Norman Powell to Blazers for GTJ

[wco81]

Unfortunately, I think the reason we traded Gary is that we know we cannot afford him, meaning we probably cant afford Powell either, so its looking like we went out and got a better player to rent for the end of the season. Here's to hoping Powell really gives us a dangerous bench that can help us go deep in the playoffs and Norm earns himself a fat payday.

Jody Allen can't afford it?

Or she doesn't want to?

[Norm2953]

It will be interesting to see if Portland will do most of their shopping in the buyout market for they
do have an open roster spot

[d-train]

It only makes sense if Portland is finally ready to move on from CJ in the off season.

Why does it only make sense if we trash our team? We traded 2 backup guards for an upgraded talent and a better defender against size. He is going to be expensive when we extend him, but he isn't going to cost much more than GTJ will. And, we create more room under the tax and another roster opening this season. It's a win-win-win for us.

[Blazinaway]

It will be interesting to see if Portland will do most of their shopping in the buyout market for they
do have an open roster spot

Believe they now have TWO open spots

[d-train]

Treat him well. Awesome character, great player. He was our home grown who developed in our system. Really stepped up last season and this one.

Haha we could say the exact same things about Gary. Really good guy, brings a ton of energy and positivity, plays his butt off and really stepped up in the bubble and with CJ down. Bright things ahead for him.


Unfortunately, I think the reason we traded Gary is that we know we cannot afford him, meaning we probably cant afford Powell either, so its looking like we went out and got a better player to rent for the end of the season. Here's to hoping Powell really gives us a dangerous bench that can help us go deep in the playoffs and Norm earns himself a fat payday.

We made the trade because we got a better player to spend our money on. We are going to be a taxpaying team next year. We are improving our options in how we can spend the money.

[valleyman33]

Not sure why there is so many complaints about this trade. Portland got the win on talent, I think Powell is the 3rd best 3pt shooter in the league. Hate to lose GTJ, but I think he would have cost too much as a RFA. Hood has not come up to what he was before the injury. Would be great if we can re-sign Powell, but if we are in a win now scenario, this trade looks great to me. 2 open roster spots, hope we can get a big man to help out for one of them, and maybe a true backup point guard.

[Blazinaway]

Not sure why there is so many complaints about this trade. Portland got the win on talent, I think Powell is the 3rd best 3pt shooter in the league. Hate to lose GTJ, but I think he would have cost too much as a RFA. Hood has not come up to what he was before the injury. Would be great if we can re-sign Powell, but if we are in a win now scenario, this trade looks great to me. 2 open roster spots, hope we can get a big man to help out for one of them, and maybe a true backup point guard.

Yes and with Hood gone as well perhaps a few more minutes for Nas

[Norm2953]

Portland does have two open roster spots and one under the minimum. They have to sign somebody
and I continue to hope for LA for counting on Nurk and Zach to stay healthy is what I saw too much
yrs ago with Oden, Roy and LA.

[The Graduate]

I'd be shocked in Neil saw this move as only a rental. Re-sign Powell this offseason (overpay if need be) and figure out the logistics later. Perhaps that means CJ is moved? Perhaps you move a re-signed Powell later? Perhaps you even start Powell at the 3 next year (probably my least favorite option)?

If Neil and Jody weren't willing to spend this summer, you might as well unload your assets now (which they clearly haven't). Nothing about this move indicates that the Blazers aren't going to be willing to spend.

[Norm2953]

Its a matter of payroll logistics for Dame's extension pays him $40+ million starting in 2021-22 and ending in 2024-5
with $54 Million. CJ is signed for three years/$100 million. It's rumored Powell is going to want $50/2 and if Portland
pays him, the team is at $100 million for three guards with extensions on the horizon for Nurk and Roco. Assuming
DJJ opts out as expected, Portland indeed will be deeply in luxury taxes for the forseeable future, even if they
lose Powell.

[kumquat]

I like Powell, but gonna miss Gary

Felt like the attitude and hustle of the team. Would have been happier if CJ was traded. Think this was a contract scenario more than anything.

