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DeBlazerRiddem wrote:Yet from a purely stats perspective 25 was one of his worst playoffs and 26 was his best playoffs while we all should know this last post-season was by far his most meaningful.

I think its qualitatively pretty silly to say he peaked at 25. Everyone goes through statistical variation. CJ is not declining in any real meaningful way so using stats in this way is kind of missing the forest for the trees.

And by "playoff", you mean 4 games each in his 25 and 26 aged seasons. The 311 regular season games in the last four years are probably a more reliable metric to chart his progress.

That doesn't mean I'm ruling out a return to form, but it is equally likely that he stays at current levels or regresses. IMO, it would have been smarter to wait with the extension.

DeBlazerRiddem wrote:

mighty_duck wrote:

GreenRiddler wrote:Peaked at 25 LOL the CJ rhetoric is almost as bad as American politics.

Practically every single advanced stat supports that claim. You can waive off some of them, but ignoring all of them just makes you ignorant.

Age PER TS% WS WS/48 BPM VORP
22 9 0.521 0.2 0.019 -4.1 -0.3
23 13.1 0.534 1.8 0.089 -0.7 0.3
24 17.7 0.544 6 0.104 0.4 1.7
25 19.9 0.585 7.6 0.131 1 2.1
26 17 0.536 6.6 0.108 0.4 1.8
27 17 0.553 5.6 0.114 0.3 1.3

Yet from a purely stats perspective 25 was one of his worst playoffs and 26 was his best playoffs while we all should know this last post-season was by far his most meaningful.

I think its qualitatively pretty silly to say he peaked at 25. Everyone goes through statistical variation. CJ is not declining in any real meaningful way so using stats in this way is kind of missing the forest for the trees.

that one season of CJ's was just a perfect storm for him. Everything broke his way. It's looking more and more like that was an outlier. I guess you could say he regressed after that, but that just seems off and doesn't fit the outlier 'theory'.

I think during that season, opposing teams were busy writing the scouring reports on CJ and have adjusted to his game quite a bit. CJ is not a one-trick pony like Allen Crabbe. He has more to his game. But his skill-set doesn't appear to be broad enough to get back to the top-percentiles in multiple categories of plays. IIRC, in the 2017-18 season CJ was above the 80th percentile in only one type of play: spot-up shooting. I don't think any team really fears CJ with the ball in his hands like they fear Dame. The defenses Portland sees confirm that

Wizenheimer wrote:

DeBlazerRiddem wrote:

mighty_duck wrote:Practically every single advanced stat supports that claim. You can waive off some of them, but ignoring all of them just makes you ignorant.

Age PER TS% WS WS/48 BPM VORP
22 9 0.521 0.2 0.019 -4.1 -0.3
23 13.1 0.534 1.8 0.089 -0.7 0.3
24 17.7 0.544 6 0.104 0.4 1.7
25 19.9 0.585 7.6 0.131 1 2.1
26 17 0.536 6.6 0.108 0.4 1.8
27 17 0.553 5.6 0.114 0.3 1.3

Yet from a purely stats perspective 25 was one of his worst playoffs and 26 was his best playoffs while we all should know this last post-season was by far his most meaningful.

I think its qualitatively pretty silly to say he peaked at 25. Everyone goes through statistical variation. CJ is not declining in any real meaningful way so using stats in this way is kind of missing the forest for the trees.

that one season of CJ's was just a perfect storm for him. Everything broke his way. It's looking more and more like that was an outlier. I guess you could say he regressed after that, but that just seems off and doesn't fit the outlier 'theory'.

I think during that season, opposing teams were busy writing the scouring reports on CJ and have adjusted to his game quite a bit. CJ is not a one-trick pony like Allen Crabbe. He has more to his game. But his skill-set doesn't appear to be broad enough to get back to the top-percentiles in multiple categories of plays. IIRC, in the 2017-18 season CJ was above the 80th percentile in only one type of play: spot-up shooting. I don't think any team really fears CJ with the ball in his hands like they fear Dame. The defenses Portland sees confirm that

I think part of that is CJ doesn't absorb contact the way Lillard does...he avoids it. Nor does CJ have Lillard's burst off the dribble game to warp defenses. CJ's defenders are typically longer and taller than him, so as long as opposing defenders play reasonable man-to-man defense, the worst they are going to do is give up a contested 2pt shot...the worst shot in basketball. Most opposing teams will live with that.

