RealGM

okay...I realize we only have a 9% chance of winning the 1st pick, but this is the season of dreaming. Here's the question, who would you select and why?

Personally, I want no part of Chet Holmgren. Not due to the history of foot problems of Centers we draft, but I just can't see him having success in the NBA because of his size. I also don't want us to draft a Shooting Guard with our pick, not matter where we land. Drafting a SG just recreates what we had with CJ and we know how that went.

In my opinion, we need the best SF/PF available. With the 1st pick, that means Jabari Smith from Auburn or Paolo Banchero from Duke. I'm leaning towards Paolo, but I have a nagging issue with Duke players in the NBA. How many haven't lived up to their billing? Aside from the nut job Kyrie, an argument can be made that only Jason Tatum has lived up to expectations. Brandon Ingram is close, but still not what was expected. I think I just changed my mind....

Another option if we land #1, is to trade it to OKC who will have two picks in the lottery. Clearly it depends on where those picks land, but that might be an interesting alternative.

Chet all day.

AK47 with a better offensive arsenal. The exact guy you want to help raise the defensive floor with 2 small guards.

BlazersBroncos wrote:Chet all day.

AK47 with a better offensive arsenal. The exact guy you want to help raise the defensive floor with 2 small guards.

You honestly think Jokic (284 lbs), Embiid (280), KAT (250), Gobert (260) and Adebayo (260) won't absolutely shove Holmgren around all game long?

jebdrbhjb wrote:

BlazersBroncos wrote:Chet all day.

AK47 with a better offensive arsenal. The exact guy you want to help raise the defensive floor with 2 small guards.

You honestly think Jokic (284 lbs), Embiid (280), KAT (250), Gobert (260) and Adebayo (260) won't absolutely shove Holmgren around all game long?

Chet is a PF, who should be given some small ball C minutes to increase pace and space.

Nurkic would be guarding those guys.

KD was 210lbs and couldnt bench 185 a single time coming out of Texas.

BlazersBroncos wrote:

jebdrbhjb wrote:

BlazersBroncos wrote:Chet all day.

AK47 with a better offensive arsenal. The exact guy you want to help raise the defensive floor with 2 small guards.

You honestly think Jokic (284 lbs), Embiid (280), KAT (250), Gobert (260) and Adebayo (260) won't absolutely shove Holmgren around all game long?

Chet is a PF, who should be given some small ball C minutes to increase pace and space.

Nurkic would be guarding those guys.

KD was 210lbs and couldnt bench 185 a single time coming out of Texas.

We'll agree to disagree because comparing Holmgren to KD means we don't view hoops the same way.

jebdrbhjb wrote:

BlazersBroncos wrote:

jebdrbhjb wrote:
You honestly think Jokic (284 lbs), Embiid (280), KAT (250), Gobert (260) and Adebayo (260) won't absolutely shove Holmgren around all game long?

Chet is a PF, who should be given some small ball C minutes to increase pace and space.

Nurkic would be guarding those guys.

KD was 210lbs and couldnt bench 185 a single time coming out of Texas.

We'll agree to disagree because comparing Holmgren to KD means we don't view hoops the same way.

I am comparing their body types, which are very similar. Obviously Chet isnt near the offensive talent that KD was.

Well if it was NO doing the drafting, he'd draft Ivey.

I could see the Blazers drafting Jabari Smith if they are afraid of drafting another Gonzaga big.
Smith just seems like the modern day NBA PF, perhaps the second coming of LA in Portland.

It's got to be Jabari right. His switchable D and elite shooting/pull up game make him a perfect fit.

Personally I would go with Chet, assuming all his health stuff checks out. I understand the risks but with the #1 pick I would be looking for game breaking talent and he is the best shot at that in this draft. Does so many little things right, kind of like Evan Mobley or Jokic with the BBIQ.

Of course if there are some medical concerns with Chet, well I think any team would be pretty happy with Jabari Smith as well so that wouldn't be a hard pivot for me. He will likely be a very high level performer, in the right role could certainly get a couple All-Star appearances.

Jabari all day.

DeBlazerRiddem wrote:Personally I would go with Chet, assuming all his health stuff checks out. I understand the risks but with the #1 pick I would be looking for game breaking talent and he is the best shot at that in this draft. Does so many little things right, kind of like Evan Mobley or Jokic with the BBIQ.

[…]

That argument [IMHO] is the argument. I know it’s not revolutionary or anything. But top3 or 4 is where the stars are (or are supposed to be). Later on is BPA and tiers … yes, in the top 3, too. Who in the draft is going to be a dude? There’s no Tim Duncan. Or KD … who was reportedly described from his Blazers’ pre-draft workout as “an assassin.”

The normal hype isn’t in this draft. My risk tolerance is at polar opposite. Holmgren and Sharpe vs. Murray.

So, at #1, I’m going with Chet. He’s got more game. IIRC, KD was a guy who worked on skills when he was younger rather than being a 5 on 5, AAU play club games guy. [Correct me if my memory sucks.]. Chet has skills. Skinny. Slender and skinny. It’s no small thing, but that’s the negative. No, Chet isn’t KD. Just skinny, and it was the same argument I bought last time to pick Oden.

