Post#33 » by Wizenheimer » Sun Apr 17, 2022 4:58 pm
about the CJ trade:
Jake Fisher, who has nailed a lot of trades before they happened...good sources apparently, was on a podcast and said that the Blazers had a couple of other offers for CJ. One was from Atlanta that was Gallinari + Filler + a future protected 1st. The other was from Dallas that was Powell + Kleber + a future protected 1st
so then:
Atlanta Offer: Gallinari + Filler + future protected 1st
Dallas Offer: Powell + Kleber + future protected 1st
Pelicans Trade: Hart + Louzada + future protected 1st + 21M TPE + 3.3M TPE
if Fisher is correct that was the market for CJ, the Blazers did as well as could be expected. Obviously, the filler and details of the offers might add more value, but not likely add enough to change the equation (and somehow you have to factor Nance; But he only played in 9 of 28 games for the Pels, which is Nance's career in a nutshell) I'd say Hart & Powell have about equal value; Gallo not so much; Kleber almost none. It may be that the future 1sts from Atlanta and Dallas will be better than a future 1st from Milwaukee, depending on the protections. But 3 years from now Jrue will be 35 & Middleton will be 34. You never know
adding to the value of the Pels trade was that the Blazers did have an opportunity for the 10th-11th pick in this draft. It was actually a good opportunity. But it was hard to anticipate that the Lakers would suffer an historical collapse or that PG13 would get Covid the day of the play-in game. If he plays in that game, Blazers get that lottery pick. Might even get it if Kennard plays.
I think Cronin could have probably leveraged better draft assets out of that Pels. For instance, Blazers get the better of the Pels and Laker picks this draft, both top-4 protected. If not conveyed, then the Lakers 2024 pick, protected top-4. If not conveyed then that Bucks pick. The Pels were not going to trade Jones; and it's unlikely they would have added Hayes or Murphy
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about the Clippers trade:
yeah, it looks like a dog of a trade for the Blazers. But there are some arguments for why the return was so low.
To start with, I don't think RoCo had much value. To be sure, some teams were reportedly interested in him, but those reports seemed to indicate the return was going to be a lesser player on a slightly lesser contract plus a 2nd. There is only 1 GM who'd give up two 1st's for RoCo. Let me amend that: ex-GM
as for Powell, I know that I disagreed with people last summer who said the Blazer signed him to a great contract. I thought it was a negative contract because teams just don't want to be obligated for 5 years at 15% of the salary cap to a role player. And that's what Powell is. He can drive really well and shoot well. But he doesn't pass well at all and he's not a good defender. He has limits and flaws, but he's getting 18M/year
Portland did get Winslow and Johnson plus a couple of seconds. They got a 6.5M TPE and they reduced current and future salary by 90M, Still, that trade raises questions about Cronin's competence; especially because it was done a week before the trade deadline. What the hell was the reason for that? For me, it's impossible to ignore the long0standing relationship between Jody Allen and Steve Ballmer; IIRC, they are even neighbors in Seattle. Yeah, I bought a new roll of tinfoil
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all of that is not meant to be a strong defense of Cronin. It's just meant as a reminder that we have spent years overrating the talent Portland has, and the value of the players. I think Cronin was operating within the boundaries set by the Vulcans and the #1 priority out of Seattle was fro Cronin to dramatically reduce current and future payroll, partly because to the new deals headed to Simons and Nurkic. He did that pretty well
still, I'd strongly prefer a different GM in charge of the rebuild, drafting, and future trades
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I think there's a bigger picture here too. What is the alternative? Start with not firing Olshey's ass. What would he have done? Is there any doubt? He might have traded RoCo for a minimal return since it's nearly certain RoCo wouldn't re-sign in Portland. But that would require Olshey to admit by action that swapping 2 first's and Ariza for RoCo was damn stupid. And then what would have Olshey done this summer? He would have re-signed Simons for sure. And he would have rebooted the same kind of failed roster he had the previous 7 off-seasons. Portland would have very likely had 120M/year (the entire salary cap) invested in four 6'3 and under guards. 6'3 barrels of Illuminati oil for olshey's bloated ego. Does anybody doubt that?
the roster absolutely had to be dismantled. The 7 year build-up of an unbalanced and unsustainable roster would have reached a toxic level in year 8. It had to be burned down. You can argue about what Portland got for tearing it down but it had to happen at the trade deadline and should have happened 5 seasons ago.
