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Game 13: Portland vs San Antonio 5:30pm SNW

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Re: Game 13: Portland vs San Antonio 5:30pm SNW 

Post#61 » by Wizenheimer » Sun Nov 17, 2019 5:56 pm

DusterBuster wrote:
monopoman wrote:
DusterBuster wrote:
I’m with Blazin, the depth on this years roster is trash. Olshey is usually good at finding diamonds in the rough, but he really pooped the bed this summer in that regard. Tolliver and Herzonja are painfully bad. Worse depth combined with a largely brand new team and significant injuries to key guys is simply a recipe for ... something other than success.

As far as I’m concerned, this is a whatever season. In other words, whatever happens is fine. It’s just a placeholder season until this trade deadline or summer when they reload the team, Nurk is healthy again and Ant, Collins and Little all have another NBA season under their belts.

All that said though, there’s been a bit too much handwringing in general this early in the year. At least in terms of the team chemistry. The injuries and depth worries are totally warranted tho.

To be fair we did have a pretty rough depth situation at the beginning of last year, picking up Kanter+Hood was huge at the deadline and turned a pretty good team into a good team.


It was still better than this year. Granted, it got exponentially better after getting Hood and Kanter, but it wasn’t as bad as this years team was, particularly in the front court.


to that: Portland was 33-21(.611) when Hood joined the Blazers; and 35-23 (.603) when Kanter joined. They finished at .646, although some of that was due to them having, IIRC, the 2nd easiest SOS over the last 25 games

all Portland is missing, from injuries, off the team that made the WC finals is Zach. Nurk has been out for 7 months and 42 games. The injuries are an easy excuse and there is some validity to it, but Zach's talent isn't so enormous that his loss actually gutted the team. The problem was there was nothing behind him. Going from a PF rotation of Aminu/Zach to Zach/Tolliver/Hezonja was a significant downgrade even when Zach was healthy. Going from Aminu/Zach to Hezonja/Tolliver....yikes! And so far, the SF rotation of Harkless/Hood was much better than Hood/Bazemore. And of course, as backup bigs, Kanter/Meyers were worlds better than Skal/Ezeli...sorry, I meant Skal/Gasol

2016 Olshey pretty much hamstrung 2019 Olshey's efforts at building the 2019 roster. Chickens meet roost. Half of the roster, 7 players, are on vet minimum or rookie scale deals that are less than those vet minimums. And that will rise to 8 players when Melo shows up. Meanwhile, Nurk & Hood are on significantly discounted contracts; plus Zach is only making 4.2M. That's 10 players adding up to only a third of the salary cap. Yet, the Blazers have the highest payroll in the league. Portland is paying Harley money for a Moped

I really thought people, Blazer front office included, were underrating the departing players this summer and overrating the replacements. That they were exaggerating the flaws of the players leaving while minimizing or dismissing the flaws of players coming in. So far, that's definitely been the case
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Re: Game 13: Portland vs San Antonio 5:30pm SNW 

Post#62 » by monopoman » Sun Nov 17, 2019 8:40 pm

Wizenheimer wrote:
DusterBuster wrote:
monopoman wrote:To be fair we did have a pretty rough depth situation at the beginning of last year, picking up Kanter+Hood was huge at the deadline and turned a pretty good team into a good team.


It was still better than this year. Granted, it got exponentially better after getting Hood and Kanter, but it wasn’t as bad as this years team was, particularly in the front court.


to that: Portland was 33-21(.611) when Hood joined the Blazers; and 35-23 (.603) when Kanter joined. They finished at .646, although some of that was due to them having, IIRC, the 2nd easiest SOS over the last 25 games

all Portland is missing, from injuries, off the team that made the WC finals is Zach. Nurk has been out for 7 months and 42 games. The injuries are an easy excuse and there is some validity to it, but Zach's talent isn't so enormous that his loss actually gutted the team. The problem was there was nothing behind him. Going from a PF rotation of Aminu/Zach to Zach/Tolliver/Hezonja was a significant downgrade even when Zach was healthy. Going from Aminu/Zach to Hezonja/Tolliver....yikes! And so far, the SF rotation of Harkless/Hood was much better than Hood/Bazemore. And of course, as backup bigs, Kanter/Meyers were worlds better than Skal/Ezeli...sorry, I meant Skal/Gasol

2016 Olshey pretty much hamstrung 2019 Olshey's efforts at building the 2019 roster. Chickens meet roost. Half of the roster, 7 players, are on vet minimum or rookie scale deals that are less than those vet minimums. And that will rise to 8 players when Melo shows up. Meanwhile, Nurk & Hood are on significantly discounted contracts; plus Zach is only making 4.2M. That's 10 players adding up to only a third of the salary cap. Yet, the Blazers have the highest payroll in the league. Portland is paying Harley money for a Moped

