Game 17: Portland vs Houston 4:30pm TNT

[Epicurus]

The injured players, if healthy, would be very competitive with those starting now. I would bet on them.

[JasonStern]

The injured players, if healthy, would be very competitive with those starting now. I would bet on them.

Never bet against Dame.

[whatchaknow]

I did and responded to the whole post. Going on first impressions is emotional thinking. We all do it, but correctives exist and fortunately they are available with a few clicks.

First impressions? Not sure where you got that from but your coming off very snarky and it’s rather annoying. You post your “open/contested” stats like they’re the end all be all in the looks we get when in reality not all are created equal. My main point to the post was that our offense is constantly under pressure. Starting 35 ft from the hoop, hardly ever with clean handoffs, often times with ball denials which can lead to ruined flow and sets entirely.

Do you have stats for that kind of stuff? I mean you told me it was only a few clicks away. All you gotta do is look at the blown leads, the hot starts and then the eventual meltdown from goin cold with no clean looks. It’s no rocket science that nba defense in the first quarter is not what it is later in games and when the pressure is turned up the blazers offense is a mess. Seen it this year, seen it last year in the playoffs, and seen it in the playoffs for the last however many years you wanna go back.

[Epicurus]

If your observation is such a reality, then it is indeed confusing why the offense is and has been so damned effective.

First impressions is what one sees watching the game as a fan one time. You annoy me and I annoy you. So be it! I did not imply that any stat is the be all and end all, but they carry information which often counters folks whose first impressions are the Blazers never or seldom get open looks and the opponents alway or often do. They are objective measures of distance of defender at release of a shot. Don't like them, then offer something better.

I've been watching the NBA since Sweetwater Clifton and was still a pre-teen when I understood that no lead was safe. i for awhile later didn't watch a game until the the 4th quarter,often with about 8minutes remaining. If you think this is unique to the Blazers, then you really need to get a league pass. It isn't nor never has been.

I fear you like some others believe that basketball sophistication requires filtering for the bad moments and discounting the good ones. 100 possessions per team, give or take, there will be plenty of both.

[whatchaknow]

It’s not confusing at all, dame and cj are and have always been why this offense is effective. I think most people just wish this offense had more movement and the ball didn’t stick in places so often. As we’ve seen as good as this offense has looked at times, in the playoffs it has a knack for completely disappearing for long stretches at a time.

And while you may say the blown leads are not unique to the blazers and while you may be right. I challenge you to the 2019 warriors series, also they are the only team this season to lose multiple games after holding a 20 point lead and we’re not even 20 games in. And it really coulda been at least another loss with that knicks game. So yeah if it’s single digit games that’s one thing, a couple shots can flip that in no time, but we’re talking embarrassing blown leads

[Epicurus]

The offense has much player movement. That is a key to the offense-- movement to overload, to misdirect, to mismatch, to create a chute for drives. It is a read and react offense. Yes, it is to bring as much opportunity as possible to its better scorers who also don't turn the ball over. That would be the two starting guards. I would want an offense designed to do that, given the talents of those two. I guess one can demand the old everyone touches the ball before a shot is taken, but that's so junior high. A poor offense certainly have a higher rate of turnovers than we have seen with the Blazers over the years, even those like last year with a mediocre and injured roster.

As I recall the '19 series, the center was fasting with one useful arm. So much so that Meyers Leonard had to start the final game. I think other physical issues existed, but am cloudy without reviewing the games.

I have no idea what team has blown more 20 or greater leads this season, but only know the Blazers are not unique. Sometimes, if one looks at lineups, one sees lineups with high backup usage, particularly when injuries have meant more backup court time for those not expected to get such earlier. Those linups often mean lead losses or wider disparities.

In truth, I find it bizarre that folks complain about a perennially good to very good offense which is designed to enable the more efficient shot creators. I don't find concerns about the defense bizarre, however. I do find puzzling why only one factor for the bad performance is considered by some.

[Epicurus]

Blown leads--something from 3 years ago--https://www.reddit.com/r/nba/comments/7mx0tt/oc_looking_at_what_teams_have_blown_the_most/

Blazers had but 4 compared to Dallas 11 and Memphis 10.I can't find anything for this season, but you seem to have found it. Please share.

