San Antonio Spurs vs New Orleans Pelicans Play-In Game

[Norm2953]

I've been thinking what would Orlando do if (assuming Portland didn't get lucky) Portland offered
them a S/T with Simons that moved Portland from 6-2. This assumes Portland and Orlando
after the lottery staying put.

That would give them a dynamic roster of Simons/Suggs in their back court with Franz Wagner,
Wendell Carter and Isaac (assuming he finally is healthy) and they'd still have the sixth pick
to add another piece.

Portland would draft their choice of whomever is left after whoever picks first is finished. One
of Jabari Smith, Holmgren and Banchero would be a Blazer.

[Case2012]

The difference in value from 6 to 2 is not Simons, that's crazy. I would consider number 2 FOR Simons, however. There's no clear cut number 1 or 2 for that matter in this draft and I'm not convinced Smith is any better than Murray, imo he isn't but he's younger and has more upside supposedly.

Whatever Cronin's plan was, it's **** now so they should probably hire a long term gm since Joe failed so miserably. Everyone should be on the table besides Dame. It's crazy that we wasted that many assets to tear it down just to repeat the same thing with Simons.

[Case2012]

A sign and trade with Chicago for Levine would be interesting. He's from the NW and would probably love to be paired with Dame a few hours from his home town. Chicago could build around Patrick Williams, ball and anfernee. They could also move vuc and DDR for some more nice assets too.

Then we use the tpe and Milwaukee pick plus 2 second for Grant?

Dame/ Bledsoe on a new deal?
Levine/Nas/Mathurin
Hart/ Winslow/Ingles
Grant/Love/Brown
Nurkic/Watford

With any luck love gets bought out and comes home as a 6th man.

[Norm2953]

Portland badly needs a front court player who can compete on even terms with all those quality front courts
in the Western Conference. Team has been trying to get by with the likes of Aminu/Harkless and was hurt
when Zach Collins couldn't stay on the court.

Murray is a tweener, much like Jerami Grant and there is no guarantee he will be there at six for its quite
possible Holmgren, Smith, Banchero, Ivey, Murray will be the top 5 picks in this draft leaving the Blazers
to choose between a group of guards and AJ Griffin.

I dislike trading Simons as much as anyone else but I'd do it to add a quality PF type that this team hasn't
had since LA left in free agency 7 years ago. I like the trade better for the Magic but its the price we have
to pay to get a PF type who will be under team control under his rookie deal for five seasons.

[DusterBuster]

I've been thinking what would Orlando do if (assuming Portland didn't get lucky) Portland offered
them a S/T with Simons that moved Portland from 6-2. This assumes Portland and Orlando
after the lottery staying put.

That would give them a dynamic roster of Simons/Suggs in their back court with Franz Wagner,
Wendell Carter and Isaac (assuming he finally is healthy) and they'd still have the sixth pick
to add another piece.

Portland would draft their choice of whomever is left after whoever picks first is finished. One
of Jabari Smith, Holmgren and Banchero would be a Blazer.

Timing of a S&T with draft capital from a draft that already occurred like this is really awkward. Don't really think that's a thing that would happen

[Goldbum]

I prefer Jabari, but Chet along side Nurk and Grant is a dynamic front court.

If we get into the top 4 then losing the Pels pick is not a huge deal. If we slide out of the top 6 it's bad

[DusterBuster]

If we get into the top 4 then losing the Pels pick is not a huge deal. If we slide out of the top 6 it's bad

Basically where I'm at too. I think any outcome where the Blazers don't end up in the Top 4 at this point is a bad scenario. Staying at 6 or going lower pretty well kneecaps most all moves this summer.

Getting Grant and still keeping the Blazers own pick really hinged on getting that Pelican's pick. Not sure if the 2025 Milwaukee pick is enough for the Pistons to move Grant. Maybe the Blazers will offer their 2023 FRP in addition to that MIL pick? That's the only way I see the Blazers being able to get Grant AND keep their 2022 pick this year. The other scenario is just them moving this year's pick (if its 6 or lower) to the Pistons for Grant, which is depressing but in the realm of something the Blazers would do since they're pretty well all-in on getting him.

[Case2012]

If we get into the top 4 then losing the Pels pick is not a huge deal. If we slide out of the top 6 it's bad

Basically where I'm at too. I think any outcome where the Blazers don't end up in the Top 4 at this point is a bad scenario. Staying at 6 or going lower pretty well kneecaps most all moves this summer.

Getting Grant and still keeping the Blazers own pick really hinged on getting that Pelican's pick. Not sure if the 2025 Milwaukee pick is enough for the Pistons to move Grant. Maybe the Blazers will offer their 2023 FRP in addition to that MIL pick? That's the only way I see the Blazers being able to get Grant AND keep their 2022 pick this year. The other scenario is just them moving this year's pick (if its 6 or lower) to the Pistons for Grant, which is depressing but in the realm of something the Blazers would do since they're pretty well all-in on getting him.

