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How much has Melo got left in the tank?

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How much has Melo got left in the tank? 

Post#1 » by Ernest » Fri Oct 9, 2020 5:14 pm

Just wondering what Blazers fans think of him next year. How good will he be? Will he stay?

I posed the question on the Boston thread if we should try to sign him and everyone said no, but then again they said no last year too and he did well this year. Any thoughts on if he'd be a good fit on the Celtics if he doesn't stay in Portland?
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Re: How much has Melo got left in the tank? 

Post#2 » by DeBlazerRiddem » Fri Oct 9, 2020 6:06 pm

I think he's got some left in the tank, but its important to manage expectations because he is not a star anymore. He really only is valuable to a team that needs someone who can get their own shot to take pressure off their guards and that isn't really Boston IMO. Tatum and to a lesser extend Brown already do what he does and in a situation that isn't super desperate for what he does then his negatives become highlighted. In Boston I think he would limited to being a bench scorer and he would look bad like that because Melo's game is not a low-volume one. He needs reps and touches in order to get in rhythm and help pull the defense toward him.

There are very few teams that need a high volume / low-efficiency scorer. Portland was just the right spot where we needed a different point of attack, a scorer with size who didn't need to be setup by Damian or CJ. We were just so starved for any sort of ability to create shots because (before Nurkic came back) the best option we had outside our guards was Mario Hezonja and he is baaaaad.
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Re: How much has Melo got left in the tank? 

Post#3 » by Matt800 » Fri Oct 9, 2020 7:18 pm

I think Melo can bring a lot in the right circumstance as a 6th man type role and as a floor spreader. He showed he can be a good passer, and clutch 3 point shooter. I think he benefits from a more fluid offense where he is getting touches, making passes, and is consistently involved. Like golden state might be another place he could do well. His defense isn't necessarily horrible but I think it is a concern and a roster would benefit from having good defenders to make up for that. In Portland's case it was more that they need a guy who is a good defender, and Carmelo didnt exactly make them worse, but he wasn't able to be the solution defensively. But if he is on Portland next year it could work out considering Collins should be healthy, and there are some younger guys who have shown potential defensively.

As for a counter point, Melo didn't play a full season, and the bubble played to his strengths from giving him more rest time, and playing without travel. We don't really know if he could play a full season and remain useful in the playoffs. I would think so if he wasn't playing heavy minutes, but can Carmelo play a reduced role and still be locked in?
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Re: How much has Melo got left in the tank? 

Post#4 » by DaVoiceMaster » Sat Oct 10, 2020 8:45 am

What you saw this past season is just about what you should expect next season. Maybe there's a minor dip, but maybe not. I sure wouldn't expect anymore. In an ideal world, he would only play 1/2 to 2/3 of the minutes he played this year and come off the bench.
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Re: How much has Melo got left in the tank? 

Post#5 » by Soulyss » Sat Oct 10, 2020 12:48 pm

Honestly I don't think Melo stays in Portland unless Ariza is moved. I suspect he will end up in Los Angeles (either) chasing a ring.
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Re: How much has Melo got left in the tank? 

Post#6 » by Wizenheimer » Sun Oct 11, 2020 4:14 pm

Melo was 9th on the blazers in PER, 12th in TS%, 13th in FT Rate, 11th in Rebound rate, 13th in assist rate, 14th in winshares/48, 15th in box plus/minus, and 18th in value over replacement. But he was 4th in usage and avg FG attempts, and for the season, he was 3rd in total FG attempts

a player who can create his own shots has value, but that value diminishes rapidly as efficiency drops. Portland already has the shot-creating inefficiency of CJ dragging them down. Melo just adds to that bad trend. As a team, Portland averaged 1.26 points/shot. CJ averages 1.15 points/shot; Melo averaged 1.14 points/shot. And going by synergy stats at nba.com, their points/shot averages on shots they created for themselves are even lower than their overall averages

the point being that players with shot creating ability aren't always positive additions; not when that are so poor at creating shots with good efficiency. Teams would be better off giving those possessions to other players within the flow of the offense, even when the offense is sputtering

the ability to create-his-own-shots is grossly overrated when it isn't moderated by efficiency

basically, Melo's 'tank' is already running low. He'd probably be ok on another vet minimum deal, but Portland would be screwing up, again, if they made him a featured player such that he was 3rd on the team in overall usage and shot attempts. His role needs to be much smaller
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Re: How much has Melo got left in the tank? 

Post#7 » by Ernest » Sun Oct 11, 2020 6:00 pm

Cool thanks for the feedback
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Re: How much has Melo got left in the tank? 