I've long held that CJ could possibly show other dimensions to his game if he had a different role. We've never really had a chance to see that to prove it one way or the other. That isn't the same as thinking he's going to magically turn into a PG. While he's certainly a cerebral player and always will be, CJ is a scorer through and through. He lacks the instincts to setup teammates and suffers from hooplock on most possessions. I'd love to see a usage/assist rate stat among guards...I'm positive he'd be near the bottom of that list.

the more i think about it the more i think cj reminds me of jamal crawford with worse handles lol.
they both go at their own pace ,both have a tunnel like vision, neither one of them makes their teammates better both volume scorers. their best attributes are that they can create their own shot.
difference is jamal was a 6th man and cj is paid and treated like 2nd best player.

https://www.landofbasketball.com/player_comparison/jamal_crawford_vs_cj_mccollum.htm

It looks like CJ is beating Jamal in quite a few categories when you compare them to head to head. Also at this point I would claim that Jamal is quite possibly one of the worst defenders in the league and CJ while not a great defender is at least around league average or maybe slightly above that.

soobias wrote:the more i think about it the more i think cj reminds me of jamal crawford with worse handles lol.
they both go at their own pace ,both have a tunnel like vision, neither one of them makes their teammates better both volume scorers. their best attributes are that they can create their own shot.
difference is jamal was a 6th man and cj is paid and treated like 2nd best player.

Crawford did not become a 6th man until the age of 29. From 23 - 28 he was a starter who averaged about 17 - 18 ppg on about .340 3FG%. So yeah, not as good and less efficient than C.J. at a comparable age. And he did that on losing teams (CHI and NYK). His playoff stats from that era = the empty set, because none of those teams were good enough to make the playoffs in a weak Eastern Conference, in part due to the fact that a very inefficient Jamaal Crawford was their starting SG.

C.J. is the second or third best player on a team that has made the playoffs every year he's been on the team and just went to the WCF because of his play in Game 7 of the DEN series. At this point, he has accomplished more as individual and experienced significantly more team success than Crawford had at a comparable age.

monopoman wrote:....CJ while not a great defender is at least around league average or maybe slightly above that.

how did you arrive at that conclusion?

on the blazers...

defensive rating:

Jusuf Nurkić 105
Maurice Harkless 108
Enes Kanter 109
Al-Farouq Aminu 109
Zach Collins 110
Meyers Leonard 111
Evan Turner 111
Jake Layman 112
Damian Lillard 112
Rodney Hood 113
CJ McCollum 113
Seth Curry 114

defensive box plus/minus:

Jusuf Nurkić 3.6
Maurice Harkless 2.3
Zach Collins 1.0
Al-Farouq Aminu 0.8
Evan Turner 0.7
Enes Kanter -0.3
Meyers Leonard -0.4
Jake Layman -0.6
Damian Lillard -1.1
Rodney Hood -1.2
Seth Curry -1.8
CJ McCollum -1.9

CJ ranked 71st among 108 SG's in DRPM

worse, he ranked 399th among all 514 NBA players tracked last season in DRPM

out of the 317 players who participated in 40 games or more, CJ ranked 310th in defensive box plus/minus. That's right, 310th out of 317

CJ isn't even "average or maybe slightly above" on the Blazers, and he sure isn't close to average among all NBA players. There may be debatable points about CJ on offense, but there's no debate about his defense...he's bad

Yeah, I was basing my claim of decent defense off that new DRAYMOND stat where CJ was just above Damian in the ratings by what I recall seeing. Looks like other stats like DRPM or Defensive Box Plus/Minus make him look much worse.

