2020 free agent targets and draft picks

[BlazersBroncos]

We're thinking almost exactly alike, BlazersBroncos...I'm high on Jalen Smith, Hayes and Maledon right now as well.

I like Ariza on the team, and feel like he brings/reinforces an intensity and winning culture that was lacking before--it'd be a shame to see him go for the price. But DeRozan and Lillard are buddies. Lillard has talked about playing with him before. There are some obvious holes in his game, but he brings other things like facilitating from the SF position that the Blazers haven't had since Batum. A four of // Lillard/CJ/DeRozan/Nurkic // I can get behind moving forward. Even if it means a big tax bill for JA and very little roster movement for many years.

Great minds!

DeRozan as a facilitator is very appealing to me. Taking the ball out of CJ's hands and using him as a catch and shoot guy would improve the team tremendously. I keep spouting this, but CJ is the best catch / shoot guy in the league this year. And he is always in elite company year over year as a catch and shooter. DeRozan as the 2nd ballhandler means CJ is getting more open looks, which means this team is simply much better.

My ideal semi realistic offseason right now is: Let everyone walk (Including Ariza unfortunately), use the 17-18M cap space on DeRozan, use the TPE on Ed Davis, 1st rounder on Jalen Smith, 2nd rounder on Payton Pritchard, Room MLE on Mo Harkless


G - Damian Lillard / Anferne Simons / Payton Pritchard
G - CJ McCollum / Gary Trent Jr / Anferne Simons
F - DeMar DeRozan / Rodney Hood / Nassir Little
F - Zach Collins / Mo Harkless / Jalen Smith
C - Jusuf Nurkic / Zach Collins / Ed Davis

[d-train]

I'd like to see us let Whiteside walk or attempt a sign and trade.

Then hope Enes Kanter opts out of his contract and bring him back. He was a great fit off the bench for us.

Kanter will opt-out of his contract. But, he chose Celtics over Blazers last year when it made more sense for him to choose Blazers. This time it makes more sense for him to choose Celtics, so it's even more likely he will choose Celtics again. Plus, we have an bird exception to sign Whiteside, which we don't have to sign Kanter.

On the fit issue, yes, Kanter fit better last year and would have after the injuries this year. However, Collins in combination with Whiteside would have made Whiteside fit better. The 2 biggest problems with Whiteside are his lack of high post playmaking and lack of range to show against high pick-n-rolls. Collins would have solved both of these problems and we would have had mostly just the benefits of having Whiteside.

[d-train]

My top FA target is DeMar DeRozan. Let everyone walk, cut Ariza and use the cap space on DeRozan. Not ideal, but easily the top realistic option.

You need to check the math. If we renounce everything (Whiteside, Ariza, & others) except our 1st round pick and Hezonja opts out, we only have $10-11.1M cap room. This isn't going to get you DeRozen. Don't forget to add $1.8M to dead money after waiving Ariza and $2.9M for 3 roster holds. Also, don't forget to adjust the projected cap down to $114-115M for the latest projections.

We are going to keep Ariza and try to keep Whiteside (or, sign-and-trade him), because this is what makes the most sense. Then, we have $9.9M MLE, $3.9M BAE, and $7M TPE to improve the roster. It's a no-brainer.

[No-Man]

Ok so I have started looking at some of the mid-to-late forwards in the draft who might be available at our pick, or if we move down in the draft. This is all off stats and youtube highlights so don't take it as an informed opinion. In no particular order:

Jaden McDaniels might be the highest ceiling forward available at our pick (assuming Avdija goes top 10). He has great size for SF at 6'10 but lacks strength and seems to have narrow shoulders and a short wingspan. He is pretty much all potential, his ability to put the ball on the floor at his size and agility gives him a high ceiling but he is really raw and his terrible scoring efficiency and high turnover rate leave me skeptical about how much he will develop.

Obi Toppin and Paul Reed are a little bit older, more well rounded combo-forwards at 6'9. Obi is a little more athletic and better offensively (passing and from 3), Reed is better defensively (great steal+block rate) and has better length. Reed is not shooting it well this year but he showed some promise last year, so its always a bit odd when a player regresses that much. I would say Reed has a little higher potential of the two (also being younger) but neither looks to top out as a star to me.

Precious Achiuwa and Isaiah Stewart are also 6'9 but younger and stronger than the previous two, though they probably are pure PF's. Both are energy players and strong rebounders with shotblocking ability. I really question the decision making of Achiuwa who commits a ton of turnovers, but he can at least shoot it a little unlike Stewart.

