Simons vs Lillard?

[Upperclass]

Simons might be Steph Curry.. The effect he has on a team's morale and focus is just incredible

[Dame Lizard]

Holy cow... somehow I was today years old when I realized Donovan Mitchell is only 6'1" and smaller than Dame...

I still think that idea is a realistic scenario if Mitchell asks out since he fits with the rest of the core's timeline a lot better... but... considerably less interested in it knowing that now.

My preference in a perfect world would still be getting Jalen Brown for Dame.

Jalen Brown has been my ideal realistic candidate in recent months too.

The issue now is that Boston is on red hot form and unless they exit in the first round, they'll probably stick with their current formula.

The good thing about resigning Ant and at least trialling Dame + Ant, is that Ant can be built around at PG if Dame gets traded.

So if the undersized combo guard backcourt doesn't work with Dame/Ant, then Ant is obviously a lot better to build around than CJ.

[DusterBuster]

I'm probably just riding the high of this weird Blazers turnaround - but I'm kinda getting stoked to see what Dame and Ant can do together.

Ant ain't CJ... it's still a short backcourt and I'm not excited for that again, but that kid is so much more dynamic than CJ... he's got that Dame "I'm gonna rip your heart out" edge to him, it could be really fun watching both of those guys.

[wjun15]

What if you could a trade like Lillard and Little to the Celtics for Jayson Tatum. When we have Simons, Hart, and Tatum starting 1-3, and our roster would be on a similar timeline age wise. We also avoid paying old Lillard a supermax.

if Portland had Tatum would you trade him for Dame?

No, because I'm ready to move on from Dame, and Tatum is much more in line with the rest of our roster. But Dame is considered a top 10 player when healthy, and I've never seen Tatum on a top 10 list. A team might be willing to give up younger pieces if they are in "win now" mode, like how the Celtics traded for an aging Ray Allen.

The Celtics had pierce, and paired with kg, those are two hall of famers at the end of their primes. all of them were 1~2 yrs apart in age.

Celtics core consists of jaylen brown Derrick white, smart, and Robert Williams who are on Tatums timeline. the trade makes no sense for celtics. Tatum is 23 years old. Dame was nowhere near a top 10 player at that age. Tatums their franchise player and all star, and to give up Tatums 11/12 years for Dame who has maybe 2/3 yrs left of great basketball (one can argue he's already on his decline based on this year plus injury) for 2/3 yrs competing against great east teams like BKN PHIL MIA CHI MIL it'd be insane to trade Tatum for Dame.

a Dame smart Jaylen combo will get you competing for a top 6 seed and is clearly not win now.

[wjun15]

I'm probably just riding the high of this weird Blazers turnaround - but I'm kinda getting stoked to see what Dame and Ant can do together.

Ant ain't CJ... it's still a short backcourt and I'm not excited for that again, but that kid is so much more dynamic than CJ... he's got that Dame "I'm gonna rip your heart out" edge to him, it could be really fun watching both of those guys.

one thing he does better than Dame is that he's always taking good shots. Dame takes horrible shots often times and shoots off balanced too much but Simons just plays so smart and never forces.

[Wizenheimer]

I'm probably just riding the high of this weird Blazers turnaround - but I'm kinda getting stoked to see what Dame and Ant can do together.

Ant ain't CJ... it's still a short backcourt and I'm not excited for that again, but that kid is so much more dynamic than CJ... he's got that Dame "I'm gonna rip your heart out" edge to him, it could be really fun watching both of those guys.

one thing he does better than Dame is that he's always taking good shots. Dame takes horrible shots often times and shoots off balanced too much but Simons just plays so smart and never forces.

the previous 4 seasons, Dame's TS% has been:

.594
.588
.627
.623

and he's done that against a barrage of traps and doubles; against opposing defenses that have twisted to a total focus on Dame when he's on the floor. Those TS% marks are not the marks of a player who takes a lot of bad shots. Dame is an elite scorer who makes tough shots because defenses work hard to not allow him open shots. Simons has not faced that type of defensive focus. He might by the end of the season

for comparison. Ant's TS% last year and this year:

.589
.582

[The Sebastian Express]

I'm probably just riding the high of this weird Blazers turnaround - but I'm kinda getting stoked to see what Dame and Ant can do together.