Draymond Green signed a 4-year/100M extension

CJ at 33M/year on his extension while Green at 25M/year. The damn Warriors always seem to get the best bargains

so far this summer, contracts & extensions signed with the average annual salary:

Kevin Durant $41,063,925
Klay Thompson $37,980,720
Tobias Harris $36,000,000
Khris Middleton $35,500,000
Jimmy Butler $35,197,650
Kemba Walker $35,197,650
Kawhi Leonard $34,379,100
Kyrie Irving $34,122,650
CJ McCollum $33,000,000
Kristaps Porzingis $31,650,600
D'Angelo Russell $29,331,375
Al Horford $27,250,000
Nikola Vucevic $25,000,000
Draymond Green $25,000,000
Harrison Barnes $21,250,000
Malcolm Brogdon $21,250,000
Julius Randle $20,700,000
Terry Rozier $18,900,000
Bojan Bogdanovic $18,275,000
Ricky Rubio $17,000,000
Rudy Gay $16,000,000
Jonas Valanciunas $15,000,000
Kelly Oubre Jr. $15,000,000
Danny Green $15,000,000
Marcus Morris $15,000,000
Bobby Portis $15,000,000
Thaddeus Young $14,545,000
Delon Wright $14,025,000
Terrence Ross $13,500,000
Dewayne Dedmon $13,333,333
Patrick Beverley $13,333,327
J.J. Redick $13,250,000
Brook Lopez $13,000,000

now. all things aren't quite equal on that list. Most of those players were UFA this summer, while guys like CJ and Draymond would have been UFA two summers from now and one summer from now respectively. That's a little mitigation to the numbers although that can take different tracks.

CJ has not been a bargain, and he won't be going forward; but he also won't be a significant overpay either, and his contract should be fairly trade-able a year or two from now. Currently, I'd be surprised if any team other than Portland would want to make a 5 year commitment to CJ at 31.4M/year. But another summer or two of big contracts signed should make the trade market interesting

I see Draymond Green is going to sign a $100/4 contract with the GSW. Makes me wonder if Portland
could have gotten CJ for a similar contract.

As long as he doesn’t get fat again.

He had an incentive to try to get DPOY again.

He had made noises about wanting a max deal and he was a Kluth client so it’s a surprise.

imo we didnt have to sign cj to a extension, wing players are almost a dime a dozen.
i may be off base here but this year should've been the test to see if we retain him or try to trade him since there are no clear cut favorites to win it all.
im no expert but imho if we dont have serious title contentions we should try and keep some flexibility, locking up 2 players for over 70m a year for the next 5 years that arent 2 way players(not trying to bash on them they are who they are) is a lot to tie up..
idk about other teams and what their top 2 guys get, probably around the same.
i know it sounds like cj hate but its not. imo cj is better suited as a 6th man scorer and for those who say if cj was in the east he would be an all star. we dont know how cj would perform when all the focus is on him and teams game plan to stop him.

Wizenheimer wrote:Draymond Green signed a 4-year/100M extension

CJ at 33M/year on his extension while Green at 25M/year. The damn Warriors always seem to get the best bargains

so far this summer, contracts & extensions signed with the average annual salary:

Kevin Durant $41,063,925
Klay Thompson $37,980,720
Tobias Harris $36,000,000
Khris Middleton $35,500,000
Jimmy Butler $35,197,650
Kemba Walker $35,197,650
Kawhi Leonard $34,379,100
Kyrie Irving $34,122,650
CJ McCollum $33,000,000
Kristaps Porzingis $31,650,600
D'Angelo Russell $29,331,375
Al Horford $27,250,000
Nikola Vucevic $25,000,000
Draymond Green $25,000,000
Harrison Barnes $21,250,000
Malcolm Brogdon $21,250,000
Julius Randle $20,700,000
Terry Rozier $18,900,000
Bojan Bogdanovic $18,275,000
Ricky Rubio $17,000,000
Rudy Gay $16,000,000
Jonas Valanciunas $15,000,000
Kelly Oubre Jr. $15,000,000
Danny Green $15,000,000
Marcus Morris $15,000,000
Bobby Portis $15,000,000
Thaddeus Young $14,545,000
Delon Wright $14,025,000
Terrence Ross $13,500,000
Dewayne Dedmon $13,333,333
Patrick Beverley $13,333,327
J.J. Redick $13,250,000
Brook Lopez $13,000,000

now. all things aren't quite equal on that list. Most of those players were UFA this summer, while guys like CJ and Draymond would have been UFA two summers from now and one summer from now respectively. That's a little mitigation to the numbers although that can take different tracks.

