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2019 Offseason: Part 2

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HoopsFanAZ
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Re: 2019 Offseason: Part 2 

Post#161 » by HoopsFanAZ » Mon Jul 22, 2019 4:14 pm

Around draft time, I was reminded by a knowledgeable friend of San Antonio building enduring success. Yes, it was around their core players, but it was also in waves.

Portland’s Best — Lillard / McCollum / Nurkic. In their prime with Nurkic just entering his.
Next Wave — Simons / Little / Collins. 2 really young players set to get serious rotation responsibilities and minutes, and a draft day steal who will be developed over the next 2 years before he’s needed. Some uncertainty but high ceilings.

I see little to no chance of any of the young guys getting traded any time soon. It would HAVE to involve a SERIOUS player coming in where the reaction would be “Too bad to lose the young guy, but DANG!”
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Re: 2019 Offseason: Part 2 

Post#162 » by mighty_duck » Mon Jul 22, 2019 5:35 pm

We have one good bench player in Hood (or Baze if Hood starts). The rest are better suited to being 3rd stringers than our second team.
A lineup featuring Simons, Tolliver and/or Hezonja is going to hemorrhage points on both sides of the court, even if you add Dame and CJ's staggered minutes to them. And you don't really want to drive Dame and CJ in to the ground.

If everything goes right (Nurk comes back to full strength, no other injuries, a good midseason pickup off waivers), it may be enough for the playoffs. But it will be a ROUGH regular season, with no guarantee of a playoff spot.
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Re: 2019 Offseason: Part 2 

Post#163 » by d-train » Mon Jul 22, 2019 7:47 pm

The bench does look thin of proven players until Nurkic gets back. This is an opportunity for an unproven player to step up and raise his stock.
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Re: 2019 Offseason: Part 2 

Post#164 » by JasonStern » Mon Jul 22, 2019 7:56 pm

Wizenheimer wrote:
BigLurch92 wrote:What would you guys say is our depth chart as of today?


Dame/Simons/CJ
CJ/Bazemore/Simons
Hood/Bazemore/Hezonja
Zach/Hezonja/Tolliver
Whiteside/Zach/Skal


fixed:

Dame
CJ/Bazemore/Simons/Trent
Hood/Hezonja/Little/Hoard**
Zach/Tolliver/Skal
Nurkić*/Whiteside

* = Injured
** = Two-way


mighty_duck wrote:If everything goes right (Nurk comes back to full strength, no other injuries, a good midseason pickup off waivers), it may be enough for the playoffs. But it will be a ROUGH regular season, with no guarantee of a playoff spot.


history has shown that a healthy Dame is enough to make the playoffs.
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Re: 2019 Offseason: Part 2 

Post#165 » by mighty_duck » Mon Jul 22, 2019 8:54 pm

JasonStern wrote:Dame
CJ/Bazemore/Simons/Trent
Hood/Hezonja/Little/Hoard**
Zach/Tolliver/Skal
Nurkić*/Whiteside

* = Injured
** = Two-way

Yup, can't think of any downside to playing Dame 48 minutes a night. :P

JasonStern wrote:history has shown that a healthy Dame is enough to make the playoffs.

That history will also show a semi-decent bench behind him. Our current bench makes Evan Turner look like Scotty Pippen...
And history also shows seasons with 41 and 44 wins, which would not be enough the last couple of years in the West.

I love Dame and support our team, but we need to brace ourselves for a poo-poo storm.
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Re: 2019 Offseason: Part 2 

Post#166 » by dunlop212 » Mon Jul 22, 2019 9:16 pm

> They like Little a lot

Great news if true. Do you have a link or inside knowledge?
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Re: 2019 Offseason: Part 2 

Post#167 » by Goldbum » Mon Jul 22, 2019 11:04 pm

d-train wrote:The bench does look thin of proven players until Nurkic gets back. This is an opportunity for an unproven player to step up and raise his stock.


I agree 100%
I hate to be THAT guy, but our SG situation looked like garbage before CJ stepped up. Sometimes we just need to accept that the organization knows more about its players than we do. For all we know they could view Skal Mario, ZCo, or Simons as an MIP candidate... My feeling is that our 3-4-5 that was disastrous without Nurkic is primed for a big jump, and Mario is probably 80% the player ET was at 10% the cost. ZCo/Hood should be more productive than Aminu/Harkless and Simons may not be better than Curry to start the season but likely will be by the end. Bazemore is a legit 3D 6th man type and Skal much like Simons, flashed big the last game of the year (I get that it was essentially a glorified pre-season game).
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Re: 2019 Offseason: Part 2 

Post#168 » by BigLurch92 » Tue Jul 23, 2019 6:20 pm

depth looks extremely weak at 4/5. Skal and Tolliver? That doesn't seem good to me. A shame we couldn't bring back Ed Davis.

