RealGM

Here is every possibility for the Blazers, Mavs, and Lakers over the final game of the season.

Just hoping you keep the Lakers in the play-in game...and the Nuggets don't look like they're gonna make it easy on you.

skywalker33 wrote:Just hoping you keep the Lakers in the play-in game...and the Nuggets don't look like they're gonna make it easy on you.

No disrespect to the Nuggets (and Jazz), which are great teams - and small market ones that I'll root for in the playoffs. But the Blazers really need to avoid the Clippers in the first round. I actually really like the Blazers' chances against the Suns - just a best fit from a roster standpoint. Nuggets and Jazz the Blazers have a puncher's chance - Dame gets hot we can pull off the upset, Jokić gets hot we might get gentleman swept. But as much talent as is on the Blazers' roster this year, the Clippers can just exploit the imbalance. The Blazers have an amazing guard lineup with Dame/CJ/Powell/Simons, and a top 3 easily center lineup (when healthy) in Nurkić/Kanter. But the forward situation is horrible. Covington is great. Jones was a bust. Playing a 6'3" Powell at small forward might work during the regular season, but I can't see it working against Kawhi/George in a seven game series.

So yeah. Give me Suns round 1. Jazz/Nuggets round 2. And ideally eff L.A.! Jazz/Nuggets round 3 with one of the small market teams upsetting Brooklyn for the 'chip. Won't happen, but it's fun to fantasize.

OK, I was buying in until you the top 3 C lineup....we'll find out soon enough

I mean just looking at the odds alone the Blazers are most likely to fall into 6th place, even if they end up losing to Denver they can still get 6th it just requires Mavs or Lakers to also lose.

I also will point out Denver will know that if they beat us the Lakers most likely get to 6th since they face an easy opponent. So Denver would maintain the 3rd seed but they would get the privilege of facing off against the Lakers in round 1.

Now if the Lakers lose the 6th seed is most likely the Blazers with one scenario where they end up 5th assuming Mavs lose. So I am not expecting full effort from Denver they seem far more concerned with avoiding the Lakers in round 1 then they care about being the 3rd seed.

These games are all starting at 6pm also, so we won't have any idea which teams are going to win until later in the game where some teams might be further ahead due to less foul calls, or one team has a 20+ point lead or something.

Well, thought I made it clear that I'm hoping the LAL get that Play-in game, but Jokic is saying it's important for him to play in all games. Whether Malone allows that too, he needs to get these guys ready for the playoffs, especially now that Murray is out,

Feels more like a where the chips fall kinda game to me.

skywalker33 wrote:Well, thought I made it clear that I'm hoping the LAL get that Play-in game, but Jokic is saying it's important for him to play in all games. Whether Malone allows that too, he needs to get these guys ready for the playoffs, especially now that Murray is out,

Feels more like a where the chips fall kinda game to me.

Right, I just mean that I think of the teams in the 5th-8th spot the Lakers are by far the most dangerous, if fully healthy they have an MVP candidate in LBJ and a top 10 player at least in AD. I think most of the top 4 would prefer not to play against them in the first round and the Nuggets are almost assured to do so if they beat Portland.

Now does that mean that the Nuggets are going to rest all their best players? No

But you might see some odd decisions in the second half or the 4th quarter especially if it looks like LA is going to win their final game.

I also will point out in the 2018-2019 season we saw Denver manipulate the standings a bit to get a more favorable matchup in the 1st and 2nd round. So this is nothing new to them and something they have done in the recent past.

monopoman wrote:

skywalker33 wrote:Well, thought I made it clear that I'm hoping the LAL get that Play-in game, but Jokic is saying it's important for him to play in all games. Whether Malone allows that too, he needs to get these guys ready for the playoffs, especially now that Murray is out,

Feels more like a where the chips fall kinda game to me.

Right, I just mean that I think of the teams in the 5th-8th spot the Lakers are by far the most dangerous, if fully healthy they have an MVP candidate in LBJ and a top 10 player at least in AD. I think most of the top 4 would prefer not to play against them in the first round and the Nuggets are almost assured to do so if they beat Portland.

Now does that mean that the Nuggets are going to rest all their best players? No

But you might see some odd decisions in the second half or the 4th quarter especially if it looks like LA is going to win their final game.

I also will point out in the 2018-2019 season we saw Denver manipulate the standings a bit to get a more favorable matchup in the 1st and 2nd round. So this is nothing new to them and something they have done in the recent past.

Nuggets fear Blazers. They rather play Lakers.

skywalker33 wrote:OK, I was buying in until you the top 3 C lineup....we'll find out soon enough

Honestly curious what center duos you have above Nurkić and Kanter. Neither are all-stars by any means, but both are in that good but not great tier. I think Portland is fortunate to have both. And if you're going up against a guy like Jokić, feeling safe that you have 12 fouls to give a game is certainly a bonus.

