Game 16: Portland vs Milwaukee 5:00pm SNW/TNT

[d-train]

I think we need to be a bit empathetic, and see the views from the other team's perspective when it comes to potential trades.

No we don't. I only care about the Blazer side of trades.

I know this isn't your point. Actually, you are right that trades begin with teams that have compatible objectives. Trades don't usually happen between teams with the same objective, such as immediate improvement. There are exceptions like the 3-team trade that brought Whiteside. All 3 teams in that trade had the same objective, they wanted immediate improvement. The catalyst for the trade was Butler supposedly had a cap room deal with the Heat facilitated by Mavs. This forced Sixers to make a deal they wouldn't do by choice.

Edit: 4-team trade, forgot about the Clippers.

[Matt800]

Spoiler:

We need to trade CJ and re-tool, it's as simple as that. I also agree with Webber's comments that we need to reduce our ISO play (particularly if CJ is traded, as he's a talented ISO player), despite it working reasonably well in recent years.

I wouldn't be opposed, I just don't see many good options. There are few young guys that I see as equal value and available, and the guys who have matching or near matching contracts are questionable upgrades at best (Aaron Gordon and Tobias Harris are the only ones that come to mind).

I was tremendously high on Luka coming out and wanted to deal CJ and picks to get up into that 3 slot. I cry when thinking of how good this team would be with Doncic, Damian and Nurkic.

Lauri isn't playing well so far and I am extremely high on him too but I don't think CJ would be someone Chicago has interest in, and I don't like the idea of having to pay both Zach and Lauri. And like even less the idea of letting either walk.

At this point I think you roll w/ CJ and hope to upgrade using an EC and targeting the usual suspects (Griffin, Love, Aldridge, Gallo).

I think it's pretty clear that the malarkey Olshey sold all summer: basically that Portland could sacrifice defense and rebounding in favor of offense, and be a better team is a bankrupt narrative. And frankly, Whiteside's ability to garner some 2nd chance points is one of Portland's better offensive components right now
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and adding Griffin or Love, while keeping CJ isn't going to happen either IMO. Portland, and Jody Allen, aren't going to sign up for years of repeater tax. They can't pay 110-125M a year for 4 players (Dame-CJ-Griffin/Love-Nurk) with the tax line being in the 130-140M/year range and not bust way over that line. The idea just isn't practical
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I don't think it is especially fair to say that narrative about Collins and Whiteside covering defense is wrong. Collins has been out. I really liked the potential they showed against Denver in the first game, but we haven't seen a big enough sample size to say it has worked or not.

I agree with the sentiment that some of the moves over the summer were questionable though. Bazemore, and Tolliver were underwhelming options to me, although I don't know of a better alternative. I think keeping Layman over Hezonja could have been much better. Jake had shown defensive potential, effort, some offensive skill, and knew the system. He wasn't terribly expensive either. And relying so heavily on Collins was risky. Although most teams have players they can't afford to lose.

A lot of people talk about the cost, but do we actually know the team isn't willing to pay that money? Jody said her goal was to win multiple championships, which somewhat implies a willingness to spend money. On the Rip City Report Podcast Casey and Joe (reporters regularly around trailblazers) shared their opinion that expiring contracts would get moved this season but primarily because they thought the team would want to lock in to longer contracts. To their understanding, the team doesn't have confidence in using cap room in free agency to get better, so flipping the ECs for longer contracts is their opportunity.

I could see the plausibility of either approach happening of money managing, or committing hard to the next few years. The latter makes more sense to me, because it's not like a franchise gets a Lillard very often. And Portland already has a lot of good pieces. Say they move Whiteside for Love. That is a lot of talent they can work with for the next few years. I don't know a lot about the financial side, but it looks like The Trail Blazers made $1.6 billion last season. It would be interesting to know what their profit was and how much it would project to be if they commit more money to the roster. If they would lose a ton of money, then they probably don't do it. But if it gets them deep in the playoffs for a few years, or a championship, that adds a lot of value.

[Wizenheimer]

I don't think it is especially fair to say that narrative about Collins and Whiteside covering defense is wrong. Collins has been out. I really liked the potential they showed against Denver in the first game, but we haven't seen a big enough sample size to say it has worked or not.

