2019 Offseason, June 30th 3PM PT.

[d-train]

Also, Bucks are likely going to lose some good players.

[d-train]

I just took a quick look at the offseason the Bucks are headed into. Their situation is similar to ours. I think Bucks and Blazers will navigate their payroll challenges just fine.

wut?

Milwaukee has 70.6M in guaranteed salary this summer. Portland has 127M, which is 57M more. That's not "similar". Yeah, they 'have' to re-sign Middleton and Brogdon, and maybe Mirotic & Lopez, but they will be starting out over 60M below the tax threshold. Portland will be starting out 3M below the threshold. And Milwaukee hasn't been a taxpayer yet...

You forgot Bledsoe. I assume they will let Hill walk. It won't be easy for them to find money to sign Mirotic. You do realize Brogdon could be their most expensive resign. Middleton and Bledsoe won't be cheap.

Do the math.

Edit: They might get Lopez on nontax MLE

[Wizenheimer]

I just took a quick look at the offseason the Bucks are headed into. Their situation is similar to ours. I think Bucks and Blazers will navigate their payroll challenges just fine.

wut?

Milwaukee has 70.6M in guaranteed salary this summer. Portland has 127M, which is 57M more. That's not "similar". Yeah, they 'have' to re-sign Middleton and Brogdon, and maybe Mirotic & Lopez, but they will be starting out over 60M below the tax threshold. Portland will be starting out 3M below the threshold. And Milwaukee hasn't been a taxpayer yet...

There situation is very similar. The main difference between teams is are they going to build a roster using cap room or are they going over the cap and limited to exceptions. Bucks and Blazers are the latter. And, Bucks have a VIP that can only be resigned with the MLE, sound familiar. Bucks are likely going to hard-cap themselves to retain their VIP. And, because of the hard-cap some of their free agents will probably take less money.

no it's not similar because unlike Portland, the Bucks have wide flexibility. They can cut Hill and Mirotic and have plenty of cap-space to re-sign Lopez, even with their cap-holds. They could re-sign Lopez for the tax-MLE and re-sign Middleton & Brogdon and still be well below the tax threshold. Mirotic was always likely to be a 1 year rental.

[Wizenheimer]

You forgot Bledsoe. I assume they will let Hill walk. It won't be easy for them to find money to sign Mirotic. You do realize Brogdon could be their most expensive resign. Middleton and Bledsoe won't be cheap.

Do the math.

Edit: They might get Lopez on nontax MLE

I did do the math and no, I didn't forget about Bledsoe; he signed a 4 year contract extension 2 months ago. He'll make 15.6M next season and that was included in the 70.6M of guaranteed contracts

http://www.basketballinsiders.com/milwaukee-bucks-team-salary/

[Masterfully]

I potential side benefit of Zach’s playoff play could be trade value this summer.

Look, I don’t think anyone on the forum has been a bigger Zach fan than me, going clear back to before he was drafted, but if you could use him in a Zach/Turner for A Davis type of trade I think you have to. Lillard doesn’t have time to wait for Zach to hit his prime.

[Blazinaway]

this playoff series with Denver should have opened everyone's eyes that the Aminu/Harkless pairing has to go and does not work well. We have to have at least another solid offensive threat, we've seen the results/benefits when Hood is playing well. Much rather keep one of Hark/Aminu and bring Hood back if possible or get someone similar. Frankly I would not mind if both Hark and Aminu did not return next yr, they just have too many short comings. Much rather start Zach at PF and give him a year and see what he can do, he's playing better

[DaVoiceMaster]

I've been pretty down on Aminu for some time now and do NOT want the resign him this summer. For that reason, I do not think the Blazers can use Collins as trade bait unless they are getting a quality PF in return. That pains me to say, as well because I have also been pretty down on Collins. He's a bonehead, but there are parts of his game I like. He has a lot to work on this summer offensively and in the weight room. Collins and Turner will NOT get you A Davis. Boston can beat that quite easily.

[Fitz303]

I've been pretty down on Aminu for some time now and do NOT want the resign him this summer. For that reason, I do not think the Blazers can use Collins as trade bait unless they are getting a quality PF in return. That pains me to say, as well because I have also been pretty down on Collins. He's a bonehead, but there are parts of his game I like. He has a lot to work on this summer offensively and in the weight room. Collins and Turner will NOT get you A Davis. Boston can beat that quite easily.

For sure Collins and Turner alone won't get AD. However, if Kyrie leaves (most people believe to be the case), I don't see Boston ponying up any real assets for a guy who'd likely be gone the next offseason. Boston likely goes into re-tool mode. Keep Tatum, Brown, Rozier, etc.. and use all of their upcoming draft picks on some young players who can develop with the young core already there.

[JasonStern]

what I imagine will actually happen is something more like:

* Aminu walks. Harkless expected to play more.

* Curry walks. Simons expected to play more.

