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Damian Lillard: I'm Not Leaving Portland

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Re: Damian Lillard: I'm Not Leaving Portland 

Post#21 » by BNM » Thu Oct 21, 2021 5:14 pm

DusterBuster wrote:I'm definitely a bit concerned this team may have a bit of a monkey developing on it's back... After going winless in the offseason, than losing the home opener... if they lost the next game or two as well, they'll be nearing double digit losses before their first thing. That's a thing that could get into their heads... might be in Dame's head too if he's really forcing things to try and get that first HC win for Billups.


We've all seen this movie before. It's way to soon to panic or even read anything into Dame's "slow start". His first game last season was far worse. He had 9 points on 4-12 shooting.

If you remember, last season it was CJ who got off to the hot start while Dame struggled with consistency. Over the first 9 games of the season, Dame had a few good games, but also had several terrible shooting nights (4-12, 3-14, 6-17, 5-16 and 1-7, 0-8, 3-11, 1-7 from 3). He didn't really get a consistent shooting stroke going until the 10th game of the season.
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Re: Damian Lillard: I'm Not Leaving Portland 

Post#22 » by DusterBuster » Thu Oct 21, 2021 5:14 pm

Myth wrote:Would have been nice if he said it this boldly before free agency. Harder to recruit if the star seems on the fence.


Seriously. :roll:

Love Dame, but he really blew up the Blazers summer and made things harder than they already were going to be.
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Re: Damian Lillard: I'm Not Leaving Portland 

Post#23 » by BNM » Thu Oct 21, 2021 5:23 pm

DusterBuster wrote:
Myth wrote:Would have been nice if he said it this boldly before free agency. Harder to recruit if the star seems on the fence.


Seriously. :roll:

Love Dame, but he really blew up the Blazers summer and made things harder than they already were going to be.


Dame playing chess while others play checkers. If the goal is a CJ for Ben Simmons trade, Dame played it perfectly by giving Morey false hope he could do a Simmons for Lillard swap. That caused Morey to hold onto the dream of landing Dame, while asking ridiculous prices from everyone else, all while Simmons trade value continued to plummet.

In the meantime, CJ is the consummate professional and off to another hot start, thereby increasing his trade value.

A dedicated conspiracy theorist would even hypothesize that Dame, Olshey and Simmons all orchestrated this to drive down Simmons value to the point where POR doesn't have to gut their roster or mortgage their future to get Simmons.
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Re: Damian Lillard: I'm Not Leaving Portland 

Post#24 » by DusterBuster » Thu Oct 21, 2021 5:26 pm

BNM wrote:
DusterBuster wrote:
Myth wrote:Would have been nice if he said it this boldly before free agency. Harder to recruit if the star seems on the fence.


Seriously. :roll:

Love Dame, but he really blew up the Blazers summer and made things harder than they already were going to be.


Dame playing chess while others play checkers. If the goal is a CJ for Ben Simmons trade, Dame played it perfectly by giving Morey false hope he could do a Simmons for Lillard swap. That caused Morey to hold onto the dream of landing Dame, while asking ridiculous prices from everyone else, all while Simmons trade value continued to plummet.

In the meantime, CJ is the consummate professional and off to another hot start, thereby increasing his trade value.

A dedicated conspiracy theorist would even hypothesize that Dame, Olshey and Simmons all orchestrated this to drive down Simmons value to the point where POR doesn't have to gut their roster or mortgage their future to get Simmons.


Man, this is some next level tin-foil hat **** right here...
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Re: Damian Lillard: I'm Not Leaving Portland 

Post#25 » by BNM » Thu Oct 21, 2021 5:29 pm

DusterBuster wrote:
BNM wrote:
DusterBuster wrote:
Seriously. :roll:

Love Dame, but he really blew up the Blazers summer and made things harder than they already were going to be.


Dame playing chess while others play checkers. If the goal is a CJ for Ben Simmons trade, Dame played it perfectly by giving Morey false hope he could do a Simmons for Lillard swap. That caused Morey to hold onto the dream of landing Dame, while asking ridiculous prices from everyone else, all while Simmons trade value continued to plummet.

