Tracking the Playoff Race

dunlop212 · Post #141 » by **dunlop212** » Mon Apr 1, 2019 1:24 pm

Hate to say it, but some karma involved if PDX loses to the Clippers without Nurk and CJ.

Village Idiot · Post #142 » by **Village Idiot** » Mon Apr 1, 2019 2:03 pm

dunlop212 wrote:Hate to say it, but some karma involved if PDX loses to the Clippers without Nurk and CJ.

Karma for what? What did the Blazers or CJ/Nurkic do wrong?

Wizenheimer · Post #143 » by **Wizenheimer** » Mon Apr 1, 2019 4:22 pm

Village Idiot wrote:
dunlop212 wrote:Hate to say it, but some karma involved if PDX loses to the Clippers without Nurk and CJ.
Karma for what? What did the Blazers or CJ/Nurkic do wrong?

my guess is he was referring to the 2015 playoffs

Post #144 » by **Moonbeam** » Tue Apr 2, 2019 3:39 am

A treading water kind of day with Portland and Utah both winning, but treading water days are good days for Portland's playoff seeding at this stage.

Post #145 » by **DaVoiceMaster** » Tue Apr 2, 2019 6:01 am

I think Utah finishes 4-1 and closes the season with a 51-31 record. That means Portland needs to go 3-2 and closes the season 52-30. Now, if they can somehow manage to go 4-1 themselves, they finish 53-30 and probably hang on to #3 or possibly climb to #7.

Wizenheimer · Post #146 » by **Wizenheimer** » Tue Apr 2, 2019 1:15 pm

DaVoiceMaster wrote:I think Utah finishes 4-1 and closes the season with a 51-31 record. That means Portland needs to go 3-2 and closes the season 52-30. Now, if they can somehow manage to go 4-1 themselves, they finish 53-30 and probably hang on to #3 or possibly climb to #7.

it's a climb from 3 to 7?

that sound like my weight-losing performance on a stair-master. After a month, I dropped from 225 to 233

Post #147 » by **The Sebastian Express** » Tue Apr 2, 2019 3:19 pm

If we somehow go 3-2 to finish the season I would consider that the biggest accomplishment of the year. Memphis will be tough unless they sit JV and/or Conley. I count both the Denver games as losses at this point unless we somehow, somehow get the most incredible luck at home. The last two games are so tough to judge.

pinman42 · Post #148 » by **pinman42** » Tue Apr 2, 2019 3:27 pm

The Sebastian Express wrote:If we somehow go 3-2 to finish the season I would consider that the biggest accomplishment of the year. Memphis will be tough unless they sit JV and/or Conley. I count both the Denver games as losses at this point unless we somehow, somehow get the most incredible luck at home. The last two games are so tough to judge.

JV sprained his ankle and is out for the season

Post #149 » by **The Sebastian Express** » Tue Apr 2, 2019 3:32 pm

pinman42 wrote:
The Sebastian Express wrote:If we somehow go 3-2 to finish the season I would consider that the biggest accomplishment of the year. Memphis will be tough unless they sit JV and/or Conley. I count both the Denver games as losses at this point unless we somehow, somehow get the most incredible luck at home. The last two games are so tough to judge.

JV sprained his ankle and is out for the season

Oh thank you, I didn't realize. That makes that game a true tossup then, perhaps.

Post #150 » by **DaVoiceMaster** » Tue Apr 2, 2019 5:31 pm

Wizenheimer wrote:
DaVoiceMaster wrote:I think Utah finishes 4-1 and closes the season with a 51-31 record. That means Portland needs to go 3-2 and closes the season 52-30. Now, if they can somehow manage to go 4-1 themselves, they finish 53-30 and probably hang on to #3 or possibly climb to #7.

it's a climb from 3 to 7?

that sound like my weight-losing performance on a stair-master. After a month, I dropped from 225 to 233

Hahaha oops. Climb to #2

monopoman · Post #151 » by **monopoman** » Tue Apr 2, 2019 9:47 pm

Utah while having an easier schedule are not getting all gimmes in their last 5 games. They play Denver+Clippers and both games should be tough. The other 3 are easier Suns, Lakers, Kings but even the Kings can be problematic that is a young team that is on the rise. If Utah goes 4-1 to close the season I wouldn't be surprised but I would not call it likely.

I also will point out Denver might be a bit gassed in the last bit of the season they play 6 games and 5 of them are against playoff teams. While they have a nice lead over the #3 slot that type of brutal schedule to close the season can be taxing on a team. It also sucks for them that their easiest game is game 82 so if that game is irrelevant then it's not like it's irrelevant against a good team.

GreenRiddler · Post #152 » by **GreenRiddler** » Tue Apr 2, 2019 11:28 pm

I am still not over this injury. What BS. So damn close to the playoffs. Playing so well, better than any Blazer playoff team I can remember. What a damn shame.

monopoman · Post #153 » by **monopoman** » Wed Apr 3, 2019 2:13 am

GreenRiddler wrote:I am still not over this injury. What BS. So damn close to the playoffs. Playing so well, better than any Blazer playoff team I can remember. What a damn shame.

Yeah, it's rough but now the Blazers are in the huge underdog role I think Damian thrives on that he plays his best ball when people count him out.

zzaj · Post #154 » by **zzaj** » Thu Apr 4, 2019 4:22 am

The more I think about it, the more it might make sense to play Lillard in one of the remaining Denver games and rest him the rest of the way. Actually, a few of the players could probably use a couple of games off so that they are fresh for the POs...

