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New Strategy for NEXT YEAR?

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New Strategy for NEXT YEAR? 

Post#1 » by Butter » Fri Dec 27, 2024 10:36 pm

Maybe there's a reason Cronin hasn't made crappy deals for second round picks yet.

After next season, the Blazers have the potential to gain serious cap space from expiring deals, but we are painfully aware that the Blazers struggle to sign free agents on the open market. However, the new CBA presents another option to improve this franchise. Teams over the salary aprons may become desperate to dump quality players for cap relief. The Blazers might be able to swap out expiring deals for legit franchise cornerstones. Made not super stars, but potentially All-Stars.

If the Blazers can get a legit player from this draft, develop/resign Shaedon, and trade for stars from cap strapped teams, could the vault into winning play off games by next year?


2ND APRON THRESHOLD: $188,931,000
1ST APRON THRESHOLD: $178,132,000
2024 NBA salary cap: $140,588,000
2025 NBA salary cap: $154,600,000

Team 2024-25 2025-26

Team 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27
1 Phoenix Suns $217,815,821 $224,069,321 $152,101,890
2 Minnesota T-wolves $203,528,446 $190,140,062 $136,756,790
3 Boston Celtics $197,069,191 $226,047,874 $207,690,827
4 Milwaukee Bucks. $193,097,305 $181,706,942 $127,258,933
5 Los Angeles Lakers $188,185,999 $181,988,005 $109,216,481
6 New York Knicks. $185,972,960 $194,354,847 $167,478,483
7 Miami Heat $182,704,768 $191,512,799 $94,604,032
8 Denver Nuggets. $182,574,315 $199,480,856 $202,401,057
9 Philadelphia 76ers $181,511,437 $186,680,351 $170,971,629
10 Golden State Warriors $176,801,591 $151,867,302 $160,338,109
11 Dallas Mavericks $176,105,780 $175,637,080 $96,563,638
12 Cleveland Cavaliers $173,375,477 $191,976,005 $196,567,243
13 Los Angeles Clippers $173,279,115 $167,915,644 $108,599,480
14 New Orleans Pelicans $172,651,128 $157,112,547 $137,289,565
15 Indiana Pacers $170,687,486 $167,548,889 $170,205,890
16 Atlanta Hawks $169,529,070 $168,810,401 $165,672,486
17 Memphis Grizzlies $169,013,097 $162,608,141 $119,396,044
18 Brooklyn Nets $167,351,740 $75,506,685 $59,716,079
19 Portland Trail Blazers $167,086,613 $170,831,585 $76,426,582
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Re: New Strategy for NEXT YEAR 

Post#2 » by Butter » Sat Dec 28, 2024 12:00 am

For example, but not limited to

T-Wolves
Jaden McDaniels MIN $23,017,242 $24,858,622 $26,700,001 $28,541,380 $30,382,755
Julius Randle MIN $33,073,920 $30,935,520

Lakers
Anthony Davis LAL $43,219,440 $54,126,450 $58,456,566 $62,786,682

NY Knicks
OG Anunoby NYK $36,637,932 $39,568,966 $42,500,000 $45,431,034 $48,362,068
Josh Hart NYK $18,144,000 $19,472,240 $20,923,760 $22,375,280

Mia Heat
Tyler Herro MIA $29,000,000 $31,000,000 $33,000,000

Den Nuggets
Aaron Gordon DEN $22,841,455 $22,841,455 $31,978,037 $34,536,280 $37,094,523
Michael Porter Jr.DEN $35,859,950 $38,333,050 $40,806,150

Dal Mavericks
Daniel Gafford DAL $13,394,160 $14,386,320
P.J. Washington DAL $15,500,000 $14,152,174
Klay Thompson DAL $15,873,016 $16,666,667 $17,460,317

LA Clippers
Kawhi Leonard LAC $49,205,800 $50,000,000 $50,300,000

Phi 76ers
Paul George PHI $49,205,800 $51,666,090 $54,126,380 $56,586,670
Caleb Martin PHI $8,149,001 $8,556,451 $8,963,901 $9,371,351

NO Pelicans
Zion Williamson NOP $36,725,670 $39,446,090 $42,166,510 $44,886,930
Brandon Ingram NOP $36,016,200

Ind Pacers
Obi Toppin IND $12,975,000 $14,000,000 $15,000,000 $16,025,000

Mem Grizzlies
Desmond Bane MEM $34,005,250 $36,725,670 $39,446,090 $42,166,510 $44,886,930

