2019 Offseason, June 30th 3PM PT.

[d-train]

I hate listening to podcasts. I don't have the patience to listen to all the bs. Even though I hate reading, I'd rather read because I can speed through the 90% bs and get right to the good stuff.

[d-train]

If you go to the 53 minute mark of the podcast, they are talking about the moment captured in my signature. It must be about 11 years ago. That's how old my signature is.

[DusterBuster]

People here should really listen to the latest Woj pod with Ryan Rusillo. A lot of Blazer talk and talk about building rosters, ficklness of fans to consider being a 50 win team a "failure" and the over importance fans place on cap space. Russilo has an interesting story about him talking to Ainge and Ainges viewpoint of the importance of cap space.

Link?

https://art19.com/shows/thewojpod

Most recent one with Ryan Russillo.

[DusterBuster]

The general TL;DL version of what was said was generally as follows....

A lot of praise was given to the Blazers, Olshey and Lillard respectively for keeping the team together even after last years misstep in the playoffs. Praise for Lillard also for his loyalty to the team + city even with all the outside noise that he and CJ can't play together or that he needs to be in a big city to win. Woj said something to the effect of "why would Lillard want to goto LA [Lakers] and give up what he has in Portland".

When discussing how fickle fanbases and media is towards team - topic at hand was Woj mentioning how many people were saying the Blazers should blow it up after the NOP playoff sweep - Russillo said to the effect of "So what are we doing now, we're giving teams 2 years to figure it out... and that's it?" Woj agreed about how the impatient fan bases are for success and how having a good 50 win team in the NBA isn't enough for some people.

Woj mentioned how Portland could have just blown it up and got 2 or 3 lottery picks in return for Dame and CJ, but the overwhelming likelihood is that they wouldn't be getting players as good as Dame and CJ with whatever those picks turned out to be.

They then got on the topic of cap space, I believe it started from a discussion of what happened with Kanter. Russillo said he always used to harp on teams and be hyper focused on cap space until he had a chat with Danny Ainge. Ainge basically said - why are you so focused on cap space? It's a losers market. He said he'd much prefer trading for a guy because you absolutely know what you're getting.

[wco81]

I think it's only on RealGM and similar forums that the notion of 50-wins and maybe one or two rounds of playoffs are not good enough.

The concept of treadmilling isn't that widespread among the casual fans, many of whom go to NBA games.

Reality is that in any given decade, only a handful of teams win the title and every other team "fail" in the sense that they don't win it all. Even fewer teams win titles in a decade if there's a dynasty or team of the decade.

I don't think the Trailblazers saw decline in attendance or dip in local TV ratings this season after being swept last year did they?

And likely there won't be huge consequences if they lose in game 7 either.

As Hood's run shows, a team doesn't have to make huge moves in free agency or big trades or get a high lotto pick to improve the team's performance in the playoffs.

So that might be an argument for keeping a top 4 playoffs seed team together because it may not take much to take a step up in the playoffs.

And Charles Barkley said Blazers are going to the Finals this year.

[JasonStern]

I think it's only on RealGM and similar forums that the notion of 50-wins and maybe one or two rounds of playoffs are not good enough.

Read on Twitter

And Charles Barkley said Blazers are going to the Finals this year.

that was before Nurkić went down. /sigh

[wco81]

Well Lakers fans have entitlement.

They're spoiled though so of course it's to be expected.

I think Chuck said it during the first round.

[JasonStern]

https://www.nbcsports.com/northwest/portland-trail-blazers/neil-olshey-offers-insight-deals-kept-blazers-alive-playoffs

[GEE]

Oh how things can change...

Considering we are now 1 of only 4 teams remaining... we will get lots of pub. As a result some really good players might consider for a minute, wearing the Red & Black next year. Also, the trade value of every current Trailblazer just went up.

Could be a very, very interesting off-season. I could see Portland landing a star forward in the off-season, but the test for me is, WHICH F/A's WANT TO BE A BLAZER? I say this with AD in mind, but I can imagine a potential deal for many other big names. Olshey should be busy talking with the big agents, early and often this summer.

Are we now, a good "Free-Agent destination"???

[Wizenheimer]

Oh how things can change...

Considering we are now 1 of only 4 teams remaining... we will get lots of pub. As a result some really good players might consider for a minute, wearing the Red & Black next year. Also, the trade value of every current Trailblazer just went up.