Post#8 » by HoopsFanAZ » Sun Oct 11, 2020 6:42 pm

Wiz (and others well versed in stats based argument),

1. As compared to other players on the team, what is Carmelo Anthony good at?
2. Without considering other players on the team, what is Carmelo Anthony good at?
3. What game does Carmelo Anthony consider as "playing his game"? (stats and eyeball tests)

Once those three questions are answered, further discussion may head toward the answer to the question of the thread.
And to the $$$ amount to pay (or not to pay).
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Re: How much has Melo got left in the tank? 

Post#9 » by DeBlazerRiddem » Sun Oct 11, 2020 8:15 pm

Wizenheimer wrote:Melo was 9th on the blazers in PER, 12th in TS%, 13th in FT Rate, 11th in Rebound rate, 13th in assist rate, 14th in winshares/48, 15th in box plus/minus, and 18th in value over replacement. But he was 4th in usage and avg FG attempts, and for the season, he was 3rd in total FG attempts

a player who can create his own shots has value, but that value diminishes rapidly as efficiency drops. Portland already has the shot-creating inefficiency of CJ dragging them down. Melo just adds to that bad trend. As a team, Portland averaged 1.26 points/shot. CJ averages 1.15 points/shot; Melo averaged 1.14 points/shot. And going by synergy stats at nba.com, their points/shot averages on shots they created for themselves are even lower than their overall averages

the point being that players with shot creating ability aren't always positive additions; not when that are so poor at creating shots with good efficiency. Teams would be better off giving those possessions to other players within the flow of the offense, even when the offense is sputtering

the ability to create-his-own-shots is grossly overrated when it isn't moderated by efficiency

basically, Melo's 'tank' is already running low. He'd probably be ok on another vet minimum deal, but Portland would be screwing up, again, if they made him a featured player such that he was 3rd on the team in overall usage and shot attempts. His role needs to be much smaller


Not taking a shot or committing a turnover is worse than an inefficient shot. You have to "create a shot" first before you have any chance at making it. Essentially what I am saying is that I would take a series of Carmelo low-efficiency iso's over Hezonja's inept trying to initiate the offense. Even at lower efficiency Carmelo draws defense to him which opens the rest of the floor, allow off-ball players to cut and take advantage of a defense that is watching Melo pound the ball, these create opportunities.

Every possession you have to start with the ball in someone's hand and figure out how to get the ball into the net. If your options at the beginning of that chain are limited then so are the options at the end of the chain. Having more options at the beginning, even poor and inefficient ones, gives you more options at the end of the chain. Options open other options, meaning bad options can open good options. Carmelo, even as inefficient as he is, creates more options than Hezonja. If you don't recognize that value because some efficiency ranking then I suppose there is no way to convince you that something is better than nothing.

I'm probably going to be strawmanned again so let me say, this is not saying "Melo is good enough the Blazers should be happy with him", it's saying "we are a starving man and a can of cold refried beans isn't a fancy dinner but we have no better options". Getting rid or not having Melo would just have made us that much worse. I'm sure Whiteside had a higher points/shot than Melo but you just cannot put the ball in Hassan's hands time after time like you can Melo. That is misusing the stat in a way similar to claiming Mitchell Robinson is the best offensive player in the league.

I guess the best way to say it is that while not all shot-making is equal, if you need more of it because defense are clamping down on your go-to sets then you need more of it. You cannot run the same two plays all game long, you have to switch it up and have different looks, different points of attack. If you keep going just to your most 'efficient' shots then the defense adjusts and those become less efficient shots. Melo gave us that different look, allowed us to attack the defense from another angle, and no it wasn't always good and no it didn't lead to a championship, but it was still helpful.
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Re: How much has Melo got left in the tank? 

Post#10 » by DaVoiceMaster » Sun Oct 11, 2020 8:53 pm

The eye test says Melo played better in the bubble than during the playoffs. I think Melo is worth having around so long as the expectations for him are kept in check. I can't imagine anyone has high expectations for him.
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Re: How much has Melo got left in the tank? 

Post#11 » by Wizenheimer » Mon Oct 12, 2020 5:20 am

DeBlazerRiddem wrote:
Wizenheimer wrote:


Not taking a shot or committing a turnover is worse than an inefficient shot. You have to "create a shot" first before you have any chance at making it. Essentially what I am saying is that I would take a series of Carmelo low-efficiency iso's over Hezonja's inept trying to initiate the offense. Even at lower efficiency Carmelo draws defense to him which opens the rest of the floor, allow off-ball players to cut and take advantage of a defense that is watching Melo pound the ball, these create opportunities.

Every possession you have to start with the ball in someone's hand and figure out how to get the ball into the net. If your options at the beginning of that chain are limited then so are the options at the end of the chain. Having more options at the beginning, even poor and inefficient ones, gives you more options at the end of the chain. Options open other options, meaning bad options can open good options. Carmelo, even as inefficient as he is, creates more options than Hezonja. If you don't recognize that value because some efficiency ranking then I suppose there is no way to convince you that something is better than nothing.