I'm not sure I said that

Collins spent about half of his time last year at C, and was headed that direction this year. That would still leave around 30-35 minutes a game at PF to fill. Last year, Portland was getting 36-40 minutes a game at PF from Aminu/Zach, and they had Harkless to fill in at the position situationally. And Harkless was a better PF than either Hezonja or Tolliver.

but more than that is the simple equation that both Aminu and Harkless were much more capable defensively on the perimeter than Zach. Yes, Zach is a better rim protector because of his length. But he just doesn't have the quickness to go out on the edges and consistently defend guys like Durant or PG13 or Kawhi or Lebron or Draymond or Giannis. That's what Portland doesn't have defensively this season, and it was pretty obvious they weren't going to have it when the roster was completed. The front office sacrificed that component of the defense for the sake of offense and spacing that hasn't shown up. Zach was not going to help eith very significantly

I mean for chrissakes, the Blazers went from a PF rotation of Aminu/Zach/Harkless to Zach/Tolliver/Hezonja. What is there about that exchange looks like a good idea?

And relying so heavily on Collins was risky. Although most teams have players they can't afford to lose.

it was more than just high risk though. Tolliver was 'signed' on the 3rd of July, 3 days before the moratorium ended. There were still plenty of vet minimum PF-C free agents available at the time. Guys like Vonleh, Kyle O'Quinn, Nerlens Noel, Jahlil Okafor. Guys who could actually backstop a lot of the things that Collins does. Then Olshey compounds the mistake by signing a 39 year old C who had undergone surgery for a foot stress fracture less than 2 months earlier. That's adding stupid risk on top of dumb risk

A lot of people talk about the cost, but do we actually know the team isn't willing to pay that money? Jody said her goal was to win multiple championships, which somewhat implies a willingness to spend money. On the Rip City Report Podcast Casey and Joe (reporters regularly around trailblazers) shared their opinion that expiring contracts would get moved this season but primarily because they thought the team would want to lock in to longer contracts. To their understanding, the team doesn't have confidence in using cap room in free agency to get better, so flipping the ECs for longer contracts is their opportunity.

I could see the plausibility of either approach happening of money managing, or committing hard to the next few years. The latter makes more sense to me, because it's not like a franchise gets a Lillard very often. And Portland already has a lot of good pieces. Say they move Whiteside for Love. That is a lot of talent they can work with for the next few years. I don't know a lot about the financial side, but it looks like The Trail Blazers made $1.6 billion last season. It would be interesting to know what their profit was and how much it would project to be if they commit more money to the roster. If they would lose a ton of money, then they probably don't do it. But if it gets them deep in the playoffs for a few years, or a championship, that adds a lot of value.

it's true, I don't know how much luxury tax Jody Allen is willing to pay. But I can do math and see that if they made a move for a player like Love using expiring contract(s), the tax penalty will be heavy. They might actually pay more next season, alone, than they will have paid the two previous season. And the following season they'd be in the repeater tax with Nurkic due for a new contract. So then, will Jody be willing to pay 60-100M in tax over the next 2 seasons?

besides that, in order to swing a trade like that, and fill the roster, Portland would be relying even more on vet minimum deals next season. They might need at least 4. They have 3 this year in Tolliver, Hezonja, and Gasol....how did those work out? and how much more, or less, would that make Jody willing to pay big tax for a roster with all that minimum salary talent?

[Matt800]

Yeah I would have liked one of Harkless, Aminu, or Layman to be retained. I was interested in Layman because it looked to me like he hadn't reached his ceiling, while Harkless and Aminu pretty much showed what they can do.

Some of the acquisitions or lack thereof are head scratchers, but it's possible when we are talking about free agents, that they just don't want to come to Portland.

And I think sometimes certain player acquisitions have supplementary value for bringing in more of a fanbase. Like international players, or old future hof guys. Such as Carmelo, Gasol, and Hezonja. Gasol also may have been a big win if he ends up being an assistant coach with portland for the long term.

Yeah I wonder how it will work out financially and building the roster. There are guys showing talent that have expiring contracts soon, so they need to get resigned as well. If Skal has more big games, how much is he going to cost? But also if Portland makes a deeper playoff run, or improves interest in their brand due to winning or more star power, then that all could off-set the roster costs.

[Norm2953]

Portland's long term future will be built around the core of Dame/CJ, Simon, Little and how well
Nurkic and Collins recover from their injuries.

