2025 Off-Season Strategy - What will Cronin do?

[Butter]

Now that we've all had a few days to go through the 7 stages of grief for the lack of moves at the trade deadline, I propose we shift to the off season.

Recent trends suggest Cronin prefers off season moves. It's also looking like he prefers targeting players he like (Toumani and Timelord) versus trading for future draft capitol like OKC, Houston, Brooklyn, etc.

The Blazers have some interesting factors to consider this summer:

1) likely sliding lottery position
2) Shaedon pending extension
3) 1 year deals for Ant, Ayton, Tice
4) Jerami's future
5) pending coaching change

Will the Blazers trade off all their vets and decide to suck for next year's lottery? Extend their current vets like Ayton and Ant. Use the draft pick (like Scoot Clingan), trade up, trade out (like Deni). Or, just stand pat.

One of the BIG factors hanging over the league, aside from the CBA fiscal impacts is the pending decision on expansion. Will Jody finally sell? Does that mean a new GM? We can at least expect a new coach... Right?

What are your predictions for the off season coaching candidates, trades, the draft, extensions, etc. What will Cronin do?

[Wizenheimer]

I predict the off-season will have as many Blazer trades as this trade deadline did. Further, I predict next season to look a lot like this season

yeah, I'm really pessimistic about this team. They've moved into a hideously expensive but modest home on Purgatory Lane. Treadmills in the garage and living room...two in the office

[Butter]

I predict the off-season will have as many Blazer trades as this trade deadline did. Further, I predict next season to look a lot like this season

yeah, I'm really pessimistic about this team. They've moved into a hideously expensive but modest home on Purgatory Lane. Treadmills in the garage and living room...two in the office

Wiz, I admire your consistency. The Blazers ownership and front office isn't making it easy.

[PDXKnight]

Ayton and rob will probably get extended and rob will probably have a torn acl next season right after we sign him.

This is why I wouldnt resign rob on a long deal. Too much injury risk. I'd let ayton go as well but between the two at least ayton has a better shot of playing 60 games

I was hoping Cronin wasn't delusional but watching his presser he values our vets way too much and that concerns me when it comes to extension time. A logical franchise might hold onto the expirings and weigh trade value in the off season and maybe up to the deadline before extending any money but we are no logical franchise so I fully expect extensions to be incoming this off season

[RTG HD]

I predict we finally get new ownership and they will bring in a competent GM.

[Butter]

Maybe this thread was too soon.

[Butter]

I predict we finally get new ownership and they will bring in a competent GM.

Man, if I could have one Blazers wish...

[dckingsfan]

I predict the off-season will have as many Blazer trades as this trade deadline did. Further, I predict next season to look a lot like this season

yeah, I'm really pessimistic about this team. They've moved into a hideously expensive but modest home on Purgatory Lane. Treadmills in the garage and living room...two in the office

[PDXKnight]

I predict we finally get new ownership and they will bring in a competent GM.

Man, if I could have one Blazers wish...

Are we taking the over or under 1 month before a new owner cleans house?

[zzaj]

All we have is indicators are known history...and every single piece of known history points to Jody Allen and Cronin doing absolutely nothing in the offseason, especially given the optics of how the team is playing.

Now, a lot can change. If the Blazers suddenly go 3-30 (or whatever) the rest of the way, then maybe Cronin changes his stripes and sees the past month as what it was. But I'll believe that when I see it...

[Butter]

I predict we finally get new ownership and they will bring in a competent GM.

Man, if I could have one Blazers wish...

Are we taking the over or under 1 month before a new owner cleans house?

If the Blazers ever get a new owner, definitely UNDER

[PDXKnight]

Man, if I could have one Blazers wish...

Are we taking the over or under 1 month before a new owner cleans house?

If the Blazers ever get a new owner, definitely UNDER

Id have to agree

[PDXKnight]

All we have is indicators are known history...and every single piece of known history points to Jody Allen and Cronin doing absolutely nothing in the offseason, especially given the optics of how the team is playing.

Now, a lot can change. If the Blazers suddenly go 3-30 (or whatever) the rest of the way, then maybe Cronin changes his stripes and sees the past month as what it was. But I'll believe that when I see it...

Yeah I think our best shot for pretty much all intents is to root for a bad finish to the year

[Walton1one]

I think the sobering reality is that he will do at the most, very little...

The reason?