[JasonStern]

Rough math that someone like Wizenheimer can correct me on. 2021-22 salary:

$136.6 million = projected luxury tax

Guaranteed:
$43.7M Dame
$30.8M CJ
$13M Covington
$12M Nurkić
$3.9M Simons
$2.3M Little
$1.5M Elleby
= $107.2M for 7 players

I can see Anthony returning, so let's add $2.6M to get us to 8 players
= $110M for 8 players

Jones $9.7M player option - I personally don't see him turning it down, but I've never been as high on Jones as many other board members.
= $119.7M for 9 players

That leaves $16.9M to sign 5 players. You also risk losing Kanter, Collins, and Giles.

Kanter is important, so let's presume he signs for a team-friendly $6M/season.
= $125.7M for 10 players.

So $10.9M left to sign 4 players. So the Blazers sign 3 minimum contract veterans/scrubs at $1.7M. If it makes you feel happy, pretend Collins is one of the scrubs.
= $130.8M for 13 players.

That leaves $5.8M to keep Powell without going into the luxury tax. That's half of his player option that he is certainly opting out of. Now maybe Jones opts out, and that frees up $9.7M. But that still puts you at $15.5M plus adds a roster spot. So you add another $1.7M veteran/scrub and have $13.8M and a roster half composed of veteran/scrubs. And maybe Olshey at that point considers signing him for $20M, knowing that he will have to do a mid-season trade to lower salary. He's done similar moves before, but those moves never came from a position of power.

So is Powell a rental? Without a DEEP playoff run that convinces post-Paul Allen management to go for it, absolutely. But I don't think this roster is deep enough to do that. And a lot of teams the Blazers are competing with also got better.

But it also shows you how unlikely it would have been to keep Trent, presuming trading CJ is off limits. That's the side effect of tying half of your cap space to two guards.

The Afflalo analogy is flawed. We didn't trade a 1st for Powell. We traded 2 players that management most likely was going to have to let walk, and Powell is a much better player than Afflalo. Could Trent have landed Portland a late 1st? Possibly, but then you're trading a productive third guard for a first during Dame's prime.

Ugh. And then I did all of that forgetting that we're still on the hook for $2.8M from stretching Nicholson.

The math could have worked with Gordon due to him being under contract for one more year. Plus he could legit start for us instead of being a third guard. Worst case there, Portland would have to dump Jones. But maybe Olshey didn't like a Gordon/Covington forward lineup. Maybe Orlando wanted nothing to do with Trent and his impending free agency. Maybe there was bad blood from the off-season negotiations. Who knows?

It will be interesting to see if Portland will do most of their shopping in the buyout market for they
do have an open roster spot

Believe they now have TWO open spots

Right. Two weeks to sign a player to get back to 14. Hopefully we do something better than just bring up Blevins.

[Oakvillehoops]

Treat him well. Awesome character, great player. He was our home grown who developed in our system. Really stepped up last season and this one.

Haha we could say the exact same things about Gary. Really good guy, brings a ton of energy and positivity, plays his butt off and really stepped up in the bubble and with CJ down. Bright things ahead for him.

For what it’s worth, you can’t play Norm off the bench. He’s a Rhythm guy and is a completely different player as a starter. If you guys intend to bring him off the bench, this May not have been a good trade


Unfortunately, I think the reason we traded Gary is that we know we cannot afford him, meaning we probably cant afford Powell either, so its looking like we went out and got a better player to rent for the end of the season. Here's to hoping Powell really gives us a dangerous bench that can help us go deep in the playoffs and Norm earns himself a fat payday.

[d-train]

Rough math that someone like Wizenheimer can correct me on. 2021-22 salary:

$136.6 million = projected luxury tax

Guaranteed:
$43.7M Dame
$30.8M CJ
$13M Covington
$12M Nurkić
$3.9M Simons
$2.3M Little
$1.5M Elleby
= $107.2M for 7 players

I can see Anthony returning, so let's add $2.6M to get us to 8 players
= $110M for 8 players

Jones $9.7M player option - I personally don't see him turning it down, but I've never been as high on Jones as many other board members.
= $119.7M for 9 players

That leaves $16.9M to sign 5 players. You also risk losing Kanter, Collins, and Giles.

Kanter is important, so let's presume he signs for a team-friendly $6M/season.
= $125.7M for 10 players.

So $10.9M left to sign 4 players. So the Blazers sign 3 minimum contract veterans/scrubs at $1.7M. If it makes you feel happy, pretend Collins is one of the scrubs.
= $130.8M for 13 players.