The rest of this season will involve how well the rest of the guys on the roster will fit moving forward.
Portland will likely need to find a quality SF and we could certainly use a PF to provide the defensively
versatility that Wiz and Matt have pinpointed so well. If we get a lottery pick out of this season, the
strength of this draft is at PG but BE is projecting a Euro SF (Deni Avdija) as a potential target if Hood
opts out of his contract. I'm hopeful for the potential for next season for NO has set this team up well
for a roster reset for I'm hopeful we'll add a useful piece to the roster moving forward with our
expiring contracts.

[GEE]

We need to trade CJ and re-tool, it's as simple as that. I also agree with Webber's comments that we need to reduce our ISO play (particularly if CJ is traded, as he's a talented ISO player), despite it working reasonably well in recent years.

I wouldn't be opposed, I just don't see many good options. There are few young guys that I see as equal value and available, and the guys who have matching or near matching contracts are questionable upgrades at best (Aaron Gordon and Tobias Harris are the only ones that come to mind).

I was tremendously high on Luka coming out and wanted to deal CJ and picks to get up into that 3 slot. I cry when thinking of how good this team would be with Doncic, Damian and Nurkic.

Lauri isn't playing well so far and I am extremely high on him too but I don't think CJ would be someone Chicago has interest in, and I don't like the idea of having to pay both Zach and Lauri. And like even less the idea of letting either walk.

At this point I think you roll w/ CJ and hope to upgrade using an EC and targeting the usual suspects (Griffin, Love, Aldridge, Gallo).

let's dispense with that last idea first (and yeah, this all strictly my opinion).

*Trading Bazemore for Gallo or Whiteside for Aldridge isn't going to change Portland's trajectory. Right now, Bazemore is about the only perimeter player for Portland that can play consistent defense (other than Hezonja who sucks everywhere else). And Portland's biggest problem, other than defense, is rebounding; and a Whiteside for Aldridge swap is a massive downgrade in rebounding. For chrissakes, Whiteside has a defensive rebounding rate of 29.3%. Aldridge is at 15.8% and his overall rebounding rate of 11.1% is pathetic. Nas is better

I think it's pretty clear that the malarkey Olshey sold all summer: basically that Portland could sacrifice defense and rebounding in favor of offense, and be a better team is a bankrupt narrative. And frankly, Whiteside's ability to garner some 2nd chance points is one of Portland's better offensive components right now
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and adding Griffin or Love, while keeping CJ isn't going to happen either IMO. Portland, and Jody Allen, aren't going to sign up for years of repeater tax. They can't pay 110-125M a year for 4 players (Dame-CJ-Griffin/Love-Nurk) with the tax line being in the 130-140M/year range and not bust way over that line. The idea just isn't practical
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so then, If I'm anywhere close to right, there are only a couple of options left to Portland short of tearing down and rebuilding. One is to keep doing what they have been doing essentially for 4+ years, and that's rearranging the lower part of the roster hoping for miracles. Exchanging Hood for Harkless, or Zach for Aminu, or Bazemore for Turner isn't changing anything significant. It's not going to change Portland's trajectory. Messing around with rotation players 4-9 won't move the needle. Neither will exchanging role players for role players. This season is just another argument against that hail-mary approach

if Portland wants to change their trajectory they have to look at the core. AFAIC, the core right now consists of 3 players: Dame, CJ, and Nurk. Then there are 3 players who are core-support (Simons-Zach-Little), mainly because they flash potential and are still on rookie scale contracts. And god knows Portland needs cheap contracts with the super-max for Dame and the ill-advised CJ extension bloating their payroll
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Dame is here for good. Portland needs Nurkic badly. That leaves CJ as the major asset that could be moved and potentially change the trajectory in a substantial fashion

and sometimes, the first step is an addition by subtraction move. That's what the Warriors had the balls to do when they traded Monta Ellis for Bogut. What the Pacers did when they traded Paul George for Oladipo and Sabonis (yeah, PG forced their hand). Golden State already had Monta's replacement in Klay when they made that move. The Blazers have Simons and Hood as potential replacements. A CJ for Griffin trade would offer a major change. Same with a CJ for Love or a CJ for Harris or a CJ for Otto Porter deal; or some other variation. Sure, there are risks. But there may be an even bigger risk in 5 more seasons of the Dame/CJ experiment; 5 more seasons of CJ hogging 25% of Blazer possessions; 5 more years of CJ being in the top-15 in FGA's but not cracking the top-100 in any efficiency or impact category; 5 more years of CJ dribbling away big chunks of Blazer shot clocks; 5 more years of CJ spending 25% of the Blazer salary cap; and most important of all, burning thru the rest of Dame's prime because Olshey has a love affair with CJ. That's the alternative, and I'm sure CJ fans would be delighted with that prospect

but we all know CJ is not going nowhere as long as the current GM is in place. So yeah, let's waste Whiteside's expiring contract on 34 year old Aldridge

I think this same argument could be made for trading Dame and not CJ. Especially considering that the potential return on a Dame trade, could bring Portland a championship.

