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Another Olshey complaint...

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Blazers20
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Another Olshey complaint... 

Post#1 » by Blazers20 » Tue Sep 15, 2020 5:07 pm

Why does Olshey continue to use the draft to try and improve this team versus packaging picks with players via trade? How many first round picks had Olshey traded, not many I assume.
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Re: Another Olshey complaint... 

Post#2 » by DeBlazerRiddem » Tue Sep 15, 2020 7:24 pm

Couple thoughts on the matter, with the underlined being the most important IMO:

1. It takes two to tango. There may not be many deals out there for players that are a significant win-now improvement at a position of need. Most teams hold onto valuable players so those available are cast-offs that another team doesn't want.

2. Draft picks are cost controlled: This is very important when you have big contracts to Lillard/McCollum

3. Draft picks give future value: The best way to add long-term talent for cheap is to hit on a draft pick. You wont hit every one of course, but if you can get a Trent Jr every couple years that keeps the talent pipeline flowing.


I think that Afflalo trade sticks out in Olshey's mind about the dangers of trading picks for win-now players. And Olshey has traded before, I remember 2015 he moved the pick for Plumlee. But in 2016 we missed out on players like LeVert, Siakam, Murray, Brogdon.
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Re: Another Olshey complaint... 

Post#3 » by Blazers20 » Tue Sep 15, 2020 7:48 pm

I get it, I just don’t think Olshey is the right decision maker for Portland.
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Re: Another Olshey complaint... 

Post#4 » by BlazersBroncos » Tue Sep 15, 2020 8:00 pm

I dont think he is the right decision maker either, but cost controlled rookies that are playing above their draft position are basically the only way this team improves at this point. Our cap is tied up in two guys that together wont win anything. To build that Dallas like one-off championship team we need to strike cheap gold across the board sooner than later. I dont see that happening. I think we are stuck between a rock and a hard place.
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Re: Another Olshey complaint... 

Post#5 » by DeBlazerRiddem » Tue Sep 15, 2020 8:08 pm

Blazers20 wrote:I get it, I just don’t think Olshey is the right decision maker for Portland.


Maybe not, we certainly aren't where we want to be. Some of that is clearly out of his hands (small FA market, injuries) but a good bit of that is clearly tied to moves he made. Of course ANY GM would make mistakes here and there, no GM is perfect.

I personally doubt any possible GM would have won a championship with this roster. Maybe some theoretical GM would have made the right theoretical series of moves to have us slightly better, but I don't envision a realistic universe in which the Blazers are winning chips with Dame.

The most likely scenario of being overly aggressive is burning all the teams assets and having to rebuild prematurely. That is way more likely to happen than hitting a grand slam. Something like we trade CJ and picks for Butler, but then Butler leaves us in free agency, leaving us with less than before. It's easy to sit on the sidelines and say take risks but I think risk management is the #1 job for a GM, or really anyone running a billion dollar franchise.


None of this is to excuse or defend Olshey really. There are very fair criticisms that deserve discussion. But I also think its easy to get lost in the glass half-empty mentality and forget that any alternative is also going to have criticisms.
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Re: Another Olshey complaint... 

Post#6 » by BlazersBroncos » Tue Sep 15, 2020 8:23 pm

The most likely scenario of being overly aggressive is burning all the teams assets and having to rebuild prematurely. That is way more likely to happen than hitting a grand slam. Something like we trade CJ and picks for Butler, but then Butler leaves us in free agency, leaving us with less than before. It's easy to sit on the sidelines and say take risks but I think risk management is the #1 job for a GM, or really anyone running a billion dollar franchise.


I understand this, but its also worth noting that Butler especially would have absolutely bonded with the intense competitiveness of Lillard and to a lesser extent Nurkic. We lost a huge opportunity when NO wasnt going after Jimmy like a dog in heat. Leonard would have left us, he was going to leave anyone, but I still would taket that 1 year gamble and end up without Leonard or CJ than be in the purgatory we currently are sinking into.
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Re: Another Olshey complaint... 

Post#7 » by HoopsFanAZ » Wed Sep 16, 2020 4:14 am

Seeing what Denver did to the Clippers, maybe Olshey actually pulls the trigger on CJ. GTJ at SG, Hood at SG/SF, and a better SF ... Middleton ... Hayward ... T Harris. I’m more hopeful about next year than this year. I actually expect a trade.
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Re: Another Olshey complaint... 