Why could Portland not bring anyone else in considering they let so many walk. Is our cap situation really that bad?

Overall it feels like we actually got worse this offseason. I really hope I'm wrong.
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Re: 2019 Offseason: Part 2 

Post#169 » by Norm2953 » Tue Jul 23, 2019 6:58 pm

The western conference is going to be major struggle for Portland for its clear the LAL, LAC,
Houston, Utah, Denver and the GSW are going to be ahead of the rest of the pack. Likely there
will be four teams (Portland, SAC, SA and possibly Dallas if KP comes back) competing for
two playoff spots with the Thunder, Wolves, Pelicans not far behind.

If I were Portland, I'd be less concerned about 2019-20 and more concerned about getting ready
for the summer of 2020 when Whiteside, Bazemore and Hood will likely be off their books. Nurkic
should be fully recovered from his injury and we can really evaluate the roster given the level
of opposition. Use this season to see if Whiteside and Bazemore have any future with this team
for athletically, Whiteside is superior to Nurkic for example.
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Re: 2019 Offseason: Part 2 

Post#170 » by mighty_duck » Tue Jul 23, 2019 8:35 pm

BigLurch92 wrote:depth looks extremely weak at 4/5. Skal and Tolliver? That doesn't seem good to me. A shame we couldn't bring back Ed Davis.

Why could Portland not bring anyone else in considering they let so many walk. Is our cap situation really that bad?

Overall it feels like we actually got worse this offseason. I really hope I'm wrong.

Yes, our cap situation was bad. We basically only had the 4.8M tax-payer's exception to work with, which we gave to Hood, and then only minimum contracts.

We didn't have Bird rights on Curry and Kanter, so they walked away for nothing. We had Bird rights for Aminu, but chose to let him walk for nothing.
Ed Davis signed a 2 year $10M deal with the Jazz.

I like the deals we made (Bazemore for Turner, and Whiteside for Harkless/Leonard) but they are more sideways deals than clear upgrade in talent.

I agree, we are significantly weaker to start the season. Our bench is especially worrisome.
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Re: 2019 Offseason: Part 2 

Post#171 » by mighty_duck » Tue Jul 23, 2019 8:56 pm

Norm2953 wrote:The western conference is going to be major struggle for Portland for its clear the LAL, LAC,
Houston, Utah, Denver and the GSW are going to be ahead of the rest of the pack. Likely there
will be four teams (Portland, SAC, SA and possibly Dallas if KP comes back) competing for
two playoff spots with the Thunder, Wolves, Pelicans not far behind.

Good analysis. I don't see us cracking the top 6, or even beating SA for the 7th spot.
Our saving grace may be that NO, MEM, and OKC have gone in to rebuild mode, and DAL isn't ready yet.

If all goes well, we have the inside track on the 8th seed, edging out SAC and MIN.
Norm2953 wrote:If I were Portland, I'd be less concerned about 2019-20 and more concerned about getting ready
for the summer of 2020 when Whiteside, Bazemore and Hood will likely be off their books. Nurkic
should be fully recovered from his injury and we can really evaluate the roster given the level
of opposition. Use this season to see if Whiteside and Bazemore have any future with this team
for athletically, Whiteside is superior to Nurkic for example.

Seems like a shame to waste a year of Dame's prime, especially when the West may be momentarily up for grabs. GS is no longer the Juggernaut of recent years, and the LA teams may need a while to mesh.

Next year, we'll have 20-22M in cap space, but only Dame, CJ, Nurk and Collins (plus various jetsam). If we're smart, that may be enough to fill out the roster with midlevel talent. Olshey has a good track record for finding bargain talent.
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Re: 2019 Offseason: Part 2 

Post#172 » by d-train » Wed Jul 24, 2019 12:35 am

Norm2953 wrote:If I were Portland, I'd be less concerned about 2019-20 and more concerned about getting ready
for the summer of 2020 when Whiteside, Bazemore and Hood will likely be off their books. Nurkic
should be fully recovered from his injury and we can really evaluate the roster given the level
of opposition. Use this season to see if Whiteside and Bazemore have any future with this team
for athletically, Whiteside is superior to Nurkic for example.