CJ has not been a bargain, and he won't be going forward; but he also won't be a significant overpay either, and his contract should be fairly trade-able a year or two from now. Currently, I'd be surprised if any team other than Portland would want to make a 5 year commitment to CJ at 31.4M/year. But another summer or two of big contracts signed should make the trade market interesting

That was actually a max extension for Draymond. They couldn't have offered him a penny more, even if they wanted to.

He could have waited until next summer and been eligible for a new contract worth up to $160 million over 4 years, but I doubt at his age he would have gotten that much.

He chose the security of a 4-year max extension. He saw both KD and Boogie deal with injuries. KD still got a max contract, but he's KD. One significant injury at his age, coming off a season where he averaged 8 ppg, and he would have been looking at Boogie money.

BNM wrote:

Wizenheimer wrote:Draymond Green signed a 4-year/100M extension

CJ at 33M/year on his extension while Green at 25M/year. The damn Warriors always seem to get the best bargains

so far this summer, contracts & extensions signed with the average annual salary:

Kevin Durant $41,063,925
Klay Thompson $37,980,720
Tobias Harris $36,000,000
Khris Middleton $35,500,000
Jimmy Butler $35,197,650
Kemba Walker $35,197,650
Kawhi Leonard $34,379,100
Kyrie Irving $34,122,650
CJ McCollum $33,000,000
Kristaps Porzingis $31,650,600
D'Angelo Russell $29,331,375
Al Horford $27,250,000
Nikola Vucevic $25,000,000
Draymond Green $25,000,000
Harrison Barnes $21,250,000
Malcolm Brogdon $21,250,000
Julius Randle $20,700,000
Terry Rozier $18,900,000
Bojan Bogdanovic $18,275,000
Ricky Rubio $17,000,000
Rudy Gay $16,000,000
Jonas Valanciunas $15,000,000
Kelly Oubre Jr. $15,000,000
Danny Green $15,000,000
Marcus Morris $15,000,000
Bobby Portis $15,000,000
Thaddeus Young $14,545,000
Delon Wright $14,025,000
Terrence Ross $13,500,000
Dewayne Dedmon $13,333,333
Patrick Beverley $13,333,327
J.J. Redick $13,250,000
Brook Lopez $13,000,000

now. all things aren't quite equal on that list. Most of those players were UFA this summer, while guys like CJ and Draymond would have been UFA two summers from now and one summer from now respectively. That's a little mitigation to the numbers although that can take different tracks.

CJ has not been a bargain, and he won't be going forward; but he also won't be a significant overpay either, and his contract should be fairly trade-able a year or two from now. Currently, I'd be surprised if any team other than Portland would want to make a 5 year commitment to CJ at 31.4M/year. But another summer or two of big contracts signed should make the trade market interesting

That was actually a max extension for Draymond. They couldn't have offered him a penny more, even if they wanted to.

He could have waited until next summer and been eligible for a new contract worth up to $160 million over 4 years, but I doubt at his age he would have gotten that much.

He chose the security of a 4-year max extension. He saw both KD and Boogie deal with injuries. KD still got a max contract, but he's KD. One significant injury at his age, coming off a season where he averaged 8 ppg, and he would have been looking at Boogie money.

yeah, Green got a max extension...I forgot the 120% cap on his bump in salary. By the way, I'm thinking CJ got a max extension too

But the max for him was that low because the Warriors got 4 years of him on a cheap 2nd deal deal; just like they got 4 years of Curry and 4 years of Klay on really cheap 2nd contracts.

here's where some pertinent salaries ranked last season


19 CJ McCollum $25,759,766
52 Klay Thompson $18,988,725
57 Allen Crabbe $18,500,000
59 Kent Bazemore $18,089,887
60 Evan Turner $17,868,852
61 Draymond Green $17,469,565

Blazers did get Nurkic on a real bargain deal, but that was mostly a function of Nurkic's really bad timing. He was RFA in a summer when almost no teams had significant cap-space and none of those that did needed a C

Wizenheimer wrote:

BNM wrote:

Wizenheimer wrote:Draymond Green signed a 4-year/100M extension

CJ at 33M/year on his extension while Green at 25M/year. The damn Warriors always seem to get the best bargains

so far this summer, contracts & extensions signed with the average annual salary:

Kevin Durant $41,063,925
Klay Thompson $37,980,720
Tobias Harris $36,000,000
Khris Middleton $35,500,000
Jimmy Butler $35,197,650
Kemba Walker $35,197,650
Kawhi Leonard $34,379,100
Kyrie Irving $34,122,650
CJ McCollum $33,000,000
Kristaps Porzingis $31,650,600
D'Angelo Russell $29,331,375
Al Horford $27,250,000
Nikola Vucevic $25,000,000
Draymond Green $25,000,000
Harrison Barnes $21,250,000
Malcolm Brogdon $21,250,000
Julius Randle $20,700,000
Terry Rozier $18,900,000
Bojan Bogdanovic $18,275,000
Ricky Rubio $17,000,000
Rudy Gay $16,000,000
Jonas Valanciunas $15,000,000
Kelly Oubre Jr. $15,000,000
Danny Green $15,000,000
Marcus Morris $15,000,000
Bobby Portis $15,000,000
Thaddeus Young $14,545,000
Delon Wright $14,025,000
Terrence Ross $13,500,000
Dewayne Dedmon $13,333,333
Patrick Beverley $13,333,327
J.J. Redick $13,250,000
Brook Lopez $13,000,000

now. all things aren't quite equal on that list. Most of those players were UFA this summer, while guys like CJ and Draymond would have been UFA two summers from now and one summer from now respectively. That's a little mitigation to the numbers although that can take different tracks.

CJ has not been a bargain, and he won't be going forward; but he also won't be a significant overpay either, and his contract should be fairly trade-able a year or two from now. Currently, I'd be surprised if any team other than Portland would want to make a 5 year commitment to CJ at 31.4M/year. But another summer or two of big contracts signed should make the trade market interesting

That was actually a max extension for Draymond. They couldn't have offered him a penny more, even if they wanted to.

He could have waited until next summer and been eligible for a new contract worth up to $160 million over 4 years, but I doubt at his age he would have gotten that much.

He chose the security of a 4-year max extension. He saw both KD and Boogie deal with injuries. KD still got a max contract, but he's KD. One significant injury at his age, coming off a season where he averaged 8 ppg, and he would have been looking at Boogie money.

yeah, Green got a max extension...I forgot the 120% cap on his bump in salary. By the way, I'm thinking CJ got a max extension too

But the max for him was that low because the Warriors got 4 years of him on a cheap 2nd deal deal; just like they got 4 years of Curry and 4 years of Klay on really cheap 2nd contracts.

here's where some pertinent salaries ranked last season


19 CJ McCollum $25,759,766
52 Klay Thompson $18,988,725
57 Allen Crabbe $18,500,000
59 Kent Bazemore $18,089,887
60 Evan Turner $17,868,852
61 Draymond Green $17,469,565

Blazers did get Nurkic on a real bargain deal, but that was mostly a function of Nurkic's really bad timing. He was RFA in a summer when almost no teams had significant cap-space and none of those that did needed a C

I believe C.J.'s max extension would have been in the $114 million range.

Nurk was also a free agent at a time when "traditional" centers were considered passe'. Great for the team, kind of a bummer for him, but he seems happy here.

This is one reason I'd like to see Neil go hard after Robert Covington at the trade deadline. He's locked up on a very team friendly deal similar to Nurk's. He's also 5 years older than KAT and 4.5 years older than Wiggins. So, Covington doesn't really fit MIN's timeline. In POR's case, you kind of need a couple of those team friendly bargains to offset what Dame and C.J. are making. Plus, age wise, he fits perfectly with Dame's timeline.

soobias wrote:imo we didnt have to sign cj to a extension, wing players are almost a dime a dozen.
i may be off base here but this year should've been the test to see if we retain him or try to trade him since there are no clear cut favorites to win it all.
im no expert but imho if we dont have serious title contentions we should try and keep some flexibility, locking up 2 players for over 70m a year for the next 5 years that arent 2 way players(not trying to bash on them they are who they are) is a lot to tie up..
idk about other teams and what their top 2 guys get, probably around the same.
i know it sounds like cj hate but its not. imo cj is better suited as a 6th man scorer and for those who say if cj was in the east he would be an all star. we dont know how cj would perform when all the focus is on him and teams game plan to stop him.