Jalen Smith and Reggie Perry have a little more size at 6'10. Smith lacks strength but shows a nice combo of shot blocking and 3 point shooting ability while Perry is very strong and flashes an advanced skill-set with a post game, the ability to face up and put the ball on the floor with some very good passing and floor vision but he is kind of out of current vogue as he doesn't shoot the 3 or shotblock particularly well. Both I think are more suited to small-ball centers. Aleksej Pokusevski is a rail-thin 7 footer who looks decently quick enough to play PF and also shows an intriguing skill-set, seems to be producing well accross the board in a ton of statistical categories (rebounding/passing/block/steal). Half his shots are from 3, but only at 32%. I don't know the level of competition, he might just be feasting on his size advantage against lesser players.

There are two guys with the last name Bey who are 6'7-6'8 SFs who are consistently ranked near each other and almost couldn't be more different. Tyler Bey is 6'7 and a super bouncy energy player, catches a ton of lobs and puts up good defensive stats. He doesn't take many 3's but shoots well enough that there is some promise there. Saddiq Bey is a more deliberate player, he shoots very well from 3 and uses that to open his driving game. He is strong and can get to his spots and has a couple moves to get his shot off in traffic, I like the look of his offensive game. He is not an elite athlete, but he certainly isn't bad, however the knock on him is that he averages less than a steal and a block per game in 33 minutes which is a huge red flag as he still has an athletic advantage in college.

Aaron Nesmith might be one of the best shooters in the draft and is definitely the best scorer on this list. At 6'6 he is a little smaller and looks to have a short wing-span but he is shooting over 50% on over 8 shots from 3. His assist average is low so he probably gets most of his offense by moving off-ball and his defense might not be great. He isn't a super athlete but he isn't bad.

Isaac Okoro is a pretty highly ranked SF, although I am not sure I see it. He is strong and plays with good energy. Reportedly good on defense, though his steal+block rates are not outstanding (obviously steal+block rate is not the only way to determine defense). He is not a great shooter though, he takes 2.5 per game so maybe it's something he can develop, but I am not sure where a 6'6 player who cant shoot fits into the NBA. He might be a player you have to actually watch in-game to see the potential because a lot of people are high on him.

Devin Vassell is another SG/SF that at 6'7 is pretty universally ranked in the lottery. He seems to do everything a little well. 42% from 3, good defensive stats. He has a really low usage which is kind of odd, I don't know if that is a function of his team and coaching philosophy or if he is just too passive. Decent size and length, definitely more of a catch-and-shoot player.

McDaniels is a long-term project, has some tools and does a bit of the dirty work but is a trainwreck on offense at the moment

Toppin, Reed, Smith, Achiuwa, Perry and Stewart are all PF or straight up Centers, none of them can play SF

[No-Man]

In the Draft I'd go with Patrick Williams, likely available, best player available at your likely pick and he fits a need, would aim for best player available in the 2nd, maybe a stash, or maybe use it to dump Hood's dead money for next year in Draft night if someone has a TPE

I'd not pay more than the minimum for Melo, doubt you have much competence for him, I'd let Whiteside walk, cut Hezonja, cut Ariza (still will try to retain him using BR or BAE).

As for FA I'd target

with the MLE

Joe Harris
Davis Bertans
Jae Crowder
Marcus Morris
De'Anthony Melton
Juancho Hernangómez
Derrick Jones Jr.
Christian Wood

with the BAE

DeAndre' Bembry
Dwayne Bacon
Chris Boucher
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson
Pat Connaughton
Andre Roberson
Allonzo Trier
Tremont Waters
Trevor Ariza
Ian Mahinmi
Langston Galloway
Denzel Valentine
Torrey Craig
Courtney Lee

Ideal is probably something like;

Lillard-Simons-Napier or Neto
McCollum-Connaughton-Trent
Harris-Ariza-Williams
Collins-Anthony-Little
Nurkic-Hernagómez-Giles or Maker

Plus whoever you keep as two-way contracts

[d-train]

cut Ariza (still will try to retain him using BR or BAE).

There is no bird rights if we waive him. I doubt Ariza will re-sign for BAE. He has a history of going to the money. I suspect Blazers will pay him $12.8M, which is unfortunate because it's an overpay, IMO.

