Blazers Players: Comparison / Trade Value

Butter · Post #1 » by **Butter** » Sat Jul 20, 2024 4:52 pm

In the RealGM fan forums for other teams, there is a lot of comments that we overvalue our vet players, and that our players have "toxic" salaries.

Also, I recently saw a trade idea with Darius Garland going to the Magic for similar assets that we've posted for Anfernee Simons.

Out of curiosity, I did a stats comparison between Simons and Garland. I was surprised to see that they were pretty close (stats wise), and Simons is bigger, AND has a better contract.

I thought it might be an interesting thread to compare Blazers vets production / stats with comparable players to see how the total value compares.

Butter · Post #2 » by **Butter** » Sat Jul 20, 2024 5:01 pm

Anfernee Simons vs Darius Garland

https://fanspo.com/nba/compare-players/darius-garland-1629636/anfernee-simons-1629014

Anfernee Simons
Age 25
6'3 190
62 overall contract
$25,892,857 $27,678,571 $0

https://hoopshype.com/anfernee-simons-scouting-report/

Showed his shot-making ability when given the minutes… It took years of development for him to get to this point, but looks like it paid off… Quick shooting mechanic… Converts threes at a good rate… Fearless slasher attacking the rim… Looks like he will be able to score a lot of points in his career… Can play make for teammates a bit, but he will need to improve much more here as opponents zero in on him… Needs to read the game better on the defensive end… Proven to be a legitimate starter, but needs an elite defensive wing teammate to hide his deficiencies on defense.

Darius Garland
Age 24
6'1 193
27th overall contract
$36,725,670 $39,446,090 $42,166,510 $44,886,930

https://hoopshype.com/darius-garland-scouting-report-and-accolades/

Possesses a quick jumper with good form… Quickly developed into a young star… Can hit perimeter shots off the dribble… Gets to the rim with ease… Nice touch on his floater that helps him finish over taller opponents… Point-guard size with a 2-guard’s game… Highly efficient on the pick-and-roll… Not the best defender, but has room for improvement as he gets older.

Clipsz 4 Life · Post #3 » by **Tim Lehrbach** » Sat Jul 20, 2024 5:08 pm

RealGM is obsessed with "trade value," whereas real GMs only care about improving their teams in the short-, mid-, or long-term. If somebody wants Simons, or Garland, or any player, they'll obtain him at a price they are willing to pay. That's the only real meaning of "trade value," not some objective "x player is y draft picks more valuable than player z" nonsense like they talk about at the Trades and Transactions Board.

As to this particular comparison, Garland may be a tad overrated due to draft slot and contract, but he's a good bit more capable of shepherding an NBA offense than Simons is. Neither is the archetype of a lead guard I'd want, but I prefer Garland to Simons.

Walton1one · Post #4 » by **Walton1one** » Sat Jul 20, 2024 5:32 pm

I think both Simons and Grant are worth a first round pick, but not much more value than that and of course to the right team.

Garland is a better player than Simons IMO, I think Simons is a very good offensive player, who is probably more suited to an off the bench role, as his defense is very bad, like it should not be that bad but it is.

I think the whole salary thing around Grant, less so Simons, is just an excuse for some fans to devalue our players. They are not great contracts, but I don’t think they are horrible either, and some of the contracts out there are way worse than either of these two players.

Butter · Post #5 » by **Butter** » Sat Jul 20, 2024 5:56 pm

Garland is a better player, but is he $11M better? If I'm a real GM, and I can get 80% capacity from Simons, and save $11M I can invest into another player, I'm doing that analysis.

Butter · Post #6 » by **Butter** » Sat Jul 20, 2024 5:59 pm

Tim Lehrbach wrote:RealGM is obsessed with "trade value," whereas real GMs only care about improving their teams in the short-, mid-, or long-term. If somebody wants Simons, or Garland, or any player, they'll obtain him at a price they are willing to pay. That's the only real meaning of "trade value," not some objective "x player is y draft picks more valuable than player z" nonsense like they talk about at the Trades and Transactions Board.

