CBS sports

[Norm2953]

CBS sports has ranked all traded FRP (swaps) and the Blazers UNP 2029 pick from the Bucks is ranked as the
#1 traded draft pick asset

https://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/ranking-all-68-traded-future-nba-first-round-picks-suns-face-surprising-rival-for-dubious-honor-of-no-1/

Now this has to be taken as a grain of salt for nobody knows who will be in the 2029 class but in 2024
with the specter of another 20 win season on the horizon, the value of the three picks (swaps) coming
from the Bucks, hopefully will lead to a light at the end of the tunnel. Those three picks (swaps) are
ranked 9,1,7 from 2028, 2029, 2030.

[PDXKnight]

We may not get 28 the way things are looking. At least according to realgm the pick needs to be conveyed to Chicago by 2027 in order for that 28 swap possibility to happen

[Village Idiot]

Thanks Norm. Really interesting analysis.

[Norm2953]

One would only hope Portland by 2027 would be in position to compete for a play in spot

A lot depends on Scoot/SS but Portland does some hope up front that Clingan would be a solid defensive
center, and Deni will be Portland's best SF since Batum. Portland if they end up doing nothing, can just
allow Simons and Ayton walk away in free agency in two seasons, giving them some flexibility moving
forward. Use that salary flexibility to make deals to get guys on solid contracts, especially if Scoot/SS
don't become the players the teams hopes they will be.

The goal is not to just mindlessly tank every season, in the hopes of lottery fortune. There is no way to
know if any of those Milwaukee future picks will be any good, for it assumes there be solid top 5 guys
in each draft. Team does have a responsibility to field a marketable product on the court and nobody
knows who will be the guys in the 2028-30 drafts for those guys are 13-15 years old today.

[Norm2953]

One would only hope Portland by 2027 would be in position to compete for a play in spot

A lot depends on Scoot/SS but Portland does some hope up front that Clingan would be a solid defensive
center, and Deni will be Portland's best SF since Batum. Portland if they end up doing nothing, can just
allow Simons and Ayton walk away in free agency in two seasons, giving them some flexibility moving
forward. Use that salary flexibility to make deals to get guys on solid contracts, especially if Scoot/SS
don't become the players the teams hopes they will be.

The goal is not to just mindlessly tank every season, in the hopes of lottery fortune. There is no way to
know if any of those Milwaukee future picks will be any good, for it assumes there be solid top 5 guys
in each draft. Team does have a responsibility to field a marketable product on the court and nobody
knows who will be the guys in the 2028-30 drafts for those guys are 13-15 years old today.

One thing to add is Baylor freshman SG VJ Edgecombe who played this summer on the Bahamas Olympics
team with Ayton.

Assuming he stays healthy and has a solid freshman season, there is a real chance he would be Portland's
2025 FRP.

[Walton1one]

Well, unless POR either makes the play in\playoff in the next [4] years [25/26/27/28], then the MIL swap becomes null\void and POR gives up their 28' 2nd instead. The trade Olshey made with CHI was one of the worst trades a POR GM has ever made.

Olshey dealt a future 1st\lotto protected from 22'-28' (locking up POR 1st round picks for SEVEN years) and DJ Jr for Larry Nance Jr. CLE got Lauri Markannen for Larry Nance Jr & a 2nd round pick, lol. That is some horrendous GM'ing there

[mighty_duck]

Well, unless POR either makes the play in\playoff in the next [4] years [25/26/27/28], then the MIL swap becomes null\void and POR gives up their 28' 2nd instead. The trade Olshey made with CHI was one of the worst trades a POR GM has ever made.

Not quite.
We lose the swap if
1. we don't make the playoffs* 25/26/27
2. We DO make the playoffs* in 28
If we don't make the playoffs in 25/26/27/28, we will send a 2nd to Chicago, and be able to swap with Milwaukee.

* It's actually top 14 protected, so we can potentially make the playoffs/play in, and still not trigger the trade to Chicago.

Still, you are correct . That it was a horrible trade!

[PDXKnight]

Well, unless POR either makes the play in\playoff in the next [4] years [25/26/27/28], then the MIL swap becomes null\void and POR gives up their 28' 2nd instead. The trade Olshey made with CHI was one of the worst trades a POR GM has ever made.

Not quite.
We lose the swap if
1. we don't make the playoffs* 25/26/27
2. We DO make the playoffs* in 28
If we don't make the playoffs in 25/26/27/28, we will send a 2nd to Chicago, and be able to swap with Milwaukee.

* It's actually top 14 protected, so we can potentially make the playoffs/play in, and still not trigger the trade to Chicago.

