2020 free agent targets and draft picks

Norm2953 · Post #41 » by **Norm2953** » Sun Feb 23, 2020 4:25 am

I see a lot of mock drafts have Portland keeping their second round pick which presumably it was a heavily
protected second round pick.

This is not supposed to be a good draft but might be somewhat deep and I could see Portland going BPA
with both picks

Goldbum · Post #42 » by **Goldbum** » Sun Feb 23, 2020 1:09 pm

I wouldn't mind a flier on Thon Maker who I know NO liked in the draft. His brother is also a likely mistake second round pick.

Post #43 » by **DaVoiceMaster** » Tue Feb 25, 2020 5:03 pm

Just draft Ionescu and be done with the PG discussion!!!

Sinobas · Post #44 » by **Sinobas** » Wed Feb 26, 2020 1:43 am

The blazers are going to end up in one of the worst spots, just outside of the playoffs, but a low lottery team in a weak draft. Meanwhile the Warriors may well get the #1 overall..... :crazy:

Post #45 » by **DaVoiceMaster** » Wed Feb 26, 2020 9:23 pm

I'm actually ready for the season to be done given the number of injuries and current roster make up. I would not rush Lillard back and I would start cutting way back on CJ, Ariza, Melo, and Whiteside's minutes. I would not play any of them more than 25 mpg. When Lillard comes back, I would limit his minutes, as well and I would not worry about rushing Nurkic or Collins back. Nurk will be back, but he should only play maybe 15 mpg and Collins should not come back until next season now. Be done already!!! I still root for them to win every game, even though I want them to lose in the grand scheme of things.

HoopsFanAZ · Post #46 » by **HoopsFanAZ** » Sat Feb 29, 2020 5:11 pm

The next 5 games against sub .500. teams will set up the remainder of the season. 5-0 or 4-1 is a playoff push. Worst results are 3-2 and 2-3. I’m hoping for good health, lots of losses to get a more significant draftee, and player development for next season’s decisions.

whatchaknow · Post #47 » by **whatchaknow** » Sun Mar 1, 2020 5:02 am

Top 10 pick isn’t out of the question. Might be more likely than a playoff berth the quality they’re playing

Wizenheimer · Post #48 » by **Wizenheimer** » Sun Mar 1, 2020 5:56 am

whatchaknow wrote:Top 10 pick isn’t out of the question. Might be more likely than a playoff berth the quality they’re playing

after tonight's game against the Hawks Portland is 12th. Lottery-wise, the best they could do is probably 9th

* if they finish 12th, they have a 7.2% chance at a top-4 pick
* if they finish 11th, they have a 9.4% chance at a top-4 pick
* if they finish 10th, they have a 13.9% chance at a top-4 pick
* if they finish 9th, they have a 20.2% chance at a top-4 pick

But Dame will be coming back and he'll be good enough to keep them out of 9th in the lottery. Might still make the playoffs but the margin of error is getting smaller and smaller

the worst outcome, IMO, is 8th seed, the 18th pick, and getting swept in the first round. And that all could happen

d-train · Post #49 » by **d-train** » Sun Mar 1, 2020 7:11 am

8th seed is the best outcome IMO. I don't really care where we draft. How well we can do in the playoffs will depend on our health. I believe we can do very well in the playoffs with Lillard, CJ, Nurkic, Collins, Melo, Ariza, Whiteside, Simons, and Trent.

The worst outcome is a team that gives up.

d-train · Post #50 » by **d-train** » Sun Mar 1, 2020 7:30 am

Did anyone notice Anthony Tolliver bought out his contract with Kings? Tolliver is shopping for a playoff team. What's the deadline? I believe he has a day or 2 to find a team. I don't know but I hope he didn't give up a lot of his paycheck.

Edit: March 1 is the deadline, so he has 1 day. I don't even know if a team has an open roster spot.

Post #51 » by **DaVoiceMaster** » Sun Mar 1, 2020 7:35 am

I hope Lillard sits out the next 5 games.

Post #52 » by **DaVoiceMaster** » Sun Mar 1, 2020 7:55 am

Financial question...

If the Blazers pick up Ariza's option and Hhod/Hezonja pick up their options, can the Blazers resign Whiteside to a contract somewhere between $8-$12 million and Melo for somewhere around the Vet's minimum? Add a draft pick or two. Perhaps they can pick up a veteran PG for the minimum, as well. Are they under the luxury tax with that roster? It's not a bad lineup.

PG Lillard/Simons/Vet
SG McCollum/Trent Jr
Ariza/Hood/Little
Collins/Anthony
Nurkic/Whiteside

Plus a draft pick or two.