* Kanter weighs his options and ultimately signs a 2 year contract at the tax payer MLE with player options. if a team does overpay for Kanter, then the Blazers use the tax payer MLE on a stop gap. (Noel? Davis? etc.)

* Hood either played himself out of Portland's price range or signs a 2 year contract at the BAE with player options. if Hood isn't retained, the BAE gets used on another reclamation project. There's also a chance that, if Kanter leaves, the Blazers use the tax payer MLE retaining Hood and then the BAE on a stop gap center.

* Layman walks or signs cheap - not $5m/season cheap, but like $3m/season cheap. And even then, retaining him might depend on whether the Blazers think they can find a better use for the BAE.

* Blazers will fish their 1st for cap savings from Leonard and Turner, but a late 1st in a weak draft likely doesn't have the value to other teams that Portland fans put on it. Wouldn't be surprised if Portland uses the 1st on another developmental player.

* Buy a 2nd round pick and draft a developmental player like Brian Bowen. Or a veteran minimum guy if a pick can't be acquired.

Lillard ($29.8)/Trent ($1.4)
McCollum ($27.5)/Hood? ($3.6)/Simons ($2.1)
Harkless ($10.8)/Turner ($18.6)/Bowen? ($0.8)
Collins ($4.2)/Labissiere ($2.3)
Kanter? ($5.7)/Nurkic ($12)/Leonard ($11.2)
+ (whoever gets drafted with a 1st ($1.5))

Puts us at ~$131.5 million for 14 players - just under the $132 million luxury tax. talent drops a bit, but Olshey is optimistic that the drop off will be offset by leaps from Collins, Simons, Trent, and Labissiere, plus the infusion of talent from whoever is drafted. And if the Blazers are slightly over the luxury tax line to start the season, some money saving move will be made closer to the trade deadline.

Not the sexiest off-season, but seems more realistic than many of the "if 50 stars all align perfectly, then..." ideas proposed - especially without a clear insight to what ownership is thinking.

[Epicurus]

Collins/Labissiere? A new position in NBA--the BF position-Boney Forward.

[Wizenheimer]

what I imagine will actually happen is something more like:

* Aminu walks. Harkless expected to play more.

* Curry walks. Simons expected to play more.

* Kanter weighs his options and ultimately signs a 2 year contract at the tax payer MLE with player options. if a team does overpay for Kanter, then the Blazers use the tax payer MLE on a stop gap. (Noel? Davis? etc.)

* Hood either played himself out of Portland's price range or signs a 2 year contract at the BAE with player options. if Hood isn't retained, the BAE gets used on another reclamation project. There's also a chance that, if Kanter leaves, the Blazers use the tax payer MLE retaining Hood and then the BAE on a stop gap center.

* Layman walks or signs cheap - not $5m/season cheap, but like $3m/season cheap. And even then, retaining him might depend on whether the Blazers think they can find a better use for the BAE.

* Blazers will fish their 1st for cap savings from Leonard and Turner, but a late 1st in a weak draft likely doesn't have the value to other teams that Portland fans put on it. Wouldn't be surprised if Portland uses the 1st on another developmental player.

* Buy a 2nd round pick and draft a developmental player like Brian Bowen. Or a veteran minimum guy if a pick can't be acquired.

Lillard ($29.8)/Trent ($1.4)
McCollum ($27.5)/Hood? ($3.6)/Simons ($2.1)
Harkless ($10.8)/Turner ($18.6)/Bowen? ($0.8)
Collins ($4.2)/Labissiere ($2.3)
Kanter? ($5.7)/Nurkic ($12)/Leonard ($11.2)
+ (whoever gets drafted with a 1st ($1.5))

Puts us at ~$131.5 million for 14 players - just under the $132 million luxury tax. talent drops a bit, but Olshey is optimistic that the drop off will be offset by leaps from Collins, Simons, Trent, and Labissiere, plus the infusion of talent from whoever is drafted. And if the Blazers are slightly over the luxury tax line to start the season, some money saving move will be made closer to the trade deadline.

Not the sexiest off-season, but seems more realistic than many of the "if 50 stars all align perfectly, then..." ideas proposed - especially without a clear insight to what ownership is thinking.

your math is off...more on that in a sec

the BAE is the same as the full-MLE in that using it hard-caps a team at the Apron. Besides that, Hood's non-Bird is higher than a BAE and they'd use that. 4.1M vs 3.6M

* the first round pick would be 2M, not 1.5: (500K) +500K
* Harkless at 11.5M not 10.8M - (700K) +1.2M
* Nurk now has a likely bonus of 1.25M on top of his salary - (1.25) +2.5M
* you forgot about the stretched salaries of Varejao, Nicholson, & Ezeli - (4.76) +7.1M
* Hood's non-Bird - (500K) + 7.6M

somewhere around 139M in salaries & somewhere around 11M in tax

[DaVoiceMaster]

Between Harkless and Nurk, how did you go from 1.2M to 4.5M when simply adding Nurk's 1.25M? Did I miss something?