As to this particular comparison, Garland may be a tad overrated due to draft slot and contract, but he's a good bit more capable of shepherding an NBA offense than Simons is. Neither is the archetype of a lead guard I'd want, but I prefer Garland to Simons.

Way to kill thr vibr for the rest of us NON- Real GMs...

The critical factors in the specific comparison for me are:

1) contract
2) PG skills
3) defense

Following the theme in my previous posts, does #2 outweigh #1?

Also, how us Garlands defense?

Clipsz 4 Life · Post #7 » by **Tim Lehrbach** » Sat Jul 20, 2024 6:09 pm

Butter wrote:Way to kill thr vibr for the rest of us NON- Real GMs...

FWIW, I wasn't trying to suggest you were doing with this thread what I abhor around the site; rather, I meant to imply that we shouldn't worry too much about what other team forums or the Objective Gospel of Trade Value at the Trades and Transactions Board believe about the in-a-vacuum worth or overvaluing of Portland's players because the concept of "trade value" bandied about on RealGM doesn't mean a whole lot.

In as much as you're asking a specific question about which player you'd rather have, it's fair game.

I like Simons and think he's a fit for a team with playmakers already established as the top options on offense, but that really limits his market to teams that can maximize his strengths while covering for his weaknesses. He's not going to elevate a bad team (like Portland) because he is not a creator nor a defensive difference-maker (to put it mildly). Garland, being a better (but still suboptimal, to be sure) offensive initiator, is just going to be more desirable, IMO. Contracts might make it more of a debate, but given that most teams are operating above the cap, do you really get to utilize the savings to acquire more talent or complementary pieces?

Butter · Post #8 » by **Butter** » Sat Jul 20, 2024 6:34 pm

Tim Lehrbach wrote:
Butter wrote:Way to kill thr vibr for the rest of us NON- Real GMs...

FWIW, I wasn't trying to suggest you were doing with this thread what I abhor around the site; rather, I meant to imply that we shouldn't worry too much about what other team forums or the Objective Gospel of Trade Value at the Trades and Transactions Board believe about the in-a-vacuum worth or overvaluing of Portland's players because the concept of "trade value" bandied about on RealGM doesn't mean a whole lot.

In as much as you're asking a specific question about which player you'd rather have, it's fair game.

I like Simons and think he's a fit for a team with playmakers already established as the top options on offense, but that really limits his market to teams that can maximize his strengths while covering for his weaknesses. He's not going to elevate a bad team (like Portland) because he is not a creator nor a defensive difference-maker (to put it mildly). Garland, being a better (but still suboptimal, to be sure) offensive initiator, is just going to be more desirable, IMO. Contracts might make it more of a debate, but given that most teams are operating above the cap, do you really get to utilize the savings to acquire more talent or complementary pieces?

Really good insights and comments TL!

Butter · Post #9 » by **Butter** » Sun Jul 21, 2024 4:52 am

Comparison #2

Jerami Grant
Age 30
6'7, 210
avg. $32M season

https://hoopshype.com/jerami-grant-scouting-report-and-accolades/

SCOUTING REPORT
High-flying forward… Explosive finisher… Excellent… three-point shot to stretch the court… Great motor… Lacks strength to go one-on-one against more poweful players… Showed that he can create his shot… Has blossomed into a fantastic two-way player… All-Star caliber player now.

Butter · Post #10 » by **Butter** » Sun Jul 21, 2024 5:06 am

Comparisons #3

Matisse Tyhbuile
Age 27
6'5, 201
$11M per season

SCOUTING REPORT
A defensive ace… You will not find defenders that gifted very often… Has the ability to stay in front of players regardless of speed… Will be in the league for a long time just from his defense… Gets a ton of steals… Offensive game is still a work in progress, but has made threes at a decent clip… Ball has no reason to be in his hands on offense… This needs to change for him to take the next step.

