentioned). The reality is were kinda stuck with a neutral asset that is probably capped out.

[cucad8]

I've gotta imagine you've written enough to fill a novel on cj McCollum. It's quite incredible really. The amount of time you insist on using to combat anyone's favorable opinionof him. I'm not saying the stats are wrong, anything likethat. And you're entitled to your opinions on our players. But wow. It's amazing. Like harry potter book 7 length novel.

[BlazersBroncos]

I agree with everything Wiz has laid out. That being said, I think CJ has higher value around the league than he does on this message board. I have always wondered what the '+' would entail in a Fournier & Gordon for CJ + type deal. Personally, I would entertain including Zach if necessary. I think Fournier is quite underrated and think a starting lineup of Damian/Fournier/Aminu/Gordon/Nurkic is really interesting.

[The Sebastian Express]

Sabzi is alive. Good God.

[DeBlazerRiddem]

maybe I'm missing something statistically that would support the CJ-is-elite argument. It seems among Blazer nation there is a sizable proportion of the fanbase that believes CJ is elite because 'he just has to be...right?' That seems to be the foundation of it. Now, he did have a much better season in 16-17 than he did last season, But his 15-17 and 17-18 seasons were quite similar so there may be more indicating that 16-17 was an outlier rather than last season. So help me Deblazer, what is it that sets CJ apart from guys like Donovan Mitchell, Jimmy Butler, Kemba Walker, Low Williams and Victor Oladipo?...or all they all elite?

You're not missing anything because I was pointedly not making a statistical argument. Statistics say that the best shot is always the most efficient shot - so if that's the truth then how hard could coaching even be, just find each players most efficient shot and have them always take that same shot!

The truth is the best shot is usually that which your opponent is not prepared to defend and you just cannot determine that with simplified statistics nor can you just run the same play each time with the same result. Thus why I keep saying basketball is a dynamic sport and statistics become really complicated when you move it from a static environment to a dynamic environment.

I'm not saying CJ has the only elite skillset or that it is overall better than others. Oladipo and Butler are way more athletic, Walker and Williams both can run an offense. CJ relies basically only on skills to do his scoring and there are very few players I see that have that level of skill. His deficiencies in other areas means that is overall impact is not greater than those other players but you can acknowledge that without ignoring or diminishing his strengths. I have totally been on board with you that CJ is a flawed player and a poor fit with Lillard but he does have one absolute NBA skill which is using his craftiness to create his own shots - the vast majority of NBA players cannot create their own shot, especially from anywhere on the floor. However that isn't to say we cant try and improve on CJ shot selection and get him more assisted FGs (where he is statistically elite).

[Roy The Natural]

maybe I'm missing something statistically that would support the CJ-is-elite argument. It seems among Blazer nation there is a sizable proportion of the fanbase that believes CJ is elite because 'he just has to be...right?' That seems to be the foundation of it. Now, he did have a much better season in 16-17 than he did last season, But his 15-17 and 17-18 seasons were quite similar so there may be more indicating that 16-17 was an outlier rather than last season. So help me Deblazer, what is it that sets CJ apart from guys like Donovan Mitchell, Jimmy Butler, Kemba Walker, Low Williams and Victor Oladipo?...or all they all elite?

You're not missing anything because I was pointedly not making a statistical argument. Statistics say that the best shot is always the most efficient shot - so if that's the truth then how hard could coaching even be, just find each players most efficient shot and have them always take that same shot!

The truth is the best shot is usually that which your opponent is not prepared to defend and you just cannot determine that with simplified statistics nor can you just run the same play each time with the same result. Thus why I keep saying basketball is a dynamic sport and statistics become really complicated when you move it from a static environment to a dynamic environment.

I'm not saying CJ has the only elite skillset or that it is overall better than others. Oladipo and Butler are way more athletic, Walker and Williams both can run an offense. CJ relies basically only on skills to do his scoring and there are very few players I see that have that level of skill. His deficiencies in other areas means that is overall impact is not greater than those other players but you can acknowledge that without ignoring or diminishing his strengths. I have totally been on board with you that CJ is a flawed player and a poor fit with Lillard but he does have one absolute NBA skill which is using his craftiness to create his own shots - the vast majority of NBA players cannot create their own shot, especially from anywhere on the floor. However that isn't to say we cant try and improve on CJ shot selection and get him more assisted FGs (where he is statistically elite).

We also should be noting how much better CJ was the year prior statistically... was that an outlier, or was this last year the outlier. CJ is going into year 4 of being considered a good player. This will probably be the year to determine if he has stagnated completely, or he's still growing.

[Wizenheimer]

maybe I'm missing something statistically that would support the CJ-is-elite argument. It seems among Blazer nation there is a sizable proportion of the fanbase that believes CJ is elite because 'he just has to be...right?' That seems to be the foundation of it. Now, he did have a much better season in 16-17 than he did last season, But his 15-17 and 17-18 seasons were quite similar so there may be more indicating that 16-17 was an outlier rather than last season. So help me Deblazer, what is it that sets CJ apart from guys like Donovan Mitchell, Jimmy Butler, Kemba Walker, Low Williams and Victor Oladipo?...or all they all elite?

