What's the Blazers Headline Aug 1st?

[DusterBuster]

Call your shot and place your bets now...

The headlines explainations:

1) Blazers pick lands in the top 4 and they get the Pelicans lottery pick, make some solid mid-level FA signings or lopsided trades into cap space / TPE's.

2) Blazers lose Pelicans pick (either it going top 4 or they make the playoffs), they aren't able to do much in FA with trades or signings, Dame (or the team / mutual decision) decide it's time to move Lillard somewhere else.

3) Blazers pull off a deal (or multiple deals) during the draft sending out their picks (or drafting for another team) along with some cap space/players to get Dame a legit 2nd All-Star teammate.

If you pick None of the Above, give me your headline and what the explanation of it is. Then we can come back Aug 1st and see what poll answer was the closest or who nailed it with Door #4.

[JasonStern]

* Pelicans make the playoffs and keep their pick
* Whiff on free agency
* Draft the best player available
* Overpay Simons
* Sign... whoever you can?
* Keep Dame
* Try to spin it as a win

[DusterBuster]

I'm going the big-bet unlikely optimistic route that the Blazers get lucky and end up with a Top 4 pick. Pretty low probability, so long betting odds, but good return if it hits.

I think Jason's timeline probably is the most realistic / worst payout odds.

[b33nine]

Expecting a youth movement going into next year. Just to not get my hopes up I expect either the Pelicans will make the playoffs and that pick will convey to the Hornets, or they'll get lucky and jump into the top 5. We'll end up with a pick around #10 and end up with a Meyers Leonard/Zach Collins level prospect.
How long did it take to go from the Jailblazers era to Roy/Aldridge again?

[DusterBuster]

Expecting a youth movement going into next year. Just to not get my hopes up I expect either the Pelicans will make the playoffs and that pick will convey to the Hornets, or they'll get lucky and jump into the top 5. We'll end up with a pick around #10 and end up with a Meyers Leonard/Zach Collins level prospect.
How long did it take to go from the Jailblazers era to Roy/Aldridge again?

Seemed a lot longer at the time than it really was. I guess it depends when you consider the "start" of the JailBlazers. When just the legal problems started was like 1998ish - JR Ryder / Damon stuff, but no one really gave a **** because the team was good. The jokes about the JailBlazers really started around like 2002/2003 when the team was getting worse and needed to be blown up to be rebuilt around ZBo (and the legal problems continued). That was tore down and rebuilt with Roy/Aldridge in 2006.

So... you're looking around 3-4 years maybe if just talking about the rebuild time between when Sheed was moved to when Roy and Aldridge were drafted.

[The Sebastian Express]

Expecting a youth movement going into next year. Just to not get my hopes up I expect either the Pelicans will make the playoffs and that pick will convey to the Hornets, or they'll get lucky and jump into the top 5. We'll end up with a pick around #10 and end up with a Meyers Leonard/Zach Collins level prospect.
How long did it take to go from the Jailblazers era to Roy/Aldridge again?

Seemed a lot longer at the time than it really was. I guess it depends when you consider the "start" of the JailBlazers. When just the legal problems started was like 1998ish - JR Ryder / Damon stuff, but no one really gave a **** because the team was good. The jokes about the JailBlazers really started around like 2002/2003 when the team was getting worse and needed to be blown up to be rebuilt around ZBo (and the legal problems continued). That was tore down and rebuilt with Roy/Aldridge in 2006.

So... you're looking around 3-4 years maybe if just talking about the rebuild time between when Sheed was moved to when Roy and Aldridge were drafted.

It wasn't even actually that long. We traded Rasheed in February of 2004. We drafted Roy and LMA in the summer of 2006. It was two years and four months to go from one era to the next, with only really Zach leftover. And Zach was gone the next summer.

[The Sebastian Express]

I'm going with none of the above and am going to use my all the optimism in the world to say we S&T Nurkic for either a higher-salaried Mitchell Robinson or Ayton that their teams don't want to pay plus we sign Miles Bridges to an offersheet the Hornets don't want to pay and we keep our top pick.

I don't care if wizenheimer comes in here and tells me this isn't technically possible even using Nurkic in a sign and trade. I don't care. I WILL WISH FOR IT UNTIL THE DAY COMES.

Either that or we sign Bradley Beal to a 30+ million contract if he decides he doesn't want to stay with that roster and doesn't opt in.

[JasonStern]

Read on Twitter

[Norm2953]

I suspect it will be none of the above.