Norm2953 · Post #53 » by **Norm2953** » Sun Mar 1, 2020 7:57 am

This year is setting up like 2013 for as I recall, Portland basically lost their last 10 games in a row
in order to draft at 10 and pick CJ. Portland was sitting in good shape that year for there was
talk if CJ was gone, their choice would either be Steven Adams or the Greek Freak.

End of season tanking produces strange situations for I would wonder if Portland would announce
Dame's return from a groin pull would be delayed for Steph Curry's return seems to be moving from
March 1 to sometime later in March.

d-train · Post #54 » by **d-train** » Sun Mar 1, 2020 8:13 am

DaVoiceMaster wrote:Financial question...

If the Blazers pick up Ariza's option and Hhod/Hezonja pick up their options, can the Blazers resign Whiteside to a contract somewhere between $8-$12 million and Melo for somewhere around the Vet's minimum? Add a draft pick or two. Perhaps they can pick up a veteran PG for the minimum, as well. Are they under the luxury tax with that roster? It's not a bad lineup.

PG Lillard/Simons/Vet
SG McCollum/Trent Jr
Ariza/Hood/Little
Collins/Anthony
Nurkic/Whiteside

Plus a draft pick or two.

Yes, and we would have about $17M room under the tax. Also, we would have $9.9M MLE, $3.9M BAE, and $7M TPE.

Edit: I doubt Hezonja is going to pick up his option. If he doesn't, we have $19M room under tax.

d-train · Post #55 » by **d-train** » Sun Mar 1, 2020 8:17 am

Norm2953 wrote:This year is setting up like 2013 for as I recall, Portland basically lost their last 10 games in a row
in order to draft at 10 and pick CJ. Portland was sitting in good shape that year for there was
talk if CJ was gone, their choice would either be Steven Adams or the Greek Freak.

End of season tanking produces strange situations for I would wonder if Portland would announce
Dame's return from a groin pull would be delayed for Steph Curry's return seems to be moving from
March 1 to sometime later in March.

I don't remember anyone talking about drafting CJ. I do remember he was a very unpopular pick because nobody wanted a guard. I also don't remember anyone talking about the Greek Freak at #10. I recall Bucks getting criticism for their pick.

d-train · Post #56 » by **d-train** » Sun Mar 1, 2020 8:36 am

DaVoiceMaster wrote:Financial question...

If the Blazers pick up Ariza's option and Hhod/Hezonja pick up their options, can the Blazers resign Whiteside to a contract somewhere between $8-$12 million and Melo for somewhere around the Vet's minimum? Add a draft pick or two. Perhaps they can pick up a veteran PG for the minimum, as well. Are they under the luxury tax with that roster? It's not a bad lineup.

PG Lillard/Simons/Vet
SG McCollum/Trent Jr
Ariza/Hood/Little
Collins/Anthony
Nurkic/Whiteside

Plus a draft pick or two.

Picking up the guarantee on Ariza's contract is not automatic. I can see Blazers replacing Ariza for less than the $11M they can save.

d-train · Post #57 » by **d-train** » Sun Mar 1, 2020 8:53 am

What about Swanigan on a minimum contract? I don't believe we will have a roster spot unless Blazers keep 15 contracts. Swanigan would be good on a minimum contract if we have roster room.

Goldbum · Post #58 » by **Goldbum** » Sun Mar 1, 2020 4:25 pm

I actually thought the Greek freak was Batum 2.0 and CJ was a homeless mans Lillard... I really really wanted Gobert and was pissed that we traded up for AC instead of Rudy

Wizenheimer · Post #59 » by **Wizenheimer** » Sun Mar 1, 2020 6:21 pm

DaVoiceMaster wrote:Financial question...

If the Blazers pick up Ariza's option and Hhod/Hezonja pick up their options, can the Blazers resign Whiteside to a contract somewhere between $8-$12 million and Melo for somewhere around the Vet's minimum? Add a draft pick or two. Perhaps they can pick up a veteran PG for the minimum, as well. Are they under the luxury tax with that roster? It's not a bad lineup.

PG Lillard/Simons/Vet
SG McCollum/Trent Jr
Ariza/Hood/Little
Collins/Anthony
Nurkic/Whiteside

Plus a draft pick or two.