[No-Man]

lol Ariza aint getting more than the BAE this summer, he has been really meh and is clearly aging, he may get $5M tops

I thought you could cut him and retain his BRY but you are right you can't, it only applies if you decline a Team option, but non if you cut a non guaranteed salary, my bad

[d-train]

lol Ariza aint getting more than the BAE this summer, he has been really meh and is clearly aging, he may get $5M tops

I thought you could cut him and retain his BRY but you are right you can't, it only applies if you decline a Team option, but non if you cut a non guaranteed salary, my bad

Your second sentence is exactly right, bird rights are maintained if a team or player option is declined.

Which raises the question, why was the contract structured this way? Who is benefitting by structuring the deal with a team option that isn't called a team option, and because it isn't called a team option, both the team and player has fewer options? The only thing I can think of is a team option was the offer to Ariza. Ariza wanted no option on the 2nd year, but Kings wouldn't agree. Ariza decided bird rights were of no value to him, so he wanted a deal that didn't convey bird rights to his team. It's unusual because Ariza would have to waive his benefits to take away his team's benefits. It's a look into Ariza's mind.

It would be potentially a benefit to Ariza if the Blazers decide to waive him, that Blazers instead would just decline an option to guarantee Ariza's salary. This would give Ariza the benefit of having 1 NBA team that could re-sign him with a "bird rights exception." This is significant because teams have more money than they do resources to sign players. The CBA restricts teams options to sign players by not permitting them to spend money unless they have a thing called an "exception." Teams don't run out of money. They run out of exceptions as defined by the CBA. Every free agent player would be worth more money and could get more money from a team if not for restrictions placed by the CBA.

[DeBlazerRiddem]

Ok so I have started looking at some of the mid-to-late forwards in the draft who might be available at our pick, or if we move down in the draft. This is all off stats and youtube highlights so don't take it as an informed opinion. In no particular order:

Jaden McDaniels might be the highest ceiling forward available at our pick (assuming Avdija goes top 10). He has great size for SF at 6'10 but lacks strength and seems to have narrow shoulders and a short wingspan. He is pretty much all potential, his ability to put the ball on the floor at his size and agility gives him a high ceiling but he is really raw and his terrible scoring efficiency and high turnover rate leave me skeptical about how much he will develop.

Obi Toppin and Paul Reed are a little bit older, more well rounded combo-forwards at 6'9. Obi is a little more athletic and better offensively (passing and from 3), Reed is better defensively (great steal+block rate) and has better length. Reed is not shooting it well this year but he showed some promise last year, so its always a bit odd when a player regresses that much. I would say Reed has a little higher potential of the two (also being younger) but neither looks to top out as a star to me.

Precious Achiuwa and Isaiah Stewart are also 6'9 but younger and stronger than the previous two, though they probably are pure PF's. Both are energy players and strong rebounders with shotblocking ability. I really question the decision making of Achiuwa who commits a ton of turnovers, but he can at least shoot it a little unlike Stewart.

Jalen Smith and Reggie Perry have a little more size at 6'10. Smith lacks strength but shows a nice combo of shot blocking and 3 point shooting ability while Perry is very strong and flashes an advanced skill-set with a post game, the ability to face up and put the ball on the floor with some very good passing and floor vision but he is kind of out of current vogue as he doesn't shoot the 3 or shotblock particularly well. Both I think are more suited to small-ball centers. Aleksej Pokusevski is a rail-thin 7 footer who looks decently quick enough to play PF and also shows an intriguing skill-set, seems to be producing well accross the board in a ton of statistical categories (rebounding/passing/block/steal). Half his shots are from 3, but only at 32%. I don't know the level of competition, he might just be feasting on his size advantage against lesser players.

There are two guys with the last name Bey who are 6'7-6'8 SFs who are consistently ranked near each other and almost couldn't be more different. Tyler Bey is 6'7 and a super bouncy energy player, catches a ton of lobs and puts up good defensive stats. He doesn't take many 3's but shoots well enough that there is some promise there. Saddiq Bey is a more deliberate player, he shoots very well from 3 and uses that to open his driving game. He is strong and can get to his spots and has a couple moves to get his shot off in traffic, I like the look of his offensive game. He is not an elite athlete, but he certainly isn't bad, however the knock on him is that he averages less than a steal and a block per game in 33 minutes which is a huge red flag as he still has an athletic advantage in college.

Aaron Nesmith might be one of the best shooters in the draft and is definitely the best scorer on this list. At 6'6 he is a little smaller and looks to have a short wing-span but he is shooting over 50% on over 8 shots from 3. His assist average is low so he probably gets most of his offense by moving off-ball and his defense might not be great. He isn't a super athlete but he isn't bad.

