The rotation

[Village Idiot]

Anyone else bummed about Zach losing his playing time?

I wonder if yesterday¨s bench rotation is permanent or just Stotts first attempt to see what hes got. I'd much rather move Curry out of the bench rotation and Zach in. With Turner and Hood there is still adequate ball-handling and shot creation, Hood and Layman provide the outside shooting while Collins and Turner provide above average defense. What does Curry provide that the 2nd unit doesn't already have?

[Fitz303]

It does suck, especially with the fact that the last 3 games before the break (Once Hood came in and Layman and Collins slid up a position), the bench was playing much better. Having Hood at SF, Layman at PF, and Collins at Center were the best options for each of them IMO, and they were playing well. I'm just not a fan of Kanter in any way, so my thoughts on the rotation change is going to be extra biased, but overall, yeah I'm pretty bummed. Though I'd rather Collins be out of the rotation entirely than play out of position. Him playing PF next to Kanter would be a nightmare. He'd be fouling at rate likely never seen before.

[Drewskickinit]

I think Zachs value may take a hit because of low mins but the teams success will be much better. Kanter is obviously the best big we have on the bench now and some may argue should be our starting PF to play with Nurk so he will def be worth using at least for the rest of this season. I think for the next 10 games Stotts needs to try different combinations of players to see who flourishes with who because once the last 10 games of the season comes around were gonna need to start trimming down mins and giving them to a 9 player or less rotation. I think in this scenario players losing most of their mins are Curry Turner and Zach.

[DeBlazerRiddem]

Anyone else bummed about Zach losing his playing time?

I wonder if yesterday¨s bench rotation is permanent or just Stotts first attempt to see what hes got. I'd much rather move Curry out of the bench rotation and Zach in. With Turner and Hood there is still adequate ball-handling and shot creation, Hood and Layman provide the outside shooting while Collins and Turner provide above average defense. What does Curry provide that the 2nd unit doesn't already have?

I think our bench rotation will depend on opponents.

- Against small-ball and perimeter based centers we will probably see more Collins
- Against traditional centers who are good at defending we will see more of Leonard to stretch the floor
- Against traditional centers who are not great defenders we will see more of Kanter to punish them inside.

Obviously this is not set in stone, some games we may accept a poorer matchup for Kanter (say against a small-ball, perimeter based center) if we need the extra offense, or Meyers if he is shooting it well.

[zzaj]

It was a luxury that Zach got to play big kid minutes at such an early age. To my eye, he's clearly not ready for the NBA offensive game on a regular basis. And he's still not getting the benefit of the doubt on defensive calls.

That being said, Kanter is most likely gone after the season...all Zach has to do is work really hard on his body and the areas of his game that need improvement.

[zzaj]

Anyone else bummed about Zach losing his playing time?

I wonder if yesterday¨s bench rotation is permanent or just Stotts first attempt to see what hes got. I'd much rather move Curry out of the bench rotation and Zach in. With Turner and Hood there is still adequate ball-handling and shot creation, Hood and Layman provide the outside shooting while Collins and Turner provide above average defense. What does Curry provide that the 2nd unit doesn't already have?

Defense against smaller/quicker guards, for one. Turner or Hood don't have the foot speed and are going to get blown by against quicker PGs most of the time. As a ballhandler Curry has a pretty low TO rate as well, compared to Turner. The Blazers have had issues with TOs...

But mostly it just depends on what the identity of the bench is going to be. It seems like just having a bench unit that can not lose a lead is where this ship is headed. Stotts is never going to be a defense first, grind it out coach. Accordingly, having somebody like Kanter over Collins makes perfect sense. Kanter can score with the best of them, but can give up the same amount of points on PnRs on the other end...which is totally fine--protecting leads and occasionally extending them...

[Wizenheimer]

Nurkic is a better C than Collins. Kanter is a better C. Arguably, Meyers has been a better C

Aminu is a better PF. Right now, it looks like Layman is a better option at PF.