Comps

Donte DiVincenzo, 27 yo, @$11.7M
https://fanspo.com/nba/compare-players/donte-divincenzo-1628978/matisse-thybulle-1629680

Alex Carusso, 30 yo, $9.2M
https://fanspo.com/nba/compare-players/alex-caruso-1627936/matisse-thybulle-1629680

GEE · Post #11 » by **GEE** » Sun Jul 21, 2024 6:08 am

Tim Lehrbach wrote:
Butter wrote:Way to kill thr vibr for the rest of us NON- Real GMs...

FWIW, I wasn't trying to suggest you were doing with this thread what I abhor around the site; rather, I meant to imply that we shouldn't worry too much about what other team forums or the Objective Gospel of Trade Value at the Trades and Transactions Board believe about the in-a-vacuum worth or overvaluing of Portland's players because the concept of "trade value" bandied about on RealGM doesn't mean a whole lot.

In as much as you're asking a specific question about which player you'd rather have, it's fair game.

I like Simons and think he's a fit for a team with playmakers already established as the top options on offense, but that really limits his market to teams that can maximize his strengths while covering for his weaknesses. He's not going to elevate a bad team (like Portland) because he is not a creator nor a defensive difference-maker (to put it mildly). Garland, being a better (but still suboptimal, to be sure) offensive initiator, is just going to be more desirable, IMO. Contracts might make it more of a debate, but given that most teams are operating above the cap, do you really get to utilize the savings to acquire more talent or complementary pieces?

Thank You for having the courage to be in the - "I like Simons" camp... It's a small community here. He's been really nice IMO and in his 6th year I think and I'm reminded how he sat for several years behind Dame learning, then when he's possibly good enough to shine, the Blazers decide to go into full Tank-Mode for two more seasons. Simply put... I think Simons will be a Silencer to many next year... IF IF IF Chauncey proves to be the correct choice as HC. We shall see.

I'm also not feeling that Cronin, Chauncey and especially Simons have all intentions of NOT TANKING another whole season, just to have a shot at the next possibly over-hyped rookie sensation. I personally think we are now fairly BUILT, with solid depth at all 5 positions, if TL can produce. I think the Blazers (as best as they can be) are in win-now mode, and considering we haven't yet seen what this group can do, IF ALL PLAYED AT THE SAME TIME, which again... we haven't yet seen.

Another rotation option, to balance defense / offense strength could be to start games with a Simons, Thybulle, Grant trio with Scoot, Sharpe and Deni backing up. Also knowing we can always play Grant at some 4, I think makes us a very dangerous team next year.

I strongly think this coming season's success or failure will be decided almost 100% by our coach... Mr. Chauncey Billups.
RIP CITY!!!

zzaj · Post #12 » by **zzaj** » Sun Jul 21, 2024 6:21 am

I tend to agree with TL, that actual GMs care (and are privy to) A LOT of things that RealGMers just have no clue about. On realGM things like locker room presence gets lumped in with other low-key positives, but I think GMs put that very near the top in things that are important.

I actually think with Grant that situation means a ton. If he had been a contributing part of a winning team at all during his career, I think he’d be viewed differently.

Also, Chauncey’s SL interview was telling—talking about how Portland had a lot of “cool guys”…I took that as a bit of a call-out to Simons and Grant, and their non-vocal, non-personalities.

Also, Grant has gotten notably worse on defense, and his rebounding is obviously very not good. Amazing that if he just grabbed 3 more rbs a game he’d likely be thought of very differently on RealGM.

Butter · Post #13 » by **Butter** » Sun Jul 21, 2024 12:15 pm

zzaj wrote:I tend to agree with TL, that actual GMs care (and are privy to) A LOT of things that RealGMers just have no clue about. On realGM things like locker room presence gets lumped in with other low-key positives, but I think GMs put that very near the top in things that are important.

I actually think with Grant that situation means a ton. If he had been a contributing part of a winning team at all during his career, I think he’d be viewed differently.

Also, Chauncey’s SL interview was telling—talking about how Portland had a lot of “cool guys”…I took that as a bit of a call-out to Simons and Grant, and their non-vocal, non-personalities.