Brk Nets
Cameron Johnson BRK $22,500,000 $20,543,478 $22,500,000



Chi Bulls
Zach LaVine CHI $43,031,940 $45,999,660 $48,967,380

Tor Raptors
RJ Barrett TOR $25,794,643 $27,705,357

Sac Kings
Domantas Sabonis SAC $40,500,000 $43,636,000 $46,772,000 $49,908,000

Jazz
23 Lauri Markkanen UTA $42,176,400 $46,394,100 $46,113,154 $49,824,681 $53,536,209

Was Wizards
Jordan Poole WAS $29,651,786 $31,848,215 $34,044,642
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Re: New Strategy for NEXT YEAR 

Post#3 » by Norm2953 » Sat Dec 28, 2024 9:09 am

I think I'd rather see what Portland could do if they could find a way to dump Grant's contract
and after they let Simons and Ayton walk.

Presumably an extension for Sharpe (hopefully not a max) would cut into that space
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Re: New Strategy for NEXT YEAR 

Post#4 » by Tim Lehrbach » Sat Dec 28, 2024 11:42 am

Norm2953 wrote:I think I'd rather see what Portland could do if they could find a way to dump Grant's contract
and after they let Simons and Ayton walk.

Presumably an extension for Sharpe (hopefully not a max) would cut into that space


With or without Grant, the Blazers have a lot of options for summer 2026. Assuming Ayton and Simons are out (:pray:), the Blazers could get to serious cap space even with Grant making $34 million and Shaedon, say, $35ish in a best-case scenario where he's extension-worthy but doesn't command a max north of $40 million/year. Scoot and Kris have team options that, at this point, could very well be declined.

Somebody else can run the numbers for my lazy arse, but I reckon if Grant + Shaedon + Deni + Clingan + Camara + two lottery picks equals $110-120 million, give or take some roster charges, there's room enough for a max free agent or absorbing just about anybody in trade.

The optimist in me wants to project that some combination of those players and picks will equal four quality starters, such that the summer acquisition could be a final piece to the puzzle type or a mature star looking for a loaded supporting cast. Realistically, Clingan, Deni, and Sharpe will be average starters, the draftees will still be developing (or may bust, as many do), and stars will not be attracted to the Timbuktu of the NBA.

Anyway, back to Norm's point, shedding the Grant contract opens up additional possibilities. Maybe somebody will have buyer's remorse on an even longer, but smaller per-year contract and be willing to swap it for Grant to give the Blazers even more flexibility. Maybe somebody is willing to take Grant with future draft picks for a major upgrade or perfect complement to an emerging core. A lot can happen in 18 months. Here's hoping it does. Whatever it is. Anything.
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Re: New Strategy for NEXT YEAR 

Post#5 » by Butter » Sat Dec 28, 2024 12:49 pm

Norm2953 wrote:I think I'd rather see what Portland could do if they could find a way to dump Grant's contract
and after they let Simons and Ayton walk.

Presumably an extension for Sharpe (hopefully not a max) would cut into that space


I have previously had a similar hope. But what do the Blazers do if they clear all that cap space? Are you hoping they sign a FA?

Trading for another teams contract will always be a more guaranteed route for small market teams. The key is to trade for the right player.

I am absolutely NOT recommending that all of the players on my second post would be good for the Blazers. Ideally it would be a player who fits the age window, may possible be under utilized, and is ready to come in and be a major contributor.

If they can find a 1st/2nd apron team that needs to dump salary this summer, after the Blazers secure a prime draft pick, I'm all for it.
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Re: New Strategy for NEXT YEAR 

Post#6 » by BlazersBroncos » Sat Dec 28, 2024 3:20 pm

One of the few teams I could see still being interested in Grant would be SAC. I can’t see us squeezing a FRP from them but they might be in panic mode and willing to take on that deal.

Something like DDR to one of the LA teams, Grant to SAC, shorter money and some SRP to PDX.
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Re: New Strategy for NEXT YEAR 

Post#7 » by Wizenheimer » Sat Dec 28, 2024 6:19 pm

Blazers could have a lot of cap-space in 2026, but probably not as many are thinking

yes, all of Simons-Ayton-Timelord-Thybulle will be UFA and their salaries will theoretically be gone

Blazers would have 6 players under contract for around 74.5M. And the salary cap will be in the 160-170M range

the first big domino will be Sharpe; he'll be on a new contract. At a 160M salary cap, a max deal for Sharpe would have a base salary of 40M. His cap-hold would be 26M so there's some maneuvering room there, but it will only exist for the off-season or until Sharpe signs his new deal

the other big dominoes are Portland's 2025 + 2026 first round picks. Depending on how high they are, those two picks could add 20M

so then, Portland could be adding 60M in payroll for 3 players bumping them up to 134-135M for 9 players. 5 roster charges would jump them up to 142-143M, leaving them with 18-25M in cap-space. They could have quite a bit less with some savvy management but who believes the Blazers will suddenly morph into having savvy management?