The Grant plan sucks but since that’s what the Mensa squad at one center court are obviously going to execute, instead of trading six we should trade down and pick up another asset for another trade using Bledsoe’s contract.

Maybe we could do 6th and Bledsoe for the 13th and 15th plus Kelly Oubre (Expiring at 12 million), then trade the 13th, the 36th and the tpe for Grant? Draft BPA at 15.

Dame/ Ant/ Dunn
Ant/ Nas/ Johnson
Hart/ Oubre/ Ingles
Grant/ Winslow/ Watford
Nurkic/ Kessler?

Charlotte Takes Murray/Mathurin Griffin to add to Bridges and Ball.

[BlazersBroncos]

I think we need to get Top-3, not Top-4.

We arent taking Ivey IMO as he isnt good enough to move on from Dame for.

Its really Chet, Jabari, Paolo or bust. Get one of those 3, make a move for Grant and with some luck we are a Top-4 seed next year IMO (Luck being the FRP immediately playing at a 'above average starter' level, Ant continuing to be a monster scorer, Dame coming back 100% healthy, Grant improving efficiency as a lower offensive option, Nurkic staying healthy, etc etc etc)

[Norm2953]

I do wonder if trading into the top 3 along with adding Grant is possible without trading Dame or the
S/T proposal I had tossed out.

Even if possible, would adding the top 3 pick and Grant put the Blazers in with Phoenix, Memphis, Dallas
and the GSW? I'd think the team could compete with Utah, Denver and Minnesota but don't discount the
Pelicans if they get Zion back.

I do think we need to get into the top 3 to get one of Holmgren, Smith or Banchero. Whichever player we
get is going to need some time to develop for both Holmgren and Smith are nowhere near strong enough
to hold position on either board in games.

[Case2012]

How about some feedback on my trade ideas?..

[JasonStern]

about the Clippers trade:

yeah, it looks like a dog of a trade for the Blazers. But there are some arguments for why the return was so low.

To start with, I don't think RoCo had much value. To be sure, some teams were reportedly interested in him, but those reports seemed to indicate the return was going to be a lesser player on a slightly lesser contract plus a 2nd. There is only 1 GM who'd give up two 1st's for RoCo. Let me amend that: ex-GM

as for Powell, I know that I disagreed with people last summer who said the Blazer signed him to a great contract. I thought it was a negative contract because teams just don't want to be obligated for 5 years at 15% of the salary cap to a role player. And that's what Powell is. He can drive really well and shoot well. But he doesn't pass well at all and he's not a good defender. He has limits and flaws, but he's getting 18M/year

Portland did get Winslow and Johnson plus a couple of seconds. They got a 6.5M TPE and they reduced current and future salary by 90M

What the hell? Did you clean up, find Jesus, and become some glass half full person without telling us?

In less minutes while coming off the bench for the Clippers, Covington managed to become a far better defender and scorer. I'm sure a lot of that was due to roster and coaching reasons, but the idea that Covington had no value is nonsensical. He might have had no value to a Portland team given his misuse and expiring contract, but that is still no reason to trade a starter tier player to a conference rival if your supposed plan is to win now with Dame.

And advanced metrics prove this. In Portland, Covington's PER was 10.0. But you got him on a team that could let him play his game and it jumped to 19.4. If the goal is to win now, that is totally worth two late 1sts. But that again implies you can properly utilize the player, which Portland clearly failed to do.

The same holds true with Powell. On the Blazers playing out of position at small forward, his PER was 15.3 - pretty average. And yes, you could say overpaid for an average small forward on his new contract. But then he gets traded to a team that utilizes him correctly and his PER jumps to 27.1! Obviously that would not likely be sustainable throughout his contract, especially if Kawhi and PG13 came back. But it again shows that fit and usage were the problem - not overpaying for scrubs. 15% of the cap for a player that can play 80% of game minutes at a position is not bad value when they perform well above league average.

And again, you gifted two starter tier players to a conference rival while claiming the goal is to win now with Dame. And Cronin did it under some false pretense that the only way he could get value for CJ was to get under the salary cap prior to making the CJ trade.

Insinuating that Justise Winslow was some value haul for Portland just shows that you miss the fact that he put up good stats on a 2-18 team. While he could be a serviceable backup on a team that lacks depth, there is nothing about his play that screams "meaningful minutes on a contender".

I will give Keon a bit more credit. He's young and might be salvageable. But if a team is committed to a rookie contract player, they're typically off limits. This seems like the same Olshey dumpster dive for a Thomas Robinson or Shabazz Napier. Okay. Maybe it pans out, but it probably won't as history has shown.