Also, Grant has gotten notably worse on defense, and his rebounding is obviously very not good. Amazing that if he just grabbed 3 more rbs a game he’d likely be thought of very differently on RealGM.

I agree. I don't get to watch a lot of games where I live, so my info is restricted to what I can find on the web. I was VERY surprised at how close Grant's stats were in the player comparisons in all of the links I posted.

I had a similar thought, his intangibles must not be as good as some of those players...OR...he's just very under-rated.

Walton1one · Post #14 » by **Walton1one** » Sun Jul 21, 2024 4:25 pm

Yeah, I went down the Grant vs Wiggins comparison hole as well, after GS fans were stating Grant wasn’t an upgrade/better than Wiggins.

In short, yes Grant is better, and the trend the last 3yrs on Wiggins is not good, nor is his contract.

Wizenheimer · Post #15 » by **Wizenheimer** » Mon Jul 22, 2024 3:14 pm

I agree with TL that often discussions get bogged down around here (and elsewhere) about comparative trade values. The weird thing about that is we don't know what a player's trade value is unless he's traded, and even then ancillary parts of a trade can make that confusing

I think it's safe to say that the Blazer veterans: Grant-Ant-Ayton-Thybulle-Timelord are at most, role-playing members of a supporting cast for a good team. Not really good 3rd options but more like 4th options. The only player of that 5 that might actually alter a good team's trajectory is a healthy Timelord, and that player might not ever be

generically, I'd estimate that Grant probably has the most value; or at least be valued by the most teams because he's a wing that has been shooting 40% on three's for a couple of seasons. Wings are probably the most coveted players

The best role for Simons is as a 6th man and I'd say that's obvious. I'm not sure how many teams would be looking to have a 26M/year 6th man though. However many it is I'd think it would be more than the teams looking at Simons as a starter

Ayton's flaws and salary probably make him difficult to move

Butter · Post #16 » by **Butter** » Mon Jul 22, 2024 10:25 pm

Wizenheimer wrote:I agree with TL that often discussions get bogged down around here (and elsewhere) about comparative trade values. The weird thing about that is we don't know what a player's trade value is unless he's traded, and even then ancillary parts of a trade can make that confusing

I think it's safe to say that the Blazer veterans: Grant-Ant-Ayton-Thybulle-Timelord are at most, role-playing members of a supporting cast for a good team. Not really good 3rd options but more like 4th options. The only player of that 5 that might actually alter a good team's trajectory is a healthy Timelord, and that player might not ever be

generically, I'd estimate that Grant probably has the most value; or at least be valued by the most teams because he's a wing that has been shooting 40% on three's for a couple of seasons. Wings are probably the most coveted players

The best role for Simons is as a 6th man and I'd say that's obvious. I'm not sure how many teams would be looking to have a 26M/year 6th man though. However many it is I'd think it would be more than the teams looking at Simons as a starter

Ayton's flaws and salary probably make him difficult to move

Good discussion points. And I think the Celtics have proven 2 thing:

1- championship teams need more than a Big 3
2- teams are going to have to spend big to get those players

I somewhat disagree that the Blazers are 4th best on all teams, but maybe you're right (see #1 above).

I have also come to terms that your description of Simons is probably right. I've compared him to Vinny Johnson in other threads, that may be the case.

My instinct is that the Blazers will stick with Ayton through the end of his contract. And out of all the current large contract vets, I'm ok with him starting while Clingan develops.

The big problem with all of this is that the Blazers will likely have to wait till closer to the trade deadline to move the vets, which will impact their Capture the Flagg campaign.

Cronin is probably a year too late to move some of these jokers.

