ImageImage

2020 free agent targets and draft picks

Moderators: The Sebastian Express, Moonbeam, DeBlazerRiddem

User avatar
d-train
RealGM
Posts: 19,841
And1: 857
Joined: Mar 26, 2001
   

2020 free agent targets and draft picks 

Post#1 » by d-train » Sat Feb 15, 2020 1:57 am

Here's an interesting read:
https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2875693-ranking-every-nba-team-as-2020-free-agent-destinations#slide17

Assuming Blazers have nontax-MLE $9.9M, $3.9M BAE, and $7M TPE, who do the Blazers target with these "tools" as Olshey calls them? The TPE isn't directly a free agency tool, but it might help Blazers get a player from a team that needs to clear some salary for free agency or other reasons.

I am hoping the Blazers can re-sign Melo using the BAE.

I am also anxious to see what we get out of the best 1st round pick we have had since Collins in 2017 and CJ in 2013.
Image
Matt800
Pro Prospect
Posts: 808
And1: 234
Joined: Aug 01, 2014

Re: 2020 free agent targets and draft picks 

Post#2 » by Matt800 » Sat Feb 15, 2020 11:05 pm

Maybe get a SF, and center through free agency. Maybe re-sign Carmelo if he will play off the bench for vet min. Say they get Harkless and Tristan Thompson

Team looks something like:
Lillard/Simons
CJ/Hood/Trent Jr
Ariza/Harkless/Little
Collins/Melo?
Nurkic/Thompson
User avatar
d-train
RealGM
Posts: 19,841
And1: 857
Joined: Mar 26, 2001
   

Re: 2020 free agent targets and draft picks 

Post#3 » by d-train » Sun Feb 16, 2020 1:19 am

Matt800 wrote:Maybe get a SF, and center through free agency. Maybe re-sign Carmelo if he will play off the bench for vet min. Say they get Harkless and Tristan Thompson

Team looks something like:
Lillard/Simons
CJ/Hood/Trent Jr
Ariza/Harkless/Little
Collins/Melo?
Nurkic/Thompson

This is attainable if Melo signs for the BAE and Thompson can be had with a sign-n-trade with Cleveland using our $7M TPE. I suspect Harkless would cost most (if not all) our MLE. However, I think you have 2 open roster spots and are out of money unless the Blazers decide to pay luxury taxes.

Shooting could be a problem with this roster. You are replacing Hasson with an even worse shooter without the rebounding and shot blocking. Hood could probably shore up the shooting, but I don't know when he will be back.

Seeing how tight we are against that tax threshold with Ariza's salary, we might have to trade Hood for a healthy player in order to make salary room. To get Thompson, we might have to trade Hood just to stay under the tax.
Image
Matt800
Pro Prospect
Posts: 808
And1: 234
Joined: Aug 01, 2014

Re: 2020 free agent targets and draft picks 

Post#4 » by Matt800 » Sun Feb 16, 2020 1:53 am

d-train wrote:
Spoiler:
Matt800 wrote:Maybe get a SF, and center through free agency. Maybe re-sign Carmelo if he will play off the bench for vet min. Say they get Harkless and Tristan Thompson

Team looks something like:
Lillard/Simons
CJ/Hood/Trent Jr
Ariza/Harkless/Little
Collins/Melo?
Nurkic/Thompson

This is attainable if Melo signs for the BAE and Thompson can be had with a sign-n-trade with Cleveland using our $7M TPE. I suspect Harkless would cost most (if not all) our MLE. However, I think you have 2 open roster spots and are out of money unless the Blazers decide to pay luxury taxes.

Shooting could be a problem with this roster. You are replacing Hasson with an even worse shooter without the rebounding and shot blocking. Hood could probably shore up the shooting, but I don't know when he will be back.

Seeing how tight we are against that tax threshold with Ariza's salary, we might have to trade Hood for a healthy player in order to make salary room. To get Thompson, we might have to trade Hood just to stay under the tax.