speaking of management, savvy or otherwise, anybody who believes that Cronin will just let Simons and Ayton walk if he hasn't traded them by that time may be delusional. I haven't seen any evidence he's actually been shopping them this season. I think it's entirely possible than Cronin believes those guys are worth re-signing. That's the nightmare outcome, but nightmare outcomes seems to be what Cronin majors in. This season and this current team being a prime example
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Re: New Strategy for NEXT YEAR 

Post#8 » by Butter » Sat Dec 28, 2024 8:24 pm

Wizenheimer wrote:Blazers could have a lot of cap-space in 2026, but probably not as many are thinking

yes, all of Simons-Ayton-Timelord-Thybulle will be UFA and their salaries will theoretically be gone

Blazers would have 6 players under contract for around 74.5M. And the salary cap will be in the 160-170M range

the first big domino will be Sharpe; he'll be on a new contract. At a 160M salary cap, a max deal for Sharpe would have a base salary of 40M. His cap-hold would be 26M so there's some maneuvering room there, but it will only exist for the off-season or until Sharpe signs his new deal

the other big dominoes are Portland's 2025 + 2026 first round picks. Depending on how high they are, those two picks could add 20M

so then, Portland could be adding 60M in payroll for 3 players bumping them up to 134-135M for 9 players. 5 roster charges would jump them up to 142-143M, leaving them with 18-25M in cap-space. They could have quite a bit less with some savvy management but who believes the Blazers will suddenly morph into having savvy management?

speaking of management, savvy or otherwise, anybody who believes that Cronin will just let Simons and Ayton walk if he hasn't traded them by that time may be delusional. I haven't seen any evidence he's actually been shopping them this season. I think it's entirely possible than Cronin believes those guys are worth re-signing. That's the nightmare outcome, but nightmare outcomes seems to be what Cronin majors in. This season and this current team being a prime example


Agreed. Pure cap space is less valuable in Portland if FAs aren't willing to sign here.

We saw the disastrous version of signing the wrong FA (like Evan Turner) and trading for other teams contracts under Neil Olshey, but he signed the wrong players.

AND, my basic theory is that with the new salary cap aprons, teams will be more desperate to get out of some of those big contracts.
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Re: New Strategy for NEXT YEAR 

Post#9 » by dckingsfan » Sat Dec 28, 2024 8:47 pm

I think this thread applies to some other teams first. It is a good strategy but I believe the time to act on it is next year.

I mean, the Nets will be able to take a couple of contracts straight up, yikes! Also, most of the teams you listed don't really have a problem (only 5) and of those some have few draft assets - so there is that.

Code: Select all

Team        2025-26

Nets       $75,506,685
Spurs     $129,024,165
Pistons   $132,042,555
Bulls     $134,774,427
Wizards   $137,536,128
Hornets   $143,623,104
Jazz      $147,059,750
Raptors   $150,735,228


https://www.spotrac.com/nba/tax/_/year/2025/sort/tax_total/dir/desc
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Re: New Strategy for NEXT YEAR 

Post#10 » by Butter » Sat Dec 28, 2024 10:17 pm

dckingsfan wrote:I think this thread applies to some other teams first. It is a good strategy but I believe the time to act on it is next year.

I mean, the Nets will be able to take a couple of contracts straight up, yikes! Also, most of the teams you listed don't really have a problem (only 5) and of those some have few draft assets - so there is that.

Code: Select all

Team        2025-26

Nets       $75,506,685
Spurs     $129,024,165
Pistons   $132,042,555
Bulls     $134,774,427
Wizards   $137,536,128
Hornets   $143,623,104
Jazz      $147,059,750
Raptors   $150,735,228


https://www.spotrac.com/nba/tax/_/year/2025/sort/tax_total/dir/desc


You're correct. The original thread is aimed at the few teams in the 2nd apron, like Phoenix, Minnesota, etc.

We'll see. Cronin could shock us all and trade the Blazers shorter contracts at the deadline this year
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Re: New Strategy for NEXT YEAR 

Post#11 » by Butter » Mon Dec 30, 2024 4:02 pm

Looking over a list of the mega contracts, I've refined my target list a bit. I will not be including franchise players like Joel Embid or Anthony Davis.