Still, you are correct . That it was a horrible trade!

How confident are you in the bolded part?

According to realgm, future drafts detailed

2028 first round draft pick from Milwaukee (Portland outgoing)
Portland has the right to swap its 2028 1st round pick, protected for selections 15-30 if Portland has not conveyed a 1st round pick to Chicago by 2027, for Milwaukee's 2028 1st round pick [Milwaukee-Phoenix-Portland, 9/27/2023

[Wizenheimer]

I think setting #1 value for that 2029 Milwaukee pick is pretty substantial assumption. I do think it has the potential to be a high lottery pick, and the swap the following year could be valuable too.

But, for all we know, that 2029 draft could end up worse than the 2024 draft; and 2024 was one of the worst in the last 20 years. Considering how highly rated the 2025 draft is, I'd think a 10th pick in 2025 might be more valuable than a speculative unprotected pick in 2029 (although I haven't looked at the list of traded pick and swaps, so maybe?). The NBA is a lot about immediacy and 2-3 year windows. 2029 is 5 years away and even if a great player is landed with that 2029 pick, before he starts to make a significant impact it could be 2031-33; that's 7-9 years from now.

Portland sucks right now and they have a lot of purgatory players on high salaries. They need elite talent now, not 7-9 years from now. Speculative value that far from this season doesn't mean much when the Blazers are losing 50-60 games a year

besides all that, the 2029 first was the 'best' future value Portland landed for Damian Lillard. The acquisition cost was very high and that needs to be part of the equation

[Norm2953]

i do think the odds favor the 2029 to be an average draft for historically, the frequency of a
truly bad draft run in conjunction with a draft with a super elite player. Highly unlikely both
2029/30 will be bad drafts.

Meanwhile back to 2024/5, the key to this season will be Scoot/SS. If either are struggling, real chance
Portland will replace them with a top 5 pick in the 2025 draft.

[mighty_duck]

How confident are you in the bolded part?

According to realgm, future drafts detailed

2028 first round draft pick from Milwaukee (Portland outgoing)
Portland has the right to swap its 2028 1st round pick, protected for selections 15-30 if Portland has not conveyed a 1st round pick to Chicago by 2027, for Milwaukee's 2028 1st round pick [Milwaukee-Phoenix-Portland, 9/27/2023

100%. That's why there is a strange 15-30 protection on the pick swap (and not the usual, say top 14 protected).

Assuming the pick doesn't convey in 25/26/27.
in '28:
If we land in 1-14( we don't make the playoffs), the pick does not convey to Chicago. We can pick swap with Milwaukee.

If we land in 15-30 (we make the playoffs*), our pick goes to Chicago. Chicago will not get the benefit of a pick swap with Milwaukee in this case (Milwaukee added that protection in the Lillard deal, and we agreed since we wouldn't benefit from it anyway/it cost us nothing).

[Wizenheimer]

How confident are you in the bolded part?

According to realgm, future drafts detailed

2028 first round draft pick from Milwaukee (Portland outgoing)
Portland has the right to swap its 2028 1st round pick, protected for selections 15-30 if Portland has not conveyed a 1st round pick to Chicago by 2027, for Milwaukee's 2028 1st round pick [Milwaukee-Phoenix-Portland, 9/27/2023

100%. That's why there is a strange 15-30 protection on the pick swap (and not the usual, say top 14 protected).

Assuming the pick doesn't convey in 25/26/27.
in '28:
If we land in 1-14( we don't make the playoffs), the pick does not convey to Chicago. We can pick swap with Milwaukee.

If we land in 15-30 (we make the playoffs*), our pick goes to Chicago. Chicago will not get the benefit of a pick swap with Milwaukee in this case (Milwaukee added that protection in the Lillard deal, and we agreed since we wouldn't benefit from it anyway/it cost us nothing).

in order to make that 28 pick swap-worthy, the Blazers have to have a better record than the Bucks.That's possible, maybe not probable. I read somewhere a year or so ago (after OKC had accumulated so many swaps) that about 60% of pick swaps don't convey

[zzaj]

besides all that, the 2029 first was the 'best' future value Portland landed for Damian Lillard. The acquisition cost was very high and that needs to be part of the equation

Agreed with this, and it's something the article doesn't really weigh...

however it's also important that there is an asterisk next to Lillard's "value". We're talking about a player who publicly wanted out of the Blazer organization. That value is substantially lower than his basketball value alone. And of course it's also a player who likely would start a road of decline and still had some pretty substantial money years left on his books.