Could be a very, very interesting off-season. I could see Portland landing a star forward in the off-season, but the test for me is, WHICH F/A's WANT TO BE A BLAZER? I say this with AD in mind, but I can imagine a potential deal for many other big names. Olshey should be busy talking with the big agents, early and often this summer.

Are we now, a good "Free-Agent destination"???

fool me once, shame on you; fool me 37 times, shame on me

[Blazinaway]

Oh how things can change...

Considering we are now 1 of only 4 teams remaining... we will get lots of pub. As a result some really good players might consider for a minute, wearing the Red & Black next year. Also, the trade value of every current Trailblazer just went up.

Could be a very, very interesting off-season. I could see Portland landing a star forward in the off-season, but the test for me is, WHICH F/A's WANT TO BE A BLAZER? I say this with AD in mind, but I can imagine a potential deal for many other big names. Olshey should be busy talking with the big agents, early and often this summer.

Are we now, a good "Free-Agent destination"???

also think of the good "rotaion type" players who miss out on a big deal this summer but want to play on a winning team with a rep of a great place to play and want to re-build their value for the followin year - gotta think they look very positively at POR with the success of guys like Kanter/Hood/Curry. I could see some nice players accepting 1 yr deals or the 1 and 1 thing.

[DusterBuster]

Oh how things can change...

Considering we are now 1 of only 4 teams remaining... we will get lots of pub. As a result some really good players might consider for a minute, wearing the Red & Black next year. Also, the trade value of every current Trailblazer just went up.

Could be a very, very interesting off-season. I could see Portland landing a star forward in the off-season, but the test for me is, WHICH F/A's WANT TO BE A BLAZER? I say this with AD in mind, but I can imagine a potential deal for many other big names. Olshey should be busy talking with the big agents, early and often this summer.

Are we now, a good "Free-Agent destination"???

fool me once, shame on you; fool me 37 times, shame on me

Yeah, the Blazers are never ever ever going to be a "FA destination". Playing in the Pacific NW is simply no ones dream location.

The real hope shouldn't be the Blazers turning into a FA destination, the hope should be the Blazers become an attractive destination for unhappy stars who are demanding trades. You should want a guy who's disgruntled and wanting out of his current spot to look at the Blazers as a place he would consider on his list of top spots or at the very least give some consideration to resigning at if he's traded to them.

Ideally though, the Blazers best chance for improving always will be trades, the draft and the buyout market.

I'm still cautiously optimistic that the Blazers will make some big moves this summer with their expiring deals and maybe some of the young guys or a couple picks. If the Blazers want to make a 1st rounder available, they should dangle their 2022 FRP - nearly unprotected - for teams. The hope is other teams gamble on the Blazers losing Lillard in FA and the Blazers are in full tank mode that year while the Blazers gamble is that they're pretty confident he's staying post-current-contract (which they should be at this point and time). I think if you dangle 2 FRPs, Turner's EC + a guy like Simons or maybe even Collins after his solid playoff run, I think you should potentially get back a pretty strong player.

[DusterBuster]

Oh how things can change...

Considering we are now 1 of only 4 teams remaining... we will get lots of pub. As a result some really good players might consider for a minute, wearing the Red & Black next year. Also, the trade value of every current Trailblazer just went up.

Could be a very, very interesting off-season. I could see Portland landing a star forward in the off-season, but the test for me is, WHICH F/A's WANT TO BE A BLAZER? I say this with AD in mind, but I can imagine a potential deal for many other big names. Olshey should be busy talking with the big agents, early and often this summer.

Are we now, a good "Free-Agent destination"???

also think of the good "rotaion type" players who miss out on a big deal this summer but want to play on a winning team with a rep of a great place to play and want to re-build their value for the followin year - gotta think they look very positively at POR with the success of guys like Kanter/Hood/Curry. I could see some nice players accepting 1 yr deals or the 1 and 1 thing.

Agreed, I think Portland has really developed a great reputation as a place where players can go to rehab their career if its fallen off the rails about. The Blazers have had a long history of being able to do that under Stotts and Lillard, but I think this year in particular has really put a bright spotlight on that fact for players and agents.

So yeah, the idea of Portland ever being a big-name FA spot, I think you can consider that a non-starter, but that doesn't mean you can't be success with base-hits in FA. That's really all it should be for he Blazers - as I've said for awhile now, I think cap space is wildly overrated and too hyper-focused on.

