RealGM

Since the season is about to start, I thought I would start a new IN season rumor thread:

I'll start this thread off with something that Aaron Fentress apparently mentioned recently (not that I think he is "in the know") regarding the Sharpe injury and how he expected both Banton & Graham to make the roster.

The only way that could be is if POR cut a player with a guaranteed contract or if there was some sort of trade {assuming minor).

https://basketball.realgm.com/wiretap/277569/Lakers-Interested-In-Upgrade-At-Center

Is there any scenario where Robert Williams to the Lakers nets us another 1st?

LAL is too asset poor to move a FRP for RWIII.

We could probably get both the LAL and LAC 2025 SRPs though. I probably would take that.

Found the article:

According to Fentress, in the absence of Sharpe, both Banton and Graham are expected to start the year with Portland. Banton is on a partially guaranteed deal, while Graham’s contract is non-guaranteed. “He’s just such a hooper,” Billups said of Banton. “He’s just such a good basketball player.” In order to hang onto both Banton and Graham into the regular season, Portland would have to trade or waive a player with a guaranteed contract. Fentress doesn’t specify who might be the odd man out.[

https://www.hoopsrumors.com/2024/10/blazers-notes-reath-williams-guards.html

I have to imagine that if this WAS true, then it would mean POR will be making a trade, probably minor.

Otherwise, if they were releasing a player, there are really only 3 options that I can see?

Reath, who is signed thru 25/26 - $2/$2.2mil owed
Walker, who is signed just thru 24/25 - $2mil owed
Rupert, who is signed through 25/26. but has a club option for 25/26 - $1.9mil owed

I can't imagine it would be Camara or Murray

Rupert is super young, he doesn't turn 21 until next May, but also he is super raw, likely needing several more years to develop. It would seem pretty shortsighted to cut him for a much older (Graham is 29) temporary piece.

Walker, will be an RFA at the end of the season, and maybe POR has no plans to resign him, but he is only 22, and unlike Rupert he actually can be used on the floor on occasion, even if, IMO, he is just a bench depth type of player

Reath is 28, the 4th center on a team that doesn't need 4 of them, so IMO he would make the most sense to trade. Trading Williams would be ideal of course, but given his recent setback and history of injuries, POR may want to hold onto him to try and build up his value (if they can), but I would not be surprised if he was dealt now either.

Or maybe, some 3 for 1 trade (Reath\Walker\Thybulle) is still out there on the horizon?

I'd trade any of Murray, Reath, or Walker -- or all three -- for second round picks. They do not have futures here, which makes additional shots at the draft worth giving them up. Also opens roster spots for veteran influence or a look at different young long shots... if there is anything left out there worth signing.

Thybulle, I go back and forth on. I do not believe teams would give more than a second rounder or two for him, and keeping him around to contribute to a passable defense that keeps other guys in appropriate roles to learn in makes some sense. But then I realize I'd hardly even remember he'd been here if he was moved, so I look towards the future and figure the team should take anything they can get.

Ultimately, if the Blazers could cash those four guys in for like 5-7 second round picks and open up roster spots, it's worth doing.

I'm in the camp of trading Williams for whatever we can get as the preferred option.

After that, dealing Murray or Reath for a 2nd rounder is my next favorite option.

kdawg32086 wrote:I'm in the camp of trading Williams for whatever we can get as the preferred option.

Oh yeah, I move Timelord for sure, if possible. I don't know that teams have dead salary to match, though, and once you start talking rotation players, the risk of giving up an asset for him seems too great.

Tim Lehrbach wrote:

kdawg32086 wrote:I'm in the camp of trading Williams for whatever we can get as the preferred option.

Oh yeah, I move Timelord for sure, if possible. I don't know that teams have dead salary to match, though, and once you start talking rotation players, the risk of giving up an asset for him seems too great.

Agreed. Kinda hard to move him when 29/30 teams are over the salary cap (at that point, why even have one?).

kdawg32086 wrote:

Tim Lehrbach wrote:

kdawg32086 wrote:I'm in the camp of trading Williams for whatever we can get as the preferred option.

Oh yeah, I move Timelord for sure, if possible. I don't know that teams have dead salary to match, though, and once you start talking rotation players, the risk of giving up an asset for him seems too great.

Agreed. Kinda hard to move him when 29/30 teams are over the salary cap (at that point, why even have one?).