I am targeting veteran SFs, assuming the Blazers move Deni to PF


Huge contracts, BUT too old
Paul George..........PHI $49,205,800 $51,666,090 $54,126,380 $56,586,670
Kawhi Leonard.....LAC $49,205,800 $50,000,000 $50,300,000
Zach LaVine.........CHI $43,031,940 $45,999,660 $48,967,380

Huge contracts, fit Blazers age window
Zion Williamson..NOP $36,725,670 $39,446,090 $42,166,510 $44,886,930
OG Anunoby........NYK $36,637,932 $39,568,966 $42,500,000 $45,431,034 $48,362,068
Michael Porter....DEN $35,859,950 $38,333,050 $40,806,150

Big contract, fits Blazers age window
Devin Vassell.....SAS $29,347,826 $27,000,000 $27,000,000 $24,652,174 $27,000,000
RJ Barrett..........TOR $25,794,643 $27,705,357 $29,616,071
Jaden McDaniels MIN $23,017,242 $24,858,622 $26,700,001 $28,541,380 $30,382,755
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Re: New Strategy for NEXT YEAR 

Post#12 » by tester551 » Mon Dec 30, 2024 4:37 pm

Butter wrote:Looking over a list of the mega contracts, I've refined my target list a bit. I will not be including franchise players like Joel Embid or Anthony Davis.

I am targeting veteran SFs, assuming the Blazers move Deni to PF


Huge contracts, BUT too old
Paul George..........PHI $49,205,800 $51,666,090 $54,126,380 $56,586,670
Kawhi Leonard.....LAC $49,205,800 $50,000,000 $50,300,000
Zach LaVine.........CHI $43,031,940 $45,999,660 $48,967,380

Huge contracts, fit Blazers age window
Zion Williamson..NOP $36,725,670 $39,446,090 $42,166,510 $44,886,930
OG Anunoby........NYK $36,637,932 $39,568,966 $42,500,000 $45,431,034 $48,362,068
Michael Porter....DEN $35,859,950 $38,333,050 $40,806,150

Big contract, fits Blazers age window
Devin Vassell.....SAS $29,347,826 $27,000,000 $27,000,000 $24,652,174 $27,000,000
RJ Barrett..........TOR $25,794,643 $27,705,357 $29,616,071
Jaden McDaniels MIN $23,017,242 $24,858,622 $26,700,001 $28,541,380 $30,382,755

Great. Every single one is a bad contract....
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Re: New Strategy for NEXT YEAR 

Post#13 » by Butter » Mon Dec 30, 2024 5:28 pm

tester551 wrote:
Butter wrote:Looking over a list of the mega contracts, I've refined my target list a bit. I will not be including franchise players like Joel Embid or Anthony Davis.

I am targeting veteran SFs, assuming the Blazers move Deni to PF


Huge contracts, BUT too old
Paul George..........PHI $49,205,800 $51,666,090 $54,126,380 $56,586,670
Kawhi Leonard.....LAC $49,205,800 $50,000,000 $50,300,000
Zach LaVine.........CHI $43,031,940 $45,999,660 $48,967,380

Huge contracts, fit Blazers age window
Zion Williamson..NOP $36,725,670 $39,446,090 $42,166,510 $44,886,930
OG Anunoby........NYK $36,637,932 $39,568,966 $42,500,000 $45,431,034 $48,362,068
Michael Porter....DEN $35,859,950 $38,333,050 $40,806,150

Big contract, fits Blazers age window
Devin Vassell.....SAS $29,347,826 $27,000,000 $27,000,000 $24,652,174 $27,000,000
RJ Barrett..........TOR $25,794,643 $27,705,357 $29,616,071
Jaden McDaniels MIN $23,017,242 $24,858,622 $26,700,001 $28,541,380 $30,382,755

Great. Every single one is a bad contract....


Tester, that was exactly the premise of the original post. Because several of these teams are trying to alleviate big salaries, the Blazers could hypothetically take on a talented player that other teams cannot afford anymore.

I am NOT suggesting they take on bad contracts of aging players. But if they can find a talented player that fits the timeline (probably AFTER the draft), the Blazers could vault back into playoff contention.

But, it has to be the right player.
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Re: New Strategy for NEXT YEAR 

Post#14 » by Myth » Thu Jan 2, 2025 4:52 am

I really hope our plan is not to wait for our unwanted contracts to be expiring so that we can trade for unwanted contracts of other teams.
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Re: New Strategy for NEXT YEAR 

Post#15 » by Butter » Thu Jan 2, 2025 5:22 am

Myth wrote:I really hope our plan is not to wait for our unwanted contracts to be expiring so that we can trade for unwanted contracts of other teams.