The NBA is so soft, it would be different if Chet was coming out in the 90's, but if he's halfway decent the league is going to protect him from too much bully ball. Plus, I foresee a "twin towers" scenario with him at PF while he is young and springy (plus some backup center) and once he gets older that he may be a full time center.

I don't think Holmgren has much of a chance, at all, of being consistently effective at PF. There are just too many SF's and stretch-4's masquerading as PF's. IMO, Holmgren can't guard those guys. That's why Zach Collins was always in foul trouble at PF, and he's a hell of a lot quicker than Holmgren.

for instance, Golden State's PF's are Draymond, Otto Porter, and Kuminga. Phoenix runs Crowder & Cam Johnson at PF. Dorian Finney-Smith has been the Mavs starting PF since Porzingis was traded. Utah's starting PF is Bogdanovic; Denver has Aaron Gordon; Minny goes with Jared Vanderbilt and Jaden McDaniels. When Healthy, the Clippers would go with Kawhi or PG13 at PF; and RoCo off the bench. The Pels will go with Herbert Jones and Ingram.

Holmgren will be at a disadvantage on defense against almost all of those guys and he doesn't have the strength to punish those men inside when the floor flips

if the Blazers are going to 'waste' a pick on yet another project C, they should just plan on letting Nurkic walk, make Homgren the starting C, and be prepared to be one of the worst rebounding teams in the league. And yes, it would be a wasted pick because what Portland desperately needs, and have needed in the Olshey era, is some high level talent at wing. Their draft pick is their best opportunity to add that talent since Olshey refused to consider trading CJ for PG13 and Butler

if a top 4 pick IMO you take Jabari or Banchero, 6 or later Keegan if available then perhaps Sochan or Tari Eason (depending upon workouts and combine measurements) two of the better/best projected defenders with multi position defensive capability.

Blazinaway wrote:if a top 4 pick IMO you take Jabari or Banchero, 6 or later Keegan if available then perhaps Sochan or Tari Eason (depending upon workouts and combine measurements) two of the better/best projected defenders with multi position defensive capability.

If we are at 6 I would look to trade the pick for 13 + 15 and a couple of future 2nds.
15 and Bledsoe for Grant, then draft Eason/D.Daniels or Sochan at 13 (hopefully Eason) that would leave the Bucks25/TPE and those future 2nds for another deal. Maybe #36 + Didi + Bucks25 and the TPE could get us Harrison Barnes? Idk but Barnes+Grant+ Eason+ Nas+Watford+ GB3 gives us a bunch of modern bigs and switchable defenders.

Goldbum wrote:

Blazinaway wrote:if a top 4 pick IMO you take Jabari or Banchero, 6 or later Keegan if available then perhaps Sochan or Tari Eason (depending upon workouts and combine measurements) two of the better/best projected defenders with multi position defensive capability.

If we are at 6 I would look to trade the pick for 13 + 15 and a couple of future 2nds.
15 and Bledsoe for Grant, then draft Eason/D.Daniels or Sochan at 13 (hopefully Eason) that would leave the Bucks25/TPE and those future 2nds for another deal. Maybe #36 + Didi + Bucks25 and the TPE could get us Harrison Barnes? Idk but Barnes+Grant+ Eason+ Nas+Watford+ GB3 gives us a bunch of modern bigs and switchable defenders.

When there's Banchero, Jabari, Chet, Ivey, Sharpe and Murray available in the top 6, I'd be very disappointed trading the #6 pick. Particularly because we wouldn't actually know who is available at #13 and #15 anyway.

I think there eventually be a top tier that is six players deep with the 3 bigs, Murray, Sharpe and Ivey.

You don't trade down when you have a chance at drafting a top tier player. You draft whoever is left at six
and figure out the roster afterwards while keeping your fingers crossed that guy at six is one of the bigs
or Murray.

It is almost a sure thing that a team will jump us in the lottery. We most likely will be picking 7 or 8 so very well may miss out on those 6 players.

I am alos getting close to being on board with a trade down if we are in the 6-8 range.

Think getting 13 + 15 lands us 2 players in a similar tier to 6-8. Dyson and Sochan at 13 and 15 would improve our defense by leaps and bounds right off the bat.

If we get the number one pick I'm shopping it for an All star/ all NBA player in their prime. That's a small small list of players i don't think would be available but I'm still going to try.


If we pick 4-6 I'm taking Murray, Ivey or Mathurin in that order assuming that the 3 bigs are gone. Too many question marks with those guys. The sure things imo are outside of the top 3 where you're gambling on one of them becoming a generational star and I don't see any of those guys having that it factor. They have high bust potential imo.


Murray, Ivey and Mathurin seem like almost guaranteed all star talent. Maybe not super star potential, but all star.

If we slide to 8 I'm trading down with Charlotte and going after Grant and Miles Turner type players with those picks in trade.