Under the new CBA, being over the salary cap is irrelevant. There are (3) mileposts

The salary cap is: $140,588,000

Luxury tax $170,814,000
1st Apron threshold: $178,132,000
2nd Apron threshold: $188,931,000

The luxury tax is only important for teams Iike POR who are lousy. Teams pay $1.50 for every $1 they are over the salary cap and for every year they are over they pay a Repeat Offender penalty for teams that are over the salary cap in 3 of 4 seasons, thus why you see team go over for a year or dip under to "reset" the repeat offender penalty. Half of the total money collected gets distributed to the teams that are under the luxury tax.

Currently, for this year there are 15 teams under the luxury tax

The 1st apron is where teams are penalized\restricted:

Sign-and-trades: Teams cannot acquire a player via sign-and-trade if the player would keep the team above the apron.

Trade salary: Teams cannot take back more salary in a trade than they send out.

Trade exceptions: Teams cannot use trade exceptions created in the previous season.

Bought-out players: Teams cannot sign bought-out players who made more than the non-taxpayer mid-level exception.

Salary matching: Teams must match salaries in trades within 110%, instead of 125% for teams below the apron.

Waived players: Teams cannot sign a player waived during the regular season whose salary was over the midlevel exception.

There are 21 teams currently under the 1st apron. I think most teams hover back & forth b\t the luxury tax line and 1st apron line.

The 2nd apron is where the nasty penalties\restrictions are, and so far very few teams are willing to go over and face those negatives. All but (4) teams (MIL\BOS\MIN\PHX) are under the 2nd apron currently

Trade restrictions: Teams can't trade multiple players in the same deal, send cash in trades, or aggregate contracts. They also can't acquire players in sign-and-trades.

Mid-level exception: Teams can't use the mid-level exception in free agency.

First-round pick restrictions: Teams that finish the season above the second apron have their first-round pick seven years out frozen. If a team is above the second apron at least twice in four seasons, the pick is moved to the bottom of the first round.

Salary matching: Teams are limited to 100% salary matching in trades.

Trade exceptions: Teams can't use trade exceptions from previous years.

Hard-capping: Teams below the second apron that violate any of the above restrictions are automatically hard-capped at the second apron. This means they can't make any moves that cause their payroll to exceed it.

So here is an interesting move that just happened. SAC traded McDaniels to SA for a 2nd round pick. SA is waiving McDaniels.

Why is this interesting?

Well, this leaves SAC with 13 players on guaranteed contracts however, one of those players, Orlando Robinson, only has a $500k guarantee if he is waived by 1/10/25. Curiously, SAC is $1.085mil under the luxury tax.

Maybe a 3 for 1 trade on the horizon?

Watching Jerami handle the ball period gives me brain cancer, so I’m gonna be glad when he is gone. Otherwise I actually wouldn’t mind keeping him at all. He just does not get his role.

In other bizarre news, POR signs James Bouknight to an Exhibit 10 deal.

Why?

They have:
Simons
Scoot
Banton
Devonte Graham

Apparently, this is just a signing for the Rip City Remix, but I would have thought Graham, if he didn't make the team would head there, but then again he is 29? So maybe if he doesn't make the squad he leaves for greener pastures (another team? overseas?) instead of going to the G-league.

Signing all these PG seems odd to me, given the current shape of this roster. Considering there is no room and POR already has (3) PG players under contract.

On a side note, this adds to my Tin Foil Theory that POR will sign Danny Hurley to be the head coach next year. Bouknight is only 24 and a UCONN grad & I have a suspicion that POR could draft Alex Karaban in the 2nd round next year (they have had him in for workouts the last 2 years). Probably not, but a young team like POR could use a coach who could instill structure & discipline, and if they hired Hurley, having players (Clingan\Bouknight\Karaban?) around who have played for him might the transition for other players easier. So if you see POR acquire Jordan Hawkins or Andre Jackson, take note.

Bouknight is absolute trash and if I remember correctly he has some off court issues.

Why would Hurley choose Portland next year if UConn wins their third national championship?

Walton1one wrote:In other bizarre news, POR signs James Bouknight to an Exhibit 10 deal.

Why?

They have:
Simons
Scoot
Banton
Devonte Graham

Apparently, this is just a signing for the Rip City Remix, but I would have thought Graham, if he didn't make the team would head there, but then again he is 29? So maybe if he doesn't make the squad he leaves for greener pastures (another team? overseas?) instead of going to the G-league.