In the meantime, CJ is the consummate professional and off to another hot start, thereby increasing his trade value.

A dedicated conspiracy theorist would even hypothesize that Dame, Olshey and Simmons all orchestrated this to drive down Simmons value to the point where POR doesn't have to gut their roster or mortgage their future to get Simmons.


Man, this is some next level tin-foil hat **** right here...


Of course, I'm joking. Or am I???

Plausibility is a basic requirement of good satire.
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Re: Damian Lillard: I'm Not Leaving Portland 

Post#26 » by DusterBuster » Thu Oct 21, 2021 6:35 pm

BNM wrote:
DusterBuster wrote:
BNM wrote:
Dame playing chess while others play checkers. If the goal is a CJ for Ben Simmons trade, Dame played it perfectly by giving Morey false hope he could do a Simmons for Lillard swap. That caused Morey to hold onto the dream of landing Dame, while asking ridiculous prices from everyone else, all while Simmons trade value continued to plummet.

In the meantime, CJ is the consummate professional and off to another hot start, thereby increasing his trade value.

A dedicated conspiracy theorist would even hypothesize that Dame, Olshey and Simmons all orchestrated this to drive down Simmons value to the point where POR doesn't have to gut their roster or mortgage their future to get Simmons.


Man, this is some next level tin-foil hat **** right here...


Of course, I'm joking. Or am I???

Plausibility is a basic requirement of good satire.


Conspiracies on the internet are pretty hard to tell who's joking and who's serious anymore.
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Re: Damian Lillard: I'm Not Leaving Portland 

Post#27 » by BNM » Thu Oct 21, 2021 6:48 pm

DusterBuster wrote:
BNM wrote:
DusterBuster wrote:
Man, this is some next level tin-foil hat **** right here...


Of course, I'm joking. Or am I???

Plausibility is a basic requirement of good satire.


Conspiracies on the internet are pretty hard to tell who's joking and who's serious anymore.


Yep. I don't believe this actually happened, but I believe some people might.
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Re: Damian Lillard: I'm Not Leaving Portland 

Post#28 » by Wizenheimer » Fri Oct 22, 2021 4:40 pm

BNM wrote:
Wizenheimer wrote:Nurkic was fine last night. At this point I think you just have to accept that he's going to have a lower shooting efficiency around the basket than his size warrants; he lacks patience with the ball down low and that's not changing it appears


Do we have to accept it, and is it really that bad? Sure, it's frustrating to see a 7-footer miss bunnies at the rim, but In his six seasons in POR, Nurk's FG% from 0 - 3 feet is .617. That's not ideal for a player his size, but not as horrendous as many make it out to be.

You are right though, Nurk needs to slow down and not rush things especially when he has a smaller player on him. Nurk showed signs of that his second season in POR. He started off the year terribly, but gradually slowed down and finished the season with a career high of .643 FG% from 0 - 3 feet. Given everything else Nurk does well, it would be great if he could get back to that level of efficiency around the basket. The problem is, he's rarely been healthy long enough to get to a similar comfort level.

No doubt, a player like Enes Kanter is a better finisher near the basket than Nurk. Perhaps we got spoiled by Kanter's efficiency around the basket while in POR, but his first season here his .632 from 0 - 3 feet wasn't that much better than Nurk's .617 over 6 seasons, and below Nurk's .643 mark in 2017-18. Of course, Kanter is a liability on defense and becomes unplayable against certain matchups in the playoffs, so overall you take Nurk and his occasional brain fart near the basket. Hopefully, this season he will gradually slow down and get his shooting percentage near the basket back in that .640 - .650 range


well, last season, on the Blazers, FG% at the rim (0-3"):

CJ Elleby .750
Enes Kanter .695
Nassir Little .689
Gary Trent Jr. .673
Derrick Jones Jr. .662
Norman Powell .647
Damian Lillard .631
Harry Giles .605
CJ McCollum .596
Jusuf Nurkić .596

he was tied with CJ. Now, that's not horrible, but it isn't good either considering only 10.6% of CJ's shots were at the rim vs 56.5% of Nurkic's shots.