Zach dropping down the rotation priority seems warranted IMO. Developmental minutes are for lottery teams. For a playoff contending team, If a young player has earned minutes, fine. But he shouldn't just be granted those minutes because he was a high draft pick or some fans like his perceived potential

here is the net on/off for the Blazers per 100 possessions:

Damian Lillard +14.1
Jusuf Nurkic +12.8
Al-Farouq Aminu +11.9
CJ McCollum +7.6
Jake Layman +2.8
Seth Curry +2.6
Maurice Harkless 0.0
Rodney Hood -1.7
Evan Turner -3.9
Zach Collins -6.5
Meyers Leonard -9.6

Kanter?

you could imagine that Kanter will move into that somewhere in the middle. That's 12 players at a time when teams tend to tighten up their rotations. Remember that last game; is it just a coincidence that the 3 guys who saw their playing time either eliminated or drastically reduced are the three players at the bottom of that list?

personally, I'd be surprised if Aminu is back next season and I doubt Portland will be able to re-sign Kanter. Zach will get his opportunity next season

[GEE]

This is a strange year to me. I used to hate it when our Blazers had a first and second unit. I also hated seeing Terry Stotts always experiment with the linups. And I'm usually a fan of trimming down to a solid 8-man rotation by playoffs. That's all changed for me.

1. Tinkering with the linup: I actually encourage this, and we've already seen Terry start in the BKN game. Terry simply got Turner and Collins a couple extra days rest, and leaned heavy on Nurk and The Turk splitting the C duties, and dominated the paint. Smart. More experiments to come I hope, especially with teams like CLE, MEM, and CHA coming up.

2. 8-Man rotation vs. 1st & 2nd units: Traditional thinking says we need to trim it down by the playoffs, and that having 2 units wasn't real effective in the McMillan days. Recently I thought, the Warriors have destroyed all tradition, so let's think a little differently. We can't compete at the "hero-ball" level, so we must do it with depth; wear team's out! Again the BKN game, it wasn't pretty, but Terry had the Blazers playing way up-tempo, and it payed off in the 4th. With a roster that's 12 deep, 2 units, built depending on who we are facing, could make some sense in the playoffs.

3. Build and test creative rosters against the bottom feeder/tanking teams like BKN, as if they were potential playoff opponents. Like others pointed out: Big guards/no traditional C, Legit C/tons of wings, Legit C/small guards, etc. Future experiments I'd like to soon see: Two units with CJ as the 6th man and Hood at starting SG... Better defensively against teams with 6'8 SGs. Also, Two units with Collins at PF next to Nurk, and Leonard next to Kanter. Quadruple Towers?

Just saying that we will again get destroyed in the playoffs rolling out our current starting 5 against most current WC playoff teams, if we stick with traditional thinking. We should try something new, stop reacting, and go on the offensive. Make the other team react to us, pass the ball, and run! Make up the units depending on who we face in the playoff series. Possibilities are endless:

Red: Dame/Hood/Mo/Aminu/Nurk Black:Turner/CJ/Layman/Collins/Kanter
Red: Dame/CJ/Aminu/Collins/Nurk Black:Turner/Curry/Layman/Leonard/Kanter
Red: Dame/Layman/MO/Aminu/Nurk Black: Turner/CJ/Hood/Collins/Leonard

[Fitz303]

Nurkic is a better C than Collins. Kanter is a better C. Arguably, Meyers has been a better C

Aminu is a better PF. Right now, it looks like Layman is a better option at PF.

Zach dropping down the rotation priority seems warranted IMO. Developmental minutes are for lottery teams. For a playoff contending team, If a young player has earned minutes, fine. But he shouldn't just be granted those minutes because he was a high draft pick or some fans like his perceived potential

here is the net on/off for the Blazers per 100 possessions:

Damian Lillard +14.1
Jusuf Nurkic +12.8
Al-Farouq Aminu +11.9
CJ McCollum +7.6
Jake Layman +2.8
Seth Curry +2.6
Maurice Harkless 0.0
Rodney Hood -1.7
Evan Turner -3.9
Zach Collins -6.5
Meyers Leonard -9.6

Kanter?

you could imagine that Kanter will move into that somewhere in the middle. That's 12 players at a time when teams tend to tighten up their rotations. Remember that last game; is it just a coincidence that the 3 guys who saw their playing time either eliminated or drastically reduced are the three players at the bottom of that list?

personally, I'd be surprised if Aminu is back next season and I doubt Portland will be able to re-sign Kanter. Zach will get his opportunity next season

Kanter will very likely be in the bottom half of that. Kanter's career net on/off:

11-12: -12.4
12-13: +7.0
13-14: -9.2
14-15: -5.4/-1.2 changed teams mid season
15-16: -6.4
16-17: -0.3
17-18: -2.3
18-19: -2.8/-13.0 (1 game w/ Blazers)

[Wizenheimer]

Spoiler:

Nurkic is a better C than Collins. Kanter is a better C. Arguably, Meyers has been a better C

Aminu is a better PF. Right now, it looks like Layman is a better option at PF.