Damian Lillard $31,626,953
CJ McCollum $29,354,152
Trevor Ariza $12,800,000
Jusuf Nurkić $12,000,000
Rodney Hood $6,003,900
Zach Collins $5,406,255
Anfernee Simons $2,252,040
Nassir Little $2,210,640
Mario Hezonja $1,882,867
Gary Trent $1,663,861
[Andrew Nicholson] $2,844,429
[Anderson Varejão] $1,913,345

$109,958,442

so basically, 110M for 10 players with the tax line falling in the 139-140M range; and the apron in the 145-146M range

add the 1st round pick and it's 113M for 11 players. That could jump another 2-3M if Portland miraculously lands a top-4 pick in the lottery

add Whiteside at 10M+/- and it's 123M for 12 players.

at this point, keep in mind that Portland has their 2nd round pick. They can delay adding the player to the payroll is they have moves that require an extra million or so in margin, but if the goal is to stay under the tax line (and I believe those are the instructions from Seattle), you have to account for another 900K in salary. On the other hand, the Blazers have Simons, Trent, & Little; and they would have their 1st round pick. That's 4 very young players and there's probably a limit on how many they carry

anyway, with Whiteside, added, Portland would have around 14-17M in margin

then there are the exceptions they have available, MLE, BAE, TPE.

if they use their full MLE, they would be hard-capped at the apron. Same thing if they use their BAE. But if they are determined to stay under the tax line, being hard-capped is not really a burden

the full MLE would be around 9.8M. The BAE is about 3.8M. Their TPE is about 7.1M. Using all three would bust over the tax line. And keep in mind the free agent class this summer is not very impressive, and it will be a buyer's market because few teams have cap-space

for instance, say Portland was looking at waiving Ariza to cut cost. The UFA free agent class for SF's is:

Danilo Gallinari
Evan Turner
Solomon Hill
Maurice Harkless
Davis Bertans
Jae Crowder
Josh Jackson
Stanley Johnson
Thabo Sefolosha
Jared Dudley
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson
Derrick Jones Jr.
DeMarre Carroll
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist

Gallo is the most attractive name there, but he's more of a PF than a SF. He doesn't have the lateral mobility to defend most SF's. He'd only make sense if Portland kept Ariza, and to me, that's maybe the best result of using their full-MLE. And Gallo is a lot better than Melo. That would leave Portland with around 6-10M in margin under the tax line and they'd have 13 players. I'd expect Gallo would expect more money, but it's going to be a tight market, and he has an extensive injury history (a big reason why the Blazers may pass). Davis Bertans and Jae Crowder are possibilities here

the problem with re-signing Whiteside is finding minutes for Nurk, Hassan, and Zach. Zach played 54% of his minutes at C last season. That's the way the Blazers went to match other team's small ball lineups. That's the way Atlanta played last night and it burned Portland because Whiteside couldn't defend the stretch PF's Atlanta played at C. Nurkic would have had the same problem. In other words, if there's only on average about 36 minutes a game for a traditional C on the floor, that's going to be a conflict between Nurkic and Whiteside. Portland shouldn't sign Whiteside to more than a 1 year deal, or a 2 year deal with a team option on the 2nd year. On the other hand, the Blazers may be pretty concerned about Nurkic staying healthy; he's missed 141 games over the last 5 seasons...and counting. That's a lot; that's about 30 games a year, and 3 serious leg injuries

honestly, the UFA class of PF's is more intriguing:

Paul Millsap
Serge Ibaka
Derrick Favors
Marcus Morris
Montrezl Harrell
Juan Hernangomez
Patrick Patterson
Noah Vonleh
Markieff Morris
Christian Wood
Marvin Williams

but we know Olshey well enough to think he he's not likely to add anybody who could really compete with Zach for PF minutes

Post #60 » by **DeBlazerRiddem** » Mon Mar 2, 2020 10:33 pm

d-train wrote:
Norm2953 wrote:This year is setting up like 2013 for as I recall, Portland basically lost their last 10 games in a row
in order to draft at 10 and pick CJ. Portland was sitting in good shape that year for there was
talk if CJ was gone, their choice would either be Steven Adams or the Greek Freak.

End of season tanking produces strange situations for I would wonder if Portland would announce
Dame's return from a groin pull would be delayed for Steph Curry's return seems to be moving from
March 1 to sometime later in March.

I don't remember anyone talking about drafting CJ. I do remember he was a very unpopular pick because nobody wanted a guard. I also don't remember anyone talking about the Greek Freak at #10. I recall Bucks getting criticism for their pick.

I actually did a mock draft that year. It was pretty terrible so don't judge me but I actually had CJ and Giannis correct (about the only thing I did right), so you cant say no one was calling those picks.

Spoiler:

This mock draft roundup shows CJ generally around our pick, although it absolutely supports your claim that Giannis was considered a reach at 15:

https://www.sbnation.com/nba/2013/5/22/4355884/nba-mock-draft-2013-nerlens-noel-cavaliers