Hood has to sign off on any trade to my understanding. That lineup is banking on Simons, Trent jr, and/or Little improving. But I think the Blazers will do that. This season they prioritized Simons and Collins and I am guessing they will stick with that by not signing someone who will take their spots. The roster could be filled out with vet mins, and 2 way players. I forgot Hezonja as well.

I picked Harkless because he seems like an affordable SF who can play defense, hit 3s fairly decently, and add some continuity. But I don't know what his market value is. Regarding shooting Melo and Harkless are decent 3 point shooters, Hood this season was great, and Trent has been very good. Little and Simons have shown potential as well.

I think a 3 and D SF and a PF/C big who can defend, has a well rounded game, and ideally hit 3s is what the team needs. There are better free agents than Harkless and Thompson, but I would be surprised if Portland gets some of the better options.
User avatar
d-train
RealGM
Posts: 19,841
And1: 857
Joined: Mar 26, 2001
   

Re: 2020 free agent targets and draft picks 

Post#5 » by d-train » Sun Feb 16, 2020 2:18 am

Matt800 wrote:
d-train wrote:
Spoiler:
Matt800 wrote:Maybe get a SF, and center through free agency. Maybe re-sign Carmelo if he will play off the bench for vet min. Say they get Harkless and Tristan Thompson

Team looks something like:
Lillard/Simons
CJ/Hood/Trent Jr
Ariza/Harkless/Little
Collins/Melo?
Nurkic/Thompson

This is attainable if Melo signs for the BAE and Thompson can be had with a sign-n-trade with Cleveland using our $7M TPE. I suspect Harkless would cost most (if not all) our MLE. However, I think you have 2 open roster spots and are out of money unless the Blazers decide to pay luxury taxes.

Shooting could be a problem with this roster. You are replacing Hasson with an even worse shooter without the rebounding and shot blocking. Hood could probably shore up the shooting, but I don't know when he will be back.

Seeing how tight we are against that tax threshold with Ariza's salary, we might have to trade Hood for a healthy player in order to make salary room. To get Thompson, we might have to trade Hood just to stay under the tax.


Hood has to sign off on any trade to my understanding. That lineup is banking on Simons, Trent jr, and/or Little improving. But I think the Blazers will do that. This season they prioritized Simons and Collins and I am guessing they will stick with that by not signing someone who will take their spots. The roster could be filled out with vet mins, and 2 way players. I forgot Hezonja as well.

I picked Harkless because he seems like an affordable SF who can play defense, hit 3s fairly decently, and add some continuity. But I don't know what his market value is. Regarding shooting Melo and Harkless are decent 3 point shooters, Hood this season was great, and Trent has been very good. Little and Simons have shown potential as well.

I think a 3 and D SF and a PF/C big who can defend, has a well rounded game, and ideally hit 3s is what the team needs. There are better free agents than Harkless and Thompson, but I would be surprised if Portland gets some of the better options.

Harkless gives us a good inside scorer and a ballhawking defender. Both skills are useful. I was disappointed with the job Mo did defending Joker in the playoffs, but he is a quality player. I don't know that much about Thompson except that he has no shooting range, which defenses can use to get creative with defensive schemes to throw at our ball-handlers.

Without verifying, I believe Hood's trade restriction goes away when he picks up the option on his final year. Who knows, but I don't believe Hezonja is NOT going to pick up that option, unless he has an injury that takes him out of a big chunk of next year.

I agree a PF/C with skills to stretch the defense is a need. I think rather than a 3-and-d wing, a 3-pt shooting wing with ball handling skills is more useful. That screams Hood, but I don't know when he will be available to play.
Image
User avatar
d-train
RealGM
Posts: 19,841
And1: 857
Joined: Mar 26, 2001
   

Re: 2020 free agent targets and draft picks 

Post#6 » by d-train » Sun Feb 16, 2020 2:25 am

As for the stretch PF/C need, I wouldn't rule out Swanigan. Maybe we can do better using the $7M TPE, but I don't believe Thompson fills this role.
Image
Matt800
Pro Prospect
Posts: 808
And1: 234
Joined: Aug 01, 2014

Re: 2020 free agent targets and draft picks 

Post#7 » by Matt800 » Sun Feb 16, 2020 3:07 am

d-train wrote:As for the stretch PF/C need, I wouldn't rule out Swanigan. Maybe we can do better using the $7M TPE, but I don't believe Thompson fills this role.


