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Why is it time to move on from Collins?

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Re: Why is it time to move on from Collins? 

Post#41 » by monopoman » Fri Aug 7, 2020 7:22 pm

BlazersBroncos wrote:
He fits a need, however if we pay him 8-10 mil per yr eventually that's ok, but given our other big salaries and a big Nurk increase likely 2 yrs after this then we can't and shouldn't pay him more.


Totally agree. In fact, I would try to entice him to a deal of that size by offering an extension this summer. Something like 4/40M. Gives him a 5M raise for next season but in return he doesnt bet on himself for a payoff higher than 10M AV summer 2021.

The unnecessarily early extensions to Dame and CJ last summer are going to make this team tremendously difficult to both keep together and improve. CJ simply is not a 30M AV guy. But then again all the lower tier #2 types in this league are way, way overpaid. At least his deal, to me, is better than guys like Tobias and Murray.

Yeah, players like CJ get overpaid in the NBA big time those players that at times look like they are clearly a star and at other times you wonder why on earth he is getting anywhere near his salary.
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Re: Why is it time to move on from Collins? 

Post#42 » by d-train » Sat Aug 8, 2020 12:12 am

I think it's a pipedream to believe Collins is going to be re-signed for $10M/season. Watch how much Grant gets this summer in a super cheap market. Collins and Grant are different positions, but they are similar in that their primary value is their ability to complement higher usage players. I bet Grant will get more than $15M/season and Zach might prove to be more valuable than Grant is. And, Zach will be in a market with a lot more money available.

Blazers are going to be in a real cap pinch when Lillard's supermax kicks in. We will need a large supply of good cheap talent on rookie contracts or we are going to be a terrible team. Blazers should really jump into this years draft if late 1st round picks get offered at a bargain by teams in luxury tax peril. In 2021, Blazers will have to re-sign Zach and Trent at the same time Lillard's contract jumps by $12M. The following year Nurk is do a new contract when Lillard's contract jumps by $16M. Olshey is very wise to be farming for young talent to keep this team afloat.
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Re: Why is it time to move on from Collins? 

Post#43 » by BlazersBroncos » Sat Aug 8, 2020 2:20 am

Grant has shown a lot more, but I wouldnt put it past Zach to breakout next season.

Its a very real possibility that GTJ and Zach show out next season to the point their monetary demands put us in a position to move CJ for cap space and cheap assets of loose them both. If thats the scenario, its pretty clear CJ needs to go. Can NBA players renegotiate their contracts like the NFL? If so, if anyone might do it to keep the talent together it would be Dame and CJ. The players side of the CBA would probably put out a hit on them though.
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Re: Why is it time to move on from Collins? 

Post#44 » by d-train » Sat Aug 8, 2020 3:35 pm

BlazersBroncos wrote:Can NBA players renegotiate their contracts like the NFL? If so, if anyone might do it to keep the talent together it would be Dame and CJ. The players side of the CBA would probably put out a hit on them though.

I don't know for sure, but I believe the answer is, no. Apparently, Blazers and Ariza can't even negotiate a reduction to Ariza's option. I can't imagine a reason why the CBA would forbid a negotiated reduction to an option but allow a reduction to guaranteed base salary. According to the folks in the CBA forum, the only way to reduce salary is negotiated buyout followed by waiving the player.

Also, I would say CJ and Lillard are likely to be both expendable at the same time. Either the tandem works or it doesn't. When the time comes to break them up, Blazers will likely have to take back some very undesirable contracts for either player. Hopefully, their effectiveness lasts to the end of their contracts and we keep them until then.
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Re: Why is it time to move on from Collins? 

Post#45 » by Sinobas » Sat Aug 8, 2020 8:36 pm

Zach hasn't even shown that he's a satisfactory starting PF. He's only a notch or two above garbage offensively, has piss poor hands, he's an above average defender, but overall, just doesn't bring enough to the table to warrant being anything above a backup.
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Re: Why is it time to move on from Collins? 

Post#46 » by Epicurus » Sat Aug 8, 2020 9:03 pm

It is unfortunate that LaBossiere (sp?) got injured when he did. I think he was on the path to be the ZC that folks wish for.
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Re: Why is it time to move on from Collins? 