Portland will have two lottery picks after the Pelicans lose in the play-in games. They with two mid lottery picks
will draft two 19 year olds who will need time to develop. Portland will continue to re-work their roster by getting
younger and at some point before training camp, it will be clear Portland is head towards a re-build that will take
several seasons. We will see a Dame trade that brings back more young pieces as the core group is centered on
Anfernee Simons' timeline.

[dunlop212]

I will take Cleveland's route. Keep your aging star (Love for Cleveland and Lillard for PDX), make at least one good lottery pick (like Mobley), just make sensible personnel moves. Don't waste money on aging stars. Maybe get lucky matching Ayton. Make moves on Portland's schedule, not Lillard's.

[Wizenheimer]

Make moves on Portland's schedule, not Lillard's.

I think they are the same right now

[JRoy]

Blazers land top 4 pick, offer that pick and PEL lotto pick for Holmgren whose knees promptly explode when he arrives at PDX.

[m0ng0]

Blazers trade Lilliard for lotto picks in 22 and 23. Rebuild is ON! I just don't see anything but a t treadmill unless we trade him...

[Pattycakes]

If done responsibly we could have flipped the entire roster into enough 1st rounders to surround Nas/Ant & a couple of the other low key young studs we have (Greg brown anyone?) regardless, I still don’t know how we didn’t get one for Norman, and that truly makes me fear what’s out there for Nurk and to a lesser extent, Dame.

This could go really well or really bad, and it’s hard to tell which way we’re gonna go.

[GEE]

OTHER. (This poll is tough to assemble due to there being so many unknown variables, including deceptive ping-pong balls, resulting in each choice having at least two of those variables)

How it looks to me is... "Have your cake and eat it too"... There's your Headline! In short, Continue the rebuild, while letting Dame decide his own future. The Biggest Headline(or variable) will be when and if Dame signs that extension. A big thing to also consider is, what other team in the league would be willing to pay it?

Cronin has operated fairly quietly IMO, but gave us all a clue of what he planned to do very early on(I forget the funny word he used at the time). I think his last statement pre-DL was like, he didn't want to do a complete tear-down. Well... he was honest both times. What happens next I have no clue honestly, but your poll does show that there is still a ton of moving parts, lots of big decisions still to be made, like Nurkic for one, Simons being two. I think we start there. Get them signed to fair, long-term deals.

Much still revolves around Dame, so what we do with the draft picks may be the biggest decision the franchise will need to make: Do you use those picks(two lottery hopefully) on players to put around your future stars, or do you use them in a win-now trade and BPAs. Will Dame have the say so, to do so?

So, my hope now is that we do hit on both lotto picks, use them wisely and quietly build around Simons and Nurkic. Let Dame stick around as long as he likes, I would in no way mortgage the future for some short-term, do it for Dame plan. I also will concede that it's totally possible Simmons just wasn't the answer for this team going forward after proper vetting by Cronin. But I do think the market for Dame is shrinking, and even less is the number of teams that will pay him $50 per. I wouldn't. Regardless we will see just how important both money and winning are to Dame, in due time.

Dame / Simons is still a terrible pairing, and I think it will ultimately hold up any real chance of winning it all, but Cronin will hopefully focus longer term. Also for your consideration... ANT is too good to be our 6th man, right?

It seems Dame WILL continue to decide our timeline somewhat, but hopefully not the direction we go. If we can win one with him than great, but I absolutely would not pay that extension. After some time to digest all the changes, the result actually shows some real potential I think; we have choices again, and if it were up to me, I would simply keep moving forward, and not let Dame decide what we do next.

Dame / DSJ(or)Bledsoe
Hart / ANT(6th man?)
Little /
Winslow /
Nurkic /

Keon / MAC(vet min?) / cj / Brown / Watford / 2 lottos in '22

[JasonStern]

Cronin calls the Bucks.
Hey, we got a lottery pick and your 2025 pick. Want to trade Giannis?
(gets hung up on).
Darn it.

Cronin calls the Nets.
Hey, we got a lottery pick and a 2025 pick. Want to trade Durant?
(gets hung up on).
Darn it.

Cronin calls the Nets about Simmons. They don't pick up.
Darn it.

Cronin calls the Nuggets.
Hey, we got a lottery pick and a 2025 pick. Want to trade Jokic?
(gets hung up on).
Darn it.