Yeah I like Swanigan's hustle but I imagine we can do better. Thompson has technically hit 3s at 50% this year, but he does not shoot many. There are potentially better fitting free agents available, but Thompson has a lot of playoff experience, and has skill-sets that would be valuable. I don't know a ton about him but it seems like he could play with Nurkic, or Collins, giving some versatility. But there are a lot of options, guys like Ibaka, Baynes, Millsap, etc would be nice. There's also Nerlens and Meyers Leonard.

I think a ball handling SF is always nice, but like you said that's Hood, and Trent Jr has shown a surprising amount of ability there as well. But if they could get one of the several good SFs that are free agents that would be great.
User avatar
d-train
RealGM
Posts: 19,841
And1: 857
Joined: Mar 26, 2001
   

Re: 2020 free agent targets and draft picks 

Post#8 » by d-train » Sun Feb 16, 2020 3:54 am

Swanigan is probably not got going to be on the team next year. But, his high post skills aren't that bad. He has shot a lousy % of his long 2's and 3's, but he has only shot 17 3's and 20 2's. He made those shots in college with a bigger sample size.

I like Baynes. I am very impressed with his play against us this year.

Edit: Millsap is a pipedream for the MLE or trade, same with Ibaka.
Image
User avatar
d-train
RealGM
Posts: 19,841
And1: 857
Joined: Mar 26, 2001
   

Re: 2020 free agent targets and draft picks 

Post#9 » by d-train » Sun Feb 16, 2020 4:23 am

Assuming we don't waive Ariza, the first big move is to either re-sign Whiteside or sign-and-trade him. This requires satisfying Whiteside, which might not be possible. We can't do anything until we unlock Whiteside's cap hold. Whatever happens with Whiteside will define our offseason.
Image
User avatar
d-train
RealGM
Posts: 19,841
And1: 857
Joined: Mar 26, 2001
   

Re: 2020 free agent targets and draft picks 

Post#10 » by d-train » Sun Feb 16, 2020 4:50 am

I like Gallinari with the MLE.

Damian Lillard
C.J. McCollum
Jusuf Nurkic
Zach Collins
Carmelo Anthony
Danilo Gallinari
Trevor Ariza
Hassan Whiteside
Anfernee Simons
Gary Trent Jr.
Nassir Little
2020 FRP
-IR Rodney Hood
-Open roster spot and approx $2M under the tax
Image
Matt800
Pro Prospect
Posts: 808
And1: 234
Joined: Aug 01, 2014

Re: 2020 free agent targets and draft picks 

Post#11 » by Matt800 » Sun Feb 16, 2020 5:37 am

d-train wrote:I like Gallinari with the MLE.

Damian Lillard
C.J. McCollum
Jusuf Nurkic
Zach Collins
Carmelo Anthony
Danilo Gallinari
Trevor Ariza
Hassan Whiteside
Anfernee Simons
Gary Trent Jr.
Nassir Little
2020 FRP
-IR Rodney Hood
-Open roster spot and approx $2M under the tax


I would like Gallinari too but I think he will cost more than Portland has. I also wonder if Portland considers his injury history coming off this season with so many injuries. But I think if they can get Gallinari it's an easy choice.
User avatar
d-train
RealGM
Posts: 19,841
And1: 857
Joined: Mar 26, 2001
   

Re: 2020 free agent targets and draft picks 

Post#12 » by d-train » Sun Feb 16, 2020 5:56 am

I don't see Gallo getting more than $10 from a winning team. Sure, we might lose out on getting him because he might like another team better. His only chance of getting more money was for OKC to trade him to a team that would re-sign him. Another shot Gallo might have at getting more money, is if a team with cap space craps out and gets no top FA. They might use their cap room to overpay Gallo to a 1-year deal hoping to trade him for draft picks and an overpaid player.