20-21 isn't going to be successful unless we are working on 20-21 in 19-20. Specifically, we need to accumulate assets now that can be retained through 20-21 and into 21-22, while getting team salary below the tax in 20-21.
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Re: 2019 Offseason: Part 2 

Post#173 » by plyrically » Wed Jul 24, 2019 1:48 am

Random thought here fellas - I think I'm not seeing enough Dame is Russell Westbrook's father memes.. I remember seeing a lot more Jrue Holiday is Lillard's dad memes last year.
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Re: 2019 Offseason: Part 2 

Post#174 » by d-train » Wed Jul 24, 2019 2:16 am

plyrically wrote:Random thought here fellas - I think I'm not seeing enough Dame is Russell Westbrook's father memes.. I remember seeing a lot more Jrue Holiday is Lillard's dad memes last year.

Wouldn't it be better to forget Lillard's performance in the Pelican series than to invite comparisons to Westbrook's performance?
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Re: 2019 Offseason: Part 2 

Post#175 » by Dame Lizard » Wed Jul 24, 2019 8:32 am

d-train wrote:
Norm2953 wrote:If I were Portland, I'd be less concerned about 2019-20 and more concerned about getting ready
for the summer of 2020 when Whiteside, Bazemore and Hood will likely be off their books. Nurkic
should be fully recovered from his injury and we can really evaluate the roster given the level
of opposition. Use this season to see if Whiteside and Bazemore have any future with this team
for athletically, Whiteside is superior to Nurkic for example.

20-21 isn't going to be successful unless we are working on 20-21 in 19-20. Specifically, we need to accumulate assets now that can be retained through 20-21 and into 21-22, while getting team salary below the tax in 20-21.
You could always make arguments that the grass is always greener.

Imo this year or next are our best chances of competing. This year being contingent on Nurk being healthy, and either rolling out a beast Nurkic/Whiteside Centre rotation, or trading Whiteside at the trade deadline for a PF/SF.

When Dame's $50M per year kicks in, that'll be a tough pill to swallow.
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Re: 2019 Offseason: Part 2 

Post#176 » by Sinobas » Wed Jul 24, 2019 12:37 pm

Have you guy seen this? "fivethirtyeight" whatever the hell that is, didn't include Portland in their playoff projections. How on earth are the Pelicans going to make it without Anthony Davis, when they didn't even get in there WITH him last year?
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Re: 2019 Offseason: Part 2 

Post#177 » by zzaj » Wed Jul 24, 2019 6:02 pm

Goldbum wrote:
d-train wrote:The bench does look thin of proven players until Nurkic gets back. This is an opportunity for an unproven player to step up and raise his stock.


I agree 100%
I hate to be THAT guy, but our SG situation looked like garbage before CJ stepped up. Sometimes we just need to accept that the organization knows more about its players than we do. For all we know they could view Skal Mario, ZCo, or Simons as an MIP candidate... My feeling is that our 3-4-5 that was disastrous without Nurkic is primed for a big jump, and Mario is probably 80% the player ET was at 10% the cost. ZCo/Hood should be more productive than Aminu/Harkless and Simons may not be better than Curry to start the season but likely will be by the end. Bazemore is a legit 3D 6th man type and Skal much like Simons, flashed big the last game of the year (I get that it was essentially a glorified pre-season game).


That's not taking into any kind of context where the franchise is at or what the state of the PO picture is looking like. CJ was given an opportunity to step up because the Blazers lost 3 starters in that offseason--they didn't really have much choice but start him. Nobody expected the team to make the POs after the LA/Wes/Batum 1+2+3 punch to the franchise, and they were considered to be on the border of rebuilding. Which is much different than now.

This was also of course when Lillard was 24-25 years old and still establishing his game. He's in his prime now at 29 years old in a tough WC. It's important to remember he's played 35+ minutes a game in each of his 7 seasons. That takes a toll. Injuries have caught up with Lillard in the past 2 seasons. If the Blazers don't want to limp into the POs like they have the past couple of years it might be smart to cut back the minutes of the one person on the team that actually makes the team go. The smart way to do that and stay competitive is to have a known commodity as a backup. Simons is not that.