That leaves $5.8M to keep Powell without going into the luxury tax. That's half of his player option that he is certainly opting out of. Now maybe Jones opts out, and that frees up $9.7M. But that still puts you at $15.5M plus adds a roster spot. So you add another $1.7M veteran/scrub and have $13.8M and a roster half composed of veteran/scrubs. And maybe Olshey at that point considers signing him for $20M, knowing that he will have to do a mid-season trade to lower salary. He's done similar moves before, but those moves never came from a position of power.

So is Powell a rental? Without a DEEP playoff run that convinces post-Paul Allen management to go for it, absolutely. But I don't think this roster is deep enough to do that. And a lot of teams the Blazers are competing with also got better.

But it also shows you how unlikely it would have been to keep Trent, presuming trading CJ is off limits. That's the side effect of tying half of your cap space to two guards.

The Afflalo analogy is flawed. We didn't trade a 1st for Powell. We traded 2 players that management most likely was going to have to let walk, and Powell is a much better player than Afflalo. Could Trent have landed Portland a late 1st? Possibly, but then you're trading a productive third guard for a first during Dame's prime.

Ugh. And then I did all of that forgetting that we're still on the hook for $2.8M from stretching Nicholson.

The math could have worked with Gordon due to him being under contract for one more year. Plus he could legit start for us instead of being a third guard. Worst case there, Portland would have to dump Jones. But maybe Olshey didn't like a Gordon/Covington forward lineup. Maybe Orlando wanted nothing to do with Trent and his impending free agency. Maybe there was bad blood from the off-season negotiations. Who knows?

It will be interesting to see if Portland will do most of their shopping in the buyout market for they
do have an open roster spot

Believe they now have TWO open spots

Right. Two weeks to sign a player to get back to 14. Hopefully we do something better than just bring up Blevins.

What it really shows is how many wrong assumptions can be made in 1 post, no offense. I would elaborate, but I will leave you with the title for most wrong assumptions.

[monopoman]

I was kind of scratching my head on this trade. Powell has proven more in big games and he seems to take it to the hole more than Trent.
Seems like kind of a wash, unless they really feared having to pay GTJ like $20 million a year or more.

Powell may look for something like that as well, since he was scoring almost 20 PPG at very good efficiency.

If they keep him, it's 3 great shooting guards but they're all 6-3 or under. Blazers become even more guard-centric than they've been in the past.

Do the Blazers get Powell's Bird rights? Or would they have had cap space to sign him as a free agent this summer if they really wanted him?

GTJ at 22 may have greater ceiling so if they're going to spend on a big contract this season, it seems he could make more sense, maybe even be able to play the 3 or at least switch to wings.

I mean I could see some desperate team offer GT Jr. a big contract, even at $15 million per year that is a tough pill to swallow for this team with CJ+Nurk+Lillard taking up a huge chunk of the cap by themselves.

I also see this move as more of a let's see what this team can do now, if the Blazers make a big playoff run then maybe management swallows the pill and goes into the luxury tax for a few years by re-signing Powell.

[The Graduate]

Rough math that someone like Wizenheimer can correct me on. 2021-22 salary:

$136.6 million = projected luxury tax

Guaranteed:
$43.7M Dame
$30.8M CJ
$13M Covington
$12M Nurkić
$3.9M Simons
$2.3M Little
$1.5M Elleby
= $107.2M for 7 players

I can see Anthony returning, so let's add $2.6M to get us to 8 players
= $110M for 8 players

Jones $9.7M player option - I personally don't see him turning it down, but I've never been as high on Jones as many other board members.
= $119.7M for 9 players

That leaves $16.9M to sign 5 players. You also risk losing Kanter, Collins, and Giles.

Kanter is important, so let's presume he signs for a team-friendly $6M/season.
= $125.7M for 10 players.

So $10.9M left to sign 4 players. So the Blazers sign 3 minimum contract veterans/scrubs at $1.7M. If it makes you feel happy, pretend Collins is one of the scrubs.
= $130.8M for 13 players.

That leaves $5.8M to keep Powell without going into the luxury tax. That's half of his player option that he is certainly opting out of. Now maybe Jones opts out, and that frees up $9.7M. But that still puts you at $15.5M plus adds a roster spot. So you add another $1.7M veteran/scrub and have $13.8M and a roster half composed of veteran/scrubs. And maybe Olshey at that point considers signing him for $20M, knowing that he will have to do a mid-season trade to lower salary. He's done similar moves before, but those moves never came from a position of power.

