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3-Point Shooting Void - Who Fills It?

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3-Point Shooting Void - Who Fills It? 

Post#1 » by BNM » Fri Jul 26, 2019 10:17 pm

Out:

Curry: 113/251 = .450
Aminu: 96/280 = .343
Layman: 59/181 = .326
Leonard: 50/111 = .450
Harkless: 33/120 = .275
Turner: 11/52 = .212
Total: 362/995 = .364

In:

Bazermore: 96/300 = .320
Tolliver: 81/215 = .377
Hezonja: 42/152 = .276
Gasol: 6/13 = .462
Total: 225/680 = .331

Delta: -137/-315 = -.033

The Blazers lost a lot of 3-point shooting this off season, both in quantity and accuracy. In terms of 3-point shooting, the biggest losses were Seth Curry and Meyers Leonard, who both shot .450 3FG% for the season (both also shot > .400 3FG% in the playoffs). The rest of the guys didn't shoot at a high percentage, but did contribute quite a bit in terms of volume.

None of the incoming guys were as accurate as Seth and Meyers last year. Tolliver shot it at .377 last season, down from a career high of .436 the season before. Can he have a bounce back season at 34, and is it really a bounce back season when his .377 last year is just a tiny tick above his career average of .376 3FG%. Bazermore also had a down year last season, dropping from .394 to .320. His career average of .352 is nothing to get excited about, but is better than Chief (.337) and Moe .323). Hezonja is a bad shooter, really bad, but still better than Evan Turner.

It's clear POR is banking on a LOT of internal growth from Zach Collins and Anfernee Simons. Obviously, Collins does some other things better than Meyers, and showed a small improvement in his 3-point shooting from year 1 (35/113 = .310) to year 2 (40/121 = .331) but that's not exactly impressive, in either volume or accuracy. Simons barely saw the court last season (10/29 = .345). Can the 20-year old replace Curry's 3-point shooting, in both volume and accuracy. Probably the former, doubtful on the latter.

So, where else will POR turn to make up all that lost 3-point shooting. More shots for Dame and C.J.? Frankly, I'd rather see their minutes and scoring load decrease, rather than increase. I'd prefer both be healthy and rested for the post season. Will Trent Jr. see minutes if he proves he can knock down 3-pointers on a consistent basis against NBA level defenders?

A dark horse is Pau Gasol. He looked totally done last season, but struggled with foot and ankle injuries for almost the entire season. If he's healthy, he may see 8 - 12 MPG until Nurk gets back. He's not really known for his 3-point shooting, but his prior two years in San Antonio, he put up somewhat Meyers like numbers from deep (56/104 = .538, 43/120 = .358), but that was also while averaging 24 MPG and I just don't see the 39-year old Gasol getting that kind of minutes.

Anyone/anything else I'm overlooking or is POR going to be more 3FG challenged than in previous seasons? Bazemore has never matched Curry's 113 made 3FG in a season, not even when he was a full time starter, and has never topped .400 3FG%. Tolliver surpassed that volume once, when he was 32 in DET, and that was also his career best .436 3FG. He made 159 that year, which is REALLY good for a bench player, but he also averaged over 22 MPG that season and I don't see him getting that many minutes this year in Portland.
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Re: 3-Point Shooting Void - Who Fills It? 

Post#2 » by d-train » Fri Jul 26, 2019 10:39 pm

The 995 attempts will still be there as long as teams have to defend Lillard, CJ, and Whiteside/Nurkic. I'm guessing the new shooters will make more shots than the outgoing player did. Especially, if Whiteside does a better job rebounding than Kanter and Aminu did.
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Re: 3-Point Shooting Void - Who Fills It? 

Post#3 » by d-train » Fri Jul 26, 2019 10:51 pm

BNM wrote:Hezonja is a bad shooter, really bad, but still better than Evan Turner.

Do you know what Mario's catch and shoot percentage is? I'm not sure Mario has a shooting record on a team with lead players that create good shots for teammates. We will see.

Neither Aminu or Harkless created shots off the bounce.
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Re: 3-Point Shooting Void - Who Fills It? 