I'm not suggesting this is the primary plan. But, the reality is that the new salary cap is going to force some teams to let go of real talent.
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Re: New Strategy for NEXT YEAR 

Post#16 » by JasonStern » Thu Jan 9, 2025 1:17 am

Norm2953 wrote:I think I'd rather see what Portland could do if they could find a way to dump Grant's contract
and after they let Simons and Ayton walk.


This is exactly what I have been asking for since the off-season. There is really no need to dump Simons or Ayton, as they are serviceable players, off the books after next season, and won't return much value in any trade. Grant for expirings or even a contract expiring contract next season might bruise Cronin's ego, but it opens up a ton of cap space flexibility with a team consisting primarily of rookie scale contracts.

The problem is that the Blazers need to really hit on some picks. Simons is our best player. Suck it, haters. It's true. Not excited that it's true, but it is. Then you have Deni, who we lucked into because Washington management. Then it gets murky. I'll argue Sharpe because I am a Sharpe stan, but you can make the case for Grant or even Ayton. But, when these are the players you are arguing about as the third best player on your team, that is not confidence expiring.
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Re: New Strategy for NEXT YEAR? 

Post#17 » by Butter » Tue Jan 14, 2025 2:37 am

I hadn't read this article before I made this post, but it reflects a lot of the points I was trying to put my finger on.

https://www.truehoop.com/p/the-truehoop-trade-debate
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Re: New Strategy for NEXT YEAR? 

Post#18 » by tester551 » Tue Jan 14, 2025 6:20 am

Butter wrote:I hadn't read this article before I made this post, but it reflects a lot of the points I was trying to put my finger on.

https://www.truehoop.com/p/the-truehoop-trade-debate

Somewhat interesting... but I tend not to give it much weight when there were so many errors in their understanding of the CBA.
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Re: New Strategy for NEXT YEAR 

Post#19 » by DaVoiceMaster » Tue Jan 14, 2025 6:44 am

Wizenheimer wrote:Blazers could have a lot of cap-space in 2026, but probably not as many are thinking

yes, all of Simons-Ayton-Timelord-Thybulle will be UFA and their salaries will theoretically be gone

Blazers would have 6 players under contract for around 74.5M. And the salary cap will be in the 160-170M range

the first big domino will be Sharpe; he'll be on a new contract. At a 160M salary cap, a max deal for Sharpe would have a base salary of 40M. His cap-hold would be 26M so there's some maneuvering room there, but it will only exist for the off-season or until Sharpe signs his new deal

the other big dominoes are Portland's 2025 + 2026 first round picks. Depending on how high they are, those two picks could add 20M

so then, Portland could be adding 60M in payroll for 3 players bumping them up to 134-135M for 9 players. 5 roster charges would jump them up to 142-143M, leaving them with 18-25M in cap-space. They could have quite a bit less with some savvy management but who believes the Blazers will suddenly morph into having savvy management?

speaking of management, savvy or otherwise, anybody who believes that Cronin will just let Simons and Ayton walk if he hasn't traded them by that time may be delusional. I haven't seen any evidence he's actually been shopping them this season. I think it's entirely possible than Cronin believes those guys are worth re-signing. That's the nightmare outcome, but nightmare outcomes seems to be what Cronin majors in. This season and this current team being a prime example


Time will tell. What's his nuts let LaMarcus walk. If he can get something for any of them, then great. Don't re-sign them just because no one else wants them. Grant is the guy they need to get rid of. Forget anything of substance other than an expiring or one year contract.
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Re: New Strategy for NEXT YEAR? 

Post#20 » by zzaj » Tue Jan 14, 2025 9:20 pm

If the plan is to have cap space, try and get a good FA and actually compete, then Cronin is an absolute fool.

1) Sure money talks, but Portland will be absolutely LAST on any FA's list...same as it always has been. I've always questioned the value of giving huge money to a player who doesn't really want to be here. The Blazers have to build via trade and draft.

2) If the Blazers have bulloxed up their 2025 draft by not really rebuilding, then doubling down and doing the same in the 2026 draft would be so incredibly stupid...especially in a draft that looks to be on par with 2025, and features two franchise cornerstones in AJ Dybantsa and Cameron Boozer.

EDIT: In a perfect world, the Blazers would be bottomed out right now and in a great position to get a 1-3 pick in this years draft, with similar chances in next year's draft. Adding as an example a Dylan Harper and a Cameron Boozer to this team would completely change things, and set up good things for when the pick swaps start happening down the road.

Washington got the memo. They will likely add Sarr and Flagg/Harper/Ace/Demin/Tre in back-to-back years, and will likely have a Top 5 pick next year. Think about that. If everything goes in their favor in a hypothetical world:

C - Sarr
PF - Flagg
SF - Dybantsa

...all because the team was smart about it's rebuild.

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