what makes this worse is that Nurkic's inability to finish better harms Portland efficiency on some critical play types. For instance, last season, Nurkic only averaged 0.74 points on post-ups; that was so bad he finished in the 16th percentile. Kanter averaged 1.03 points and finished in the 68th percentile. That was 18% of Nurk's offense.

he plays with Dame who is one of the best, if not best, PnR ball-handlers in the league. Nurkic averages 1.13 points as the roll man on PnR; that's 31% of his offense, yet it is only in the 52nd percentile. Compare Nurk's 1.13 points/play to other Bigs: Jarret Allen 1.41; Kevin Looney & Deandre Ayton at 1.39; Javale Mcgee & Dwight Powell at 1.38; Rudy Gobert and Deandre Jordan at 1.34; Richaun Holmes at 1.30. And every single one of those bigs is much better at post-up too

if you just account for those two play types, post-up and PnR, that is essentially half of Nurkic's offense and he doesn't even crack the 40th percentile in efficiency. That's bad

another 18% of Nurk's offense comes on cuts to the basket; he's only in the 21st percentile. And 13% of Nurk's offense came on putbacks where he was only in the 15th percentile averaging 0.90 points. Kanter averaged 1.20

he just has lousy efficiency and most of that is due to him being much worse than he should be in the paint and around the rim. Now, it's not like he shoots as much as Dame or CJ. And Portland has a bigger efficiency problem than Nurkic (either Dame shoots too little or CJ shoots too much). But Billups has said 3 or 4 times that he wants Nurkic to be a bigger part of the offense. Unless Nurk can correct his efficiency he should actually be a smaller part, at least when it comes to shooting
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Re: Damian Lillard: I'm Not Leaving Portland 

Post#29 » by BNM » Fri Oct 22, 2021 7:10 pm

Wizenheimer wrote:
BNM wrote:
Wizenheimer wrote:Nurkic was fine last night. At this point I think you just have to accept that he's going to have a lower shooting efficiency around the basket than his size warrants; he lacks patience with the ball down low and that's not changing it appears


Do we have to accept it, and is it really that bad? Sure, it's frustrating to see a 7-footer miss bunnies at the rim, but In his six seasons in POR, Nurk's FG% from 0 - 3 feet is .617. That's not ideal for a player his size, but not as horrendous as many make it out to be.

You are right though, Nurk needs to slow down and not rush things especially when he has a smaller player on him. Nurk showed signs of that his second season in POR. He started off the year terribly, but gradually slowed down and finished the season with a career high of .643 FG% from 0 - 3 feet. Given everything else Nurk does well, it would be great if he could get back to that level of efficiency around the basket. The problem is, he's rarely been healthy long enough to get to a similar comfort level.

No doubt, a player like Enes Kanter is a better finisher near the basket than Nurk. Perhaps we got spoiled by Kanter's efficiency around the basket while in POR, but his first season here his .632 from 0 - 3 feet wasn't that much better than Nurk's .617 over 6 seasons, and below Nurk's .643 mark in 2017-18. Of course, Kanter is a liability on defense and becomes unplayable against certain matchups in the playoffs, so overall you take Nurk and his occasional brain fart near the basket. Hopefully, this season he will gradually slow down and get his shooting percentage near the basket back in that .640 - .650 range


well, last season, on the Blazers, FG% at the rim (0-3"):

CJ Elleby .750
Enes Kanter .695
Nassir Little .689
Gary Trent Jr. .673
Derrick Jones Jr. .662
Norman Powell .647
Damian Lillard .631
Harry Giles .605
CJ McCollum .596
Jusuf Nurkić .596

he was tied with CJ. Now, that's not horrible, but it isn't good either considering only 10.6% of CJ's shots were at the rim vs 56.5% of Nurkic's shots.

what makes this worse is that Nurkic's inability to finish better harms Portland efficiency on some critical play types. For instance, last season, Nurkic only averaged 0.74 points on post-ups; that was so bad he finished in the 16th percentile. Kanter averaged 1.03 points and finished in the 68th percentile. That was 18% of Nurk's offense.