You're not missing anything because I was pointedly not making a statistical argument. Statistics say that the best shot is always the most efficient shot - so if that's the truth then how hard could coaching even be, just find each players most efficient shot and have them always take that same shot!

The truth is the best shot is usually that which your opponent is not prepared to defend and you just cannot determine that with simplified statistics nor can you just run the same play each time with the same result. Thus why I keep saying basketball is a dynamic sport and statistics become really complicated when you move it from a static environment to a dynamic environment.

I'm not saying CJ has the only elite skillset or that it is overall better than others. Oladipo and Butler are way more athletic, Walker and Williams both can run an offense. CJ relies basically only on skills to do his scoring and there are very few players I see that have that level of skill. His deficiencies in other areas means that is overall impact is not greater than those other players but you can acknowledge that without ignoring or diminishing his strengths. I have totally been on board with you that CJ is a flawed player and a poor fit with Lillard but he does have one absolute NBA skill which is using his craftiness to create his own shots - the vast majority of NBA players cannot create their own shot, especially from anywhere on the floor. However that isn't to say we cant try and improve on CJ shot selection and get him more assisted FGs (where he is statistically elite).

ok then....I think I get where you're coming from, and correct me if I'm wrong, that being that out of 450 or so NBA players only 20-30 may be better than CJ at creating their own shot. He's not better than most of those few at this skill, but compared to 90% of the rest of NBA players, he is, by quite a bit...?

as for the level of assisted FG rate, I've been harping on that for several months. I think CJ's rate should be equal to or higher than Stephen Curry's 51% rate. His spot up shooting is elite, as you say, and if the defense closes out on him to deny that shot, then he has the handles to convert that to another type of opportunity. And that may also mitigate, to a significant extent, his tendency to dominate the ball and shot clock, which does no favors for Portland's offensive flow.

of course, Curry has Green, and Durant, and Livingston, and Iggy as passing-to-him options, a luxury Portland doesn't have. But that's a roster flaw. I think CJ's optimal game would have a lot more spot-up and catch & shoot then it has over the last 3 seasons

We also should be noting how much better CJ was the year prior statistically... was that an outlier, or was this last year the outlier. CJ is going into year 4 of being considered a good player. This will probably be the year to determine if he has stagnated completely, or he's still growing.

it's possible, but if 17-18 was an outlier, so was 15-16. Both seasons were remarkably similar in efficiency and other advanced numbers.

a couple of things about 16-17....CJ had his highest assisted FG rate and his highest FT rate. Both tend to elevate efficiency although I can't figure out how they might be related

[Wizenheimer]

I've gotta imagine you've written enough to fill a novel on cj McCollum. It's quite incredible really. The amount of time you insist on using to combat anyone's favorable opinionof him. I'm not saying the stats are wrong, anything likethat. And you're entitled to your opinions on our players. But wow. It's amazing. Like harry potter book 7 length novel.

well, I'm wordy....especially when I'm dredging up stats to support my arguments. That's not new

but don't worry, after over 11 years, I just checked my verbiage reservoir and what do you know....it still sits at 100%...haven't drained it a bit

[Roy The Natural]

maybe I'm missing something statistically that would support the CJ-is-elite argument. It seems among Blazer nation there is a sizable proportion of the fanbase that believes CJ is elite because 'he just has to be...right?' That seems to be the foundation of it. Now, he did have a much better season in 16-17 than he did last season, But his 15-17 and 17-18 seasons were quite similar so there may be more indicating that 16-17 was an outlier rather than last season. So help me Deblazer, what is it that sets CJ apart from guys like Donovan Mitchell, Jimmy Butler, Kemba Walker, Low Williams and Victor Oladipo?...or all they all elite?

You're not missing anything because I was pointedly not making a statistical argument. Statistics say that the best shot is always the most efficient shot - so if that's the truth then how hard could coaching even be, just find each players most efficient shot and have them always take that same shot!

The truth is the best shot is usually that which your opponent is not prepared to defend and you just cannot determine that with simplified statistics nor can you just run the same play each time with the same result. Thus why I keep saying basketball is a dynamic sport and statistics become really complicated when you move it from a static environment to a dynamic environment.