And if that is a positive, then justify trading Nickeil Alexander-Walker - someone that is also on a rookie contract that has proven to at least be backup tier - for a 2nd round pick and Dad Bod Joe Ingles.

Hate to be the bearer of bad news, but Cronin got fleeced. The Blazers have less assets than they did a year ago. Dame isn't capable of carrying the franchise alone. The lack of assets puts Portland in really bad situation unless a team really wants a 2025 MIL 1st and some 2nd round picks. And Cronin will likely fail horribly this off-season, wondering why that isn't a haul. He traded multiple NBA starters for a 2025 MIL 1st and some 2nd round picks. Why aren't other GMs doing the same?

Ugh.

[BlazersBroncos]

I think its cherry picking to outline the improvement in advanced stats for RoCo and Norm but ignore that NAW was by all accounts a consistent net negative in NO and managed to get 9.9mpg in Utah. He is not a winning player.

At least Keon has elite athleticism, a great motor and seems to be decently aware on defense.

I still think the LAC trade was a protected FRP or a Brandon Boston JR short of good value, but I have a bit more optimism after watching Keon a bit (Albeit on a **** team) and reading up on his pre-draft hype - I forgot most saw him as a Top-10 pick until he fell much like Little.

Also in sticking with glass half full - The main knock on Keon was his shooting, everyone accepted he was an elite athlete with a great motor and played D with effort, but that 27% 3PT in college was scary. He managed near 35% on 89 attempts in 22 games for Portland from the NBA 3PT line. That type of improvement gives me plenty of hopeium that he can at least become a 3/D guy, and that he works hard on his craft. Its something that we have not talked about much, bc thats a huge jump on pretty decent volume.

[Wizenheimer]

Hate to be the bearer of bad news, but Cronin got fleeced. The Blazers have less assets than they did a year ago. Dame isn't capable of carrying the franchise alone. The lack of assets puts Portland in really bad situation unless a team really wants a 2025 MIL 1st and some 2nd round picks. And Cronin will likely fail horribly this off-season, wondering why that isn't a haul. He traded multiple NBA starters for a 2025 MIL 1st and some 2nd round picks. Why aren't other GMs doing the same?

Ugh.

that was a lot of verbiage just to end at "ugh". By the way, I never said RoCo had "no value"....I said he didn't have much value. Difference there

as for Cronin getting "fleeced"....I don't buy that. He may have been able to secure better draft assets, but not substantially so in my view.

The foundation for the 2 month tantrums some Blazer fans have been having about the returns on those trades is the unfounded assumption that the players traded had a lot more value than the real-world trades returned. But there is NOTHING either reported or rumored that supports that assumption.

I had a couple of arguments with people about Powell's new contract last summer. My contention was that contract was negative value. No team would value Powell as a SF. That was just Olshey's idiocy. And not many teams would really value Powell as a starting SG. Some would, most wouldn't, IMO. He's good at two things, driving to the hoop and perimeter shooting. Those have value, but for him that value is degraded because he's not a good passer and he's a weak defender. He's a provisional starter and a role player who is making 18M/year on a 5 year contract. Teams simply don't want to be obligated for that long for a role player

but back to the assumption about "there just had to be better trades out there because there just had to be". Where are all the reports and rumors about teams offering specific assets for the players Portland traded? I've been paying attention and all I've heard or seen was Jake Fisher (who has been really accurate with his rumors; good sources) talking about a couple of competing offers for CJ

one was from Atlanta who was offering Gallinari + filler + a protected future 1st
the other was from Dallas who was offering (before the Porzingis trade) Powell + Kleber + filler + a protected future 1st

so to summarize and compare:

Atlanta: Gallinari + filler + a protected future 1st
Dallas: Powell + Kleber + filler + a protected future 1st
Pelicans: Hart + Louzada + a protected future 1st + 21M TPE + 3.3M TPE

if that was the market for CJ, and I think there is reason to believe that's true, Cronin did OK especially when you factor that the Blazers would have had an 11th pick if Paul George didn't get Covid. Sometimes, bad luck bites ya

so then, the only 'evidence' we have for the value of the assets Portland traded points to them having a lot less value than the assumptions of people angry about the trades. But more than that is the 4 players traded were being paid half of Portland's payroll yet they combined to have Portland's trajectory flat-lined. They were the players most responsible for Portland trudging along on a treadmill in a dead end alley in Purgatory. Their talent was taking Portland nowhere and their salaries kept Portland locked in that nowhere. They do not represent much in the way of lost assets, especially not RoCo (expiring contract who was not going to re-sign) or Nance (always injured bench player)

those players HAD to be traded; and they HAD to be traded for a lot less current and future salary. If they weren't traded and the Blazers resigned Simons and Nurkic the Blazers would have an 80-90M tax bill next season. Which points out the almost certain reality Cronin was dealing with: his Vulcan overlords. I don't think there is any doubt at all that Cronin was ordered to substantially reduce current and future salary with his trades (which looks like the actions of a team for sale). I'm pretty sure that finance was the #1 priority Seattle ordered for Cronin's deadline deals. He did a very good job of accomplishing that. Now, he very well may have done a mediocre job of balancing outgoing and incoming assets. But if you assume the Vulcans issued orders and Cronin complied (both reasonable), Cronin likely didn't get close to being fleeced. This was not Polynice for Pippen

yeeeeeesh...I gave you crap about verbiage and then made this post

[Norm2953]

