Tracking the Playoff Race

monopoman · Post #101 » by **monopoman** » Thu Mar 21, 2019 5:41 am

bondom34 wrote:I hope this doesn't sound bad because I've been an OKC fan a while, but tbh I kinda don't care about them sans-Westbrook and want you guys to do well. Rooting for you probably at least as much now honestly

Appreciate the kind words, this is a team that is very easy to root for all high character guys, and a leader that busts his ass night in night out but won't ever throw his fellow players under the bus win or lose even on nights where they were clearly at fault.

Post #102 » by **bondom34** » Thu Mar 21, 2019 5:44 am

monopoman wrote:
bondom34 wrote:I hope this doesn't sound bad because I've been an OKC fan a while, but tbh I kinda don't care about them sans-Westbrook and want you guys to do well. Rooting for you probably at least as much now honestly

Appreciate the kind words, this is a team that is very easy to root for all high character guys, and a leader that busts his ass night in night out but won't ever throw his fellow players under the bus win or lose even on nights where they were clearly at fault.

Russ is and always will be my guy, and I have a spot for OKC but been a Dame and CJ fan a while. Grew up not too far from Lehigh so always followed CJ and Lillard's just a pro's pro, he and Westbrook have more in common than it seems at times. Would love for them to break through.

Plus as frustrating as he can be Kanter's a great locker room guy. Hoping for Houston to get embarrassed as usual is my only real team I don't want haha.

Post #103 » by **The Sebastian Express** » Fri Mar 22, 2019 2:39 am

Certainly can appreciate Utah's loss to Atlanta today.

monopoman · Post #104 » by **monopoman** » Fri Mar 22, 2019 2:58 am

Indeed Utah losing there helps out the Blazers quite a bit, especially since Utah has the easiest remaining schedule of any West team. Denver won today also which is a bit annoying but I doubt we can catch them they would have to really have a pretty big meltdown to fall from #2.

Dzon Dilindzer · Post #105 » by **Dzon Dilindzer** » Fri Mar 22, 2019 2:02 pm

looking at the standings and schedule, it looks more and more likely that were gonna face utah jazz in the 1st round, but now it remains to be seen who gets the home court advantage... i dont think okc, spurs or la clipps can get 4th or 5th seed

however, nothing is over until its offically over, so tonight is the great chance for okc and spurs to take another loss, theyre playing toronto and houston on the road

Wizenheimer · Post #106 » by **Wizenheimer** » Fri Mar 22, 2019 4:05 pm

The Sebastian Express wrote:Certainly can appreciate Utah's loss to Atlanta today.

monopoman wrote:Indeed Utah losing there helps out the Blazers quite a bit, especially since Utah has the easiest remaining schedule of any West team. Denver won today also which is a bit annoying but I doubt we can catch them they would have to really have a pretty big meltdown to fall from #2.

Denver was on the edge of being out of reach more than a week ago. Once they beat Boston, on the road, they became nearly impossible to catch. They will own the tiebreaker so their 4.5 game lead is effectively a 5.5 game lead (and that's a 6 game lead in the loss column). If Portland goes 9-2 the rest of the way, Denver only needs to go 5-7.

any of the teams can potentially meltdown over the last dozen games, including Portland. The way Portland has gained those half game advantages is when the other playoff teams have booted away games on the road to lottery teams while Portland has been playing games at home. There's going to be some role reversal soon. 6 of Portland's last 9 games are on the road; one of those road games is at Denver and that will be a major challenge. Blazers have a 4 game in 6 nights road trip that includes a back2back. And they close the season with a road/home back2back. Portland has several 'trap' games left on their schedule, and as Houston and Utah have seen recently, those trap games can bite because you never know when a team going nowhere is going to give maximum effort and get in a shooting zone

I think Portland will probably get either the 3rd or 4th seed and HCA. Their 2 game lead (wins) on the other 4 teams is a little slim since OKC and the Spurs own the tiebreakers and Utah probably will. I don't think it matters much whether they get the 3rd or 4th seed. It's unclear whether GS or Denver will be 1st seed, and there are no easy match-ups unless maybe it's the Clippers.

I still say the most important factor isn't seeding or HCA, it's entering the playoffs with Dame not being worn down & exhausted because Portland was hell-bent on winning every game

zzaj · Post #107 » by **zzaj** » Fri Mar 22, 2019 8:35 pm

Rockets vs. Spurs tonight. Sheesh, not sure who to root for...

I think I'll go Spurs even though they have been red-hot lately. A Rockets loss makes a tie with the Blazers for 3rd. I REALLY hate the 4-5 matchup--would love for the Blazers to eventually be 3rd instead of 4th.

d-train · Post #108 » by **d-train** » Fri Mar 22, 2019 10:32 pm

Rockets are going to win more games than Blazers, while Spurs are going to win fewer games. So, do you want to punch up or down.