I'm not saying CJ has the only elite skillset or that it is overall better than others. Oladipo and Butler are way more athletic, Walker and Williams both can run an offense. CJ relies basically only on skills to do his scoring and there are very few players I see that have that level of skill. His deficiencies in other areas means that is overall impact is not greater than those other players but you can acknowledge that without ignoring or diminishing his strengths. I have totally been on board with you that CJ is a flawed player and a poor fit with Lillard but he does have one absolute NBA skill which is using his craftiness to create his own shots - the vast majority of NBA players cannot create their own shot, especially from anywhere on the floor. However that isn't to say we cant try and improve on CJ shot selection and get him more assisted FGs (where he is statistically elite).

ok then....I think I get where you're coming from, and correct me if I'm wrong, that being that out of 450 or so NBA players only 20-30 may be better than CJ at creating their own shot. He's not better than most of those few at this skill, but compared to 90% of the rest of NBA players, he is, by quite a bit...?

as for the level of assisted FG rate, I've been harping on that for several months. I think CJ's rate should be equal to or higher than Stephen Curry's 51% rate. His spot up shooting is elite, as you say, and if the defense closes out on him to deny that shot, then he has the handles to convert that to another type of opportunity. And that may also mitigate, to a significant extent, his tendency to dominate the ball and shot clock, which does no favors for Portland's offensive flow.

of course, Curry has Green, and Durant, and Livingston, and Iggy as passing-to-him options, a luxury Portland doesn't have. But that's a roster flaw. I think CJ's optimal game would have a lot more spot-up and catch & shoot then it has over the last 3 seasons

We also should be noting how much better CJ was the year prior statistically... was that an outlier, or was this last year the outlier. CJ is going into year 4 of being considered a good player. This will probably be the year to determine if he has stagnated completely, or he's still growing.

it's possible, but if 17-18 was an outlier, so was 15-16. Both seasons were remarkably similar in efficiency and other advanced numbers.

a couple of things about 16-17....CJ had his highest assisted FG rate and his highest FT rate. Both tend to elevate efficiency although I can't figure out how they might be related

Thay's whyy I didn't call 17-18 an outlier. With 3 years of starter play, I'm just not sure there's enough evidence to support any fullblown trend. CJ 1st year was remarkably similar to his 3rd year as a starter. His second year as a starter was waaaayyyy better than the others in nearly every metric you look at. It's also quite possible that his inconsistent shooting in 17-18 was just a blip and he vaults right back up to 16-17 levels of play... It certainly wouldn't be surprising.

I think a lot of last years offensive issues came down to a lack of shooting in general throughout the roster. We basically had CJ as the only one shooting the ball well for the 1st 3rd of the year... The team needs better spacing, we'll see if they get it this year and that opens things up... hell, we'll see if CJ is even on the roster this whole year, wouldn't be surprised if he wasn't.

I still think CJ is a tremendous player who's in a not so tremendous situation here in Portland. On a team with better spacing, and more offensive threats, he'd be a scoring dynamo IMO.

[PTPaQ]

Reports of Blazer engaging in Kawhi talk, offers not serious enough though. Bleacher Report.

[zzaj]

Reports of Blazer engaging in Kawhi talk, offers not serious enough though. Bleacher Report.

And they shouldn't be. No team is going to give up very much long-term value for a 1 year rental of a now franchise headache player with a potentially career altering injury...top 5 player (when healthy) or not.

[Wizenheimer]

Reports of Blazer engaging in Kawhi talk, offers not serious enough though. Bleacher Report.

yeah, no Dame and CJ offered...reasonable because the odds of Kawhi being a 1 year rental for any team besides the Lakers have to be approaching 100%

was probably Harkless + Aminu, although I wouldn't be surprised if Olshey tried to use Meyers as 'positive' trade value

[PTPaQ]

What I’d like to see is if Jimmy
Butler is really anout all this noise he is putting out there and willing to come play with one if the more devoted, no-nonsense, gym rat guys in the league in Lillard and be willing to stick around in Portland, or is all of this noise pollution just him weasling out of Chicago and now out of Minnesota just to go to New York.

[dunlop212]

OK Wiz, I am going to mildly object. I replied to an Orlando fan who asked if CJ could be a lead guard, listing the defects in his game, but calling him an elite *scorer* The first time you accurately quoted me, and cited stays showing that he was inefficient. I did not reply, because I agree that he is inefficient. But I think that it is self evident that someone who has been scoring in the 20s for three straight years on a playoff team is an elite scorer.

Since then you have changed elite scorer to elite offense in your posts. There are no posts referring to "elite offense" in the thread other than your posts, and I certainly don't view him that way.

[Wizenheimer]

OK Wiz, I am going to mildly object. I replied to an Orlando fan who asked if CJ could be a lead guard, listing the defects in his game, but calling him an elite *scorer* The first time you accurately quoted me, and cited stays showing that he was inefficient. I did not reply, because I agree that he is inefficient. But I think that it is self evident that someone who has been scoring in the 20s for three straight years on a playoff team is an elite scorer.

Since then you have changed elite scorer to elite offense in your posts. There are no posts referring to "elite offense" in the thread other than your posts, and I certainly don't view him that way.

CJ is pretty good at getting his shot off against pressure from the defense, these are typically less efficient but still necessary shots, so he still has pretty elite offensive skills it just doesn't show up in TS%. .

that's from this thread and I was replying to it in subsequent posts

[dunlop212]

My apologies.