Right now Olshey is banking on big production jumps from each of Simons, Collins, and Hezonja. The Blazers should consider themselves lucky if even one of those has a breakout season.
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Re: 2019 Offseason: Part 2 

Post#178 » by Norm2953 » Wed Jul 24, 2019 6:15 pm

Dame Lizard wrote:
d-train wrote:
Norm2953 wrote:If I were Portland, I'd be less concerned about 2019-20 and more concerned about getting ready
for the summer of 2020 when Whiteside, Bazemore and Hood will likely be off their books. Nurkic
should be fully recovered from his injury and we can really evaluate the roster given the level
of opposition. Use this season to see if Whiteside and Bazemore have any future with this team
for athletically, Whiteside is superior to Nurkic for example.

20-21 isn't going to be successful unless we are working on 20-21 in 19-20. Specifically, we need to accumulate assets now that can be retained through 20-21 and into 21-22, while getting team salary below the tax in 20-21.
You could always make arguments that the grass is always greener.

Imo this year or next are our best chances of competing. This year being contingent on Nurk being healthy, and either rolling out a beast Nurkic/Whiteside Centre rotation, or trading Whiteside at the trade deadline for a PF/SF.

When Dame's $50M per year kicks in, that'll be a tough pill to swallow.


My point about 2020-21 is about the realization with Dame's max extension, an extension for CJ is not going to happen
for the team simply cannot commit $80+ million of their cap to Dame/CJ. If that's the case, let's see how the team
performs in a rugged western conference but keep an eye towards $50 Million in contracts coming off their books and
using CJ's highly desireable expiring contract to get a better fit alongside of Dame/Nurk. Whiteside athletically is superior
to Nurk so let's see how he plays in Portland.
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Re: 2019 Offseason: Part 2 

Post#179 » by HoopsFanAZ » Wed Jul 24, 2019 7:26 pm

zzaj wrote:
Goldbum wrote:
d-train wrote:The bench does look thin of proven players until Nurkic gets back. This is an opportunity for an unproven player to step up and raise his stock.


I agree 100%
I hate to be THAT guy, but our SG situation looked like garbage before CJ stepped up. Sometimes we just need to accept that the organization knows more about its players than we do. For all we know they could view Skal Mario, ZCo, or Simons as an MIP candidate... My feeling is that our 3-4-5 that was disastrous without Nurkic is primed for a big jump, and Mario is probably 80% the player ET was at 10% the cost. ZCo/Hood should be more productive than Aminu/Harkless and Simons may not be better than Curry to start the season but likely will be by the end. Bazemore is a legit 3D 6th man type and Skal much like Simons, flashed big the last game of the year (I get that it was essentially a glorified pre-season game).


That's not taking into any kind of context where the franchise is at or what the state of the PO picture is looking like. CJ was given an opportunity to step up because the Blazers lost 3 starters in that offseason--they didn't really have much choice but start him. Nobody expected the team to make the POs after the LA/Wes/Batum 1+2+3 punch to the franchise, and they were considered to be on the border of rebuilding. Which is much different than now.

This was also of course when Lillard was 24-25 years old and still establishing his game. He's in his prime now at 29 years old in a tough WC. It's important to remember he's played 35+ minutes a game in each of his 7 seasons. That takes a toll. Injuries have caught up with Lillard in the past 2 seasons. If the Blazers don't want to limp into the POs like they have the past couple of years it might be smart to cut back the minutes of the one person on the team that actually makes the team go. The smart way to do that and stay competitive is to have a known commodity as a backup. Simons is not that.

Right now Olshey is banking on big production jumps from each of Simons, Collins, and Hezonja. The Blazers should consider themselves lucky if even one of those has a breakout season.


Lillard and McCollum at 34 minutes per and taking off a smallish number of games and/or those 4th quarters in blowouts ... important. And opportunity meets opportunistic of Hood, Collins, and Simons. Nurkic’s health is HUGE for years of contention. And while the unknowns are less than comforting, right now, this Blazers team has the elements to become my all time favorite.

LMA third wheel wanted to go home / Matthews and the Achilles / the Batum Inconsistency and Disappearances.
Disappointing.

Ed Davis edged out / Chief at his ceiling with attic price/length for a back-up / Mo and Meyers upgraded 1 year before sent packing. Even the Turtle was let out.
Appreciated but improved upon.
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Re: 2019 Offseason: Part 2 

Post#180 » by pinman42 » Wed Jul 24, 2019 7:59 pm

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