I would be very surprised if Dame allowed Portland to lose. Portland should be motivated to avoid the
Clippers but unless Minnesota beats Dallas, the only thing they can do is win the game and get some
well deserved rest.

d-train wrote:

monopoman wrote:

skywalker33 wrote:Well, thought I made it clear that I'm hoping the LAL get that Play-in game, but Jokic is saying it's important for him to play in all games. Whether Malone allows that too, he needs to get these guys ready for the playoffs, especially now that Murray is out,

Feels more like a where the chips fall kinda game to me.

Right, I just mean that I think of the teams in the 5th-8th spot the Lakers are by far the most dangerous, if fully healthy they have an MVP candidate in LBJ and a top 10 player at least in AD. I think most of the top 4 would prefer not to play against them in the first round and the Nuggets are almost assured to do so if they beat Portland.

Now does that mean that the Nuggets are going to rest all their best players? No

But you might see some odd decisions in the second half or the 4th quarter especially if it looks like LA is going to win their final game.

I also will point out in the 2018-2019 season we saw Denver manipulate the standings a bit to get a more favorable matchup in the 1st and 2nd round. So this is nothing new to them and something they have done in the recent past.

Nuggets fear Blazers. They rather play Lakers.

You should put that in green font, I doubt the Nuggets would Fear the Blazers more than the Lakers, stupid to suggest that

Norm2953 wrote:I would be very surprised if Dame allowed Portland to lose. Portland should be motivated to avoid the
Clippers but unless Minnesota beats Dallas, the only thing they can do is win the game and get some
well deserved rest.

Then why didn't Dame will them to win the two meetings before with their division rival, did it mean so little then ?? I agree there will be more motivation but but on any given Sunday...good luck tomorrow

If I were a betting man, which I'm not, I would wager this result by the start the playoffs:
6th - Blazers
7th - Warriors
8th - Lakers

I think the Blazers will get the win Sunday, as they simply (should) want that W more than DEN. Denver won't want to maximize effort against Portland in a fairly meaningless game, when not doing so and taking the L would certainly screw the Lakers by giving them GS, then the winner of 9 vs 10. They also get the added benefit of resting their players and not risking acquiring new injuries.

Curious what that hypothetical would result in for 1st round playoff matchups. Lakers are also far away from healthy, so I doubt anyone should fear them more than any other WC playoff team.

538 has the chances of each team winning tomorrow as follows:

Dallas 68%
Lakers 58%
Portland 57%

The corresponding probabilities of finishing in the 5th, 6th, and 7th seeds for each team are:

DAL: 92.3% / 7.7% / 0%
POR: 7.7% / 67.4% / 24.9%
LAL: 0% / 24.9% / 75.1%

These probabilities presumably don't account for the potential for some of the teams and/or opponents to intentionally tank, so make of them what you will.

skywalker33 wrote:

Norm2953 wrote:I would be very surprised if Dame allowed Portland to lose. Portland should be motivated to avoid the
Clippers but unless Minnesota beats Dallas, the only thing they can do is win the game and get some
well deserved rest.

Then why didn't Dame will them to win the two meetings before with their division rival, did it mean so little then ?? I agree there will be more motivation but but on any given Sunday...good luck tomorrow

If you think your team will be giving 100% assuming they don't rest anyone I don't know what to say 9 times out of 10 when teams meet like this if they are both fairly equal in talent give or take a bit the team that wants it more wins.

Betting against Dame is not a smart thing to do with a game that means a GREAT deal to him. **** he almost single handily won the Phoenix game in the 4th almost everything he put up went in and that game could have been a W if Covington hits his FT's. Chris Paul was also automatic and was basically the only reason Phoenix won it.

Pretty sure both Nuggets and Clippers are going to tank their games tonight.
Everyone wants to delay the possibility of facing Lakers in the playoffs as far as they could, so this idea makes hell a lot of sense.

I don't like Blazers chances against anyone in the first round, but I'd definitely want to avoid playing against Clippers there too.

red_power wrote:Pretty sure both Nuggets and Clippers are going to tank their games tonight.
Everyone wants to delay the possibility of facing Lakers in the playoffs as far as they could, so this idea makes hell a lot of sense.

I don't like Blazers chances against everyone in the first round, but I'd definitely want to avoid playing against Clippers there too.

It makes sense, but also a lot of times players will play their best because they want to go into the playoffs with some momentum and in the habit of doing the right things. So unless the coach rests people it could be a competitive game. And even then whoever plays could play hard. The Blazers won their last game with reserves a few years ago when they very possibly were trying to lose to avoid okc.

I think for denver, their effort tonight depends on their goals. If their goal is to make it as far in the playoffs as possible, they will tank tonight. This will avoid a first round matchup with the Lakers, and increases their chance of making the 2nd/3rd round.

If their goal is to maximize their chance of winning the championship, they will try to win tonight. This will lead to them playing the Lakers in Rd 1, while LeBron is still not 100%. It will be easier to beat the Lakers now than in Rd 2 or 3

Line is PDX -9.5. Vegas thinks Denver is tanking. Uni

dunlop212 wrote:Line is PDX -9.5. Vegas thinks Denver is tanking. Uni

Nah, sounds like Vegas is trying to drum up some business