Post#8 » by Wizenheimer » Wed Sep 16, 2020 5:06 am

the big issue with 1st round picks under Olshey is he goes for projects way to often; meanwhile, Dame's prime burns away

the last 3 picks, Zach, Simons, and Little....they didn't help Dame at all against the Lakers. All three are projects, although I think zach is getting close to the what-you-see-is-what-you-get level

Olshey is great in the 2nd round, but seems pretty mediocre in the 1st round. If you go back to 2016 and 'count' the pick that Olshey gave up for Afflalo, these are the players Portland missed out on:

Caris LeVert
Pascal Siakam
Dejounte Murray
Ivica Zubac
Malcolm Brogdon
Donovan Mitchell
Bam Adebayo
John Collins
Jarrett Allen
OG Anunoby
Kyle Kuzma
Derrick White
Josh Hart
Dillon Brooks
Landry Shamet
Omari Spellman
Jalen Brunson
Devonte' Graham
Mitchell Robinson

Portland could have had Pascal Siakam, Bam Adebayo, & Derrick White this season. Or Malcolm Brogdon, John Collins, Kyle Kuzma, and Mitchell Robinson. Instead they have Zach, Simons, and Little

obviously, a GM is going to have misses in the draft, but any detailed examination of Olshey's record points to a slew of huge misses that could have dramatically altered the trajectory of the team. He's not nearly as good at managing the draft as he's credited for, and 2017 was a huge miss
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Re: Another Olshey complaint... 

Post#9 » by JasonStern » Wed Sep 16, 2020 5:31 pm

another problem - the Blazers under Olshey have been well above average at landing guards in the draft - Dame, CJ, Barton, Trent, Crabbe, Simons (TBD). but their track record drafting bigs has been... questionable. Collins (10th/15th + 20th), Leonard (11th), Swanigan, Withey, etc. especially considering how good the Blazers were under Warkentein (O'Neil, Randolph, threatening to walk out if Telfair was picked over Al Jefferson). other than Nurkić and Lopez, the trades for bigs have been mediocre (Plumlee, Labissière) to underwhelming (Vonleh, Robinson, Gee). In Milovan Raković and Bojan Dubljević we trust.
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Re: Another Olshey complaint... 

Post#10 » by Epicurus » Wed Sep 16, 2020 7:32 pm

DeBlazerRiddem wrote:Couple thoughts on the matter, with the underlined being the most important IMO:

1. It takes two to tango. There may not be many deals out there for players that are a significant win-now improvement at a position of need. Most teams hold onto valuable players so those available are cast-offs that another team doesn't want.

2. Draft picks are cost controlled: This is very important when you have big contracts to Lillard/McCollum

3. Draft picks give future value: The best way to add long-term talent for cheap is to hit on a draft pick. You wont hit every one of course, but if you can get a Trent Jr every couple years that keeps the talent pipeline flowing.


I think that Afflalo trade sticks out in Olshey's mind about the dangers of trading picks for win-now players. And Olshey has traded before, I remember 2015 he moved the pick for Plumlee. But in 2016 we missed out on players like LeVert, Siakam, Murray, Brogdon.
The Blazers were 5-1 with AA as backup to WM. He shored up the backups. I guess NO can be faulted for not projecting an injury to his iron man WM. In short, without the WM injury and with AA as backup the win-now strategy may have worked.
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Re: Another Olshey complaint... 

Post#11 » by DaVoiceMaster » Sat Sep 19, 2020 6:11 pm

What are the chance Olshey goes to Philadelphia?
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Re: Another Olshey complaint... 

Post#12 » by Soulyss » Sun Sep 20, 2020 3:56 am

DaVoiceMaster wrote:What are the chance Olshey goes to Philadelphia?


Almost zero...
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Re: Another Olshey complaint... 

Post#13 » by DaVoiceMaster » Sun Sep 20, 2020 4:02 am

Soulyss wrote:
DaVoiceMaster wrote:What are the chance Olshey goes to Philadelphia?


Almost zero...


Dunno. I read an article about it yesterday.
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Re: Another Olshey complaint... 

Post#14 » by Soulyss » Sun Sep 20, 2020 1:20 pm

DaVoiceMaster wrote:
Soulyss wrote:
DaVoiceMaster wrote:What are the chance Olshey goes to Philadelphia?


Almost zero...


Dunno. I read an article about it yesterday.


I read the same article, It said Olshey wanted "Total Power" which means that Brand would effectively have to fire himself. I suppose it's possible, but why I suspected that it's "Almost zero".

I know people like to bag on Olshey... but he's done... a pretty decent job even as we acknowledge his flaws pretty routinely. Fact of the matter is... if you lose him, who are you going to get that is better? None of the best GMs around are moving to Portland from their current roles, so we are either getting a re-tred or an up-and-come'r who's got no experience being the boss...

Olshey has enabled the culture that everyone touts, and people should not underestimate how hard that is to do.

So we should be careful what we wish for.

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