The biggest challenge with my scenario would be getting Melo to accept the BAE. If we can't get Gallo with the MLE, there are other good targets we can go after with the full or partial MLE. Melo is going to say, why should I take less than you are offering those guys. Melo would have to agree to accept less so the Blazers can pay more to get better players to back him up. Something Lillard and CJ aren't doing.

Edit: Then again, Lillard and CJ are showing up to all the games when they are healthy.
Image
Matt800
Pro Prospect
Posts: 808
And1: 234
Joined: Aug 01, 2014

Re: 2020 free agent targets and draft picks 

Post#13 » by Matt800 » Sun Feb 16, 2020 6:52 am

d-train wrote:I don't see Gallo getting more than $10 from a winning team. Sure, we might lose out on getting him because he might like another team better. His only chance of getting more money was for OKC to trade him to a team that would re-sign him. Another shot Gallo might have at getting more money, is if a team with cap space craps out and gets no top FA. They might use their cap room to overpay Gallo to a 1-year deal hoping to trade him for draft picks and an overpaid player.

The biggest challenge with my scenario would be getting Melo to accept the BAE. If we can't get Gallo with the MLE, there are other good targets we can go after with the full or partial MLE. Melo is going to say, why should I take less than you are offering those guys. Melo would have to agree to accept less so the Blazers can pay more to get better players to back him up. Something Lillard and CJ aren't doing.

Edit: Then again, Lillard and CJ are showing up to all the games when they are healthy.


Well do we know that Portland is getting a 9 mil MLE? Portland is a tax team so wouldn't they have a 6 mil MLE?

I don't think Melo is getting much money. His numbers are comparable to his OKC season and off that he got around 2 mil. I think he would get the vet min.
User avatar
d-train
RealGM
Posts: 19,841
And1: 857
Joined: Mar 26, 2001
   

Re: 2020 free agent targets and draft picks 

Post#14 » by d-train » Sun Feb 16, 2020 12:48 pm

Blazers will have nontax-MLE and BAE this summer. We will also be able to do sign-and-trades. If we use any of these 3 exceptions, we will be hard capped at the apron. More than likely Blazers will cap themselves at the tax threshold.

We do need to resolve Whiteside's cap hold before we get these non-tax benefits. We resolve this by re-signing him, sign-and-trading him, or renouncing him.

Melo made $28M last year and $26M the prior year. When he signed with Rockets, he didn't have incentive to get paid by Rockets or anyone. The money would have went to Hawks. His first pay cut is this year. He couldn't even get a guaranteed contract, but it wasn't because of his basketball ability. Teams were worried he wouldn't accept a complementary role and would be a malcontent.

I don't know how teams will view Melo this summer. He's old, only a dozen or fewer teams will want a player that isn't a future building block. You are certainly correct based on last summer's market. I think Melo has improved his value. Although, missing that Laker game didn't help him. It would be great for Blazers if Melo signed for the VME.
Image
DeBlazerRiddem
Forum Mod - Blazers
Forum Mod - Blazers
Posts: 12,198
And1: 3,347
Joined: Mar 11, 2010

Re: 2020 free agent targets and draft picks 

Post#15 » by DeBlazerRiddem » Sun Feb 16, 2020 6:16 pm

Ok so I have started looking at some of the mid-to-late forwards in the draft who might be available at our pick, or if we move down in the draft. This is all off stats and youtube highlights so don't take it as an informed opinion. In no particular order:

Jaden McDaniels might be the highest ceiling forward available at our pick (assuming Avdija goes top 10). He has great size for SF at 6'10 but lacks strength and seems to have narrow shoulders and a short wingspan. He is pretty much all potential, his ability to put the ball on the floor at his size and agility gives him a high ceiling but he is really raw and his terrible scoring efficiency and high turnover rate leave me skeptical about how much he will develop.