Signing all these PG seems odd to me, given the current shape of this roster. Considering there is no room and POR already has (3) PG players under contract.

On a side note, this adds to my Tin Foil Theory that POR will sign Danny Hurley to be the head coach next year. Bouknight is only 24 and a UCONN grad & I have a suspicion that POR could draft Alex Karaban in the 2nd round next year (they have had him in for workouts the last 2 years). Probably not, but a young team like POR could use a coach who could instill structure & discipline, and if they hired Hurley, having players (Clingan\Bouknight\Karaban?) around who have played for him might the transition for other players easier. So if you see POR acquire Jordan Hawkins or Andre Jackson, take note.

Bouknight is also a lowlife.

Walton1one wrote:In other bizarre news, POR signs James Bouknight to an Exhibit 10 deal.

Why?

They have:
Simons
Scoot
Banton
Devonte Graham

Apparently, this is just a signing for the Rip City Remix, but I would have thought Graham, if he didn't make the team would head there, but then again he is 29? So maybe if he doesn't make the squad he leaves for greener pastures (another team? overseas?) instead of going to the G-league.

Signing all these PG seems odd to me, given the current shape of this roster. Considering there is no room and POR already has (3) PG players under contract.

On a side note, this adds to my Tin Foil Theory that POR will sign Danny Hurley to be the head coach next year. Bouknight is only 24 and a UCONN grad & I have a suspicion that POR could draft Alex Karaban in the 2nd round next year (they have had him in for workouts the last 2 years). Probably not, but a young team like POR could use a coach who could instill structure & discipline, and if they hired Hurley, having players (Clingan\Bouknight\Karaban?) around who have played for him might the transition for other players easier. So if you see POR acquire Jordan Hawkins or Andre Jackson, take note.

I am all for tin hats...but I SERIOUSLY doubt Hurley would move to the NBA. For one, he simply couldn't get away with his coaching style with professionals--at least not in today's NBA. Two, why would he sacrifice his stellar collegiate coaching career?

I think the fact that he met with LAL and even entertained an offer, shows his interest in the NBA. As for his style not working in the NBA, maybe, but I also think he is smart enough to know that and would tone down some aspects as a result. Also, having him come to a young team rather than a team full of vets (let alone LeBron & Davis), could be a MAJOR factor. He can install his system from the ground up and not have to battle wills with older vets who think they know better. Also, again, having actual players who played for him, would be beneficial.

That LAL job would have been a disaster for him (heck pretty much ANY young\college) coach, I give him kudos for recognizing that.

As for known interest, this article says the opposite or at least leaves the door open

Hurley admitted the Lakers probably could have made him an offer that he could not have refused.

"To leave, there probably is [a number]," he said. "To leave a place at any moment in your life, to say that it's not a motivating factor ... the finances to leave a place is definitely a thing.

https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/40342077/dan-hurley-rejecting-lakers-offer-was-not-leverage-play

LAL offered 6\$70, one of the rumors was 8/$100
UCONN gave him 6\$50

You make him an offer like 6/$90, the chance to mold a young team into his structure, a say in the room when it comes to personnel decisions, some familiarity with a few of his players, an owner\GM who will generally stay out of his way and a nice place to live. POR could make it compelling.

Hurley is actually coming on 1080 right now. Wonder if he comments about Bouknight, and I wonder if POR talked to him before they brought him in. Also, trying to find the behind the scenes draft of Clingan, where Hurley said some very positive things about POR mgmt.

Interesting that Bouknight had been working out @ UCONN since he was released

Also saw this and thought it was interesting:

Bouknight was battling poor mental health while with Charlotte and became involved in various off-court incidents.

I question how much support he was getting in CHA, especially surrounded by a bunch of knuckleheaded (LaMelo, Miles Bridges, Grant Williams, Brandon Miller?) players

You don't waive or trade Rupert. Is there a 90% chance he's a bust? Probably. But large wingspan 3&D wings are rare. Ideal use of a 12-15th/2-way spot.

Lets be real though - if Hurley was making the NBA jump a bigger market would snag him for sure IMO. I also dont see Jody paying the guy what it will take to make the NBA jump (Which will be in the 12-15M AV range).