Wizenheimer · Post #17 » by **Wizenheimer** » Tue Jul 23, 2024 1:34 am

Butter wrote:
Wizenheimer wrote:I agree with TL that often discussions get bogged down around here (and elsewhere) about comparative trade values. The weird thing about that is we don't know what a player's trade value is unless he's traded, and even then ancillary parts of a trade can make that confusing

I think it's safe to say that the Blazer veterans: Grant-Ant-Ayton-Thybulle-Timelord are at most, role-playing members of a supporting cast for a good team. Not really good 3rd options but more like 4th options. The only player of that 5 that might actually alter a good team's trajectory is a healthy Timelord, and that player might not ever be

generically, I'd estimate that Grant probably has the most value; or at least be valued by the most teams because he's a wing that has been shooting 40% on three's for a couple of seasons. Wings are probably the most coveted players

The best role for Simons is as a 6th man and I'd say that's obvious. I'm not sure how many teams would be looking to have a 26M/year 6th man though. However many it is I'd think it would be more than the teams looking at Simons as a starter

Ayton's flaws and salary probably make him difficult to move

Good discussion points. And I think the Celtics have proven 2 thing:

1- championship teams need more than a Big 3
2- teams are going to have to spend big to get those players

I somewhat disagree that the Blazers are 4th best on all teams, but maybe you're right (see #1 above).

I have also come to terms that your description of Simons is probably right. I've compared him to Vinny Johnson in other threads, that may be the case.

My instinct is that the Blazers will stick with Ayton through the end of his contract. And out of all the current large contract vets, I'm ok with him starting while Clingan develops.

The big problem with all of this is that the Blazers will likely have to wait till closer to the trade deadline to move the vets, which will impact their Capture the Flagg campaign.

Cronin is probably a year too late to move some of these jokers.

IMO, Cronin made the mess with a series of blunders last summer....

* he did not have to trade for Ayton but apparently has wanted him for a couple of seasons. I count that as a mistake he made a little worse by investing a 7th pick in a backup for Ayton

* Cronin could have routed Timelord to another team, IMO, even if it was just for a couple of 2nd's. Of all the teams in the NBA, Portland is the last team that should have traded for an injury-prone big man

* Cronin did not need to sign Grant to that 5 year/160M deal. No other team would have given him a 5 years deal and no other team would have given him more than 20M/year

* Cronin did not have to match the offer sheet to Thybulle. That was utterly stupid and it hamstrings Portland's cap/tax option this year, and next year

* and after being around for longer than Olshey, Cronin should have recognized the fallacy of investing heavily in yet another undersized, no-defense starting SG like Simons. Portland failed with CJ in that role for 7 years. Now it looks like they will fail with Simons in that role for the 10th straight season

IMO, Cronin's 2023 off-season wasn't as big a disater as Olshey's 2016 off-season, but it's looking pretty bad right now

Butter · Post #18 » by **Butter** » Tue Jul 23, 2024 2:08 am

Wiz, I agree on most of this post.

To me, the most egregious errors were Grant for 5 years and Tice.

At worst, he could have signed Grant for 3 years.
That would have left him with 2 years left, thr same as Ayton and Simons.

With Matice, he is a better, but duplicative player as Camarra, maybe Murray, especially now that they have Avidja. Forget Miniya, Banton, McGowen and Rupert.

I am actually ok with taking a swing on Ayton. Cronin was probably trying to save face with the Dame trade, and probably hoped Ayton could increase his value if he was featured in Portland.

Walton1one · Post #19 » by **Walton1one** » Tue Jul 23, 2024 4:20 pm

Matching Thybulle to get some value for an asset is all fine, unless you get stuck with said asset, which appears to be the case? Why he is still on the team is a mystery to me, Unless they cannot even unload him now for a 2nd round pick.

The contract given to Grant is entirely on Cronin, it is clear they gave him a promise to pay him and yes, they bid against themselves, same thing they did with Simons. Now it appears that even though there may be some interest among other teams, for both of those players, they are not going to give up a lot because of those contracts.

Given Williams well-known injury, history, it is baffling to me that they did not reroute him right away, and now coming off yet another injury, teams are surprise, leery of giving much value for him

DusterBuster · Post #20 » by **DusterBuster** » Thu Jul 25, 2024 1:08 am

I hope Cronin has enjoyed his extended summer vacation.