Dzon Dilindzer · Post #109 » by **Dzon Dilindzer** » Sat Mar 23, 2019 12:47 am

zzaj wrote:Rockets vs. Spurs tonight. Sheesh, not sure who to root for...

I think I'll go Spurs even though they have been red-hot lately. A Rockets loss makes a tie with the Blazers for 3rd. I REALLY hate the 4-5 matchup--would love for the Blazers to eventually be 3rd instead of 4th.

so you would rather face okc or spurs than utah jazz

sure, theres chance utah jazz gets 3rd seed, but id bet on houston

JasonStern · Post #110 » by **JasonStern** » Sat Mar 23, 2019 12:54 am

https://www.actionnetwork.com/nba/western-conference-playoff-picture-analysis-prediction-2019

DusterBuster · Post #111 » by **DusterBuster** » Sat Mar 23, 2019 1:36 am

d-train wrote:Rockets are going to win more games than Blazers, while Spurs are going to win fewer games. So, do you want to punch up or down.

I think its gonna be crapshoot who the Blazers end up playing because of how close 5-8 will be record wise. So I don't see much use in playing for a specific opponent since I don't think that's a thing they'll have much control over. With that in mind, I'd rather have the Blazers punch up to try and get the highest seed possible - which means I'm hoping the Rockets drop a couple more games than most expect.

monopoman · Post #112 » by **monopoman** » Sat Mar 23, 2019 2:39 am

Well right now Rockets have 2 wins more than the Blazers but have played 2 more games. If the Blazers can continue to win at a high rate to close the season they will be knocking on the Rockets door for that 3rd seed. I agree though 5th-8th could literally come down to the last 1-2 games of the season for every team in that pile. Tough to go after a certain match-up in seeding when so few games separate those 4 teams.

zzaj · Post #113 » by **zzaj** » Sat Mar 23, 2019 3:35 am

Dzon Dilindzer wrote:
zzaj wrote:Rockets vs. Spurs tonight. Sheesh, not sure who to root for...

I think I'll go Spurs even though they have been red-hot lately. A Rockets loss makes a tie with the Blazers for 3rd. I REALLY hate the 4-5 matchup--would love for the Blazers to eventually be 3rd instead of 4th.

so you would rather face okc or spurs than utah jazz

sure, theres chance utah jazz gets 3rd seed, but id bet on houston

Each one of them has unique strengths that can give the Blazers fits. But you're right, at least the Blazers beat Utah the last couple times they've faced each other. They've beaten the Rockets a couple of times, but those wins came against a Houston team that wasn't playing anywhere near as together as they are now that CP3 and Capela are healthy.

Aside from a couple of games here and there, the Blazers haven't fared that well against the elite in the West this season. That's part of the reason I suppose most pundits view them as a first round fodder in the playoffs.

monopoman · Post #114 » by **monopoman** » Sat Mar 23, 2019 6:41 am

zzaj wrote:
Dzon Dilindzer wrote:
zzaj wrote:Rockets vs. Spurs tonight. Sheesh, not sure who to root for...

I think I'll go Spurs even though they have been red-hot lately. A Rockets loss makes a tie with the Blazers for 3rd. I REALLY hate the 4-5 matchup--would love for the Blazers to eventually be 3rd instead of 4th.

so you would rather face okc or spurs than utah jazz

sure, theres chance utah jazz gets 3rd seed, but id bet on houston

Each one of them has unique strengths that can give the Blazers fits. But you're right, at least the Blazers beat Utah the last couple times they've faced each other. They've beaten the Rockets a couple of times, but those wins came against a Houston team that wasn't playing anywhere near as together as they are now that CP3 and Capela are healthy.

Aside from a couple of games here and there, the Blazers haven't fared that well against the elite in the West this season. That's part of the reason I suppose most pundits view them as a first round fodder in the playoffs.

Meh, this team is better than they were last year hopefully that is enough to see some improvement once the playoffs start. The stats show that this team is more formidable than they were last season, and the fact that we mostly faced depleted rosters last year in the regular season backs this up. We have more wins overall when this season more teams were fully healthy or at least fairly healthy this year.

I also recall some heroics from Lillard to win a good chunk of games last season, and this time it seems like we don't need him to come from 5 down with 2 minutes to go or something as often.

This doesn't guarantee we get out of the first round, but we are in the West and no one really has a cake walk match-up in the first round except maybe the 1st seed. **** if Denver gets knocked out in the first round as the 2 seed I wouldn't be extremely surprised.

Dzon Dilindzer · Post #115 » by **Dzon Dilindzer** » Sat Mar 23, 2019 11:27 am

its really bold thing to say portland team has improved, based on a regular season... we got the 3rd seed (but all things considered, that was not impressive) last season and got our ass spanked by new orleans pelicans

also, terry stotts, lets see if he improved, hes the one that worries me... dame says people are sleeping on us, but they havent done anything to deserve some attention... regular season means nothing, do it in the playoffs and team will get the attention

playoffs will show if the team and the coach improved!

