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NBA suspending games after tonight - CV19

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Renegade
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Re: NBA suspending games after tonight - CV19 

Post#21 » by Renegade » Mon Mar 16, 2020 1:57 pm

Norm2953 wrote:come back in September when things should be better.
Current estimates of 3-6 months seems set up well for a regular start of the 2020-21 season.


Not sure what the 3-6 months represent, but an optimistic perspective is good. However a realistic outlook is also needed. The quotes I have seen coming out of the CDC is the best case scenario is vaccine created, produced in adequate volumes, and distribution method implemented just for thus U.S. will occur no earlier than the middle of 2021.
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Re: NBA suspending games after tonight - CV19 

Post#22 » by d-train » Mon Mar 16, 2020 5:57 pm

Renegade wrote:
Norm2953 wrote:come back in September when things should be better.
Current estimates of 3-6 months seems set up well for a regular start of the 2020-21 season.


Not sure what the 3-6 months represent, but an optimistic perspective is good. However a realistic outlook is also needed. The quotes I have seen coming out of the CDC is the best case scenario is vaccine created, produced in adequate volumes, and distribution method implemented just for thus U.S. will occur no earlier than the middle of 2021.

Controlling the spread of the China virus doesn't depend on a vaccine. Containment is how it will be stopped. Vaccine development is a separate avenue of control. This China virus spreads primarily through respiratory droplets. Just like other similar viruses its spread will slow when the weather warms causing respiratory droplets to more quickly evaporate making conditions for transmission less likely. The China virus can also be transmitted from infected surfaces but it doesn't live long on surfaces and this type of transmission isn't a big percentage of how the virus is spread.

Scientists calculate transmissibility of viruses by assigning them an R0 rating. The China virus has an R0 of 2.2, meaning a single infected person will infect about 2.2 others, on average. The flu has an R0 of 1.3. The mortality rate of the China virus is also higher than the flu. The China virus mortality rate is 2.3% according to a Feb 18, report by the China CDC Weekly. The flu mortality rate is .1%.
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Re: NBA suspending games after tonight - CV19 

Post#23 » by Renegade » Mon Mar 16, 2020 6:06 pm

d-train wrote:
Renegade wrote:
Norm2953 wrote:come back in September when things should be better.
Current estimates of 3-6 months seems set up well for a regular start of the 2020-21 season.


Not sure what the 3-6 months represent, but an optimistic perspective is good. However a realistic outlook is also needed. The quotes I have seen coming out of the CDC is the best case scenario is vaccine created, produced in adequate volumes, and distribution method implemented just for thus U.S. will occur no earlier than the middle of 2021.

Controlling the spread of the China virus doesn't depend on a vaccine. Containment is how it will be stopped. Vaccine development is a separate avenue of control. This China virus spreads primarily through respiratory droplets. Just like other similar viruses its spread will slow when the weather warms causing respiratory droplets to more quickly evaporate making conditions for transmission less likely. The China virus can also be transmitted from infected surfaces but it doesn't live long on surfaces and this type of transmission isn't a big percentage of how the virus is spread.

Scientists calculate transmissibility of viruses by assigning them an R0 rating. The China virus has an R0 of 2.2, meaning a single infected person will infect about 2.2 others, on average. The flu has an R0 of 1.3. The mortality rate of the China virus is also higher than the flu. The China virus mortality rate is 2.3% according to a Feb 18, report by the China CDC Weekly. The flu mortality rate is .1%.


OK ... warm weather will handle it all. No problems.
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Re: NBA suspending games after tonight - CV19 

Post#24 » by Norm2953 » Mon Mar 16, 2020 6:20 pm

warmer weather will help but here in Oregon that might be July which by then containment will
have helped contain the virus. It's still nuts to think about life getting back to normal and we'll
have to live without not just sports events but all places where people can gather.