I really thought people, Blazer front office included, were underrating the departing players this summer and overrating the replacements. That they were exaggerating the flaws of the players leaving while minimizing or dismissing the flaws of players coming in. So far, that's definitely been the case

https://hoopshype.com/salaries/

You keep saying we have the highest salary when it appears that Houston has more salary this year. Now both teams are very close in total salary but yeah we don't have the highest.
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Re: Game 13: Portland vs San Antonio 5:30pm SNW 

Post#63 » by Norm2953 » Sun Nov 17, 2019 9:01 pm

https://www.basketball-reference.com/contracts/


Irregardless of whether Portland has the highest team payroll or not, we can all agree its far too high for
the talent on hand.
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Re: Game 13: Portland vs San Antonio 5:30pm SNW 

Post#64 » by Wizenheimer » Sun Nov 17, 2019 9:25 pm

monopoman wrote:You keep saying we have the highest salary when it appears that Houston has more salary this year. Now both teams are very close in total salary but yeah we don't have the highest.


pretty sure hoopshype is wrong (which is what they usually are) because they are counting the non-guaranteed contracts of Ryan Anderson, Isiah Hartenstein, Gary Clark, and Ben McClemore. Those players are in the same situation that Melo will be...non-guranteed unless they are still with the team past Jan 10

https://www.basketball-reference.com/contracts/

http://www.basketballinsiders.com/nba-team-salaries-at-a-glance/
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Re: Game 13: Portland vs San Antonio 5:30pm SNW 

Post#65 » by GEE » Sun Nov 17, 2019 9:41 pm

To me, it's obvious we're currently thin when it comes to our bigs, and Tolliver and Mario were meant to be 3rd stringers. With Collins going down it really twisted the knife. I also never really saw Collins as a center, or Skal for that matter. I saw THEM as our PFs, and if Nurkic returned around the All-Star break. We'd have:

Hood / Little
Collins / Skal
Whiteside / Nurkic

Now, -Collins for the year, +Melo +Little it could look like this post AS:

Hood / Little
Skal / Melo
Whiteside / Nurkic

If Collins and Gasol can somehow be back for the playoffs, it could be:

Hood / Melo / Little
Collins / Melo / Skal
Nurkic / Whiteside / Gasol

Disclaimer: not saying these ARE the rotations, but just saying there could be plenty of depth, if we can at least get the 8th seed, and get Nurkic back. If we can also get Collins back before the playoffs, we could still make alot of noise THIS year.
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Re: Game 13: Portland vs San Antonio 5:30pm SNW 

Post#66 » by monopoman » Sun Nov 17, 2019 10:32 pm

This team was playing better with Z. Collins healthy now that was a very small stretch of games since he went down after like 3 games, but Z. Collins stepped up in some of those playoff games last year and really imposed his will defensively at times.
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Re: Game 13: Portland vs San Antonio 5:30pm SNW 

Post#67 » by DeBlazerRiddem » Sun Nov 17, 2019 11:25 pm

Wizenheimer wrote:
monopoman wrote:You keep saying we have the highest salary when it appears that Houston has more salary this year. Now both teams are very close in total salary but yeah we don't have the highest.


pretty sure hoopshype is wrong (which is what they usually are) because they are counting the non-guaranteed contracts of Ryan Anderson, Isiah Hartenstein, Gary Clark, and Ben McClemore. Those players are in the same situation that Melo will be...non-guranteed unless they are still with the team past Jan 10

https://www.basketball-reference.com/contracts/

http://www.basketballinsiders.com/nba-team-salaries-at-a-glance/


I generally go to BBinsiders but doing a bit of a dive into the salaries it looks like there are two main dependencies between Hoopshype, BB ref and BB insiders.

1. Minimum contracts: Hoopshype and BB ref seem to be reporting the dollar amount and disregarding that the league pays a portion of the contract and that portion does not count toward the salary cap. BB insiders reports the correct amount that the team owes and counts toward cap.

2. Incentives: All 3 seem to be using slightly different calculations for this. For example:
- Nurkic makes a base 12 million dollars, with an incentive of 1.25 million for 70 games played and 50 games won. Since he realized both these last year, they are considered "likely" incentives. BB insiders includes this, but BB ref and Hoopshype do not.
- Capela makes a base of 14.9 million dollars, with 3 incentives: Rockets make WCF, Capela has a 30% defensive rebound rate and Capela shoots 65% from the line. Capela realized none of these last year, so all should be unlikely. BB insiders includes none of those, while BB ref counts 1.5 million and Hoopshype counts all 2 million. However, Capela is on-track this year for both the 65% FT (barely) and the 30% rebound rate but I am not sure how (or if) they project if Houston will make WCF or not.