[Wizenheimer]

I'm still cautiously optimistic that the Blazers will make some big moves this summer with their expiring deals and maybe some of the young guys or a couple picks. If the Blazers want to make a 1st rounder available, they should dangle their 2022 FRP - nearly unprotected - for teams. The hope is other teams gamble on the Blazers losing Lillard in FA and the Blazers are in full tank mode that year while the Blazers gamble is that they're pretty confident he's staying post-current-contract (which they should be at this point and time). I think if you dangle 2 FRPs, Turner's EC + a guy like Simons or maybe even Collins after his solid playoff run, I think you should potentially get back a pretty strong player.

I've been thinking about trades along those lines a lot lately

something I've mentioned 2 or 3 times since the playoffs started: I like both Aminu and Mo. But they've been the starters for 4 years now, and for 4 years it's been pretty obvious that Portland needed an upgrade at one of those positions. Aminu might work as a starter if the Blazers had a Tobias Harris or a Khris Middleton at SF; Mo could work as a starter if the Blazers had a Blake Griffin or a Kevin Love at PF. But having both Mo and Aminu in the starting lineup installs too much offensive inconsistency and too little floor spacing. Their defense is important but it's not enough to offset their offense, and that in turn puts too much stress on Dame/CJ to score lots of points. I also think it encourages hero-ball and that's rarely a good thing

so how to build on where the Blazers are right now and upgrade the team? The only viable option option over the next year is a trade. Portland doesn't have great assets to dangle, but their cupboard isn't bare. And yes, all their future picks should be available as well as players like Simons and Trent; and of course, Turner, Meyers, and Mo..in that order

my first thought was Kevin Love because I'd imagine the Cavs are having contract regret. Turner + Meyers + firsts + Simon...something like that. I think Love would fit in pretty seamlessly into the starting lineup and a big rotation of Nurkic(Kanter)-Love-Zach would have major versatility and lots of firepower. There are just so many red flags to this idea though. Love's injury history; Kanter and Love on defense....yeeeeesh; but mostly, Love's contract...it's just too big IMO and Portland would be in major jeopardy of repeater tax

but maybe there are 'smaller' trades out there like that one....problem is I don't see them right now but that doesn't mean they aren't available or won't be once the season gets going. Of course, once the season gets going the value of expiring contracts will drop a lot IMO because a whole bunch of them will be on the market. Be better for Portland to strike early.

the idea of Portland ever being a big-name FA spot, I think you can consider that a non-starter, but that doesn't mean you can't be success with base-hits in FA. That's really all it should be for he Blazers - as I've said for awhile now, I think cap space is wildly overrated and too hyper-focused on.

it is overrated as some kind of magic bullet to solve all issues. It's not overrated at all in terms of flexibility. Olshey really overrated the power of his own cap-space in 2016. But at other times he's used it very well: signing Aminu & Davis; trading for Lopez, Mo, and Napier. He used to to trade for a pick but he overpaid considerably and wasted the pick on Swanigan. Can't win them all though

it would be nice if the Blazers had about 15M in space this summer then they could re-sign Kanter and Hood no problem

and, this summer is really looking pivotal to me. Portland is at their highest trajectory since the Pippen team. Better than the Roy-Aldridge and the Dame-Aldridge teams. Unfortunately they also may be as fragile because of their straight-jacketed flexibility. I'm hopeful that Jody Allen will be ok with some tax next season, but Olshey has a ton of balls to juggle and he'll be doing it under a really low ceiling

if he brings back the same team minus Kanter and Hood, it will be disappointing as hell. I'm hopeful but I sure ain't confident

[BlazersBroncos]

I think we are going to have to rely on internal improvements. We are not going to be able to afford Love or Blake, and after them the market is quite dry for that SF or PF that can really score and is potentially attainable for expirings, picks and middle tier prospects. Otto Porter would have been such a great fit, but his deal is pretty outrageous as well.

Lets say we made a move for Love, using ET/Myers/R1/R1 while also getting Hood and Kanter back on one year deals. Next offseason, there is no way we can afford Hood and Kanter again. And I am not sure, at all, if I would rather have Love than both Hood and Kanter. I think there is huge issue with playoff Love and his ability to be murdered in the PNR. Honestly he is probably best as a center moving forward IMO.

IDK, a lot is gonna ride on Zach keeping this great playoff development up, Hood getting resigned and comfortable as the undisputed 6th man / 3rd scoring wing and Simons stepping in for Curry next season.