he plays with Dame who is one of the best, if not best, PnR ball-handlers in the league. Nurkic averages 1.13 points as the roll man on PnR; that's 31% of his offense, yet it is only in the 52nd percentile. Compare Nurk's 1.13 points/play to other Bigs: Jarret Allen 1.41; Kevin Looney & Deandre Ayton at 1.39; Javale Mcgee & Dwight Powell at 1.38; Rudy Gobert and Deandre Jordan at 1.34; Richaun Holmes at 1.30. And every single one of those bigs is much better at post-up too

if you just account for those two play types, post-up and PnR, that is essentially half of Nurkic's offense and he doesn't even crack the 40th percentile in efficiency. That's bad

another 18% of Nurk's offense comes on cuts to the basket; he's only in the 21st percentile. And 13% of Nurk's offense came on putbacks where he was only in the 15th percentile averaging 0.90 points. Kanter averaged 1.20

he just has lousy efficiency and most of that is due to him being much worse than he should be in the paint and around the rim. Now, it's not like he shoots as much as Dame or CJ. And Portland has a bigger efficiency problem than Nurkic (either Dame shoots too little or CJ shoots too much). But Billups has said 3 or 4 times that he wants Nurkic to be a bigger part of the offense. Unless Nurk can correct his efficiency he should actually be a smaller part, at least when it comes to shooting


Last season Nurk was dealing with injuries and never seemed to get into a rhythm. As I said, I'd like to see Nurk get his 0 - 3 ft FG% back in the .640 - .650 range were he was in 2017-18 (and his TS% back in tre.570 range where it was in 2018-19).

Do you have similar stats for 2017-18 and 2018-19? Those were Nurk's two relatively healthy seasons in POR, and the largest sample sizes we've seen from him. I expect Nurk was closer to, and likely above, league average for many of those stats those two seasons. His TS% in 2018-19 was above league average.

That was his best season and he was really coming on strong when he broke his leg. He's been in and out of the line up due to injuries ever since. It's only been preseason and one regular season game, but he looks the healthiest and most in shape he's been since he broke his leg. He finished last season healthy and had the entire off season to work on his conditioning. If he can be above average on his offensive efficiency, due to everything else he brings, he becomes an overall positive impact player, and that's what we need from him.

It was only one game, but he's off to a good start. 20 points on 10 FGA is incredibly efficient (but not sustainable). Nurk has a pattern of starting the season off slowly and then coming on strong. That was the pattern we saw in both 2017-18 and 2018-19. Hopefully, he can have a healthy season and return to his pre-injury form.

On a positive note, his FG% from 0 - 3 ft during his last two playoff series has been .731 and .720. It seems like he can finish well when he is focused. He just seems to have difficulty maintaining focus over an 82 game schedule.
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Re: Damian Lillard: I'm Not Leaving Portland 

Post#30 » by Wizenheimer » Sat Oct 23, 2021 3:41 am

BNM wrote:
Wizenheimer wrote:
Spoiler:
BNM wrote:
Do we have to accept it, and is it really that bad? Sure, it's frustrating to see a 7-footer miss bunnies at the rim, but In his six seasons in POR, Nurk's FG% from 0 - 3 feet is .617. That's not ideal for a player his size, but not as horrendous as many make it out to be.

You are right though, Nurk needs to slow down and not rush things especially when he has a smaller player on him. Nurk showed signs of that his second season in POR. He started off the year terribly, but gradually slowed down and finished the season with a career high of .643 FG% from 0 - 3 feet. Given everything else Nurk does well, it would be great if he could get back to that level of efficiency around the basket. The problem is, he's rarely been healthy long enough to get to a similar comfort level.