Basically, BB insiders seems the most correct to me on both of those issues, at least I can understand the numbers they give and have the correct inclusion of likely/unlikely incentives.

BB ref and Hoopshype get both the minimum salary wrong and either use out-dated likely/unlikely or are making assumptions about what incentives will be realized this year. Now because Nurkic wont reach his "likely" incentive and Capela may realize all 3 of his "unlikely" incentives then Hoopshype/BB ref may actually be more accurate, but it seems like they got the right answer with the wrong method.

This is all just splitting hairs for nerdy entertainment. The general take-away regardless of whether Portland is a few million ahead or behind Houston is that our salary is waaay too high for our roster.
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Re: Game 13: Portland vs San Antonio 5:30pm SNW 

Post#68 » by monopoman » Sun Nov 17, 2019 11:39 pm

Right we are not seeing a team worth $140ish million dollars I agree.
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Re: Game 13: Portland vs San Antonio 5:30pm SNW 

Post#69 » by Agenda42 » Mon Nov 18, 2019 12:19 am

Wizenheimer wrote:2016 Olshey pretty much hamstrung 2019 Olshey's efforts at building the 2019 roster. Chickens meet roost. Half of the roster, 7 players, are on vet minimum or rookie scale deals that are less than those vet minimums. And that will rise to 8 players when Melo shows up. Meanwhile, Nurk & Hood are on significantly discounted contracts; plus Zach is only making 4.2M. That's 10 players adding up to only a third of the salary cap. Yet, the Blazers have the highest payroll in the league. Portland is paying Harley money for a Moped


Pretty much.

The good news is that all of this bad money is going away shortly. The only big contracts that aren't expiring this year are Dame, Nurkic on a team-friendly deal, and even McCollum's not very good deal is expiring in 2021. The Blazers will go from 2nd highest payroll to 20th this offseason. They'll have a lot of flexibility to make some exciting new mistakes.
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Re: Game 13: Portland vs San Antonio 5:30pm SNW 

Post#70 » by Wizenheimer » Mon Nov 18, 2019 12:42 am

Agenda42 wrote:
Wizenheimer wrote:2016 Olshey pretty much hamstrung 2019 Olshey's efforts at building the 2019 roster. Chickens meet roost. Half of the roster, 7 players, are on vet minimum or rookie scale deals that are less than those vet minimums. And that will rise to 8 players when Melo shows up. Meanwhile, Nurk & Hood are on significantly discounted contracts; plus Zach is only making 4.2M. That's 10 players adding up to only a third of the salary cap. Yet, the Blazers have the highest payroll in the league. Portland is paying Harley money for a Moped


Pretty much.

The good news is that all of this bad money is going away shortly. The only big contracts that aren't expiring this year are Dame, Nurkic on a team-friendly deal, and even McCollum's not very good deal is expiring in 2021. The Blazers will go from 2nd highest payroll to 20th this offseason. They'll have a lot of flexibility to make some exciting new mistakes.


did you forget about CJ's extension? His deal is now:

$27,556,959 - $29,354,152 - $30,864,198 - $33,333,333 - $35,802,469...and it doesn't expire till 2024. 5 more years of inefficient ball-hogging on the way
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Re: Game 13: Portland vs San Antonio 5:30pm SNW 

Post#71 » by Agenda42 » Mon Nov 18, 2019 2:47 am

Wizenheimer wrote:did you forget about CJ's extension? His deal is now:

$27,556,959 - $29,354,152 - $30,864,198 - $33,333,333 - $35,802,469...and it doesn't expire till 2024. 5 more years of inefficient ball-hogging on the way


Oh dear. The source I was looking at for some reason didn't have all the years on that deal.