Post#47 » by GEE » Sun Aug 9, 2020 2:51 am

Our defense that plays our bigs 25 feet from the basket is what sucks, not Collins. He's gonna be just fine. If other teams want their 7 footers shooting a bunch of 3's, go right ahead, I'll take my chances, but keep our bigs down low, and have Melo or Gabriel at the top of the key. Otherwise, foul trouble will likely happen, and the strengths of our bigs: guarding the paint, owning the boards, and blocking everything will be wasted.
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Re: Why is it time to move on from Collins? 

Post#48 » by Wizenheimer » Sun Aug 9, 2020 3:26 pm

when Nurkic was the same age as Collins, he was often logging double-doubles with blocks and assists as bonus. Jokic was averaging 19 - 11 - 6 at Zach's age. Zach will be 23 in 3 months; Zach is 2 years older than Jaren Jackson, a year older than Michael Porter, and the same age as John Collins. The 'he's-still-young' excuse is wearing a little thin

yeah, he coming back from a major injury so he's had a setback in development. Still, he's played in 170 games. Gary Trent, for instance, has played in 72

so then Zach is very unlikely to be a star in this league. He's not in the Nurkic/Jokic class; he'll very likely not be in the Jackson/Porter/J.Collins class. Portland had a critical game yesterday; a game they really needed to win. A game in which they were missing their backup C. Zach as the starter was only worth 24 minutes and almost none in the 4th Q. He's not versatile enough as a PF to switch onto SF's and stretch-4's and consistently guard them well. Not like Aminu and Ariza were able. And Zach isn't strong enough to consistently deny position to physical bigs. He's got tweener problems without having the tweener benefits

statistically, the closest familiar comp for Zach is Mo Harkless. That's about where the gauge for Zach's impact points right now

can he improve significantly? Sure...maybe. I haven't really seen anything he does well though. He's only got 1 more year on his rookie scale so the Blazers will have to decide in the near future. We know Olshey is a fan and if he follows his pattern then it's unlikely any serious competition for PF minutes will be added to the roster, so Zach will get his chances....if he can stay healthy and stop fouling
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Re: Why is it time to move on from Collins? 

Post#49 » by HoopsFanAZ » Sun Aug 9, 2020 4:57 pm

The following are a few truisms. Not fact, just it happens a lot.

1. Bigs take the longest to develop of any position player ... especially those with physical work to do and who are young to the game.
2. Euro bigs come in with better skill sets. Comparisons to Americans are dicey by playing against older pros as early as age 14 ... and forget the practice restrictions of college life. And Nurkic slimmed down which is good for a host of reasons.
3. SGs and SFs hit their prime the earliest of any position ... and GTJ as a Dukie got great coaching, and it’s in his lineage; his prime has an interesting ceiling depending on skills development ... handles, lateral quicks, back to the basket on the block (like Wesley M. and learning from Carmelo and the return of Hood). Apples and bacon positional and body type comparison — it’s that different.

I understand the numbers critique of Collins. I simply disagree with the guesstimating of many (most?) on this board. He, like Nurkic, will be a 3 level scorer and play effectively at both ends — Collins with excellent mobility in a big and Nurkic with good feet and tree solid. Keep both. Not even a question IMHO.

Trade Zach in a package to get Domantis Sabonis? I’m in. Otherwise, the long term starting bigs are already on the Blazers. I realize I’m seeing a different player than many here. We’re taking different eye tests.
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Re: Why is it time to move on from Collins? 

Post#50 » by d-train » Mon Aug 10, 2020 9:35 pm

Zach makes game changing plays on defense, which is what we need. His offense has some weaknesses, but the skills he has on offense are innate. He has great feel. His weaknesses are fundamental and can improve.
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Re: Why is it time to move on from Collins? 

Post#51 » by DaVoiceMaster » Mon Aug 10, 2020 9:40 pm

How often did we hear the saying, "bigs take the longest to develop of any position player" about Meyers Leonard? I would look to see what Simons & Collins can get you in return.
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Re: Why is it time to move on from Collins? 

Post#52 » by d-train » Mon Aug 10, 2020 9:48 pm

Why not make ridiculous comparisons to Moses Malone and Jermaine ONeal instead? Collins is good. He makes game changing plays with his unique skills on defense in particular. He will improve his finishing around the basket. He will continue taking 1000 shots per day.
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Re: Why is it time to move on from Collins? 

Post#53 » by DaVoiceMaster » Mon Aug 10, 2020 10:52 pm

If I keep hearing the same thing over and over regarding different BIG players developing, then I will continue using that comparison. Find a new catch phrase for people to use or kick Collins in the butt and tell him to get his S#*& together and i'll stop looking to move him. How many game changing plays has he had in the bubble so far? I'm not saying he's another Meyers Leonard, but he's also nothing special at this point. How long do we keep waiting for these BIGS to develop into a useful player?
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Re: Why is it time to move on from Collins? 