Post#4 » by BNM » Fri Jul 26, 2019 11:07 pm

d-train wrote:
BNM wrote:Hezonja is a bad shooter, really bad, but still better than Evan Turner.

Do you know what Mario's catch and shoot percentage is? I'm not sure Mario has a shooting record on a team with lead players that create good shots for teammates. We will see.

Neither Aminu or Harkless created shots off the bounce.


According to the NBA, 0.275 on catch and shoot 3-pointers.
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Re: 3-Point Shooting Void - Who Fills It? 

Post#5 » by BNM » Fri Jul 26, 2019 11:30 pm

d-train wrote:The 995 attempts will still be there as long as teams have to defend Lillard, CJ, and Whiteside/Nurkic. I'm guessing the new shooters will make more shots than the outgoing player did. Especially, if Whiteside does a better job rebounding than Kanter and Aminu did.


Whiteside is a better defensive rebounder than Kanter, but Kanter is a better offensive rebounder. In fact, Kanter is one of the best offensive rebounders in league history (in terms of ORB% - top 3 the last 5 years in a row).

At the power forward spot the opposite is true. Collins is a better offensive rebounder than Chief, but Chief is a better defensive rebounder.

Kanter = 18.3 ORB%, 22.8 DRB%, 20.8 TRB%
Aminu = 5.3 ORB%, 22.6 DRB%, 14.2 TBB%
Total = 23.6 ORB%, 45.4 DRB%, 35.0 TRB%

Whiteside = 16.3 ORB%, 35.6 DRB%, 25.9 TRB%
Collins = 8.8 ORB%, 16.5 DRB%, 12.7 TBB%
Total = 25.1 ORB%, 52.1 DRB%, 38.6 TRB%

So, small edge to this year's starters, but we don't have any good rebounding bigs coming off the bench (unless you think 39-year old Pau Gasol can discover the fountain of youth). Last year, we had Meyers and Collins, a pair of 7-footers coming off the bench. This year we have a pair of 6'8" guys who rebound like small forwards (Tolliver and Hezonja). So overall, our rebounding will likely be worse due to not having any good rebounders on the second unit.

I'm not as much concerned so much about the attempts as I am accuracy. This is a Stotts coached team. There will be plenty of 3-point shots to go around, the real problem, unless Tolliver and Bazemore both have career years, or Simons is even better than the hype, I'm concerned about replacing the accuracy of Curry and Leonard, the two highest percentage Blazers 3-point shooters both regular season and playoffs. I think we will miss their floor spacing with the second unit.

A full season of Rodney Hood will help a little. He's a better 3-point shooter than Moe Harkless, but typically he shoots it right around league average, not nearly as well as Seth.
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Re: 3-Point Shooting Void - Who Fills It? 

Post#6 » by dunlop212 » Fri Jul 26, 2019 11:50 pm

Bazemore's numbers were solid before he got hurt last year. He'll likely see more open 3s with Portland. I think they see Simons as a big time scorer.

I'm more worried about passing, especially if Whiteside become a ball stopper.
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Re: 3-Point Shooting Void - Who Fills It? 

Post#7 » by Matt800 » Sat Jul 27, 2019 12:58 am

I really would have liked a 40%+ 3 point shooter like Korver but hopefully POR will be able to do well with what they have. I think we'll miss what Curry brought with shooting even though he wasn't especially great in the playoffs.
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Re: 3-Point Shooting Void - Who Fills It? 

Post#8 » by Wizenheimer » Sat Jul 27, 2019 1:34 am

I think people are overrating the 'playing-with-Dame-CJ' factor. It sure didn't help Stauskas, and we didn't see a big bump for Napier. Curry shot the same percentage in Portland as he did in Sacramento

Bazemore is a 7 year veteran with a .352 three point percentage. That's below average and he played for a 60 win Atlanta team that had Millsap, Horford, Teague, and Carroll to draw defense away from Bazemore' space. He shot 36% that year.

Hood shot 36.2% in cleveland on 152 three's, and he only shot 34.5% on 84 three's in Portland. No Portland bump for him. He's always been a streaky shooter and his career mark is 36.7%, a little above average

I see a lot of people seemingly convinced that Portland's spacing will be better when in reality, they've actually downgraded overall in 3 point shooting. I think it's worth noting that last season, Curry and Meyers accounted for 18% of Portland's total made three's. They shot 45%. Portland has nobody close to capable of providing that.