Things are still going to be better in 2020, but McCollum's deal was already bad this offseason. Even if he gets back to the decent efficiency that he had last year, he has too narrow a game to warrant that much cash.
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Re: Game 13: Portland vs San Antonio 5:30pm SNW 

Post#72 » by d-train » Mon Nov 18, 2019 8:16 pm

There are 3 different reports detailing CJ's extension that I have seen. They say 3 years $100M, 4 years $106M, or 5 years $156M. I think we can assume nobody knows until team salary is reported and the numbers are reverse engineered. The NBA used to have a leaker that posted in the CBA forum, but he passed away. Not knowing never stops reporters from reporting. I haven't checked, but I don't believe an extension can be 5 years. So, that report could be false on its face like so many reports are, especially ones that where coming out this July.
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Re: Game 13: Portland vs San Antonio 5:30pm SNW 

Post#73 » by d-train » Mon Nov 18, 2019 8:36 pm

Wiz's numbers match the 3 year $100M expiring in the 23-24 season. The 5 years include the 2 remaining years on CJ's current deal. If you add up all the remaining years, it totals $156M, which could explain the 5 year $156M report.
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Re: Game 13: Portland vs San Antonio 5:30pm SNW 

Post#74 » by Fitz303 » Mon Nov 18, 2019 8:37 pm

d-train wrote:There are 3 different reports detailing CJ's extension that I have seen. They say 3 years $100M, 4 years $106M, or 5 years $156M. I think we can assume nobody knows until team salary is reported and the numbers are reverse engineered. The NBA used to have a leaker that posted in the CBA forum, but he passed away. Not knowing never stops reporters from reporting. I haven't checked, but I don't believe an extension can be 5 years. So, that report could be false on its face like so many reports are, especially ones that where coming out this July.


Not sure where you saw the 4yr/106M but that ones wrong. The 3yr/100M and 5yr/156M are the same deal, and both are correct. The extension is for 3 more years and 100 million dollars more, after his current contract (2 years and 56 million remaining) are up. So going into this year, CJ had 5 years now left on his contract worth 156 million in total, including both his current contract and his upcoming extension.
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Re: Game 13: Portland vs San Antonio 5:30pm SNW 

Post#75 » by Wizenheimer » Mon Nov 18, 2019 8:49 pm

Fitz303 wrote:
d-train wrote:There are 3 different reports detailing CJ's extension that I have seen. They say 3 years $100M, 4 years $106M, or 5 years $156M. I think we can assume nobody knows until team salary is reported and the numbers are reverse engineered. The NBA used to have a leaker that posted in the CBA forum, but he passed away. Not knowing never stops reporters from reporting. I haven't checked, but I don't believe an extension can be 5 years. So, that report could be false on its face like so many reports are, especially ones that where coming out this July.


Not sure where you saw the 4yr/106M but that ones wrong. The 3yr/100M and 5yr/156M are the same deal, and both are correct. The extension is for 3 more years and 100 million dollars more, after his current contract (2 years and 56 million remaining) are up. So going into this year, CJ had 5 years now left on his contract worth 156 million in total, including both his current contract and his upcoming extension.


the 4yr/106M extension is CJ's rookie extension...the one he's in the 3rd year of right now

CJ's remaining deal(s) are actually 5yr/157M. 31.4M/year. Right now, he has the 7th most guaranteed money in the league...that's just loopy
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Re: Game 13: Portland vs San Antonio 5:30pm SNW 

Post#76 » by d-train » Mon Nov 18, 2019 9:27 pm

Wizenheimer wrote:
Fitz303 wrote:
d-train wrote:There are 3 different reports detailing CJ's extension that I have seen. They say 3 years $100M, 4 years $106M, or 5 years $156M. I think we can assume nobody knows until team salary is reported and the numbers are reverse engineered. The NBA used to have a leaker that posted in the CBA forum, but he passed away. Not knowing never stops reporters from reporting. I haven't checked, but I don't believe an extension can be 5 years. So, that report could be false on its face like so many reports are, especially ones that where coming out this July.


Not sure where you saw the 4yr/106M but that ones wrong. The 3yr/100M and 5yr/156M are the same deal, and both are correct. The extension is for 3 more years and 100 million dollars more, after his current contract (2 years and 56 million remaining) are up. So going into this year, CJ had 5 years now left on his contract worth 156 million in total, including both his current contract and his upcoming extension.


the 4yr/106M extension is CJ's rookie extension...the one he's in the 3rd year of right now

CJ's remaining deal(s) are actually 5yr/157M. 31.4M/year. Right now, he has the 7th most guaranteed money in the league...that's just loopy

I don't how you get to 7th. I suspect you are comparing the 5 years of CJ's contract to the 4 year deals signed this summer and aren't adjusting for the extra year.
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Re: Game 13: Portland vs San Antonio 5:30pm SNW 

Post#77 » by d-train » Mon Nov 18, 2019 9:48 pm

Wizenheimer wrote:
Fitz303 wrote:
d-train wrote:There are 3 different reports detailing CJ's extension that I have seen. They say 3 years $100M, 4 years $106M, or 5 years $156M. I think we can assume nobody knows until team salary is reported and the numbers are reverse engineered. The NBA used to have a leaker that posted in the CBA forum, but he passed away. Not knowing never stops reporters from reporting. I haven't checked, but I don't believe an extension can be 5 years. So, that report could be false on its face like so many reports are, especially ones that where coming out this July.