Post#54 » by KeepOnRollin » Tue Aug 11, 2020 1:30 am

huge dissappintment so far, we need to trade him
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Re: Why is it time to move on from Collins? 

Post#55 » by d-train » Tue Aug 11, 2020 1:44 am

DaVoiceMaster wrote:If I keep hearing the same thing over and over regarding different BIG players developing, then I will continue using that comparison. Find a new catch phrase for people to use or kick Collins in the butt and tell him to get his S#*& together and i'll stop looking to move him. How many game changing plays has he had in the bubble so far? I'm not saying he's another Meyers Leonard, but he's also nothing special at this point. How long do we keep waiting for these BIGS to develop into a useful player?

He has made great plays in every game in the bubble. His play has been very good. The only player I've been disappointed with is Hassan. And, that might be explained by injury.
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Re: Why is it time to move on from Collins? 

Post#56 » by Epicurus » Tue Aug 11, 2020 2:14 am

Fumbling passes, fumbling rebounds, unnecessary fouling, putting up weak putbacks---these are NOT great plays. Done regularly they suggest, even with some positives, a wink link in a starting lineup.
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Re: Why is it time to move on from Collins? 

Post#57 » by Roy The Natural » Tue Aug 11, 2020 2:59 am

DaVoiceMaster wrote:How often did we hear the saying, "bigs take the longest to develop of any position player" about Meyers Leonard? I would look to see what Simons & Collins can get you in return.


I guess the difference is that Meyers had shown absolutely nothing of value at this point. Zach has shown that he's capable of being a high impact defender, albeit inconsistently. Let's not over-magnify his play coming back from a serious shoulder injury. I'd see what he does next year with the offseason and another year of development.
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Re: Why is it time to move on from Collins? 

Post#58 » by Roy The Natural » Tue Aug 11, 2020 3:01 am

Epicurus wrote:Fumbling passes, fumbling rebounds, unnecessary fouling, putting up weak putbacks---these are NOR great plays. Done regularly they suggest, even with some positives, a wink link in a starting lineup.


Yea.. sure. I guess. I personally think that CJ has been the worst starter since the Memphis game. His defense has been absolutely abysmal, and he's been in early season chucking mode since the restart.
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Re: Why is it time to move on from Collins? 

Post#59 » by GEE » Tue Aug 11, 2020 3:04 am

Jeez... Is Collins really what's wrong with this team? He's still really young, progressing well, played just a handful of games in a weird environment, and is coming off a lengthy injury.

IMO, he is also far from maxed out on his potential. I don't see why, if given good coaching, he can't continue his current trajectory, and in 2 years, become just as good as All-Star Sabonis. Similar skill set with identical former coaching. Yes, he has made some mistakes, but to be fair, Dame has made a few bone-head plays too. Just let the cake bake people. Next year is the true test for him, and Simons too, to a lesser degree, GTJ just blossomed early.
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Re: Why is it time to move on from Collins? 

Post#60 » by Roy The Natural » Tue Aug 11, 2020 3:06 am

DaVoiceMaster wrote:If I keep hearing the same thing over and over regarding different BIG players developing, then I will continue using that comparison. Find a new catch phrase for people to use or kick Collins in the butt and tell him to get his S#*& together and i'll stop looking to move him. How many game changing plays has he had in the bubble so far? I'm not saying he's another Meyers Leonard, but he's also nothing special at this point. How long do we keep waiting for these BIGS to develop into a useful player?


I mean... we already know that right? He's not a star. But I think it's plausible that he's a bigman version of Batum as he hits his prime, and that's a valuable piece. A bigman who can hit open shots and provide defensive versatility. It is kind of hard to be toooo rough on him considering that some level of rust and lack of chemistry is to be expected after the long injury time.

His offense has been rough.

His defense has been up and down between really good, and pretty spotty.

He's rebounding waaaayyy better so there is improvement there.

His shot looks waaayy smoother and better. I might not have translated in 5 games, but that's not a fair sample size.

He's looked much stronger overall and has actually got some movement on mismatch post ups.


He's not a star. But I don't really see why he can't develop into a sort of less flashy more fundamentally sound Ibaka role for this team. A stretch big with some basic post up skills to use in the right matchup, and impact defense of course.

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