2019 Offseason, June 30th 3PM PT.

NYG · Post #1 » by **NYG** » Mon Feb 11, 2019 1:15 am

1. Who are your free agents and what percentage would you put on them re-signing?

2. What are your team needs and the overall short term goals of the team?

3. Is there any reason your coach may not be in place next year?

4. Who are you willing to trade?

Wizenheimer · Post #2 » by **Wizenheimer** » Mon Feb 11, 2019 2:45 am

NYG wrote:1. Who are your free agents and what percentage would you put on them re-signing?

2. What are your team needs and the overall short term goals of the team?

3. Is there any reason your coach may not be in place next year?

4. Who are you willing to trade?

I think the preface for all the 'answers' starts with how the Blazers do in the playoffs, and hanging over everything is the uncertainty of what Jody Allen wants to do

to answer the questions, IMO:

1: free agents are Aminu (UFA - full Bird) - 25% chance; Hood (UFA - non Bird) 30% chance; Curry (UFA - non Bird) 35% chance; Layman (RFA - full Bird) 70% chance

2: Team needs are the same as they have been for 4 years: more talent including a much better talent at option 1b than CJ. Portland needs another player that can command the attention of an opposing defense enough to force it to change and adjust during games. Having one (Dame) isn't enough. I also won't waste an opportunity to say that what Portland needs more than anything else is a new GM that could look at the roster thru an objective lens

3: yes, another 1st round exit would likely see Stotts gone

4: everybody but Lillard, which is logical considering the talent level of the rest of the roster. It would take a giant offer to trade Nurkic since he and Dame have such a good synergy and his contract is so attractive

Post #3 » by **DaVoiceMaster** » Mon Feb 11, 2019 8:03 am

I got nothing else to say that Wiz didnt already say. I guess I could add to the coach question that it depends on Lillard. If he wants him to stay, then Stotts has a job. So far Lillard wants him here.

Norm2953 · Post #4 » by **Norm2953** » Mon Feb 11, 2019 8:26 am

The #1 off season question will be the status of Blazer ownership. Nothing else really matters until
its clear who will be signing the checks for everyone in the organization.

Assuming we have the status quo and NO has a free hand to operate as before, basketball decisions
will be made on our free agents and other team personnel but another quick flameout in the playoffs
could possibly enflame Dame into a trade request ala Anthony Davis. The league unfortunately is
headed towards the super teams and one can see the Lakers offering their AD package to Portland
if Dame wanted out and AD getting traded to Boston.

d-train · Post #5 » by **d-train** » Mon Feb 11, 2019 3:18 pm

NYG wrote:1. Who are your free agents and what percentage would you put on them re-signing?

2. What are your team needs and the overall short term goals of the team?

3. Is there any reason your coach may not be in place next year?

4. Who are you willing to trade?

Good questions.

1. Aminu, Curry, and Hood are UFA's. Layman is a RFA with bird rights. Aminu has full bird rights. I don't believe we acquired full bird rights with the Hood trade. Normally, bird rights are transferred with players acquired by trade, but because Hood signed his qualifying offer and approved the trade, he forfeited his bird rights with his new team. Curry's status is a mystery, but I believe he will be an UFA with non-bird rights.

Resigning Aminu will be the team's top priority, but because his cap hold ($10.4M) is probably less than his resigning value, the actual signing could happen later. I give Aminu resigning a 50% probability because of his UFA status and luxury taxes. I give resigning Layman 50% probability because he is a RFA and Blazers have complete control of his resigning status. However, Blazers are restricted by budget concerns and are a taxpaying team. Curry and Hood are going to be tough to resign. I put Curry at 20% and Hood at 10% because Hood might be expensive. Blazers might be unable to offer Curry or Hood as much as other teams with cap room or bigger MLE.

2. Our biggest need is better top end talent. If Lillard was our 2nd best player instead of our best player, we would be in much better shape. Can anyone think of a team that would want Lillard as their best player? It would have to be a bad team and even some bad teams wouldn't want to trade us their best player for Lillard. Our biggest skill weakness is playmaking. Our PG is a shoot first scoring SG.

Our short term goals are to continue trying to build a team that can overcome its weaknesses with chemistry and continuity. This will most likely be the plan until Lillard gives up trying to be the best player on an NBA team. If Lillard decides he wants to hitch his wagon to one of the leagues best players, it's over for us and time to rebuild.

3. I believe our players play hard for our coach. Our players are well prepared with a plan to succeed even when we play loosy and fail to execute. No reason to change the coach at this time, but this can always change fast. Changing coaches is always the easiest thing to do when things aren't going well.

4. Blazers would trade anyone in a deal that makes them better. It would be difficult to trade Lillard or CJ and get better. We have big contracts that can facilitate a consolidation trade that improves our top end talent. However, consolidation trades that improve top end talent are not easy to make. Anthony Davis would be a nice acquisition.

bigdavid · Post #6 » by **bigdavid** » Mon Feb 11, 2019 3:21 pm

Can we please hire Turner a 3 pt shooting coach! Turner is getting older, if he want's to stay in this league he must shoot 3's. I would suggest Evan spend the entire summer practicing 3's. No Ferraris no exciting long vacations just practice shooting.PLEASE

BlazersBroncos · Post #7 » by **BlazersBroncos** » Mon Feb 11, 2019 3:25 pm

The ship has sailed on Evan becoming a passable 3PT guy. He is what he is.

d-train · Post #8 » by **d-train** » Mon Feb 11, 2019 3:29 pm

bigdavid wrote:Can we please hire Turner a 3 pt shooting coach! Turner is getting older, if he want's to stay in this league he must shoot 3's. I would suggest Evan spend the entire summer practicing 3's. No Ferraris no exciting long vacations just practice shooting.PLEASE

Turner is not a 3pt shooter and never will be a 3pt shooter.