[d-train]

I've been pretty down on Aminu for some time now and do NOT want the resign him this summer. For that reason, I do not think the Blazers can use Collins as trade bait unless they are getting a quality PF in return. That pains me to say, as well because I have also been pretty down on Collins. He's a bonehead, but there are parts of his game I like. He has a lot to work on this summer offensively and in the weight room. Collins and Turner will NOT get you A Davis. Boston can beat that quite easily.

For sure Collins and Turner alone won't get AD. However, if Kyrie leaves (most people believe to be the case), I don't see Boston ponying up any real assets for a guy who'd likely be gone the next offseason. Boston likely goes into re-tool mode. Keep Tatum, Brown, Rozier, etc.. and use all of their upcoming draft picks on some young players who can develop with the young core already there.

Boston might be OK with Kyrie leaving and getting nothing back. I'm sure Celtics would rather get some usable assets than nothing, but they might rather have nothing than Kyrie.

[Wizenheimer]

Between Harkless and Nurk, how did you go from 1.2M to 4.5M when simply adding Nurk's 1.25M? Did I miss something?

apparently, by new math...my bad, I'll correct that

[Fitz303]

I've been pretty down on Aminu for some time now and do NOT want the resign him this summer. For that reason, I do not think the Blazers can use Collins as trade bait unless they are getting a quality PF in return. That pains me to say, as well because I have also been pretty down on Collins. He's a bonehead, but there are parts of his game I like. He has a lot to work on this summer offensively and in the weight room. Collins and Turner will NOT get you A Davis. Boston can beat that quite easily.

For sure Collins and Turner alone won't get AD. However, if Kyrie leaves (most people believe to be the case), I don't see Boston ponying up any real assets for a guy who'd likely be gone the next offseason. Boston likely goes into re-tool mode. Keep Tatum, Brown, Rozier, etc.. and use all of their upcoming draft picks on some young players who can develop with the young core already there.

Boston might be OK with Kyrie leaving and getting nothing back. I'm sure Celtics would rather get some usable assets than nothing, but they might rather have nothing than Kyrie.

My response was in regards to trading assets to get Anthony Davis, if Kyrie has already walked this summer, or is planning to. I'm sure Boston would like assets for Kyrie, but that's likely not going to happen, as there are plenty of teams with cap space to sign him outright

[d-train]

For sure Collins and Turner alone won't get AD. However, if Kyrie leaves (most people believe to be the case), I don't see Boston ponying up any real assets for a guy who'd likely be gone the next offseason. Boston likely goes into re-tool mode. Keep Tatum, Brown, Rozier, etc.. and use all of their upcoming draft picks on some young players who can develop with the young core already there.

Boston might be OK with Kyrie leaving and getting nothing back. I'm sure Celtics would rather get some usable assets than nothing, but they might rather have nothing than Kyrie.

My response was in regards to trading assets to get Anthony Davis, if Kyrie has already walked this summer, or is planning to. I'm sure Boston would like assets for Kyrie, but that's likely not going to happen, as there are plenty of teams with cap space to sign him outright

Yeah, I know, if Kyrie leaves Boston, it would likely be through free agency and Celtics would get nothing. I'm not sure Celtics wouldn't prefer he just leave rather than resign him to a max free agent deal.

[Fitz303]

Boston might be OK with Kyrie leaving and getting nothing back. I'm sure Celtics would rather get some usable assets than nothing, but they might rather have nothing than Kyrie.

My response was in regards to trading assets to get Anthony Davis, if Kyrie has already walked this summer, or is planning to. I'm sure Boston would like assets for Kyrie, but that's likely not going to happen, as there are plenty of teams with cap space to sign him outright

Yeah, I know, if Kyrie leaves Boston, it would likely be through free agency and Celtics would get nothing. I'm not sure Celtics wouldn't prefer he just leave rather than resign him to a max free agent deal.

Gotcha. ya I would agree with that. I just dont think they'd make a run at AD at that point.

[DusterBuster]

People here should really listen to the latest Woj pod with Ryan Rusillo. A lot of Blazer talk and talk about building rosters, ficklness of fans to consider being a 50 win team a "failure" and the over importance fans place on cap space. Russilo has an interesting story about him talking to Ainge and Ainges viewpoint of the importance of cap space.

[Butter]

People here should really listen to the latest Woj pod with Ryan Rusillo. A lot of Blazer talk and talk about building rosters, ficklness of fans to consider being a 50 win team a "failure" and the over importance fans place on cap space. Russilo has an interesting story about him talking to Ainge and Ainges viewpoint of the importance of cap space.

Link?

[d-train]

People here should really listen to the latest Woj pod with Ryan Rusillo. A lot of Blazer talk and talk about building rosters, ficklness of fans to consider being a 50 win team a "failure" and the over importance fans place on cap space. Russilo has an interesting story about him talking to Ainge and Ainges viewpoint of the importance of cap space.

Link?

I just googled woj pod