And I think LA is a far better player than Whiteside, so I don't really agree with you there either.

[Wizenheimer]

I think this same argument could be made for trading Dame and not CJ. Especially considering that the potential return on a Dame trade, could bring Portland a championship.

that's just loopy....teams never get an equal return for trading away their franchise star...exchanging easily their best player for a couple of lesser players and a pick...or worse.

* Denver traded Melo after playing in the WC finals. Since then they have been in the playoffs 4 times and the lottery 5 times. And they've only won one playoff series in 9 years

* Utah traded Deron Williams after playing in the WC semi's two times in three years. They spent 5 of the next 6 seasons in the late lottery, and the one time they made the playoffs, they got swept. By the time they made it back into the playoffs they only had one asset they got in the Deron trade and that was Favors who was averaging only 9 points and 6 rebounds

* the Lakers traded Shaq who had led them to 3 championships. They were in the lottery the next season and had 2 straight 1st round exits the following years. The only reason they made it back to supremacy was because they traded for Pau Gasol, not because they traded away Shaq. And of course there's the tiny detail that they still had Kobe. He was about a gagillion times better than CJ

* Chis Paul led New Orleans into the playoffs 3 times. He was traded and the Pels spent 5 of the next 6 years in the lottery. And when they made the playoffs (remember them sweeping Portland?) it was because they drafted AD from sucking so bad without CP3; and when they beat Portland, they didn't have a single asset on their team from the Paul trade.

nothing in history suggests Portland trading away Dame would result in a championship. Even when you go way back to times when there wasn't all the trade rules of today, it didn't work out for teams. The Bucks won a championship with Kareem, but haven't even made it to the finals again in 45 years. Take a wild guess what happened to the 76ers after they traded Wilt

something else, take a look at the top 10 players in remaining guaranteed money:

Damian Lillard $257,429,274
Klay Thompson $189,903,600
Tobias Harris $180,000,000
Ben Simmons $177,763,930
Jamal Murray $174,094,746
Devin Booker $158,050,000
CJ McCollum $156,911,111
Karl-Anthony Towns $155,870,000
Khris Middleton $137,103,448
Kyrie Irving $136,490,600

Dame will be turning 30 next summer and he's starting to show some signs of wear and tear. No team is going to give Portland championship level assets in order to pay a 6'2 guard, in his 30's, more than a quarter billion dollars. It's naive to think otherwise

trading Dame isn't the path to a championship, it's the opposite. But if Portland takes that path they'd need to trade CJ as well, and maybe Nurkic. Trade them all for draft pick opportunities and go full Hinkie. It's a stupid plan, but at least it's smarter than just trading Dame

And I think LA is a far better player than Whiteside, so I don't really agree with you there either

he's probably better, but he's not "far" better. And Whiteside doubles Aldridge in rebound rate, and rebounding is one of Portland's biggest flaws. Getting worse on the boards isn't going to make anything better. And Whiteside significantly out-performs Aldridge in PER, TS%, FT Rate, and winshare/48. If Portland is going to dump Whiteside I would hope they look at other options first because I don't think Aldridge will change Portland's trajectory at all. He'd just be another Blazers who would go one-on-one half the time. Besides that, the Spurs won't do a straight swap...they'll want more, likely Portland's 1st round pick. 34 year old Aldridge isn't worth that

[d-train]

Trading CJ is no more the path to wining a championship than trading Lillard is. In fact, Blazers might be one of the 85% of teams with no path to a championship with their current players. If we don't have a championship team, it's most likely because we need a better best player. 13 of our 14 players are more likely capable of playing a similar role on a championship team than Lillard is capable of being the best player on a champion.

[GEE]

Thanks D-Train, that was very much the point I was trying to make. Maybe Dame's worth that super-max contract if you include all of the advertising dollars he brings to the franchise, but not as a player IMO, for all the reasons that Wiz pointed out. He's no Kobe.