Not sure where you saw the 4yr/106M but that ones wrong. The 3yr/100M and 5yr/156M are the same deal, and both are correct. The extension is for 3 more years and 100 million dollars more, after his current contract (2 years and 56 million remaining) are up. So going into this year, CJ had 5 years now left on his contract worth 156 million in total, including both his current contract and his upcoming extension.


the 4yr/106M extension is CJ's rookie extension...the one he's in the 3rd year of right now

CJ's remaining deal(s) are actually 5yr/157M. 31.4M/year. Right now, he has the 7th most guaranteed money in the league...that's just loopy

I just looked. Right now CJ has the 21st highest average contract per year. Lillard has the 1st highest by a huge margin. CJ's 21st ranking is going to drop lower every year. By the time CJ collects the first year of his extension, he will most likely not be in the top 40. I think this is a more accurate representation of CJ's extension than your claim.
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Re: Game 13: Portland vs San Antonio 5:30pm SNW 

Post#78 » by Wizenheimer » Mon Nov 18, 2019 9:56 pm

uhhhh...

https://www.basketball-reference.com/contracts/players.html

sort for guaranteed money...that's exactly what I said in my post
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Re: Game 13: Portland vs San Antonio 5:30pm SNW 

Post#79 » by Wizenheimer » Mon Nov 18, 2019 10:08 pm

DeBlazerRiddem wrote:
Wizenheimer wrote:
Spoiler:
monopoman wrote:You keep saying we have the highest salary when it appears that Houston has more salary this year. Now both teams are very close in total salary but yeah we don't have the highest.


pretty sure hoopshype is wrong (which is what they usually are) because they are counting the non-guaranteed contracts of Ryan Anderson, Isiah Hartenstein, Gary Clark, and Ben McClemore. Those players are in the same situation that Melo will be...non-guranteed unless they are still with the team past Jan 10

https://www.basketball-reference.com/contracts/

http://www.basketballinsiders.com/nba-team-salaries-at-a-glance/


I generally go to BBinsiders but doing a bit of a dive into the salaries it looks like there are two main dependencies between Hoopshype, BB ref and BB insiders.

1. Minimum contracts: Hoopshype and BB ref seem to be reporting the dollar amount and disregarding that the league pays a portion of the contract and that portion does not count toward the salary cap. BB insiders reports the correct amount that the team owes and counts toward cap.

2. Incentives: All 3 seem to be using slightly different calculations for this. For example:
- Nurkic makes a base 12 million dollars, with an incentive of 1.25 million for 70 games played and 50 games won. Since he realized both these last year, they are considered "likely" incentives. BB insiders includes this, but BB ref and Hoopshype do not.
- Capela makes a base of 14.9 million dollars, with 3 incentives: Rockets make WCF, Capela has a 30% defensive rebound rate and Capela shoots 65% from the line. Capela realized none of these last year, so all should be unlikely. BB insiders includes none of those, while BB ref counts 1.5 million and Hoopshype counts all 2 million. However, Capela is on-track this year for both the 65% FT (barely) and the 30% rebound rate but I am not sure how (or if) they project if Houston will make WCF or not.

Basically, BB insiders seems the most correct to me on both of those issues, at least I can understand the numbers they give and have the correct inclusion of likely/unlikely incentives.

BB ref and Hoopshype get both the minimum salary wrong and either use out-dated likely/unlikely or are making assumptions about what incentives will be realized this year. Now because Nurkic wont reach his "likely" incentive and Capela may realize all 3 of his "unlikely" incentives then Hoopshype/BB ref may actually be more accurate, but it seems like they got the right answer with the wrong method.

This is all just splitting hairs for nerdy entertainment. The general take-away regardless of whether Portland is a few million ahead or behind Houston is that our salary is waaay too high for our roster.


all valid points

but to continue the nerdy entertainment, Houston just waived Ryan Anderson, so that drops their payroll by 1.1M, at least temporarily. They have 3 other contracts that aren't guaranteed till Jan 10th
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Re: Game 13: Portland vs San Antonio 5:30pm SNW 

Post#80 » by d-train » Mon Nov 18, 2019 10:30 pm

Wizenheimer wrote:uhhhh...

https://www.basketball-reference.com/contracts/players.html

sort for guaranteed money...that's exactly what I said in my post

This shows your comparison is even more worthless than I thought. I figured your representation was distorted because it didn't account for years. However, its more dishonest than that. You didn't count player options as money guaranteed by the team.
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