Zach dropping down the rotation priority seems warranted IMO. Developmental minutes are for lottery teams. For a playoff contending team, If a young player has earned minutes, fine. But he shouldn't just be granted those minutes because he was a high draft pick or some fans like his perceived potential

here is the net on/off for the Blazers per 100 possessions:

Damian Lillard +14.1
Jusuf Nurkic +12.8
Al-Farouq Aminu +11.9
CJ McCollum +7.6
Jake Layman +2.8
Seth Curry +2.6
Maurice Harkless 0.0
Rodney Hood -1.7
Evan Turner -3.9
Zach Collins -6.5
Meyers Leonard -9.6

Kanter?

you could imagine that Kanter will move into that somewhere in the middle. That's 12 players at a time when teams tend to tighten up their rotations. Remember that last game; is it just a coincidence that the 3 guys who saw their playing time either eliminated or drastically reduced are the three players at the bottom of that list?

personally, I'd be surprised if Aminu is back next season and I doubt Portland will be able to re-sign Kanter. Zach will get his opportunity next season

Kanter will very likely be in the bottom half of that. Kanter's career net on/off:

11-12: -12.4
12-13: +7.0
13-14: -9.2
14-15: -5.4/-1.2 changed teams mid season
15-16: -6.4
16-17: -0.3
17-18: -2.3
18-19: -2.8/-13.0 (1 game w/ Blazers)

quite possibly true

on the other hand, Blazers are in a hunt for wins and winshare/48 also has some bearing. Kanter:

2011-12 .095
2012-13 .101
2013-14 .050
2014-15 .145
2015-16 .226
2016-17 .183
2017-18 .198
2018-19 .151

and Collins:

2017-18 .030
2018-19 .111

I mean, Kanter is coming from a team that has only won 11 games and he already has 3.4 winshares. Zach's team has 35 wins and he only has 2.4 winshares. Kanter has only played 9% more minutes but has 42% more winshares. Kanter's good-offense/bad-defense may give portland a better chance to win than Zach's weak-offense/good-defense (it certainly did against Brooklyn). Portland's bench has failed in games often and when that happens, it always seems to be because they can't keep up the scoring. Zach can't solve that but Kanter may. I mean, in that Nets game, Kanter scored 18 points on 9 shots. The rest of the Blazer bench scored 10 points on 23 shots. Without Kanter, Portland loses that game; Zach wasn't going to turn that around with defense (sorry if pointing at winshares seems like moving the goal posts)

Kanter is 26 and Zach is 21. Maybe, when Zach is 26 he'll be better all-around than Kanter is now. But that isn't the case this season. I know you like Zach a lot, but in my view, he's just not ready for a significant role on a playoff contending team

[Fitz303]

Spoiler:

Nurkic is a better C than Collins. Kanter is a better C. Arguably, Meyers has been a better C

Aminu is a better PF. Right now, it looks like Layman is a better option at PF.

Zach dropping down the rotation priority seems warranted IMO. Developmental minutes are for lottery teams. For a playoff contending team, If a young player has earned minutes, fine. But he shouldn't just be granted those minutes because he was a high draft pick or some fans like his perceived potential

here is the net on/off for the Blazers per 100 possessions:

Damian Lillard +14.1
Jusuf Nurkic +12.8
Al-Farouq Aminu +11.9
CJ McCollum +7.6
Jake Layman +2.8
Seth Curry +2.6
Maurice Harkless 0.0
Rodney Hood -1.7
Evan Turner -3.9
Zach Collins -6.5
Meyers Leonard -9.6

Kanter?

you could imagine that Kanter will move into that somewhere in the middle. That's 12 players at a time when teams tend to tighten up their rotations. Remember that last game; is it just a coincidence that the 3 guys who saw their playing time either eliminated or drastically reduced are the three players at the bottom of that list?

personally, I'd be surprised if Aminu is back next season and I doubt Portland will be able to re-sign Kanter. Zach will get his opportunity next season

Kanter will very likely be in the bottom half of that. Kanter's career net on/off:

11-12: -12.4
12-13: +7.0
13-14: -9.2
14-15: -5.4/-1.2 changed teams mid season
15-16: -6.4
16-17: -0.3
17-18: -2.3
18-19: -2.8/-13.0 (1 game w/ Blazers)

quite possibly true

on the other hand, Blazers are in a hunt for wins and winshare/48 also has some bearing. Kanter:

2011-12 .095
2012-13 .101
2013-14 .050
2014-15 .145
2015-16 .226
2016-17 .183
2017-18 .198
2018-19 .151

and Collins:

2017-18 .030
2018-19 .111

I mean, Kanter is coming from a team that has only won 11 games and he already has 3.4 winshares. Zach's team has 35 wins and he only has 2.4 winshares. Kanter has only played 9% more minutes but has 42% more winshares. Kanter's good-offense/bad-defense may give portland a better chance to win than Zach's weak-offense/good-defense (it certainly did against Brooklyn). Portland's bench has failed in games often and when that happens, it always seems to be because they can't keep up the scoring. Zach can't solve that but Kanter may. I mean, in that Nets game, Kanter scored 18 points on 9 shots. The rest of the Blazer bench scored 10 points on 23 shots. Without Kanter, Portland loses that game; Zach wasn't going to turn that around with defense (sorry if pointing at winshares seems like moving the goal posts)

Kanter is 26 and Zach is 21. Maybe, when Zach is 26 he'll be better all-around than Kanter is now. But that isn't the case this season. I know you like Zach a lot, but in my view, he's just not ready for a significant role on a playoff contending team

For me, this has little to do with Zach and more my dislike for Kanter's game. I don't think Portland loses that game in Brooklyn without Kanter. I don't see him as a positive player when he's on the court. Once again today, another game where the Blazers were outscored when he was on the court. Every game I watch with him, it's a revolving door on defense. I don't care if you score 2, when you give up 2 or 3 on the other end. I liked the idea of giving more shots to Layman and Hood, which was happening for the 3 games after the Hood acquisition and before Kanter. Since then, Hood's shot like garbage in these 2 games. Just not a fan. I hope the Blazers continue to play well, but I think it'll be in spite of Kanter, not because of him.

[Wizenheimer]

For me, this has little to do with Zach and more my dislike for Kanter's game. I don't think Portland loses that game in Brooklyn without Kanter. I don't see him as a positive player when he's on the court. Once again today, another game where the Blazers were outscored when he was on the court. Every game I watch with him, it's a revolving door on defense. I don't care if you score 2, when you give up 2 or 3 on the other end. I liked the idea of giving more shots to Layman and Hood, which was happening for the 3 games after the Hood acquisition and before Kanter. Since then, Hood's shot like garbage in these 2 games. Just not a fan. I hope the Blazers continue to play well, but I think it'll be in spite of Kanter, not because of him.

ok...understood

Like I said, I just don't think the Blazers will be able to resign Kanter unless he signs for the tax-MLE. That would start at 5.7M

by the way, in another thread I mentioned a way that Portland could get their cap low enough to use the full-MLE on Kanter. I forgot that if Portland did that they'd be hard-capped at the apron for the rest of the season and would almost certainly lose Layman

[GEE]

Seems like a pretty fair assessment by Wiz in reagard to Collins' minutes. I think they're getting cut and his role may be limited to certain opponents, but he's still a great talent. Zach is just not quite ready yet, but he still might play an important role, in certain scenarios this post-season, depending on the opponent.

Kanter's defense has been horrible as advertised, but he is a huge lift to this team. I've noticed he doesn't even put his hands up on D most of the time. I wonder if he's just bad, or not trying very hard. Maybe it's fixable, and he can become at least, not terrible. Regardless, I think Terry will need to figure out how to get him some help on D. Jake at the 4, is not the answer. AIR JAKE is a pure 3: Can shoot the 3, but really likes to slash and dunk on people. Also he's what, 6'8/215lb maybe?

As for Hood... Gonna love him people. He's a high IQ guy that plays both ends well. Give him some time to fit in. As I've said, I'd experiment starting him at the 2 against a sub-par opponent soon, even on this road trip to see how a Dame/Hood, Turner/CJ, Red/Black rotation could look.

Keep up the good work Terry, and you too Dame!