Isaac Okoro is a pretty highly ranked SF, although I am not sure I see it. He is strong and plays with good energy. Reportedly good on defense, though his steal+block rates are not outstanding (obviously steal+block rate is not the only way to determine defense). He is not a great shooter though, he takes 2.5 per game so maybe it's something he can develop, but I am not sure where a 6'6 player who cant shoot fits into the NBA. He might be a player you have to actually watch in-game to see the potential because a lot of people are high on him.

Devin Vassell is another SG/SF that at 6'7 is pretty universally ranked in the lottery. He seems to do everything a little well. 42% from 3, good defensive stats. He has a really low usage which is kind of odd, I don't know if that is a function of his team and coaching philosophy or if he is just too passive. Decent size and length, definitely more of a catch-and-shoot player.

McDaniels is a long-term project, has some tools and does a bit of the dirty work but is a trainwreck on offense at the moment

Toppin, Reed, Smith, Achiuwa, Perry and Stewart are all PF or straight up Centers, none of them can play SF

Toppin and Reed I called combo forwards because they look like tweeners, and not in a good way as they will lack size against many NBA PFs but as you said are not a good at SF either - not fast or skilled enough. Agree with you on the others.

[No-Man]

Neither Toppin nor Reed lack size, they should be able to play some Center really

[HoopsFanAZ]

Unless the Blazers crater enough to move higher than 10 ... I'm going with a potential unicorn whose skills across the board are developing but show promise at both ends ... this is my "Nic Batum Pick" as he fit that description in his draft ...

Aleksej Pokusevski.

There, I'm on record.

[zzaj]

Unless the Blazers crater enough to move higher than 10 ... I'm going with a potential unicorn whose skills across the board are developing but show promise at both ends ... this is my "Nic Batum Pick" as he fit that description in his draft ...

Aleksej Pokusevski.

There, I'm on record.

I like Aleksej too, although I don't believe he'll be able to defend in space at an NBA level.

For those that are curious for a little closer look:

https://www.thestepien.com/2019/05/06/2020-international-guide-curious-case-aleksej-pokusevski/

[d-train]

Unless the Blazers crater enough to move higher than 10 ... I'm going with a potential unicorn whose skills across the board are developing but show promise at both ends ... this is my "Nic Batum Pick" as he fit that description in his draft ...

Aleksej Pokusevski.

There, I'm on record.

I like Aleksej too, although I don't believe he'll be able to defend in space at an NBA level.

For those that are curious for a little closer look:

https://www.thestepien.com/2019/05/06/2020-international-guide-curious-case-aleksej-pokusevski/

He looks somewhere between undrafted and the 2nd round to me. I lean towards undrafted.

[Roy The Natural]

Unless the Blazers crater enough to move higher than 10 ... I'm going with a potential unicorn whose skills across the board are developing but show promise at both ends ... this is my "Nic Batum Pick" as he fit that description in his draft ...

Aleksej Pokusevski.

There, I'm on record.

I like Aleksej too, although I don't believe he'll be able to defend in space at an NBA level.

For those that are curious for a little closer look:

https://www.thestepien.com/2019/05/06/2020-international-guide-curious-case-aleksej-pokusevski/

He looks somewhere between undrafted and the 2nd round to me. I lean towards undrafted.

I don't agree with you on much. But yea... he looks awful. I have no idea why anyone would want to waste more than a second on him. Looks slow as hell, and very limited athletically. No thanks.


I think Josh Green is worth a good look. NBA body. Really good defender. Jumper isn't there, but his form looks workable. I don't see any reason why he shouldn't be able to speed up and hone in his jumper. It doesn't look broken, and actually looks relatively smooth.

Obi Toppen is also a good bet to be a solid player. His defensive awareness worries me. But he should have a floor as a solid offensive bench 4. With upside to be a starter if things work out for him.

[d-train]

I like Aleksej too, although I don't believe he'll be able to defend in space at an NBA level.

For those that are curious for a little closer look:

https://www.thestepien.com/2019/05/06/2020-international-guide-curious-case-aleksej-pokusevski/

He looks somewhere between undrafted and the 2nd round to me. I lean towards undrafted.

I don't agree with you on much. But yea... he looks awful. I have no idea why anyone would want to waste more than a second on him. Looks slow as hell, and very limited athletically. No thanks.