Obi Toppin and Paul Reed are a little bit older, more well rounded combo-forwards at 6'9. Obi is a little more athletic and better offensively (passing and from 3), Reed is better defensively (great steal+block rate) and has better length. Reed is not shooting it well this year but he showed some promise last year, so its always a bit odd when a player regresses that much. I would say Reed has a little higher potential of the two (also being younger) but neither looks to top out as a star to me.

Precious Achiuwa and Isaiah Stewart are also 6'9 but younger and stronger than the previous two, though they probably are pure PF's. Both are energy players and strong rebounders with shotblocking ability. I really question the decision making of Achiuwa who commits a ton of turnovers, but he can at least shoot it a little unlike Stewart.

Jalen Smith and Reggie Perry have a little more size at 6'10. Smith lacks strength but shows a nice combo of shot blocking and 3 point shooting ability while Perry is very strong and flashes an advanced skill-set with a post game, the ability to face up and put the ball on the floor with some very good passing and floor vision but he is kind of out of current vogue as he doesn't shoot the 3 or shotblock particularly well. Both I think are more suited to small-ball centers. Aleksej Pokusevski is a rail-thin 7 footer who looks decently quick enough to play PF and also shows an intriguing skill-set, seems to be producing well accross the board in a ton of statistical categories (rebounding/passing/block/steal). Half his shots are from 3, but only at 32%. I don't know the level of competition, he might just be feasting on his size advantage against lesser players.

There are two guys with the last name Bey who are 6'7-6'8 SFs who are consistently ranked near each other and almost couldn't be more different. Tyler Bey is 6'7 and a super bouncy energy player, catches a ton of lobs and puts up good defensive stats. He doesn't take many 3's but shoots well enough that there is some promise there. Saddiq Bey is a more deliberate player, he shoots very well from 3 and uses that to open his driving game. He is strong and can get to his spots and has a couple moves to get his shot off in traffic, I like the look of his offensive game. He is not an elite athlete, but he certainly isn't bad, however the knock on him is that he averages less than a steal and a block per game in 33 minutes which is a huge red flag as he still has an athletic advantage in college.

Aaron Nesmith might be one of the best shooters in the draft and is definitely the best scorer on this list. At 6'6 he is a little smaller and looks to have a short wing-span but he is shooting over 50% on over 8 shots from 3. His assist average is low so he probably gets most of his offense by moving off-ball and his defense might not be great. He isn't a super athlete but he isn't bad.

Isaac Okoro is a pretty highly ranked SF, although I am not sure I see it. He is strong and plays with good energy. Reportedly good on defense, though his steal+block rates are not outstanding (obviously steal+block rate is not the only way to determine defense). He is not a great shooter though, he takes 2.5 per game so maybe it's something he can develop, but I am not sure where a 6'6 player who cant shoot fits into the NBA. He might be a player you have to actually watch in-game to see the potential because a lot of people are high on him.

Devin Vassell is another SG/SF that at 6'7 is pretty universally ranked in the lottery. He seems to do everything a little well. 42% from 3, good defensive stats. He has a really low usage which is kind of odd, I don't know if that is a function of his team and coaching philosophy or if he is just too passive. Decent size and length, definitely more of a catch-and-shoot player.
zzaj
Head Coach
Posts: 6,522
And1: 1,883
Joined: Jul 12, 2006
 

Re: 2020 free agent targets and draft picks 

Post#16 » by zzaj » Mon Feb 17, 2020 1:31 am

Just starting to get into the draft for this year, which is really late for me...maybe because I think it's going to be a really weak draft. ^^DBR, some of those players above are PFs at the next level. I'm starting to see Obi Toppin climb into peoples' top 10s.