Post #116 » by **Moonbeam** » Sat Mar 23, 2019 11:54 am

Dzon Dilindzer wrote:its really bold thing to say portland team has improved, based on a regular season... we got the 3rd seed (but all things considered, that was not impressive) last season and got our ass spanked by new orleans pelicans

also, terry stotts, lets see if he improved, hes the one that worries me... dame says people are sleeping on us, but they havent done anything to deserve some attention... regular season means nothing, do it in the playoffs and team will get the attention

playoffs will show if the team and the coach improved!

Well, there is data to suggest that Portland HAS improved this year. Their SRS has jumped from 2.6 to 4.1, and last year they faced a lot of teams that were missing their best player due to injury/rest, which hasn't really been the case this year. Yes, the playoffs last year were a huge letdown, and I agree that there is reason to pause before anointing them contenders or anything like that. However, there is evidence that the Blazers are a better team this year.

Post #117 » by **DaVoiceMaster** » Sat Mar 23, 2019 1:18 pm

Dzon Dilindzer wrote:its really bold thing to say portland team has improved, based on a regular season... we got the 3rd seed (but all things considered, that was not impressive) last season and got our ass spanked by new orleans pelicans

also, terry stotts, lets see if he improved, hes the one that worries me... dame says people are sleeping on us, but they havent done anything to deserve some attention... regular season means nothing, do it in the playoffs and team will get the attention

playoffs will show if the team and the coach improved!

That's kind of a silly thing to say. The Blazers have definitely improved and I don't need any statistics to see that (thanks Moonbeam). The eye test tells me they have improved. Now, have they improved leaps and bounds? I dunno about that, but they definitely improved and I think most people can see that.

dunlop212 · Post #118 » by **dunlop212** » Sat Mar 23, 2019 2:15 pm

Nurc is better this year. IIRC Dame was banged up a bit at the end of the season (so was Moe). The bench is better. They will likely win 50 plus games. No question they are better.

Looks like they will miss GS and Denver in the first round, the toughest two matchups. People don't respect Denver, but they will have HCA. Denver (Broncos too) historically have the league's biggest HCA because of the altitude.

Wizenheimer · Post #119 » by **Wizenheimer** » Sat Mar 23, 2019 5:05 pm

I think the Blazers are better this season

but they really aren't significantly better...more like incrementally better

Nurkic is better this season and pretty clearly the 2nd best player, especially when gauged by impact on both ends of the floor. Layman is better. Hood is better than Connaughton although I think Napier was probably better than Curry. Kanter is not better than Ed Davis though. But Mo Harkless appears to be healthy winding down toward the playoffs

CJ's status is a big question, although I do think there are hints that Dame plays better without CJ sharing so many minutes on the floor

but I don't think Portland is better enough to survive a series when Dame is limited by intense defensive focus. That vulnerability is still there, and I do not believe Portland has enough talent to make teams pay for focusing on Dame. They didn't last season, wasn't even close IMO, and I don't see any Blazer who can force a defense to abandon the 'stop-Dame-at-all-costs' game-plan. The one piece of good news is that no team has the guard combo of Holiday/Rondo or a PnR buster like AD

zzaj · Post #120 » by **zzaj** » Sat Mar 23, 2019 5:41 pm

Wizenheimer wrote:I think the Blazers are better this season

but they really aren't significantly better...more like incrementally better

Nurkic is better this season and pretty clearly the 2nd best player, especially when gauged by impact on both ends of the floor. Layman is better. Hood is better than Connaughton although I think Napier was probably better than Curry. Kanter is not better than Ed Davis though. But Mo Harkless appears to be healthy winding down toward the playoffs

CJ's status is a big question, although I do think there are hints that Dame plays better without CJ sharing so many minutes on the floor

but I don't think Portland is better enough to survive a series when Dame is limited by intense defensive focus. That vulnerability is still there, and I do not believe Portland has enough talent to make teams pay for focusing on Dame. They didn't last season, wasn't even close IMO, and I don't see any Blazer who can force a defense to abandon the 'stop-Dame-at-all-costs' game-plan. The one piece of good news is that no team has the guard combo of Holiday/Rondo or a PnR buster like AD

I think most people outside the Blazer board overlook this when they judge that playoff series. Two big, good defensive guards that also play both ends (Holiday can score and Rondo can play make) are pretty much kryptonite for the Lillard/CJ combo. And there may not be a better, more mobile defensive option in the NBA to shut down Nurkic's roll option in Portland's PnR than Anthony Davis.

Now those 3 players aren't the only reasons Portland lost that series. But it sure seemed like the vast majority of problems Portland had started with those 3. Again, I think it's something a lot of RealGMers and certainly national media overlook.