I think Josh Green is worth a good look. NBA body. Really good defender. Jumper isn't there, but his form looks workable. I don't see any reason why he shouldn't be able to speed up and hone in his jumper. It doesn't look broken, and actually looks relatively smooth.

Obi Toppen is also a good bet to be a solid player. His defensive awareness worries me. But he should have a floor as a solid offensive bench 4. With upside to be a starter if things work out for him.

If someone rolls the dice on him, it would be as a niche player. It looks like he has handles. Maybe can be a designated shot maker if he shoots it well enough. I don't see how you can put him in an NBA game unless it's against a team with a PrissyBella level offensive player you can hide his defense against.

[BlazersBroncos]

I like the idea of continuing to target high potential guys (Simons and Little clearly fit this mold), and Aleksej may have as much potential as anyone in this draft. But he isn't like KP where he will succeed regardless of landing spot, he will require a lot of patience and development. He is much closer to Thon Maker as a prospect, tons of potential but diminutive not-NBA-ready frame that may always relegate him to a twig based on narrow shoulder base.

But Aleksej has some special traits for a seven footer. His handle is unbelievable, much better than guys like Bender, Thon, KP at the same age. And his court vision is special. He can make NBA 3's, and not just catch / shoot ones. But he has a huge issue here in that his form makes him jump forward rather than up, which will be a huge issue in the NBA. He also may not pass the athletic minimum, but I think his total inability to absorb contact and general proclivity to play like a guard makes him look more grounded than he actually is.

Regardless, he is a high risk / reward guy in the Maker mold. I like a lot about his game, but he is a huge risk. I think he is an NBA talent, basically Thon with much better natural feel for the game. I want to know if he is Bender soft or a dog out there, that will make a big difference. End of the day I don't think I would bet much on him being better than a Anzjs Pasecniks (Who PDX was very interested in) but his handle and vision give him a dimension that most other mobile high potential twig prospects just don't have.

On another note, if we move on from Whiteside I wonder if PHX would trade Kaminsky for the TPE and our 2nd rounder. He has been good for a backup center this year and using the TPE means we still retain MLE and BAE. Its the type of buy low move that NO loves to make. Frank isn't perfect but he is a great passer (2.2apg in 22mpg for a center is huge), passable floor spreader (35% 3 on decent volume) and a good culture fit as well. Just don't expect Whiteside blocks or rebounds.

Second side note, I am starting to like Deni as a prospect enough to think adding Simmons or Little to our FRP in a trade up for him wouldn't be nuts. He looks NBA ready and is putting up great stats in the 2nd best league on the globe. His 3 PT stroke looks great and NBA translatable (High release, holds his form and flips his wrist a lot. Sorta like a Doncic form and we know he can get his off) and he has the hustle that you need, only way a guy his age even with talent can get minutes in the Euroleague is by doing all the little things and dirty work. Just a rock solid prospect. I think he can be the Detlef of this generation, and that's an elite 4th option.

[JasonStern]

wouldn't mind using our 2nd round pick on a Malachi Flynn/Payton Pritchard/Tre Jones.

> THERE ARE ONLY 15 ROSTER SPOTS, JASON. QUIT TRYING TO WASTE ONE ADDING A SECOND POINT GUARD.

/sigh

[BlazersBroncos]

wouldn't mind using our 2nd round pick on a Malachi Flynn/Payton Pritchard/Tre Jones.

Ugh, we really never are getting a backup PG are we.

Pritchard is very interesting, moreso than Flynn or Jones IMO. He plays such a pesky style, reminds me of Delladevova and McConnell. More so the latter, who is huge in Indiana running the 2nd unit. A better 3PT shooting McConnell is an ideal 15mpg backup PG.

But we will take a scorer at SG or SF instead, develop him for 2-3 years then let him walk as we get even a slight excitement from him.

[zzaj]

The pessimistic tone on this thread is confirming my own biases, and currently making me so happy!

This might be an interesting draft year. I can see an eventuality of Olshey going for more sure-thing/low ceiling prospects (a la Gary Trent) in order to have a productive bench once almost 50% of the team salary starts going to 3 players. At some point he's going to have to try to start building around Lillard's prime, no?

[JasonStern]

Pritchard is very interesting, moreso than Flynn or Jones IMO.

as a Ducks fan, I obviously want this. but all three have their strengths and weaknesses. none really scream star power, but imagine having a serviceable backup point guard capable of moving the ball on offense while Dame is on the bench.

the big flaw with backup point guard Steve Blake was starting point guard Steve Blake.