I'm probably going to be strawmanned again so let me say, this is not saying "Melo is good enough the Blazers should be happy with him", it's saying "we are a starving man and a can of cold refried beans isn't a fancy dinner but we have no better options". Getting rid or not having Melo would just have made us that much worse. I'm sure Whiteside had a higher points/shot than Melo but you just cannot put the ball in Hassan's hands time after time like you can Melo. That is misusing the stat in a way similar to claiming Mitchell Robinson is the best offensive player in the league.

I guess the best way to say it is that while not all shot-making is equal, if you need more of it because defense are clamping down on your go-to sets then you need more of it. You cannot run the same two plays all game long, you have to switch it up and have different looks, different points of attack. If you keep going just to your most 'efficient' shots then the defense adjusts and those become less efficient shots. Melo gave us that different look, allowed us to attack the defense from another angle, and no it wasn't always good and no it didn't lead to a championship, but it was still helpful.


I don't know what you consider "strawmanning"...so that's one thing

about 47% of Melo's baskets were unassisted. 12.6% of his total possessions were isolation, so that's more than a quarter of his 'create-his-own-offense' shots. Melo averaged 0.86 ppp on isolation. That was only good enough for the 51st percentile. In other words, half of the NBA was better. Simons, Hood, and Hezonja were all much better at iso than Melo, although that was only 5% of Hezonja's offense. Melo was a terrible 23rd percentile on PnR ball-handler possessions, but that only accounted for about 10% of his unassisted possessions. (he was even worse as a PnR roll-man landing in the 14th percentile)

30% of Melo's total possessions were post-up and he was only in the 42nd percentile in that type of possession

now I know your argument is that teams need relief valves. A remedial offense like Portland's will break down often so they need to have another player to go one-on-one. But rather than taking the easy way out I'd suggest that Portland develop more options within their offense and on their roster rather than just landing a mediocre iso player with an aging game. Portland was 2nd in the NBA in the rate of iso-plays this season. The year before, when they won 53 games, they were 13th. And yeah, I know, injuries, but maybe they should consider that when their rate of iso was jumping from 6.8% to 9.9%, their offense was worse, and that's with Dame playing at a super level for much of the season

like I said, I'd be ok with Melo coming back and playing for a vet minimum salary, as long as his role was reduced. But I don't want Portland to spend a good chunk of the MLE on Melo while running as much one-on-one as they did last year. I believe Melo's impact was overrated, and impact stats like winshares, BPM, and RPM show that
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Re: How much has Melo got left in the tank? 

Post#12 » by BlazersBroncos » Mon Oct 12, 2020 5:03 pm

I really dont think he comes back. His career has maybe 2 bench years left and once LBJ or Leonard get in his ear, he is gone.

I suspect he ends up a Laker. It allows them to make a consolidation trade using Kuzma as the bait as Melo can simply take Kyle's rotation bench scoring spot.
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Re: How much has Melo got left in the tank? 

Post#13 » by JasonStern » Wed Oct 21, 2020 6:16 pm

Read on Twitter
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Reporter: Why do you shoot so many 3s?
Hezonja: Because there are no 0s!
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Re: How much has Melo got left in the tank? 

Post#14 » by BlazersBroncos » Wed Oct 21, 2020 6:49 pm

lol wut

He is a 20mpg guy on a good team. If he really believes this he is just as delusional as many thought he was before the Portland stint.
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Re: How much has Melo got left in the tank? 

Post#15 » by d-train » Thu Oct 22, 2020 5:18 pm

Melo has plenty left in the tank. He can play 40mpg if needed. How much he has left isn't the issue. Blazers need to surround Lillard and CJ with teammates that are dedicated to the team and winning. More than any other player on the team, Melo proved in the bubble and playoffs that he is dedicated to the team and winning. The only players more important to team success, other than Lillard and CJ, are Nurkic and Collins. The real question is, can Nurk and Collins have a healthy season and playoffs. I think Melo has answered any reasonable doubts on his readiness.
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Re: How much has Melo got left in the tank? 

Post#16 » by TBpup » Yesterday 8:57 pm

Soulyss wrote:Honestly I don't think Melo stays in Portland unless Ariza is moved. I suspect he will end up in Los Angeles (either) chasing a ring.


Either that or joining CP3 in NY if he gets traded there.
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Re: How much has Melo got left in the tank? 

Post#17 » by Soulyss » Today 2:30 am

TBpup wrote:
Soulyss wrote:Honestly I don't think Melo stays in Portland unless Ariza is moved. I suspect he will end up in Los Angeles (either) chasing a ring.


Either that or joining CP3 in NY if he gets traded there.


Yeah that is a fair assessment, and it would very... Knick like to Trade for CP3.

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