NYG · Post #9 » by **NYG** » Tue Feb 12, 2019 2:48 am

What could/would Portland get without putting Nurkic, McCollum or Lillard on the table?

Wizenheimer · Post #10 » by **Wizenheimer** » Tue Feb 12, 2019 4:08 am

NYG wrote:What could/would Portland get without putting Nurkic, McCollum or Lillard on the table?

they just got it...players like Rodney Hood and Skal Labissiere

d-train · Post #11 » by **d-train** » Tue Feb 12, 2019 8:14 am

NYG wrote:What could/would Portland get without putting Nurkic, McCollum or Lillard on the table?

More than most teams after you take out their best 3 players.

Post #12 » by **DaVoiceMaster** » Tue Feb 12, 2019 8:26 am

Aminu has to go. I cannot take another 82+ games of him trying to dribble the ball, just to turn it over. The Blazers MUST address the PF position and I dont think Collins is the answer either. I could be wrong, as I was with Layman. I hope I am any ways.

Dzon Dilindzer · Post #13 » by **Dzon Dilindzer** » Tue Feb 12, 2019 8:18 pm

DaVoiceMaster wrote::roll: Aminu has to go. I cannot take another 82+ games of him trying to dribble the ball, just to turn it over. The Blazers MUST address the PF position and I dont think Collins is the answer either. I could be wrong, as I was with Layman. I hope I am any ways.

good god, when i saw aminu trying to dribble pg 13, i was like: dafuq

he doesnt have that skill and yet hes still doing it... whats even more idiotic is trying to dribble elite defender like pg 13

d-train · Post #14 » by **d-train** » Thu Feb 14, 2019 12:18 pm

Amendment to question 1 above:

Enes Kanter will be an additional UFA with non-bird rights. This means Blazers need cap room or a cap exception to resign him. Blazers have no cap room and our only exception is the $5.6M taxpayer MLE. It's highly unlikely we will be able resign Kanter. I put the percentage likelihood at 0-.5% probability. I see no chance of resigning Kanter for the MLE.

dunlop212 · Post #15 » by **dunlop212** » Fri Feb 15, 2019 1:23 pm

So ... Portland is likely to lose about half of their rotation to free agency without cap room to replace them. Perhaps a bit of exaggeration, but next year looks rocky unless they use assets (2019 FRP, CJ, Collins, Simons, or whatever has value) to clear space.

If the plan is to let the FAs go and replace them with G leaguers, then the 2020 FRP will be pretty valuable. Rebuild around that and Nurk.

d-train · Post #16 » by **d-train** » Fri Feb 15, 2019 2:42 pm

dunlop212 wrote:So ... Portland is likely to lose about half of their rotation to free agency without cap room to replace them. Perhaps a bit of exaggeration, but next year looks rocky unless they use assets (2019 FRP, CJ, Collins, Simons, or whatever has value) to clear space.

If the plan is to let the FAs go and replace them with G leaguers, then the 2020 FRP will be pretty valuable. Rebuild around that and Nurk.

No, the situation is not dire at all. We will have 5 free agents next summer. We have full bird rights to resign Aminu and Layman. IOW, we have an exception to the salary cap as large as we desire, to resign these free agents. Additionally, Layman is a RFA, so he can't leave the team unless he gets an offer from another team and we decide not to match. Kanter, Hood, and Curry are none-bird free agents. We have an exception to resign our non-bird free agents in addition to the MLE. The non-bird exception is 120% of our contract with the player this season. The Hood exception is $4.2M. The Curry exception is $3.4M. The Kanter exception is $2.6M. As it currently stands, our MLE next summer is $5.7M. It's not impossible for Blazers to retain all their free agents next summer, but it's unlikely that Kanter can be retained without increasing the size of our MLE by getting below the tax.

Blazinaway · Post #17 » by **Blazinaway** » Fri Feb 15, 2019 5:01 pm

I think we should try to move CJ for a solid younger player and "some" capspace

d-train · Post #18 » by **d-train** » Fri Feb 15, 2019 5:19 pm

Blazinaway wrote:I think we should try to move CJ for a solid younger player and "some" capspace

Your proposal is ignorant of the CBA rules. We wouldn't have cap room is we traded CJ and got nothing back. Additionally, cap room without players to attract the best free agents isn't worth much.

d-train · Post #19 » by **d-train** » Fri Feb 15, 2019 5:23 pm

We wouldn't have cap room if we gave away CJ and renounced bird rights to Aminu, Hood, Layman, Curry, and Kanter.

Fitz303 · Post #20 » by **Fitz303** » Fri Feb 15, 2019 5:29 pm

d-train wrote:
Blazinaway wrote:I think we should try to move CJ for a solid younger player and "some" capspace

Your proposal is ignorant of the CBA rules. We wouldn't have cap room is we traded CJ and got nothing back. Additionally, cap room without players to attract the best free agents isn't worth much.

It's not ignorant of the CBA rules at all. It's very possible within the CBA. It's a matter of whether or not a team would be willing to make that trade. For example, this summer Portland could trade CJ to the Lakers for Brandon Ingram (not saying they should), assuming the Lakers strike out in free agency. That would save the Blazers roughly 20 million in cap space, give them a starting SF, allow the Blazers to re-sign all of their players, and bump their MLE from the tax payer level to the standard. That was just the first team right off the top of my head. there are a bunch of teams who will have cap space, and the ability to make a move like this. I'm not saying it's the right move, or that the other team will do it. But, that is well within the CBA rules, and it does allow you to get better players in free agency at the same time.