I'm of the opinion that despite team needs, the Blazers should draft BPA at 14. I'd love for the Blazers to trade this 1st and somebody like Simons for a player that will really impact games. IMO, Simons is still a couple of years away, and that's too much of Lillard's prime to be wasted.

FAs? Forget about it. I learned long ago not to count on Portland landing anybody impactful, even WITH tons of capspace.
User avatar
d-train
RealGM
Posts: 19,841
And1: 857
Joined: Mar 26, 2001
   

Re: 2020 free agent targets and draft picks 

Post#17 » by d-train » Mon Feb 17, 2020 3:10 am

That's a good question for realgm's to weigh in on.

What player should Blazers trade the 1st round pick to get?

I would want a young player with future upside who has lost some of that brand new shine and is far less speculative than mid 1st round picks that rarely panout.

I would consider Lonzo Ball. He's a multiskilled talent and I was very impressed by his defense the last time we played Pelicans.
Image
Sinobas
Analyst
Posts: 3,046
And1: 269
Joined: Jun 20, 2008

Re: 2020 free agent targets and draft picks 

Post#18 » by Sinobas » Mon Feb 17, 2020 1:38 pm

I don't think we should automatically resign Anthony. It's been a fun experiment, and he's had some good games, but his TS% is 50%, which is really bad. So even though he's a talent scorer, how many points is he really getting you that you wouldn't have got otherwise?

I'd like to see us let Whiteside walk or attempt a sign and trade.

Then hope Enes Kanter opts out of his contract and bring him back. He was a great fit off the bench for us.
BlazersBroncos
Veteran
Posts: 2,987
And1: 2,095
Joined: Oct 27, 2016

Re: 2020 free agent targets and draft picks 

Post#19 » by BlazersBroncos » Mon Feb 17, 2020 3:25 pm

I really like Jalen Smith. 6'10, 225lbs, NBA ready body posting elite defensive measurables and hitting 40% of his 3's at a 1-2.6 clip. Looks like a great backup at PF and C. I don't want to reach on a SF. The only plug and play guy at SF is Deni and IMO he goes earlier than expected.

I would love to use Simons in a package for a SF and then draft Killian Hayes or Theo Maledon to be the long term backup combo guard. Both are much more natural points than Anfernee.

My top FA target is DeMar DeRozan. Let everyone walk, cut Ariza and use the cap space on DeRozan. Not ideal, but easily the top realistic option.
zzaj
Head Coach
Posts: 6,522
And1: 1,883
Joined: Jul 12, 2006
 

Re: 2020 free agent targets and draft picks 

Post#20 » by zzaj » Mon Feb 17, 2020 3:39 pm

BlazersBroncos wrote:I really like Jalen Smith. 6'10, 225lbs, NBA ready body posting elite defensive measurables and hitting 40% of his 3's at a 1-2.6 clip. Looks like a great backup at PF and C. I don't want to reach on a SF. The only plug and play guy at SF is Deni and IMO he goes earlier than expected.

I would love to use Simons in a package for a SF and then draft Killian Hayes or Theo Maledon to be the long term backup combo guard. Both are much more natural points than Anfernee.

My top FA target is DeMar DeRozan. Let everyone walk, cut Ariza and use the cap space on DeRozan. Not ideal, but easily the top realistic option.


We're thinking almost exactly alike, BlazersBroncos...I'm high on Jalen Smith, Hayes and Maledon right now as well.

I like Ariza on the team, and feel like he brings/reinforces an intensity and winning culture that was lacking before--it'd be a shame to see him go for the price. But DeRozan and Lillard are buddies. Lillard has talked about playing with him before. There are some obvious holes in his game, but he brings other things like facilitating from the SF position that the Blazers haven't had since Batum. A four of // Lillard/CJ/DeRozan/Nurkic // I can get behind moving forward. Even if it means a big tax bill for JA and very little roster movement for many years.

Return to Portland Trail Blazers