Many Blazer fans tend to think there's magic in Portland. I saw a lot of the same wishful thinking last year for Stauskas. Now, it's for Hezonja, and so far, he's been a crappy three point shooter; and he shot 755 three's so there's no sample size issue.
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Re: 3-Point Shooting Void - Who Fills It? 

Post#9 » by Goldbum » Sat Jul 27, 2019 3:17 am

I would be curious how the minutes break down on our lost 3pts made. Simons+ ZCo +Bazemore +Hood in predicted roles and minutes seems like a big plus. Mario vs ET is more theoretical but possibly a big plus as well. I wish we kept Layman at that price but I see us as an improved shooting team.
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Re: 3-Point Shooting Void - Who Fills It? 

Post#10 » by d-train » Sat Jul 27, 2019 3:33 am

BNM wrote:
d-train wrote:
BNM wrote:Hezonja is a bad shooter, really bad, but still better than Evan Turner.

Do you know what Mario's catch and shoot percentage is? I'm not sure Mario has a shooting record on a team with lead players that create good shots for teammates. We will see.

Neither Aminu or Harkless created shots off the bounce.


According to the NBA, 0.275 on catch and shoot 3-pointers.

That is not his shooting percentage on catch-and-shoot 3 pointers. That was his shooting percentage on all 3 point attempts last year. There can be a difference in the quality of a catch-and-shoot 3 point shot and one created off the bounce. Usually, catch-and-shoot shots are open and a shot off the bounce is taken under heavy contest.
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Re: 3-Point Shooting Void - Who Fills It? 

Post#11 » by BNM » Sat Jul 27, 2019 3:54 am

d-train wrote:
BNM wrote:
d-train wrote:Do you know what Mario's catch and shoot percentage is? I'm not sure Mario has a shooting record on a team with lead players that create good shots for teammates. We will see.

Neither Aminu or Harkless created shots off the bounce.


According to the NBA, 0.275 on catch and shoot 3-pointers.

That is not his shooting percentage on catch-and-shoot 3 pointers. That was his shooting percentage on all 3 point attempts last year. There can be a difference in the quality of a catch-and-shoot 3 point shot and one created off the bounce. Usually, catch-and-shoot shots are open and a shot off the bounce is taken under heavy contest.


That's exactly what it is, according to nba.com's catch and shoot stats:

https://stats.nba.com/players/catch-shoot/?Season=2018-19&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&TeamID=1610612752

He shot .275 on catch and shoot 3-pointers (0.5/1.8 per game) and .276 (0.7/2.6 per game) on all 3-pointers. So, he actually shot a teeny, tiny bit better on non-catch and shoot 3s. Either way, he's not a good 3-point shooter.
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Re: 3-Point Shooting Void - Who Fills It? 

Post#12 » by d-train » Sat Jul 27, 2019 4:06 am

Wizenheimer wrote:I think people are overrating the 'playing-with-Dame-CJ' factor. It sure didn't help Stauskas, and we didn't see a big bump for Napier. Curry shot the same percentage in Portland as he did in Sacramento

Bazemore is a 7 year veteran with a .352 three point percentage. That's below average and he played for a 60 win Atlanta team that had Millsap, Horford, Teague, and Carroll to draw defense away from Bazemore' space. He shot 36% that year.

Hood shot 36.2% in cleveland on 152 three's, and he only shot 34.5% on 84 three's in Portland. No Portland bump for him. He's always been a streaky shooter and his career mark is 36.7%, a little above average

I see a lot of people seemingly convinced that Portland's spacing will be better when in reality, they've actually downgraded overall in 3 point shooting. I think it's worth noting that last season, Curry and Meyers accounted for 21% of Portland's total made three's. They shot 45%. Portland has nobody close to capable of providing that.

Many Blazer fans tend to think there's magic in Portland. I saw a lot of the same wishful thinking last year for Stauskas. Now, it's for Hezonja, and so far, he's been a crappy three point shooter; and he shot 755 three's so there's no sample size issue.

