tank thread

soobias · Post #1 » by **soobias** » Tue Mar 1, 2022 2:39 am

idk if its been posted already, i didnt see it but here it is.
the official tank thread with countdown to how many losses needed for insure in the lotto

DusterBuster · Post #2 » by **DusterBuster** » Tue Mar 1, 2022 6:36 pm

https://www.tankathon.com/

DusterBuster · Post #3 » by **DusterBuster** » Tue Mar 1, 2022 6:39 pm

I'm really pulling for Sacramento to pick up some pointless wins. Really hoping to see Portland get some separation from NY, SAC and SAS.

BlazersBroncos · Post #4 » by **BlazersBroncos** » Tue Mar 1, 2022 8:06 pm

DusterBuster wrote:I'm really pulling for Sacramento to pick up some pointless wins. Really hoping to see Portland get some separation from NY, SAC and SAS.

SAC making that win-now move to get Sabonis should help us here. NY is so up-and-down who knows and SAS seems to always play just well enough to end up 10 or so.

I am cautiously optimistic that we pretty easily end up worse than them. That would put us better than only Orlando, Detroit, Houston, OKC and Indiana. 6th worse record has a 37% chance at a top-4 pick. (Albeit the way I see this draft the needle movers are only Chet and Jabari, which we would have a 9% chance at either 1 or 2 should we end up pick 6).

I like Griffin alot after the big-2. Wonder if should we end up w/ him it opens Little to being moved. I think Bledsoe, Little, NO FRP is a pretty attractive deal for a bigger fish. AJ is NBA ready for a 3/D role w/ upside higher than that so he can IMO slide into Little's backup SF minutes from day 1.

monopoman · Post #5 » by **monopoman** » Tue Mar 1, 2022 10:33 pm

DusterBuster wrote:https://www.tankathon.com/

Yep, this is the best site for the current tank standings and you can even simulate the lotto if you want.

DusterBuster · Post #6 » by **DusterBuster** » Tue Mar 1, 2022 11:41 pm

monopoman wrote:
DusterBuster wrote:https://www.tankathon.com/

Yep, this is the best site for the current tank standings and you can even simulate the lotto if you want.

Wasn't a fan of how many times I got the Blazers dropping back in the lottery vs the times they moved up.

DusterBuster · Post #7 » by **DusterBuster** » Tue Mar 1, 2022 11:48 pm

BlazersBroncos wrote:
DusterBuster wrote:I'm really pulling for Sacramento to pick up some pointless wins. Really hoping to see Portland get some separation from NY, SAC and SAS.

SAC making that win-now move to get Sabonis should help us here. NY is so up-and-down who knows and SAS seems to always play just well enough to end up 10 or so.

I am cautiously optimistic that we pretty easily end up worse than them. That would put us better than only Orlando, Detroit, Houston, OKC and Indiana. 6th worse record has a 37% chance at a top-4 pick. (Albeit the way I see this draft the needle movers are only Chet and Jabari, which we would have a 9% chance at either 1 or 2 should we end up pick 6).

I like Griffin alot after the big-2. Wonder if should we end up w/ him it opens Little to being moved. I think Bledsoe, Little, NO FRP is a pretty attractive deal for a bigger fish. AJ is NBA ready for a 3/D role w/ upside higher than that so he can IMO slide into Little's backup SF minutes from day 1.

Yeah, I suspect Sac should end the season with more wins than Portland unless they just randomly decide to shut down Sabas for next season. I don't think they would do that, but who knows why the Kings do anything they do.

The Knicks meanwhile, they just shut down Walker - but he's been pretty inconsistent for them. It's also unclear when Rose might be back from injury, he might miss all of March. It's pretty unclear if they're still going to try and win or if they just pack in the season as well. Wouldn't be shocked to see them go for the tank this year... but who knows.

Anyway, I agree, I think the Blazers best hope is to try and get to the 6th seed. If they can do that, I will have considered this a fairly successful tank since I think the bottom 5 will be hard (if not downright impossible) to catch.

monopoman · Post #8 » by **monopoman** » Wed Mar 2, 2022 12:10 am

#7 or higher is pretty good odds on a top 4 pick. Not as good as the bottom 3 teams obviously, but ever since the anti-tank rules were implemented we have a much better shot at a top 4 pick then we did about 10 years ago.