[whatchaknow]

Read on Twitter

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Not to mention the Knicks game which technically was a win but they let them back in that game because they only scored 46 points in the 2nd half but 10 of those were at the ft stripe extending the game.

I don’t wanna speak for everybody else but I think the defense doesn’t get complained about because of personnel. Playing Kanter, melo, dame, cj, ant, and Giles useful minutes is not gonna give you useful defensive results imo. Doesn’t mean the defense isn’t a problem because it absolutely is. But when you waste multiple possessions a game with melo post ups, dame launching 40 footers, and a good chunk of your open looks are going to guys like Covington and Jones, the offense has room for improvement.

My whole point was originally that getting offense has been more difficult since dame extended his range due to added defensive pressure. Maybe I’m wrong there and the muddled up sets from the extended defense and starting the offense out further actually has no effect but I doubt that. I just think the guards we got are such insane scoring talents they make up for a lot of our issues. Like having no players in the frontcourt who can create or handle the ball but that’s for a different thread

[HoopsFanAZ]

While there may be some snark or just emotion on some exchanges here ... it’s also good conversation. And ideas. And concerns about the team. I agree and disagree with several of you and gave +1’s and wished for a -1 option as well.

I saw the final quarter and will watch the entirety to see both the young guys and how the Blazers lost to a lesser team that amped up their D and knows how to do so against Lillard while keeping Kanter off the O boards. Yes, it’s the injuries and backups starting and end of bench guys having to play more than garbage time. It’s also playing .500 against teams they need to beat to even make the playoffs. Now on the road, they face a tougher stretch.

As to fixes:
1. Get healthy, stay healthy. Pretty obvious.
2. Trade CJ. His ability to create space to get his own shot also doesn’t draw contact. Likewise, this ability has him playing small on D. CJ has some grit and guts on O, but Trent’s aggression at both ends (and size) will make the trade feasible. Wesley M and his Achilles out, CJ in.
3. Stotts has done well with less but doesn’t get guys to create turnovers, control the D boards or get easy shots and free throws when several possessions do nothing (which is a prime cause of big leads evaporating). Then, he waits too long to break up opposing runs calling time out and adjusting personnel and strategy.

And to paraphrase Michael Corleone to Sonny, it’s not personal [or emotional], it’s just business. Only by missing the playoffs will Olshey move on from Stotts anytime soon.

[Wizenheimer]

I mean this team is decimated by injuries pretty badly, this season we have even more guys down than last year. Now we have more depth than last year so it doesn't seem as bad though.

Let's list them all:

Zach Collins
Jusuf Nurkic
Derrick Jones Jr. (Likely out for a game or two at most.)
CJ McCollum
Robert Covington (Likely out for another few games at most.)

I mean what is even more devastating is that nearly everyone injured is a starter ideally. Collins is the one some would argue should be coming off the bench but he would likely start depending on matchup assuming everyone was healthy.

well, except for Collins (who was only the starter by default because Olshey, once again, cleared the roster of any serious competition for one of his guys), they had all those guys healthy and were basically a .500 team. Yeah, it's a weird season because of Covid, but Portland wasn't beating very many teams at their level. Portland has been on a treadmill and it didn't look like this year's version was enough to get off that treadmill

not only that, at a certain point, injuries morph from a reason >> excuse >> roster problem. Nurkic and Zach are injury prone; they are not dependable. Them being hurt should be an expectation now and not a surprise. For the rest, role players are hurt all the time...on every team. This Blazer team was supposed to have great depth so role players like RoCo and Jones missing 2 or 3 games shouldn't be an issue. But it is and that loops right back around to Olshey. He has stubbornly refused to add a competent backup PG, and his idea of what depth and talent on the wing should be are screwed up big time. He inherited a pretty good pair of forwards in Aldridge and Batum, but since those guys 'left' Olshey has cheapscrewed together flawed & weak forward/wing rotations. And forward/wing are where elite NBA teams are made

high level mediocrity is still mediocrity and as long as Portland continues with the same GM and coach, the best they can hope for is to look like a pretender during the regular season, and getting stomped by a real contender in the playoffs while having low draft picks. Rinse-repeat with lots to look forward to

[whatchaknow]

I mean this team is decimated by injuries pretty badly, this season we have even more guys down than last year. Now we have more depth than last year so it doesn't seem as bad though.