Lillard and CJ will do nothing to improve a teammates ability to make an open 3 point shot. Lillard, CJ, and Whiteside/Nurkic will have a role in creating open shots for teammates. The shooter has to make the shot on his own. The Blazers offense will generate about the same number of open 3 pointers this season as it did last season. The quality of the 3 point shots will be about the same as well. Even though we have almost completely turned our roster on who will take about half those 3 point shots, the factors that create open 3 point shots are unchanged. I believe Bazemore, Hood, Collins, Mario, and Tolliver will shoot better than Aminu, Harkless, Turner, and Layman. Curry and Leonard accounted for only 18% of our 3PM. Curry is a loss in backcourt shooting that isn't replaced by a proven shooter. I don't know who is going to replace that 1 1/2 3PM per game, but I'm not overly worried about it.
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Re: 3-Point Shooting Void - Who Fills It? 

Post#13 » by d-train » Sat Jul 27, 2019 4:39 am

BTW, Tolliver is a very high percentage catch-and-shoot 3 point shooter.
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Re: 3-Point Shooting Void - Who Fills It? 

Post#14 » by d-train » Sat Jul 27, 2019 4:44 am

BNM wrote:
d-train wrote:
BNM wrote:
According to the NBA, 0.275 on catch and shoot 3-pointers.

That is not his shooting percentage on catch-and-shoot 3 pointers. That was his shooting percentage on all 3 point attempts last year. There can be a difference in the quality of a catch-and-shoot 3 point shot and one created off the bounce. Usually, catch-and-shoot shots are open and a shot off the bounce is taken under heavy contest.


That's exactly what it is, according to nba.com's catch and shoot stats:

https://stats.nba.com/players/catch-shoot/?Season=2018-19&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&TeamID=1610612752

He shot .275 on catch and shoot 3-pointers (0.5/1.8 per game) and .276 (0.7/2.6 per game) on all 3-pointers. So, he actually shot a teeny, tiny bit better on non-catch and shoot 3s. Either way, he's not a good 3-point shooter.

He has been a below average 3 point shooter, but last year was outlier bad. He has been and will be better than Harkless.
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Re: 3-Point Shooting Void - Who Fills It? 

Post#15 » by Wizenheimer » Sat Jul 27, 2019 5:18 am

Hezonja has shot 755 three's in his career so far and has a career mark of 32.1%

Harkless has shot 899 three's and has a career mark of 32.3%. As a Blazer he shot 33.1%

but more than that, shooting isn't just about three's...

* The NBA average for FG% is .461. Hezonja's career mark is .417; Harkless is at .476

* The NBA average for eFG% is .524. Hezonja's career mark is .483; Harkless is at .525

* Hezonja's career mark for 2ptFG% is .484; Harkless is at .544

Hezonja is going to be an experiment. But this guy is a 4 year veteran who has averaged nearly 20 points/game over 277 games. He has established his game to a significant extent. Expecting a fairly crappy overall shooter to make big gains just because of being in Portland is not realistic. It hasn't really happened to other players that have joined the Blazers, except for maybe Aminu. Portland is only investing a vet minimum on Hezonja and they needed to fill the slot anyway. So it's not a case they are risking much.

but right now, between Simons and Zach and Bazemore and Tolliver and Hezonja Portland is making lots of bets that players are going improve a lot next season. That's pretty thin ice
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Re: 3-Point Shooting Void - Who Fills It? 

Post#16 » by d-train » Sat Jul 27, 2019 5:42 am

Wizenheimer wrote:Hezonja has shot 755 three's in his career so far and has a career mark of 32.1%

Harkless has shot 899 three's and has a career mark of 32.3%. As a Blazer he shot 33.1%

but more than that, shooting isn't just about three's...