No doubt, a player like Enes Kanter is a better finisher near the basket than Nurk. Perhaps we got spoiled by Kanter's efficiency around the basket while in POR, but his first season here his .632 from 0 - 3 feet wasn't that much better than Nurk's .617 over 6 seasons, and below Nurk's .643 mark in 2017-18. Of course, Kanter is a liability on defense and becomes unplayable against certain matchups in the playoffs, so overall you take Nurk and his occasional brain fart near the basket. Hopefully, this season he will gradually slow down and get his shooting percentage near the basket back in that .640 - .650 range


well, last season, on the Blazers, FG% at the rim (0-3"):

CJ Elleby .750
Enes Kanter .695
Nassir Little .689
Gary Trent Jr. .673
Derrick Jones Jr. .662
Norman Powell .647
Damian Lillard .631
Harry Giles .605
CJ McCollum .596
Jusuf Nurkić .596

he was tied with CJ. Now, that's not horrible, but it isn't good either considering only 10.6% of CJ's shots were at the rim vs 56.5% of Nurkic's shots.

what makes this worse is that Nurkic's inability to finish better harms Portland efficiency on some critical play types. For instance, last season, Nurkic only averaged 0.74 points on post-ups; that was so bad he finished in the 16th percentile. Kanter averaged 1.03 points and finished in the 68th percentile. That was 18% of Nurk's offense.

he plays with Dame who is one of the best, if not best, PnR ball-handlers in the league. Nurkic averages 1.13 points as the roll man on PnR; that's 31% of his offense, yet it is only in the 52nd percentile. Compare Nurk's 1.13 points/play to other Bigs: Jarret Allen 1.41; Kevin Looney & Deandre Ayton at 1.39; Javale Mcgee & Dwight Powell at 1.38; Rudy Gobert and Deandre Jordan at 1.34; Richaun Holmes at 1.30. And every single one of those bigs is much better at post-up too

if you just account for those two play types, post-up and PnR, that is essentially half of Nurkic's offense and he doesn't even crack the 40th percentile in efficiency. That's bad

another 18% of Nurk's offense comes on cuts to the basket; he's only in the 21st percentile. And 13% of Nurk's offense came on putbacks where he was only in the 15th percentile averaging 0.90 points. Kanter averaged 1.20

he just has lousy efficiency and most of that is due to him being much worse than he should be in the paint and around the rim. Now, it's not like he shoots as much as Dame or CJ. And Portland has a bigger efficiency problem than Nurkic (either Dame shoots too little or CJ shoots too much). But Billups has said 3 or 4 times that he wants Nurkic to be a bigger part of the offense. Unless Nurk can correct his efficiency he should actually be a smaller part, at least when it comes to shooting


Last season Nurk was dealing with injuries and never seemed to get into a rhythm. As I said, I'd like to see Nurk get his 0 - 3 ft FG% back in the .640 - .650 range were he was in 2017-18 (and his TS% back in tre.570 range where it was in 2018-19).

Do you have similar stats for 2017-18 and 2018-19? Those were Nurk's two relatively healthy seasons in POR, and the largest sample sizes we've seen from him. I expect Nurk was closer to, and likely above, league average for many of those stats those two seasons. His TS% in 2018-19 was above league average.

That was his best season and he was really coming on strong when he broke his leg. He's been in and out of the line up due to injuries ever since. It's only been preseason and one regular season game, but he looks the healthiest and most in shape he's been since he broke his leg. He finished last season healthy and had the entire off season to work on his conditioning. If he can be above average on his offensive efficiency, due to everything else he brings, he becomes an overall positive impact player, and that's what we need from him.

It was only one game, but he's off to a good start. 20 points on 10 FGA is incredibly efficient (but not sustainable). Nurk has a pattern of starting the season off slowly and then coming on strong. That was the pattern we saw in both 2017-18 and 2018-19. Hopefully, he can have a healthy season and return to his pre-injury form.

On a positive note, his FG% from 0 - 3 ft during his last two playoff series has been .731 and .720. It seems like he can finish well when he is focused. He just seems to have difficulty maintaining focus over an 82 game schedule.