Actually, we do. I'm not going to dig up the stats or anything (I'd imagine someone will). but from recollection CJ has done absolutely fine when Lillard is out, and looks fully capable of being "the man" if called upon.

While I'm not super excited about being locked into multiple high-dollar long-term contracts, I think there is a lot more in play with that decision than just "he's a good wing". Many intangibles beyond just CJ being a skilled wing scorer.

BNM wrote:
This is one reason I'd like to see Neil go hard after Robert Covington at the trade deadline. He's locked up on a very team friendly deal similar to Nurk's. He's also 5 years older than KAT and 4.5 years older than Wiggins. So, Covington doesn't really fit MIN's timeline. In POR's case, you kind of need a couple of those team friendly bargains to offset what Dame and C.J. are making. Plus, age wise, he fits perfectly with Dame's timeline.

I'd love Portland to get Covington.

problem is the Blazers would have to come up with 9M in salary in a Covington trade, unless it was a bigger trade with more moving parts

Hood + one of Simons/Little isn't enough salary to get it done; and I'd really think Minny would demand at least one of those guys plus a pick

and the problem with making it a larger trade is that it would just about lock the Blazers into being a tax team in 2020-21and put them in serious jeopardy of paying repeater tax in the 1st year of Dame's super-max and CJ's extension

Wizenheimer wrote:

BNM wrote:
This is one reason I'd like to see Neil go hard after Robert Covington at the trade deadline. He's locked up on a very team friendly deal similar to Nurk's. He's also 5 years older than KAT and 4.5 years older than Wiggins. So, Covington doesn't really fit MIN's timeline. In POR's case, you kind of need a couple of those team friendly bargains to offset what Dame and C.J. are making. Plus, age wise, he fits perfectly with Dame's timeline.

I'd love Portland to get Covington.

problem is the Blazers would have to come up with 9M in salary in a Covington trade, unless it was a bigger trade with more moving parts

Hood + one of Simons/Little isn't enough salary to get it done; and I'd really think Minny would demand at least one of those guys plus a pick

and the problem with making it a larger trade is that it would just about lock the Blazers into being a tax team in 2020-21and put them in serious jeopardy of paying repeater tax in the 1st year of Dame's super-max and CJ's extension

If Nurk comes back and is looking decent by the deadline, a Whiteside for Covington + Dieng trade works, with probably a pick thrown in to entice MIN. The only drawback from POR's side is Dieng isn't an expiring contract (which is also, of course, why MIN would consider this deal).

I wish there was a way to make a Bazemore + pick for Covington trade work, but MIN is over the cap (and hard capped due to the Layman sign and trade). So, a third team would need to be involved. Not sure who and haven't tried to work out the details.

Wizenheimer wrote:

BNM wrote:
This is one reason I'd like to see Neil go hard after Robert Covington at the trade deadline. He's locked up on a very team friendly deal similar to Nurk's. He's also 5 years older than KAT and 4.5 years older than Wiggins. So, Covington doesn't really fit MIN's timeline. In POR's case, you kind of need a couple of those team friendly bargains to offset what Dame and C.J. are making. Plus, age wise, he fits perfectly with Dame's timeline.

I'd love Portland to get Covington.

problem is the Blazers would have to come up with 9M in salary in a Covington trade, unless it was a bigger trade with more moving parts

Hood + one of Simons/Little isn't enough salary to get it done; and I'd really think Minny would demand at least one of those guys plus a pick

and the problem with making it a larger trade is that it would just about lock the Blazers into being a tax team in 2020-21and put them in serious jeopardy of paying repeater tax in the 1st year of Dame's super-max and CJ's extension

After 12/15, Hood + Little + Trent Jr. for Covington works and then as a separate trade, Vonleh for the Swanigan TPE.

Actually Hood + Little plus any of Trent Jr., Hezonja, Tolliver , Gasol would work, but figure MIN would prefer to get two young, cheap players if they are giving up Covington.

I wouldn't call it a bargain but I will say Blazers got a discount. And, Blazers should get a discount. CJ is getting security and his money early. That should be worth a discount.