Let's list them all:

Zach Collins
Jusuf Nurkic
Derrick Jones Jr. (Likely out for a game or two at most.)
CJ McCollum
Robert Covington (Likely out for another few games at most.)

I mean what is even more devastating is that nearly everyone injured is a starter ideally. Collins is the one some would argue should be coming off the bench but he would likely start depending on matchup assuming everyone was healthy.

well, except for Collins (who was only the starter by default because Olshey, once again, cleared the roster of any serious competition for one of his guys), they had all those guys healthy and were basically a .500 team. Yeah, it's a weird season because of Covid, but Portland wasn't beating very many teams at their level. Portland has been on a treadmill and it didn't look like this year's version was enough to get off that treadmill

not only that, at a certain point, injuries morph from a reason >> excuse >> roster problem. Nurkic and Zach are injury prone; they are not dependable. Them being hurt should be an expectation now and not a surprise. For the rest, role players are hurt all the time...on every team. This Blazer team was supposed to have great depth so role players like RoCo and Jones missing 2 or 3 games shouldn't be an issue. But it is and that loops right back around to Olshey. He has stubbornly refused to add a competent backup PG, and his idea of what depth and talent on the wing should be are screwed up big time. He inherited a pretty good pair of forwards in Aldridge and Batum, but since those guys 'left' Olshey has cheapscrewed together flawed & weak forward/wing rotations. And forward/wing are where elite NBA teams are made

high level mediocrity is still mediocrity and as long as Portland continues with the same GM and coach, the best they can hope for is to look like a pretender during the regular season, and getting stomped by a real contender in the playoffs while having low draft picks. Rinse-repeat with lots to look forward to

Agree on the gm for sure mostly because with him in town the personnel will remain similar. Stotts I could go either way, there’s no coach off the top of my head that’s an upgrade but might be worth getting a new voice and philosophy. Not sure it really matters though unless there is an influx of upgraded talent all over the roster or one major upgrade somewhere. I do wonder if a new gm sees it like a lot of people do and would overhaul the roster completely and go almost okc thunder on us? Dealing guys for picks before it’s too late might not be the worst case. Although being competitive is fun I don’t see a path to a title

[HoopsFanAZ]

Wiz, I can’t disagree with you about Nurkic and Collins as injury prone. Nurkic losing weight should help. Collins building core strength should help. But it hasn’t, yet. When Prz dropped the bulk muscle from early in his career, he got healthy and then improved his free throws to okay, making him a threat beyond 3 feet. Nurkic is the best Blazers center since Sabonis. Becoming “unreliable” due to injury.

Getting a shorter but mobile, strong guy like Theis is looking smarter? A less mobile but strong guy like Steven Adams or RoLo?
Unreliable and really good is frustrating.

[Epicurus]

If championship be the only worthy goal of the Blazers, they are not going to get there with this team. It ain't that talented on either side of the ball (same with about 25 other teams). Even without the injury plague, it was just bombastic to suggest championship level.

So if that is the goal, then I suggest firing Olshey and Stotts immediately. Hire someone young who want both positions and considered a real pros pro. Then trade for Lillard for a bucket full of first round draft choices, enough to guarantee a strong tall PG prospect and a physically imposing rebounding big with a good shot touch and fierce defensive determination and talents. Irading lillard increases the chances of getting both.

Trade McColum for some youngish underplayed diamonds in the rough and some second rounders.

Then make sure the new coach/gm feels no owenership pressure to get into the playoffs this season and at least next. Thus the Blazers will get a top lottery pick (this year and probably next).

In addition, I suggest the city of Portland increasing its suicide prevention response teams, as a couple of years of youth development and mounting losses may play havoc with the terminally impatient fans.

Yet assuming at least average health and a supportive on and off court chemistry, within three years will be a .600 club and from there get the banner ready. Go all in or just cry less now.