Ant ain't CJ... it's still a short backcourt and I'm not excited for that again, but that kid is so much more dynamic than CJ... he's got that Dame "I'm gonna rip your heart out" edge to him, it could be really fun watching both of those guys.

one thing he does better than Dame is that he's always taking good shots. Dame takes horrible shots often times and shoots off balanced too much but Simons just plays so smart and never forces.

the previous 4 seasons, Dame's TS% has been:

.594
.588
.627
.623

and he's done that against a barrage of traps and doubles; against opposing defenses that have twisted to a total focus on Dame when he's on the floor. Those TS% marks are not the marks of a player who takes a lot of bad shots. Dame is an elite scorer who makes tough shots because defenses work hard to not allow him open shots. Simons has not faced that type of defensive focus. He might by the end of the season

for comparison. Ant's TS% last year and this year:

.589
.582

Thank you for bringing some pushback against this narrative. Ant has shown some great signs. And Ant has not faced anywhere near the level of defensive intensity and focus as Dame.

[BNM]

I'm probably just riding the high of this weird Blazers turnaround - but I'm kinda getting stoked to see what Dame and Ant can do together.

Ant ain't CJ... it's still a short backcourt and I'm not excited for that again, but that kid is so much more dynamic than CJ... he's got that Dame "I'm gonna rip your heart out" edge to him, it could be really fun watching both of those guys.

one thing he does better than Dame is that he's always taking good shots. Dame takes horrible shots often times and shoots off balanced too much but Simons just plays so smart and never forces.

the previous 4 seasons, Dame's TS% has been:

.594
.588
.627
.623

and he's done that against a barrage of traps and doubles; against opposing defenses that have twisted to a total focus on Dame when he's on the floor. Those TS% marks are not the marks of a player who takes a lot of bad shots. Dame is an elite scorer who makes tough shots because defenses work hard to not allow him open shots. Simons has not faced that type of defensive focus. He might by the end of the season

for comparison. Ant's TS% last year and this year:

.589
.582

The difference in TS% is not due to shot selection, or even FG shooting. It's FTr. Ant is a better 3-point shooter (percentage wise) and is a better 2-point shooter than Dame was at a comparable age. Dame gets to the line much more than Ant and FTs are still the most efficient way to score. Dame has had multiple seasons of => 10 FTA/G (and multiple seasons making more than 9 FT/G). Ant is currently at 1.6 FT/G on 1.8 FTA/G. That's the entire reason Dame's TS% (before this season) has been higher than Ant's.

Ant has been a better 3-point shooter than Dame for the last two seasons and finishing at the rim in traffic has been his biggest improvement this season. The next step is to learn how to draw contact and get to the FT line more. He's a good, and improving, FT shooter, but need to get to the line more for his scoring efficiency to top peak Lillard.

Edit: Since the first of the year (when Ant became a full time starter), his TS% was .615 in January and is currently at .601 in February. This in spite of his relatively low FTr. He averaged 2.5 FT/G on 2.8 FTA/G in January and is averaging 2.0 FT/G on 2.5 FTA/G in February. If he can double his current FTr, he could eclipse peak Dame in TS%. If he tripled his FTR (comparable to Dame), he would be a much more efficient scorer than peak Dame. Of course the sample size is small, but also keep in mind that Ant is currently the same age that Dame was as a rookie.

[Upperclass]

Blazers are looking very similar to the early warriors teams on both offense and defense.. high-scoring unstoppable lead guard.. accurate shooting, plus defending SG, do it all playmaking, defensive SF/PF, post guy who can screen and roll.. a litany of role players who can contribute on any night.. its impressive and they may not want to undo the cohesion this group is showing but bringing back Dame.. who very well may be Monta Ellis at this point in his career.. Simons should clearly be the one to control the offense full-go as he doesnt make wrong decisions on the court.. which is just wild

[Norm2953]

I'd agree with the notion that Dame/Ant will be the starting back court next season and it will be interesting
to see how Dame plays with this group. Trade offers for Dame will be weak until he shows he's fully recovered
and healthy.

Dame has never been known as a player who liked to push the ball. The Dame/CJ back court rarely tried to
get easy baskets in transition. It might be interesting to see him as the trailer with a transition oriented roster
for he's going to get a lot of open looks.

I could envision Dame acting more like the off guard for Portland is running their offense much better with
Ant. Ball movement is crisp and Nurk seems as engaged as he's been in years. One can imagine Dame playing
much like Donovan Mitchell in his new off guard role.

[Norm2953]

Blazers are looking very similar to the early warriors teams on both offense and defense.. high-scoring unstoppable lead guard.. accurate shooting, plus defending SG, do it all playmaking, defensive SF/PF, post guy who can screen and roll.. a litany of role players who can contribute on any night.. its impressive and they may not want to undo the cohesion this group is showing but bringing back Dame.. who very well may be Monta Ellis at this point in his career.. Simons should clearly be the one to control the offense full-go as he doesnt make wrong decisions on the court.. which is just wild

Portland would have to find their Klay Thompson and while Winslow has effective, he's more like a former Blazer
(Ruben Patterson) than Draymond Green.