PDXKnight · Post #9 » by **PDXKnight** » Wed Mar 2, 2022 4:02 am

monopoman wrote:#7 or higher is pretty good odds on a top 4 pick. Not as good as the bottom 3 teams obviously, but ever since the anti-tank rules were implemented we have a much better shot at a top 4 pick then we did about 10 years ago.

If we can squeeze our way up to 6 the odds go up pretty significantly. 40 percent chance of a top 4 pick

PDXKnight · Post #10 » by **PDXKnight** » Wed Mar 2, 2022 4:03 am

DusterBuster wrote:I'm really pulling for Sacramento to pick up some pointless wins. Really hoping to see Portland get some separation from NY, SAC and SAS.

Sacramento i think wins some to close out. The knicks are tanking i get a bad feeling about topping them

Goldbum · Post #11 » by **Goldbum** » Wed Mar 2, 2022 5:23 am

I wouldn't mind getting another look at Giles...this time under Billups and Rogers

wjun15 · Post #12 » by **wjun15** » Thu Mar 3, 2022 9:17 am

looks like Pelicans are gonna go to play in with the way they are playing. With clips and wolves in 7 and 8 (pels seem better than them if not even), good chance they will keep their pick.

We should tank every game to get 5th (we play Indy twice).
Spurs/Kings/Knicks are not giving up quite yet for play in Im assuming.

monopoman · Post #13 » by **monopoman** » Mon Mar 7, 2022 1:27 am

Anfernee out Monday against the Wolves with a minor injury, looks like Blazers management really pushing for as many losses as possible.

We will see if this injury gets dragged out for more than a few games.

DusterBuster · Post #14 » by **DusterBuster** » Mon Mar 7, 2022 10:39 pm

Yeesh... this is gonna be a loooong wait til the end of the season. They should be paying fans to come to games with the rosters they're going to be trotting out until April.

Dame Lizard · Post #15 » by **Dame Lizard** » Tue Mar 8, 2022 2:40 am

wjun15 wrote:looks like Pelicans are gonna go to play in with the way they are playing. With clips and wolves in 7 and 8 (pels seem better than them if not even), good chance they will keep their pick.

We should tank every game to get 5th (we play Indy twice).
Spurs/Kings/Knicks are not giving up quite yet for play in Im assuming.

I'm not so sure.

It seems likely that the Pelicans will vs the Lakers in the #9 vs #10 matchup.

While the Lakers are a mess, a determined LeBron and a hopefully healthy AD puts them as favourites for me.

I think the chances are we get the Pelicans pick, simply because they'll likely have to beat both the Lakers and the loser of TWolves and Clippers.

Given we don't know the health status of AD/LeBron for the play-in, if we assume 50/50 odds that they win each game, there's a 75% chance that we get their pick.

Norm2953 · Post #16 » by **Norm2953** » Tue Mar 8, 2022 2:51 am

Play in games would feature the 7 seed vs 10 along with 8vs 9.

Clippers as the 8 seed would only need to win one game against either the Lakers/Pelicans
Wolves as the 7 seed would likely be the big favorite as well.

Norm2953 · Post #17 » by **Norm2953** » Tue Mar 8, 2022 2:56 am

DusterBuster wrote:Yeesh... this is gonna be a loooong wait til the end of the season. They should be paying fans to come to games with the rosters they're going to be trotting out until April.

They have been tying to mandate the season ticket holders to renew for next season. Ive been a season ticket
holder for ten years and there is no way I'll go through the hassles of going to see an inferior product this year
or next season. Shamelessly trying to tank just infuriates me as a season ticket holder

Case2012 · Post #18 » by **Case2012** » Tue Mar 8, 2022 4:46 am

The games should be free at this point.

Dame Lizard · Post #19 » by **Dame Lizard** » Tue Mar 8, 2022 4:53 am

Norm2953 wrote:Play in games would feature the 7 seed vs 10 along with 8vs 9.

Clippers as the 8 seed would only need to win one game against either the Lakers/Pelicans
Wolves as the 7 seed would likely be the big favorite as well.

Not to my understanding. It's #7 vs #8. Winner goes through to the playoffs automatically.

Then #9 vs #10. Winner of that then competes against the loser of the #7 vs #8 match. Winner of this match takes the second playoff spot.

DusterBuster · Post #20 » by **DusterBuster** » Tue Mar 8, 2022 5:32 am

Man, I’m really skeptical the Blazers are gonna be able to catch the Kings.