It seems surreal the NFL free agency season is the only thing going on in the sports world.
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Re: NBA suspending games after tonight - CV19 

Post#25 » by Renegade » Mon Mar 16, 2020 8:36 pm

My response to Mr. Train was meant as sarcasm ... major sarcasm. I won't make any further comments about his "containment" suggestions except to say that evaporation is NOT the answer. A vaccine is. It will then be contained, assuming no mutations.
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Re: NBA suspending games after tonight - CV19 

Post#26 » by d-train » Mon Mar 16, 2020 10:10 pm

Renegade wrote:
d-train wrote:
Renegade wrote:
Not sure what the 3-6 months represent, but an optimistic perspective is good. However a realistic outlook is also needed. The quotes I have seen coming out of the CDC is the best case scenario is vaccine created, produced in adequate volumes, and distribution method implemented just for thus U.S. will occur no earlier than the middle of 2021.

Controlling the spread of the China virus doesn't depend on a vaccine. Containment is how it will be stopped. Vaccine development is a separate avenue of control. This China virus spreads primarily through respiratory droplets. Just like other similar viruses its spread will slow when the weather warms causing respiratory droplets to more quickly evaporate making conditions for transmission less likely. The China virus can also be transmitted from infected surfaces but it doesn't live long on surfaces and this type of transmission isn't a big percentage of how the virus is spread.

Scientists calculate transmissibility of viruses by assigning them an R0 rating. The China virus has an R0 of 2.2, meaning a single infected person will infect about 2.2 others, on average. The flu has an R0 of 1.3. The mortality rate of the China virus is also higher than the flu. The China virus mortality rate is 2.3% according to a Feb 18, report by the China CDC Weekly. The flu mortality rate is .1%.


OK ... warm weather will handle it all. No problems.

Who said warm weather would handle it? Containment is isolating infected people.
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Re: NBA suspending games after tonight - CV19 

Post#27 » by d-train » Mon Mar 16, 2020 10:17 pm

Social distancing is all we can do until we have a way of knowing who has it and who doesn't have it.
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Re: NBA suspending games after tonight - CV19 

Post#28 » by Wizenheimer » Tue Mar 17, 2020 9:56 pm

4 Brooklyn Nets' players, including Kevin Durant have tested positive for the virus

right now, it's hard to imagine that the NBA can salvage this season. By every projection by every expert, the pandemic is going to be much worse 3 months from now. The NBA might need to worry about next season

and the fall football season may be in jeopardy of being cancelled at all levels
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Re: NBA suspending games after tonight - CV19 

Post#29 » by Norm2953 » Tue Mar 17, 2020 10:13 pm

Wizenheimer wrote:4 Brooklyn Nets' players, including Kevin Durant have tested positive for the virus

right now, it's hard to imagine that the NBA can salvage this season. By every projection by every expert, the pandemic is going to be much worse 3 months from now. The NBA might need to worry about next season

and the fall football season may be in jeopardy of being cancelled at all levels


Isn't it weird the NFL off season is going on as if nothing has happened and it would be interesting to think about
the NBA off season if the season is over for all of the teams without the revenue from the rest of the season
and playoffs will have lost untold millions of dollars for will any team be spending any money? They are talking
about changing the season from December to August which would be equally weird.
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Re: NBA suspending games after tonight - CV19 

Post#30 » by d-train » Thu Mar 19, 2020 10:12 pm

I don't believe the NBA is going to just scrap the playoffs this year. Owners and players make their money in the playoffs. It just doesn't make sense to waste the investment in playing ~65 of the least profitable games and skipping the most profitable playoff games. We are going to have some sort of playoffs based on the results of the 80% of the regular season games that were played.

Even if the playoffs can't be played in the scheduled time remaining this season. The owners and players have a mutual interest in cashing in on the playoff money. They can push back the beginning of free agency and the offseason. They can even trim some games off next season's regular games.
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Re: NBA suspending games after tonight - CV19 

Post#31 » by Epicurus » Sat Mar 21, 2020 9:11 pm

It was very presumptuous of the NBA to cancel any Blazers' games. It is well known that Blazer defenders practice, even before this virus, social distance. They are never within 6 ft of a shooter, especially at the three point line.

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