I'm hopeful Portland will be able to fill their needs in the off season with 1-2 lottery picks and TPE. Team really needs more
size up front for they literally have nobody behind Nurk and have played most of the season with a still developing Nassir
Little, undersized Powell (traded) and a former two way player Trenton Watford.

[monopoman]

There is no way this team considers trading Dame, until it is shown that the Anfernee+Dame backcourt can't work. At that point something might happen, people continuously talk about the Monta Ellis situation, but that is not similar here the best version of Monta pales in comparison to even a more moderately good season from Dame.

Monta never made an all-star game and never scored with the efficiency of Dame. **** Monta's best season efficiency wise is only slightly better than Rookie Dame.

[MotorCade2]

What kind of contract is Simons going to get this offseason? Is he a max guy? Are you guys going to match a max contract offer?

[Wizenheimer]

Spoiler:

one thing he does better than Dame is that he's always taking good shots. Dame takes horrible shots often times and shoots off balanced too much but Simons just plays so smart and never forces.

the previous 4 seasons, Dame's TS% has been:

.594
.588
.627
.623

and he's done that against a barrage of traps and doubles; against opposing defenses that have twisted to a total focus on Dame when he's on the floor. Those TS% marks are not the marks of a player who takes a lot of bad shots. Dame is an elite scorer who makes tough shots because defenses work hard to not allow him open shots. Simons has not faced that type of defensive focus. He might by the end of the season

for comparison. Ant's TS% last year and this year:

.589
.582

The difference in TS% is not due to shot selection, or even FG shooting. It's FTr. .

duhhh....damn right it is. Drawing fouls and converting from the FT line is a critical part of the game. It's simply inaccurate to say that FT rate is not due to shot selection. It is absolutely welded to shot selection. Shot selection is about choices and about style. Dame has chosen to not avoid contact (unlike CJ and Ant); instead, he seeks it out, at times, especially on drives into the paint. That's a style. The same style as just about all the greats have had

shooting percentages are not the same as shooting efficiency. And shooting efficiency is essentially the same as scoring efficiency. CJ usually had better shooting percentages; He almost always had a better eFG% than Dame (like Ant), but eFG% is a flawed craptastic stat because it doesn't account for FT's. CJ was/is a couple of tiers below Dame in shooting efficiency. And it was because of FT's

Dame's style has evolved too, and I think a large part of that was due to how much defenses focused on him. He got no air and the team ran almost no off-ball offense for him designed to create that air. Yet, despite always being the focus and always drawing the other team's best defender, and always having to create his own offense, as well as the team's, he was able to post the scoring efficiency he did the previous couple of seasons. To be sure, at times that produced some questionable shots, but even with those questionable shots, and all the defensive resistance, Dame was still elite as a scorer

more than that though was that CJ, and the rest of the Blazers other than Dame, were never able to overcome Portland's Achilles Heel. And that was that when a team, especially in the playoffs, had a game plan of 'stop-Dame-at-all-costs', it succeeded, time and time again. That's because CJ, with his better shooting percentages could not score at the rate Dame could and could not run the offense with any consistency. If CJ would have averaged 7 or 8 points from the FT line at those times, instead of 0,1 or 2, the result could have been different

That's where Simons may very well be better than CJ. He may, in the next season or two, be good enough that teams will not be able to double and trap Dame constantly while sliding a weak defender to Ant, like they always did with CJ. Ant has already shown better court vision than CJ (at least he has when driving right), and he seems to move quicker, dribble less, and make faster decisions. But yes, he really needs to dramatically improve his FT rate. He has way too much CJ on his dribble drives. The problem is, (and I had this debate with CJ fans for years) is that if CJ is a template, his fans kept assuring me that next season, always next season, CJ would improve his FT rate...and he never did. Hopefully, Ant will be different but it's show-me time, not trust-me time

[Wizenheimer]

What kind of contract is Simons going to get this offseason? Is he a max guy? Are you guys going to match a max contract offer?

I'll make a deal and trade you an opinion for an opinion:

Portland will match any contract offer for Simons. There is absolutely not a doubt about it

now, answer me this: will Detroit renounce the rights to Bagley to create cap-space?

[PDXKnight]

What kind of contract is Simons going to get this offseason? Is he a max guy? Are you guys going to match a max contract offer?

