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Game 7: Portland vs Philadelphia 4:00pm Root+

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JasonStern
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Re: Game 7: Portland vs Philadelphia 4:00pm Root+ 

Post#21 » by JasonStern » Wed Nov 3, 2021 12:39 am

Should the Blazers bench Dame for Simons?
Clownzano's column:
Take the time to volunteer at a local youth group like the Boys and Girls Club - or don't complain when kids grow up to be Lakers fans.
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Re: Game 7: Portland vs Philadelphia 4:00pm Root+ 

Post#22 » by zzaj » Wed Nov 3, 2021 12:44 am

So far I'm not seeing how getting rid of Stotts has helped anything. I guess maybe Billups likes to hug Nurkic more...
Coaching change usually translates to worse record/team.

These are the type of games that have me concerned as a Blazer fan--where the tendency is to regress into hero ball. Overall, the percentages weren't actually THAT terrible. These are games the Blazers HAVE to win if they want a chance at the postseason.

But it's only November. I'm not going to be judging anything either way until at least January.
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Re: Game 7: Portland vs Philadelphia 4:00pm Root+ 

Post#23 » by monopoman » Wed Nov 3, 2021 2:22 am

zzaj wrote:So far I'm not seeing how getting rid of Stotts has helped anything. I guess maybe Billups likes to hug Nurkic more...
Coaching change usually translates to worse record/team.

These are the type of games that have me concerned as a Blazer fan--where the tendency is to regress into hero ball. Overall, the percentages weren't actually THAT terrible. These are games the Blazers HAVE to win if they want a chance at the postseason.

But it's only November. I'm not going to be judging anything either way until at least January.


I'm not sure we are watching the same games, while we are seeing the team revert more to the Stotts style on the road at home they have had a much better intensity on the defensive end, and have been much more active.

I guess if you missed the home games so far and only saw the road games you would think it was the exact same team as it was under Stotts more or less.

Most of our problems are coming due to Lillard having some rough shooting to start the season. Even then the biggest problem has been the road where it seems like we have not been able to stay as hungry on the defensive end. The defense is almost night and day better than it was last year at least at home so far, hopefully we see the Blazers do this type of thing on the road soon.

Keep in mind this isn't like high school ball where a coach can easily bench any player who doesn't tow the line. In the NBA coaches have far less power unless their name is Greg Popovich or something.
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Re: Game 7: Portland vs Philadelphia 4:00pm Root+ 

Post#24 » by Wizenheimer » Wed Nov 3, 2021 4:27 pm

monopoman wrote:
zzaj wrote:So far I'm not seeing how getting rid of Stotts has helped anything. I guess maybe Billups likes to hug Nurkic more...
Coaching change usually translates to worse record/team.

These are the type of games that have me concerned as a Blazer fan--where the tendency is to regress into hero ball. Overall, the percentages weren't actually THAT terrible. These are games the Blazers HAVE to win if they want a chance at the postseason.

But it's only November. I'm not going to be judging anything either way until at least January.


I'm not sure we are watching the same games, while we are seeing the team revert more to the Stotts style on the road at home they have had a much better intensity on the defensive end, and have been much more active.

I guess if you missed the home games so far and only saw the road games you would think it was the exact same team as it was under Stotts more or less.

Most of our problems are coming due to Lillard having some rough shooting to start the season. Even then the biggest problem has been the road where it seems like we have not been able to stay as hungry on the defensive end. The defense is almost night and day better than it was last year at least at home so far, hopefully we see the Blazers do this type of thing on the road soon.

Keep in mind this isn't like high school ball where a coach can easily bench any player who doesn't tow the line. In the NBA coaches have far less power unless their name is Greg Popovich or something.


defensive rankings under Stotts:

2012-13 - 26th
2013-14 - 16th
2014-15 - 10th
2015-16 - 20th
2016-17 - 24th
2017-18 - 8th
2018-19 - 16th
2019-20 - 28th
2020-21 - 29th

2021-22 - 21st

if you want to go by average, for Stotts, it was 20th; one slot better than the current team. And it's only that bad because Olshey incompetently assembled the two worst defensive rosters imaginable the 2 last seasons of Stotts.

the actual rating is lower this year, but it's first season under the new defensive rules that allow defenders a hell of a lot more contact than any year under Stotts. It was also the shortest off-season in NBA history. And there is a new basketball being used this year that almost no player likes

teams don't get to play 82 games on the road. Portland started with a 4-1 home/road advantage. And they played teams that ranked 8th, 16th, 20th, 27th, & 27th in offensive rating...an average of 20th. So they weren't tested much until they went on the road the last 2 games. Portland has a defensive rating of 109.4. In their 3 road games they've given up ratings of 105.0, 131.5, & 124.4. Portland went from 6th in defensive rating after the Clippers game at home to their current 21st ranking....

which illustrates the folly of reaching many conclusions this early. There can be extremely wide statistical variance because of the tiny sample sizes. We need to wait till the halfway point before reaching conclusions. That's a generic statement. In Portland's case, at 40 games into the season, they will have had a 25-15 home/road advantage. Then, 10 of their next 12 games will be on the road. We'll have good gauges by then

****************************************************

I don't agree about the "night and day" difference in defense. For one reason, as I just detailed, welcome to road games. More than that though is If you assign blame for the last 2 years of Stotts defense to Olshey, because of crappy roster building (where the blame should be assigned) and disregard those years...in the first 7 years of Stotts, Portland's average defensive ranking was 15th. That's in the top half of the league. Billups' defense is getting a perception boost because of recency bias against last year's historically bad defense

so yeah, compared to last year's defense, this year's defense with the new rules, new basketball, and short off-season is much much better. But it would just about have to be. I think Stotts had lost the team, especially on defense, by half-way thru last season. And when your bench mob starts with Kanter-Melo-Simons the chance for good defense is gone

personally, I think the Blazer defense will be much better than last year's defense (it couldn't be worse) but I'm not convinced at all it will be better than the average defense under the first 7 years of Stotts. Maybe, but getting into the top half of the league will be a challenge

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