So is Powell a rental? Without a DEEP playoff run that convinces post-Paul Allen management to go for it, absolutely. But I don't think this roster is deep enough to do that. And a lot of teams the Blazers are competing with also got better.

But it also shows you how unlikely it would have been to keep Trent, presuming trading CJ is off limits. That's the side effect of tying half of your cap space to two guards.

The Afflalo analogy is flawed. We didn't trade a 1st for Powell. We traded 2 players that management most likely was going to have to let walk, and Powell is a much better player than Afflalo. Could Trent have landed Portland a late 1st? Possibly, but then you're trading a productive third guard for a first during Dame's prime.

Ugh. And then I did all of that forgetting that we're still on the hook for $2.8M from stretching Nicholson.

The math could have worked with Gordon due to him being under contract for one more year. Plus he could legit start for us instead of being a third guard. Worst case there, Portland would have to dump Jones. But maybe Olshey didn't like a Gordon/Covington forward lineup. Maybe Orlando wanted nothing to do with Trent and his impending free agency. Maybe there was bad blood from the off-season negotiations. Who knows?

It will be interesting to see if Portland will do most of their shopping in the buyout market for they
do have an open roster spot

Believe they now have TWO open spots

Right. Two weeks to sign a player to get back to 14. Hopefully we do something better than just bring up Blevins.

Thanks for doing some of the legwork on this. My assumption is that we are avoiding the tax this year so that we CAN go in the tax next year. Frankly, if the Blazers aren't going to go into the tax next year (and potentially do so significantly) they might as well blow it up now. I don't think that's the case, and until I hear rhetoric to suggest otherwise, I think they will do whatever they can to re-sign Powell.

[The Graduate]

Its a matter of payroll logistics for Dame's extension pays him $40+ million starting in 2021-22 and ending in 2024-5
with $54 Million. CJ is signed for three years/$100 million. It's rumored Powell is going to want $50/2 and if Portland
pays him, the team is at $100 million for three guards with extensions on the horizon for Nurk and Roco. Assuming
DJJ opts out as expected, Portland indeed will be deeply in luxury taxes for the forseeable future, even if they
lose Powell.

That's too much for a backcourt, I agree, but it isn't about payroll... at least not this summer. It is about asset management and flexibility. Re-signing Powell gives you far more options: 1) Sign Powell, trade CJ for better fit; 2) Sign Powell and trade him closer to deadline for potential better fit; 3) Sign Powell and start him at the 3 next year (my least favorite option). If the team is a disaster next year and Jody wants out of the luxury tax, you make that decision at next year's deadline. Not re-signing Powell (just as not re-signing Trent would do the same... although I think Powell is the safer signing) completely hamstrings any flexibility.

[Pattycakes]

Happy for Gary to hopefully be featured heavily in TOR, but this one hurts. We better keep the Powell guy. I’m not a fan of the game to rent players for half a season, that’s not even fun to support, so hopefully not the plan at all. I didn’t even like Melo with this team originally but keeping him around more than a year proved to create an actual asset.

[Malapropism]

Powell can also be S&T. If I had to bet, that is where I would put my money.

[Roy The Natural]

Its a matter of payroll logistics for Dame's extension pays him $40+ million starting in 2021-22 and ending in 2024-5
with $54 Million. CJ is signed for three years/$100 million. It's rumored Powell is going to want $50/2 and if Portland
pays him, the team is at $100 million for three guards with extensions on the horizon for Nurk and Roco. Assuming
DJJ opts out as expected, Portland indeed will be deeply in luxury taxes for the forseeable future, even if they
lose Powell.

That's too much for a backcourt, I agree, but it isn't about payroll... at least not this summer. It is about asset management and flexibility. Re-signing Powell gives you far more options: 1) Sign Powell, trade CJ for better fit; 2) Sign Powell and trade him closer to deadline for potential better fit; 3) Sign Powell and start him at the 3 next year (my least favorite option). If the team is a disaster next year and Jody wants out of the luxury tax, you make that decision at next year's deadline. Not re-signing Powell (just as not re-signing Trent would do the same... although I think Powell is the safer signing) completely hamstrings any flexibility.

Of course this is contingent upon Powell not scoffing at staying in Portland. Which is completely plausible given the potential logjam in the scoring pecking order, and a possible want to have a larger role in the offense than he's likely to receive in Portland.