Cronin calls the Lakers.
Hey, we got a lottery pick and a 2025 pick. Want to trade LeBron?
(gets hung up on).
Darn it.

Cronin calls the Lakers about Davis. They don't pick up.
Darn it.

Cronin calls the Mavericks.
Hey, we got a lottery pick and a 2025 pick. Want to trade Doncic?
(gets hung up on).
Darn it.

Cronin calls the 76ers.
Hey, we got a lottery pick and a 2025 pick. Want to trade Embiid?
(gets hung up on).
Darn it.

Cronin calls the 76ers about James Harden.
They don't pick up.
Darn it.

Cronin calls the Heat.
Hey, we got a lottery pick and a 2025 pick. Want to trade Butler?
(gets hung up on).
Darn it.

Cronin calls the Steph Curry.
Hey, we got a lottery pick and a 2025 pick. Want to trade Steph ?
(gets hung up on).
Darn it.

Cronin calls the Clippers about Klay Thompson.
They don't pick up.
Darn it.

Cronin calls the Clippers.
Hey, we got a lottery pick and a 2025 pick. Want to trade Kawhi?
(gets hung up on).
Darn it.

Cronin calls the Clippers about Paul George.
They don't pick up.
Darn it.

.
.
.

Blazers end up trading both picks for a Jerami Grant, John Collins tier player to appease Dame to mixed reviews. I'll probably support it short-term. Makes some sense given limited information. Ultimately it will fail, and everyone will point out with the benefit of hindsight how that lottery pick could have landed a perennial all-star after one or more all-stars get drafted at that spot or later.
Darn it.

And with the 38th pick in the NBA draft, the Portland Trailblazers select a 6'3" shooting guard. Let's randomly say Jean Montero.
Darn it.

[Blazers98]

Dame must have sanctioned all these moves. I wonder if he has been talking with a friend that just so happens to be an all star level friend to join him in PDX.

[sisibilio]

I'm going with none of the above and am going to use my all the optimism in the world to say we S&T Nurkic for either a higher-salaried Mitchell Robinson or Ayton that their teams don't want to pay plus we sign Miles Bridges to an offersheet the Hornets don't want to pay and we keep our top pick.

I don't care if wizenheimer comes in here and tells me this isn't technically possible even using Nurkic in a sign and trade. I don't care. I WILL WISH FOR IT UNTIL THE DAY COMES.

Either that or we sign Bradley Beal to a 30+ million contract if he decides he doesn't want to stay with that roster and doesn't opt in.

I'd rather keep Nurk over Robinson tbh, and if Phoenix trades Ayton they'd look for someone like Sabonis.
Hornets can and will match whatever offer Bridges get, the year Ball is up for extension Hayward comes off the books.
Hate to be that guy.

[monopoman]

I'm going the big-bet unlikely optimistic route that the Blazers get lucky and end up with a Top 4 pick. Pretty low probability, so long betting odds, but good return if it hits.

I think Jason's timeline probably is the most realistic / worst payout odds.

It's not that low of a probability worst case the Blazers have a 20ish% chance at a top 4 pick. 1 out of 5 isn't great but it's not bad this isn't like 10 years ago when the best odds were weighted heavily towards the worst 4 or 5 teams.

http://Tankathon.com is the best site to keep track of who owes what pick and chance to get a top 4 pick.

[BNM]

I'm going the big-bet unlikely optimistic route that the Blazers get lucky and end up with a Top 4 pick. Pretty low probability, so long betting odds, but good return if it hits.

I think Jason's timeline probably is the most realistic / worst payout odds.

It's not that low of a probability worst case the Blazers have a 20ish% chance at a top 4 pick. 1 out of 5 isn't great but it's not bad this isn't like 10 years ago when the best odds were weighted heavily towards the worst 4 or 5 teams.

http://Tankathon.com is the best site to keep track of who owes what pick and chance to get a top 4 pick.

Interesting site. They actually project that NOP will finish with a worse record than POR, with NOP having a 26.3% chance of a top 4 pick and POR at 20.3% - so that's a 46.6% chance of getting a top 4 pick.

I just ran their lottery simulator 10 times. We ended up with either the 8th and 9th or 9th and 10th picks 7 times, with the 4th pick once, the 2nd pick once and with picks 1 and 2 once (lol - too good to even hope for).

Edit: oops never mind. If the pick is top 4, NOP keeps it. The best we can hope for is our pick breaks into the top 4 and the NOP pick ends up top 10.