[Fitz303]

For me, this has little to do with Zach and more my dislike for Kanter's game. I don't think Portland loses that game in Brooklyn without Kanter. I don't see him as a positive player when he's on the court. Once again today, another game where the Blazers were outscored when he was on the court. Every game I watch with him, it's a revolving door on defense. I don't care if you score 2, when you give up 2 or 3 on the other end. I liked the idea of giving more shots to Layman and Hood, which was happening for the 3 games after the Hood acquisition and before Kanter. Since then, Hood's shot like garbage in these 2 games. Just not a fan. I hope the Blazers continue to play well, but I think it'll be in spite of Kanter, not because of him.

ok...understood

Like I said, I just don't think the Blazers will be able to resign Kanter unless he signs for the tax-MLE. That would start at 5.7M

by the way, in another thread I mentioned a way that Portland could get their cap low enough to use the full-MLE on Kanter. I forgot that if Portland did that they'd be hard-capped at the apron for the rest of the season and would almost certainly lose Layman

I actually think that's likely the money he'll be looking at in the open market (tax MLE). I don't see him getting much more, if any, than 6 million per. My guess is Portland will get to make a choice between Hood and Kanter. If I had to choose between a defenseless wing and a defenseless big, I'm choosing the wing. This offseason is going to be a tricky one. Should be interesting.

[DaVoiceMaster]

I could see Collins playing instead of Curry who hasn't done much lately.

[GEE]

I could see Collins playing instead of Curry who hasn't done much lately.

I think you're right. Zachs minutes will obviously drop, but hopefully seeing Curry is just Terry tinkering a little. Hopefully Curry will become just insurance, in case of injury to Dame or CJ. Also, I normally hate when Stotts toys with the lineup, but am actually a fan this year. Of course we need to win as many games as possible, but against the crappy teams, over the next 15 games, sure experiment a little Terry. I think we should try playing Zach at some 4, against teams with legit bigs that score alot in the paint. See how that works.

Last, People love to smash Turner on here, but he's a solid player that has picked out an important need for this team, backup Point, and become very good at distributing and running that O. He's also 6'7, built like a rock, and can play decent D. Watching CJ run the point for the 2nd unit last couple games makes me hope he's not hurt bad, and just getting some extra rest, while Terry tries CJ at backup. Hopefully that's the case... Turner's really important to this team.

[HoopsFanAZ]

I'm waiting on both Hood and Kanter ... at least 10 games but more like the end of the regular season ... or the playoffs.

With Hood, I can see some paint and baseline O similar to Turner. That and his PnR with 3's look viable. A two-year, taxpayer MLE gets him a raise and to his next Bird Rights with Portland. It appears he's working on D. Again, it's early and Turner being out is good timing to see Hood alongside Layman.

With Kanter, the Knicks fans on realgm are (almost uniformly) happy to see him gone. I get there are a few factors on and off court with an exiting player who opted in on a final year they don't see as earned. BUT, it's instructive how they reacted. His D isn't good, so far. A shocker. His bully ball on O has its merits with nice touch. Definitely an off the bench scoring, rebounding plug-and-play. Not much of a passer. Good for the Blazers? Pending. A nice gap filler until Collins takes over all the backup minutes at 4 and 5 and then starts at the 4.

On the small forward front, Harkless has perked up, recently. Will it last this time? I'm not betting on it. Layman's perpetual motion and improved D are making Mo look like MHEC unless Hood doesn't sign in the summer.
[Summer 2019: MLEC + MHEC + ? = ?]

[DeBlazerRiddem]

[Summer 2019: MLEC + MHEC + ? = ?]

Expiring contracts by themselves really only get you worse contracts. Maybe by adding incentive we can get a decent but still overpaid player. I'm guessing the Blazers would just prefer the salary relief.

[Drewskickinit]

[Summer 2019: MLEC + MHEC + ? = ?]

Expiring contracts by themselves really only get you worse contracts. Maybe by adding incentive we can get a decent but still overpaid player. I'm guessing the Blazers would just prefer the salary relief.

Isn't there a way to just buy out Turner and Meyers which in turn would save us 20-25 million which we could then use to sign Kanter Layman and Hood this off season.?

[DeBlazerRiddem]

[Summer 2019: MLEC + MHEC + ? = ?]

Expiring contracts by themselves really only get you worse contracts. Maybe by adding incentive we can get a decent but still overpaid player. I'm guessing the Blazers would just prefer the salary relief.

Isn't there a way to just buy out Turner and Meyers which in turn would save us 20-25 million which we could then use to sign Kanter Layman and Hood this off season.?

Yeah the stretch provision could reduce our salary by just under ~20 million for those 2, but we would be eating a dead-cap hit of ~10 million for the next 3 years.