BlazersBroncos wrote:This is very different from the Meyers situation. Zach has a skillset that fits the modern NBA.
if being a weak positional rebounder who shoot 32% on three's while being a significantly overrated defender is a modern skillset, than yeah, he fits
BlazersBroncos wrote:He showed flashes of play at times his sophmore year that Meyers never did, especially in the playoffs where he posted a teriffic 2.2 DBPM over the run.
you're selling him short...he actually posted a 2.7 DBPM. BUT, he did so only averaging 17 minutes off the bench. That's too small a sample size to trust, especially considering his rank on the team (1st) was so far out of line with where he has ranked in each of his '3' seasons (about 8th-10th). Except for that one playoffs, Zach's DBPM hasn't been good
another gauge you can use is to compare individual defensive rating to the team's defensive rating. In Zach's 1st season, he was 0.6 points worse than the team. In his 2nd season, he was 0.5 points better than the team. Last season, not only was he 15th on the team in DBPM, he was 1.2 points worse than the team in defensive rating. Now, you can argue a sample size issue, and that would have weight. But you can also argue that the facts he increased his minutes by 10 a game and was suddenly facing starting PF's had something to do with it
by the way, he also had a -2.0 OBPM in those playoffs
BlazersBroncos wrote:He still has talent and potential and buying low on a cheap extension is the direction I would take. If he flames out, we get burnt but not too badly. If he balls out, we get a steal. If he falls in the middle, we have a 7M (Or so) salary ballast attached to a 7 footer who can defend and shoot the 3, something that may be appealing in future trades for a bigger contract as part of a package.
at least that argument doesn't rely on stats because frankly, there are really no good statistical arguments in favor of him
take the lack of favorable stats, and then add the very real possibility that he could end up missing half of the total games Portland will play in the 4 years of his rookie deal. That is not a resume that should be rewarded with a 3 year extension IMO, especially not with a deal at 2/3rds of a full MLE
now obviously, this is all subjective. I don't see the level of talent that you see, but my vision could be missing things. I also see a PF that does a poor job of defending speed on the perimeter and a C who is too easily dislodged from position by bigger stronger opponents in the paint. I think Zach is an average, at best, man defender. He is a good help defender though
as far as potential, how much is real and how much is mirage? If Zach misses the rest of this season, then he has a very concerning issue with his ankle. And, he will be 24 when next season starts. Nurkic was averaging 18 points, 10 rebounds, and 4 assists at 24. At a certain point, you have to start debiting that potential in the scorecard. The Blazers have spent a lot of time betting on the potential of bigs that never arrives over the last dozen years or so: Channing Frye, Joel Freeland, TRob, Meyers. Zach sure appears to be headed in the wrong direction.
the biggest problem in my view is that Zach is an Olshey project and Olshey has a bad habit of bidding against himself when he's dealing with one of his favorites. I'd like to see the market decide Zach's next deal because if he does miss the season, I think the market would be 2-4M a year rather than 7M