* The NBA average for FG% is .461. Hezonja's career mark is .417; Harkless is at .476

* The NBA average for eFG% is .524. Hezonja's career mark is .483; Harkless is at .525

* Hezonja's career mark for 2ptFG% is .484; Harkless is at .544

Hezonja is going to be an experiment. But this guy is a 4 year veteran who has averaged nearly 20 points/game over 277 games. He has established his game to a significant extent. Expecting a fairly crappy overall shooter to make big gains just because of being in Portland is not realistic. It hasn't really happened to other players that have joined the Blazers, except for maybe Aminu. Portland is only investing a vet minimum on Hezonja and they needed to fill the slot anyway. So it's not a case they are risking much.

but right now, between Simons and Zach and Bazemore and Tolliver and Hezonja Portland is making lots of bets that players are going improve a lot next season. That's pretty thin ice

I don't want to take the time to check your numbers. They look right. I agree with most of your narrative except that Blazers aren't betting on Bazemore and Tolliver to be any better than they have proven. Also, Blazers aren't expecting Hood to be better. I agree Blazers are betting on some improvement from Collins, Mario, and Simons. But, they probably know they aren't going to hit on all 3.
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Re: 3-Point Shooting Void - Who Fills It? 

Post#17 » by kumquat » Sat Jul 27, 2019 10:33 am

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Re: 3-Point Shooting Void - Who Fills It? 

Post#18 » by a_sensei » Sat Jul 27, 2019 4:00 pm

Simons will take Curry's minutes. Obviously the chance of him shooting Curry's percentage is very low but the Blazers are betting on him being a good shooter but that's still to be determined. Curry had his moments but there were a ton of games where he barely got any shots off. Still it's a tough weapon to lose.

The Turner/Harkless/Aminu/Layman minutes will be replaced by Hood/Bazemore/Hezonja/Toliver and an uptick from Collins. There should be better overall volume and percentage even if it just means pushing for league average. A wild card could be Gary Trent Jr. although I think significant minutes are unlikely this season.

Meyers minutes should be replaced by Gasol and/or Tolliver. Like Curry, Leonard is an elite 3-point weapon from his position. But, like Curry, he didn't play a lot minutes or attempt a lot of shots. Gasol and Tolliver are both above average 3 point shooting "bigs."

Lastly, CJ shot significantly below his career percentage during the first half of last year. I think the hope is he is back to the high volume 40+ percent shooter he's been for most his career.
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Re: 3-Point Shooting Void - Who Fills It? 

Post#19 » by HoopsFanAZ » Sat Jul 27, 2019 9:47 pm

Curry wasn't returning. $8 mil per with his previous team, Dallas. That "loss" was to be expected. He was clever on O with the Curry layups and hit his 3's. His D had some clever moments. Moments. He's not a starter nor was that his role on the Blazers.

There are several players I'm glad won't be filling the 3-point shooting void:

1. Meyers Leonard and his Hesitation D. He would be an expensive backup moving forward. Best wishes, Meyers.
2. The Mo Harkless Inconsistency Show, which made the more skilled Nic Batum Inconsistency Show look better (though Mo was paid half as much).
3. The Chief Moon-Ball-3's and attempts to do more with he ball.
4. The ET Non-3-Shooting.

The Blazers brought in players I prefer as Blazers, AND (except for Curry) I didn't much like the outgoing players' 3's. Any VOID of 3's is less significant than the positives those incoming players bring. Portland isn't locked into long contracts or the PR of deciding next summer on ET, MH, and ML. [I include Hood and Collins getting major minutes and Simions playing backup PG as addition by subtraction AND not overpaying backup players.]

I'll wait until seeing the play on the court (20 games in) to become concerned about the year.
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Re: 3-Point Shooting Void - Who Fills It? 

Post#20 » by zzaj » Sat Jul 27, 2019 10:40 pm

It's an interesting question and one that I think has an even deeper question built into it...will the offensive system change based on the roster changes?

The past few years the Blazers have had a lot of continuity and have basically been running the same system with minor tweaks here and there. It can be assumed that Stotts developed what we see based at least partially on his personnel.

This off season is the first time in a few years that the Blazers have had quite a bit of turnover to the roster. Will Stotts make some larger changes to what the Blazers run? Bazemore vs. Turner are very different players, even more so Whiteside and Nurkic. Last season Kanter could basically step into the role that Nurkic played because there are some similarities to their games on the offensive side of the ball. That won't necessarily be the case with Whiteside...

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