There is an article on BE that is about a potential sale of the Blazers that Wiz alludes to

https://www.blazersedge.com/2022/4/21/23035835/portland-trail-blazers-could-be-sold-sooner-rather-than-later


It will be interesting to see how motivated Portland will be to really move mountains for Dame if the ultimate goal
is to maximize the sales price for the team. Team is valued at $1.85 Billion and faces a negotiation for a new
lease. Dame is going nowhere if the notion of the team's value dropping $200 Million is correct.

Larry Ellison who has a net worth of $54 Billion and has tried three times to buy an NBA franchise has long been
perceived as the odds on favorite to buy the Blazers (or any team). Let's see if the sale happens (if BE is correct)
in the next 6-18 months.

[HoopsFanAZ]

[...]

Atlanta: Gallinari + filler + a protected future 1st
Dallas: Powell + Kleber + filler + a protected future 1st
Pelicans: Hart + Louzada + a protected future 1st + 21M TPE + 3.3M TPE

[...]

Not getting the Pelican Pick sucked. And MAYBE a fallback option on another pick this draft would've been possible. Maybe.
But what had to happen to lose the pick did. Back when the trade was completed, who expected the following to happen:

1. The Lakers failed to make the playoffs. The Clippers failed to make the playoffs. That would've been an epic Vegas bet!
2. The Pelicans actually won some games (without Zion stepping onto the court).
3. Paul George is out with COVID the day before the Pelicans game (along with Kawhi out for the entire season).

Losing the pick still sucks and will continue to suck unless the Milwaukee pick in a package gets a good return or works in 2025. But the unlikely combination happened affecting the immediate returns of a trade, now.
The Draft Lottery is less than a month away.

[JasonStern]

I think its cherry picking to outline the improvement in advanced stats for RoCo and Norm but ignore that NAW was by all accounts a consistent net negative in NO and managed to get 9.9mpg in Utah. He is not a winning player.

And the players the Blazers were playing during the tank were winning players? Nickeil Alexander-Walker is 23. The Blazers would have been much better off kicking the tires on him during the tank than paying Joe Ingles to not play basketball just to get the 59th pick in this year's draft.

Back when the trade was completed, who expected the following to happen:

1. The Lakers failed to make the playoffs. The Clippers failed to make the playoffs. That would've been an epic Vegas bet!
2. The Pelicans actually won some games (without Zion stepping onto the court).
3. Paul George is out with COVID the day before the Pelicans game (along with Kawhi out for the entire season).

I predicted #2. Go back and look at their season. They started 2-14, but they started playing above .500 ball heading into the trade deadline. They then added CJ to compliment Ingram, Valančiūnas, and Jones. And at the trade deadline, there was still hope that Zion would return. Plus if you've been a Blazers fan long enough, you know that if there are two possible outcomes, the bad one is the one that will happen.

[Dame Lizard]

[...]

Atlanta: Gallinari + filler + a protected future 1st
Dallas: Powell + Kleber + filler + a protected future 1st
Pelicans: Hart + Louzada + a protected future 1st + 21M TPE + 3.3M TPE

[...]

Not getting the Pelican Pick sucked. And MAYBE a fallback option on another pick this draft would've been possible. Maybe.
But what had to happen to lose the pick did. Back when the trade was completed, who expected the following to happen:

1. The Lakers failed to make the playoffs. The Clippers failed to make the playoffs. That would've been an epic Vegas bet!
2. The Pelicans actually won some games (without Zion stepping onto the court).
3. Paul George is out with COVID the day before the Pelicans game (along with Kawhi out for the entire season).

Losing the pick still sucks and will continue to suck unless the Milwaukee pick in a package gets a good return or works in 2025. But the unlikely combination happened affecting the immediate returns of a trade, now.
The Draft Lottery is less than a month away.

Agree on the CJ trade. I think we got back good value on it.

People love using hindsight to make historical judgements, but as per the above, we horrendously unlucky to not get the #11 pick. The bookies had us as strong favourites to get it, but unfortunately things don't fall your way all the time.

Nobody was questioning whether CJ was a good play or not in a bubble. It was all about the horrible fit alongside Dame. That contract of $33m next season and $36m the season after is poor.

I'm not happy about the Norm and RoCo trade though.