I'll make a deal and trade you an opinion for an opinion:

Portland will match any contract offer for Simons. There is absolutely not a doubt about it

now, answer me this: will Detroit renounce the rights to Bagley to create cap-space?

Another question: would or should portland dare offer a budding star less than the rookie max knowing that said offer could create some long term grudges?

[MotorCade2]

What kind of contract is Simons going to get this offseason? Is he a max guy? Are you guys going to match a max contract offer?

I'll make a deal and trade you an opinion for an opinion:

Portland will match any contract offer for Simons. There is absolutely not a doubt about it

now, answer me this: will Detroit renounce the rights to Bagley to create cap-space?

Yeah I figured, just asking to get an idea if you guys are expecting to max him or not. Smart move keeping Simons. I think he will be an allstar soon. Bagley apparently has a massive caphold so we will most likely renounce his rights and then try to sign him to a smaller deal. We can always create capspace other ways too. I am sure our front office has a plan in place. They didnt' trade for Bagley to eat up all of our capspace with his massive caphold.

[MotorCade2]

What kind of contract is Simons going to get this offseason? Is he a max guy? Are you guys going to match a max contract offer?

I'll make a deal and trade you an opinion for an opinion:

Portland will match any contract offer for Simons. There is absolutely not a doubt about it

now, answer me this: will Detroit renounce the rights to Bagley to create cap-space?

Another question: would or should portland dare offer a budding star less than the rookie max knowing that said offer could create some long term grudges?

Well he is averaging only 17ppg so he is right on that fringe breakout point. I am confident he is going to be 20+ppg next year but there is some justification for not giving him the max, especially when most teams can't offer him the max. If it were me I would play it safe and give him the max but then again, I am not the Blazers front office. They have all the leverage to give him less then the max too though and he will be locked up for years so even if he is offended I am sure he will get over it in the coming years.

[DusterBuster]

I'll make a deal and trade you an opinion for an opinion:

Portland will match any contract offer for Simons. There is absolutely not a doubt about it

now, answer me this: will Detroit renounce the rights to Bagley to create cap-space?

Another question: would or should portland dare offer a budding star less than the rookie max knowing that said offer could create some long term grudges?

Well he is averaging only 17ppg so he is right on that fringe breakout point. I am confident he is going to be 20+ppg next year but there is some justification for not giving him the max, especially when most teams can't offer him the max. If it were me I would play it safe and give him the max but then again, I am not the Blazers front office. They have all the leverage to give him less then the max too though and he will be locked up for years so even if he is offended I am sure he will get over it in the coming years.

It's kinda silly to just point to his raw PPG without any context. The early part of the season when he was a 4th guard behind Dame/CJ/Powell does a lot to really to bring down that number. I trust Blazers FO knows he's clearly much more than a 17ppg scorer.

I think the Blazers are playing it right to just let the market dictate his value for a little bit right at the start of FA and see what - if anything - that yields for him. It's possible that might result in nothing because rival teams will likely be convinced (rightfully so) that the Blazers would match anything to keep him. Then it's just the Blazers bidding against themselves to an extent. I think anything in the low 20's will be a win for the Blazers, but I won't be the least bit surprised to see a full max deal for him either. I know people have had that number 20 stuck in their minds now for a bit, but I think he's going to get considerably more than that.

[BNM]

I'll make a deal and trade you an opinion for an opinion:

Portland will match any contract offer for Simons. There is absolutely not a doubt about it

now, answer me this: will Detroit renounce the rights to Bagley to create cap-space?

Another question: would or should portland dare offer a budding star less than the rookie max knowing that said offer could create some long term grudges?

Well he is averaging only 17ppg so he is right on that fringe breakout point. I am confident he is going to be 20+ppg next year but there is some justification for not giving him the max, especially when most teams can't offer him the max. If it were me I would play it safe and give him the max but then again, I am not the Blazers front office. They have all the leverage to give him less then the max too though and he will be locked up for years so even if he is offended I am sure he will get over it in the coming years.

Simons in 30 games pre January 1 = 11.9 ppg, 2.2 apg
Simons in 23 games post January 1 = 23.6 ppg, 6.1 apg

January 3 was when Simons became a full time starter. I'd say he's already proven he's more than a 17 ppg scorer. As an added bonus, POR is 12-11 in those 23 games. They were 12-17 in the 29 games Dame started. I'm not saying Simons is better than Dame. Strength of schedule, adapting to a new coach, roster churn, etc. have all played a part. My point is that, in addition to his impressive individual stats since becoming a full time starter, the team has not fallen apart with Simons at the helm.