As long as the Blazers can secure home court, win or lose, I don't really see a good reason not to.

Post #155 » by **Moonbeam** » Thu Apr 4, 2019 5:20 am

Portland can finish no lower than 5th now. Anything from 1-5 is possible, with 4 seeming to be the most likely seed.

DusterBuster · Post #156 » by **DusterBuster** » Thu Apr 4, 2019 5:43 am

Moonbeam wrote:Portland can finish no lower than 5th now. Anything from 1-5 is possible, with 4 seeming to be the most likely seed.

If they do, I can only hope that the Clips can find a way to get to 5. I really don't want to see Utah in the 1st round, even though that's feeling more and more likely.

Who knows tho, maybe Dame goes supernova playing back in Utah.

zzaj · Post #157 » by **zzaj** » Thu Apr 4, 2019 6:56 am

DusterBuster wrote:
Moonbeam wrote:Portland can finish no lower than 5th now. Anything from 1-5 is possible, with 4 seeming to be the most likely seed.

If they do, I can only hope that the Clips can find a way to get to 5. I really don't want to see Utah in the 1st round, even though that's feeling more and more likely.

Who knows tho, maybe Dame goes supernova playing back in Utah.

Maybe it's just because I've not watched the Clippers very much this season, but I tend to agree that I'd rather see them than the Jazz. The Jazz are 12-1 in their last 13 games. Although, every one of those was a win against a bad team. Check it out:

Phoenix W
Minnesota W
Brooklyn W
Washington W
New York W
Atlanta L
Chicago W
Phoenix W
Los Angeles Lakers W
Washington W
Charlotte W
Phoenix W

They lost that Atlanta game by 3. They could have easily been 13-0 in that stretch. If ever there was a time to inflate your record and get hot, the schedule makers sure did Utah a favor.

Post #158 » by **Moonbeam** » Thu Apr 4, 2019 8:48 am

zzaj wrote:
DusterBuster wrote:
Moonbeam wrote:Portland can finish no lower than 5th now. Anything from 1-5 is possible, with 4 seeming to be the most likely seed.

If they do, I can only hope that the Clips can find a way to get to 5. I really don't want to see Utah in the 1st round, even though that's feeling more and more likely.

Who knows tho, maybe Dame goes supernova playing back in Utah.

Utah has the second best SRS in the West - I think if anything their record is deflated. They had a brutal early schedule and the later schedule is easier because they were saddled with tough games early in the season.

Maybe it's just because I've not watched the Clippers very much this season, but I tend to agree that I'd rather see them than the Jazz. The Jazz are 12-1 in their last 13 games. Although, every one of those was a win against a bad team. Check it out:

Phoenix W
Minnesota W
Brooklyn W
Washington W
New York W
Atlanta L
Chicago W
Phoenix W
Los Angeles Lakers W
Washington W
Charlotte W
Phoenix W

They lost that Atlanta game by 3. They could have easily been 13-0 in that stretch. If ever there was a time to inflate your record and get hot, the schedule makers sure did Utah a favor.

Wizenheimer · Post #159 » by **Wizenheimer** » Thu Apr 4, 2019 5:32 pm

zzaj wrote: If ever there was a time to inflate your record and get hot, the schedule makers sure did Utah a favor.

that's only part of the picture

for the first 4 months or so of the season, Utah consistently had the highest strength of schedule. Nobody was close. They also had an imbalance of road games vs home games. So, if you say they have inflated their wins the last 6 weeks of the season, you have to give them credit for deflated wins over the first 16 weeks.

the same is rather true for Portland. Their schedule has been fairly easy over the last 2 weeks.
*************************************************************

* the difference right now is that in the last 6 weeks, Portland has only lost 1 game to a sub .500 team; that game at Memphis a month ago

* Utah has lost 3 of those games; at Memphis and Atlanta and at home to New Orleans. Not coincidentally, the Blazers lead Utah by 2 games. Portland lucked out here a little in that Utah got beat by the Pels when AD and Holiday were playing. Shortly after, Portland beat the Pels with AD and Holiday missing.

you actually have to go back 2 months to find a 2nd game Portland lost to a sub .500 team, and that was the game at Dallas. That's taking care of business and I give most of the credit for that to Dame. Kanter, Curry, and Hood have provided needed production as well; and Harkless has stepped up

Utah isn't the only WC playoff team to drop those kind of games in the last 6 weeks.

* Denver has lost, at home, to both New Orleans and Washington.

* Houston has lost at Minny, at the Lakers, and at Memphis.

those botched games by Utah and Houston are why Portland has a shot at 3rd seed or could hold off Utah for 4th seed. A split against Denver is crucial though. Losing 2 or 3 of the last 4 could be a disaster. Being a 5th seed against the Jazz with them have HCA could be another quick exit

JasonStern · Post #160 » by **JasonStern** » Thu Apr 4, 2019 7:45 pm

Blazers 2 games behind Denver with 4 to play, but Denver has won both games earlier against Portland, and Portland's conference and division record are terrible when compared to Denver. so the Blazers would likely need to win out, with Denver also dropping a game to a hot Utah team, in order to repeat as Northwest Division champs. not probable, but certainly possible.