[zzaj]

I think we are going to have to rely on internal improvements. We are not going to be able to afford Love or Blake, and after them the market is quite dry for that SF or PF that can really score and is potentially attainable for expirings, picks and middle tier prospects. Otto Porter would have been such a great fit, but his deal is pretty outrageous as well.

Lets say we made a move for Love, using ET/Myers/R1/R1 while also getting Hood and Kanter back on one year deals. Next offseason, there is no way we can afford Hood and Kanter again. And I am not sure, at all, if I would rather have Love than both Hood and Kanter. I think there is huge issue with playoff Love and his ability to be murdered in the PNR. Honestly he is probably best as a center moving forward IMO.

IDK, a lot is gonna ride on Zach keeping this great playoff development up, Hood getting resigned and comfortable as the undisputed 6th man / 3rd scoring wing and Simons stepping in for Curry next season.

I’ll add Skal to that list of Zach and Simons in terms of internal improvement. He’s shown almost zero growth as a player since coming into the league, but that time was largely spent under the completely dysfunctional Kings of a coupla years ago. Kid is only 23 years old. If he can make some improvement into even an average rotation piece, that’s good for the Blazers...

[Blazinaway]

EZ decision: let Aminu go

[HoopsFanAZ]

Okay. I recant.

Wizenheimer brings back THE relevant point that SF and PF are too weak with Mo and Chief starting. The Nuggets series absolutely showed it and Game 1 with GState Is more of the same. (The atrocious D with wide open 3’s and poor guard shooting didn’t help.)

Hood and Collins would be better next year. Mo getting plenty at both spots. Chief? Uh ... bringing him back is no longer a forgone conclusion for me.

Good luck, Olshey.

[GEE]

Oh how things can change...

Considering we are now 1 of only 4 teams remaining... we will get lots of pub. As a result some really good players might consider for a minute, wearing the Red & Black next year. Also, the trade value of every current Trailblazer just went up.

Could be a very, very interesting off-season. I could see Portland landing a star forward in the off-season, but the test for me is, WHICH F/A's WANT TO BE A BLAZER? I say this with AD in mind, but I can imagine a potential deal for many other big names. Olshey should be busy talking with the big agents, early and often this summer.

Are we now, a good "Free-Agent destination"???

fool me once, shame on you; fool me 37 times, shame on me

Yeah, the Blazers are never ever ever going to be a "FA destination". Playing in the Pacific NW is simply no ones dream location.

The real hope shouldn't be the Blazers turning into a FA destination, the hope should be the Blazers become an attractive destination for unhappy stars who are demanding trades. You should want a guy who's disgruntled and wanting out of his current spot to look at the Blazers as a place he would consider on his list of top spots or at the very least give some consideration to resigning at if he's traded to them.

Ideally though, the Blazers best chance for improving always will be trades, the draft and the buyout market.

I'm still cautiously optimistic that the Blazers will make some big moves this summer with their expiring deals and maybe some of the young guys or a couple picks. If the Blazers want to make a 1st rounder available, they should dangle their 2022 FRP - nearly unprotected - for teams. The hope is other teams gamble on the Blazers losing Lillard in FA and the Blazers are in full tank mode that year while the Blazers gamble is that they're pretty confident he's staying post-current-contract (which they should be at this point and time). I think if you dangle 2 FRPs, Turner's EC + a guy like Simons or maybe even Collins after his solid playoff run, I think you should potentially get back a pretty strong player.

Interesting take(s) DB... You say P-Town will never, ever ever ever be a F/A destination, and then make several cases as to why we would be. Is this the polar opposite of "agree to disagree"? Also would note that Portland, generally, has been one of the biggest destinations for ALL kinds of transplants and reclamation projects. That's the beauty of Portland... Flocks of people moving to the great NW every year... for decades now. It's not OKC!

[GEE]

As for roster changes and targets, it's a bit too early still, but speculation has begun to brew since the ping-pong balls have dropped. Every player AND coach will get their annual review, and IMO it will start with Stotts, then Dame, and so on down the line. As I said, it's early, but Hood is the only guy that I'm certain I want resigned. With Simmons... Curry is the first to go, and Kanter is no automatic choice. Assuming the Dame/CJ pairing stays intact, This is where I'd start:

PG Dame(35) / Turner(13) / Simmons(?)
SG Hood(16) / CJ(32) / Trent(0)
SF Harkless(32) / Hood(16) / Layman(?)
PF Collins(32) / Slal(?)
C Nurkic(32) / Leonard(?)

Now start targeting that perfect fit player... Trade, S&T, Draft ???