[Walton1one]

Well, unless POR either makes the play in\playoff in the next [4] years [25/26/27/28], then the MIL swap becomes null\void and POR gives up their 28' 2nd instead. The trade Olshey made with CHI was one of the worst trades a POR GM has ever made.

Not quite.
We lose the swap if
1. we don't make the playoffs* 25/26/27
2. We DO make the playoffs* in 28
If we don't make the playoffs in 25/26/27/28, we will send a 2nd to Chicago, and be able to swap with Milwaukee.

* It's actually top 14 protected, so we can potentially make the playoffs/play in, and still not trigger the trade to Chicago.

Still, you are correct . That it was a horrible trade!

Thanks for the clarification, it is confusing.

Basically, all of this means that the MIL pick swap is not overly valuable, as POR would have to finish in the lottery in 2028 (triggering their 28' 2nd to CHI) and MIL would then have to also finish in the lottery and their pick would have to be lower (better) than POR pick in order for the swap to occur.

What are the restrictions on the swap? I am assuming that it can be made after the ping pong balls?

Of course, if POR makes the playoffs in 25/26/27 their pick is conveyed to CHI. Not sure that will be occurring in the next 2 years at minimum though unless Cronin has completely lost his mind. Olshey is the gift that keeps giving...

[HoopsFanAZ]

How bad the original trade was is one thing.

There's nothing actually preventing Portland from settling the pick to Chicago. If the pick doesn't convey, Chicago gets a 2nd rounder. But if whatever scenario would keep Portland from swapping with a much-worse-than-now Milwaukee, Portland could instead convey their 3rd best pick of 2029 to Chicago. At least it would guarantee a 1st rounder to Chicago. The 2nd best goes to Washington and Portland still has the best pick. Other players in trade could satisfy the deal with Chicago if that Milwaukee swap becomes important. Or convey 2 or 3 2nd rounders to get the may-never-convey-1st-round pick back from Chicago.

It is something to watch and to plan for. It's like waiting for Bledsoe's final year of dead money go away. Something to avoid in future dealings and cap management.

[ebott]

Portland sucks and they're always gonna suck.

Fixed

[GEE]

I continue to be in the minority, letting go of the Olshey days and instead embracing what Cronin has built over the last couple years. We obviously sucked the last couple years, but I have no reason to NOT believe that the Blazers could make some noise next year. We are nowhere near the same team as we were just two years ago. In fact, just look at the roster flexability if we wanted to play BIG, while still playing at a crazy up-tempo pace. 9-10 deep keeping all legs fresh, all game long, and throughout the long seasons' grind. I think Cronin has done quite well honestly, especially considering the mess he was left with. KUDOS!

Chauncey will be the key this year IMO. No more tanking, the talent is there I think, and it is now up to Chauncey to execute. Starting line-up/s and rotations, along with what playing style and stategy Billups decides to deploy on both ends of the floor, is of most interest to me. Time will tell, but I remain quite optimistic, despite alll that seem to want to trade just about any player we currently have for a second round picks and scrubs. I just don't get it. I think I might actually like every player we currently have.

RIP CITY!!!

[Norm2953]

I'm not as negative as much of this board seems to be for even the Milwaukee pick swap value
is viewed negatively for it simply means Portland has once again earned itself a better pick
than the swap would bring.

Needless to say, nobody knows who will be in the 2028-30 drafts but it would be absurd to think
there would be three bad drafts in a row. Ridding themselves of Dame's three remaining years
of his contract (approx $160 Million) does help the bottom line

[GEE]

I'm not as negative as much of this board seems to be for even the Milwaukee pick swap value
is viewed negatively for it simply means Portland has once again earned itself a better pick
than the swap would bring.

Needless to say, nobody knows who will be in the 2028-30 drafts but it would be absurd to think
there would be three bad drafts in a row. Ridding themselves of Dame's three remaining years
of his contract (approx $160 Million) does help the bottom line

Interesting you mention the Bucks return... If one looks at what Cronin truely did by reshaping the whole EC with the Dame trade, and if you look deeper, ome can see the potential for a certain player from Greece that just might become frustrated in his current zip code.

How funny would it be if Cronin ended up using those picks to increase his position as the best trade partner, in the event said Greek surprised us all and chose to dawn the Red and Black. Dreaming of course, but I've seen stranger things happen in the NBA, and I just think it would be absolutely hillarious if Cronin somehow managed to convince all parties and ultimately turn Dame into GA in the not so distant future... like before Dame's contract ends. I would lose my **** if that ended up happening, but again, mostly just dreamin'.

[BlazersBroncos]

Giannis would love the talent and market PDX has to offer.