I'll post his numbers as I find them:

2017-18: post-up = 23% of his offense > 0.77 ppp > 28th percentile
2018-19: post-up = 22% of his offense > 0.86 ppp > 33rd percentile

2017-18: PnR roll man = 28% of his offense > 1.03 ppp > 38th percentile
2018-19: PnR roll man = 25% of his offense > 1.13 ppp > 60th percentile

so, he was a little better at post-up, but those are still pretty poor for one of the bigger guys in the league. He should be more dominant

in PnR he wasn't better, even in 2018-19 before his injury. He ranked in a higher percentile but his ppp was the same

now, I do not know for sure if these play-type stats account for FT's. They'd be real misleading if they didn't. Nurkic's career FT mark is 67%. That's not at Shaq level but it isn't real good either. Jokic is at 83.5%. Vucevic is at 75.6%; KAT is at 83.5%; Sabonis 72.5%; Embiid 80.8%; Gobert 63%; Ayton 75.7%

so then, except for Gobert, Nurkic would be losing some points because of low FT%. Meaning not all of his low efficiency on those two play-types was from missing shots at the rim
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Re: Damian Lillard: I'm Not Leaving Portland 

Post#31 » by BNM » Mon Oct 25, 2021 9:59 pm

Wizenheimer wrote:now, I do not know for sure if these play-type stats account for FT's. They'd be real misleading if they didn't. Nurkic's career FT mark is 67%. That's not at Shaq level but it isn't real good either. Jokic is at 83.5%. Vucevic is at 75.6%; KAT is at 83.5%; Sabonis 72.5%; Embiid 80.8%; Gobert 63%; Ayton 75.7%

so then, except for Gobert, Nurkic would be losing some points because of low FT%. Meaning not all of his low efficiency on those two play-types was from missing shots at the rim


I'm not sure that what Nurk did 7 seasons ago in DEN is really in the spirit of this discussion (that we just have to accept Nurk cannot improve his scoring efficiency). We started with his finishing around the rim and now you've expanded it to also include his FT shooting.

Ironically, the fact that Nurk has improved his FT shooting significantly during his time in POR runs counter to the point you seem to be trying to make (that we have to accept he cannot improve his efficiency). It's almost like you are trying to make him look worse than he actually is.

Yes, his career FT% is .670, but that is brought down significantly due to his poor shooting early in his career. In his first four seasons in the league, Nurk shot .574 from the FT line. In his last 4 seasons (+ 2 games this year) he has shot .749 from the line. So yes, he can, and has, improved his FT shooting/scoring efficiency.

He also has a career playoff FT% of .763, all during his time in POR. Of the other centers you mentioned, that puts him behind Jokic, Vucevic and Embiid, but ahead of KAT, Sabonis, Gobert and Ayton in career playoff FT%.
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Re: Damian Lillard: I'm Not Leaving Portland 

Post#32 » by Sinobas » Tue Oct 26, 2021 5:13 am

Maybe we should trade him afterall. What is he like 1-377 from 3 so far this year?
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Re: Damian Lillard: I'm Not Leaving Portland 

Post#33 » by Sinobas » Wed Nov 3, 2021 11:54 pm

Let's check back in on this at the end of the season. If the Blazers miss the playoffs or get bounced out of the 1st, he could well change his tune.
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Re: Damian Lillard: I'm Not Leaving Portland 

Post#34 » by Wizenheimer » Thu Nov 4, 2021 3:13 am

Dame may not be leaving Portland but his shooting touch is still on summer break
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Re: Damian Lillard: I'm Not Leaving Portland 

Post#35 » by BlazersBroncos » Thu Nov 4, 2021 5:23 pm

Sinobas wrote:Let's check back in on this at the end of the season. If the Blazers miss the playoffs or get bounced out of the 1st, he could well change his tune.


I have no doubt in my mind that he is gone summer 2022 if we miss the PO's or get bounced in R1.

And I think we have a 80%+ chance of missing the PO's or getting bounced in R1.

The scariest thing is relying on NO to be the guy to get a return for him.
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Re: Damian Lillard: I'm Not Leaving Portland 

Post#36 » by DusterBuster » Thu Nov 4, 2021 9:41 pm

This team needs a freaking shakeup so bad. Sounds like KAT is getting pretty frustrated in Minny... both teams need to make some changes... I would do CJ, Nurk and 3 FRP's for KAT and Beasley right now.
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