He has no pressing need to do anything, except find a roster spot for their probable lottery pick (unless they trade it for a future pick) and maybe the ATL 2nd round pick, which as it stands now (and most likely outcome IMO) will not convey anyway, so they only have 1 pick to add to a full roster, which means he will have to do something minimal like:

- Let Banton, who is a UFA walk
- Waive Reath, his salary next year is non-guaranteed
- Decline to offer a contract to Walker, who is a RFA, thus making him a FA
- Decline the club option on Rupert, making him a FA

OR none of the above if Thybulle opts out of his deal and walks away for nothing.

There is no pressing need for him to trade any of the veterans (Simons\Grant\Ayton\RW3\Thybulle) like there was LY (to get under the luxury tax, a predicament which a team like POR should not be in the first place). POR is currently projected to have approximately $17mil under the luxury tax, more than enough to bring in a 1st round pick ($6-8mil) and resign one or both of Banton\Walker to modest deals (particularly both if Thybulle walks).

At this point, how many times does he have to do nothing before we take him for what he is?

This notion that suddenly in the offseason teams are going to meet what Cronin has valued the vets at is nonsensical IMO. They don't become any more valuable as expiring deals, unless of course, Cronin wants to take worse contracts back (speaking of Simons\Ayton\RW3 & Thybulle contracts, no team apparently, wants Grant) along with mid\minor draft capital, which he clearly has not shown an interest in doing. Mouthpieces for POR have repeatedly stated he wants players they value not, picks back in deals & that his price is the price.

I don't see him doing anything at next years' trade deadline either. I mean he hasn't made any transaction of note (not counting Banton, whom BOS basically let go for nothing) in the last THREE years, each time peddling the same excuses as he did this year. Why would next year be any different? Again, no pressing need to deal with vets then either.

I don't think anything changes until he is fired (Jody\Bert need a scapegoat after all) or this team is finally sold and divested from the hellish nightmare that is Vulcan.

[Wizenheimer]

I don't see him doing anything at next years' trade deadline either. I mean he hasn't made any transaction of note (not counting Banton, whom BOS basically let go for nothing) in the last THREE years, each time peddling the same excuses as he did this year. Why would next year be any different? Again, no pressing need to deal with vets then either.

I don't think anything changes until he is fired (Jody\Bert need a scapegoat after all) or this team is finally sold and divested from the hellish nightmare that is Vulcan.

well, at the 2023 deadline, he made two trades, but both out of necessity:

he traded Hart for Thybulle and #23. He had to extract some value for Hart because it was pretty clear that Hart was not going to re-sign with Portland. Kris Murray at 23 was kind of a meh pick, but it was a meh draft outside of the lottery. He made the Thybulle acquisition much worse by matching the dumb Dallas offer sheet

and he mostly deleted his goofy signing of Gary Payton by dumping him for some 2nd's

I have been a big Blazer fan since the first season in 1970 (was in high school). Gone thru all the highs and lows and remained an avid fan. But I have never been less of a Blazer fan than I am right now; never

the downward spiral, for me, started with a decade of Neil Olshey. When he was finally fired and Cronin elevated I really wanted to like Cronin, There was a short-lived blip of hopeful when Cronin began dismantling the idiot roster of Olshey; and when he engineered that trade for Grant

but since then...ugh. I'm convinced that Cronin engineered Dame into asking for a trade because he knew he didn't have the ability to actually try and build a contender. And while Olshey was an unpleasant condescending jerk, Cronin is much more pleasant and seems like a good guy. But as far as I can tell, there is very little different in management outcomes between Olshey and Cronin. They are both risk-adverse fence-straddlers with two-track ambitions. They both engage in boiler-plate platitudes and sound bytes without really saying anything of substance. And they both seem incapable of ever elevating the Blazers out of whichever purgatory they are in

Blazer ownership is an ambivalent mess. A trust? really? Thanks Paul. Management is content with purgatory. The coach has pointless substitution patterns and seems to have a primary goal of trashing Portland's lottery odds while stunting the growth of the young guys. The roster is a mish-mash of some potential and lots of mediocrity. But it's an expensive mish-mash always struggling to stay under the tax line

there's just not much to like about the Blazers right now

[BlazersBroncos]

Hypothetical - what if Joel hits the market? I wouldnt offer much but Simons + Ayton works.

We have the C depth in RWIII and DC to keep Joel fresh. The jumbo lineup of Camara - Deni - Grant would work well with him IMO and Scoot and Joel PNR could be special.

G - Scoot Henderson / Tre Jones (MLE)
G - Toumari Camara / Shadeon Sharpe / Matisse Thybulle
F - Jerami Grant / Liam McNeeley (FRP) / Matisse Thybulle
F - Deni Avdija / Toumari Camara
C - Joel Embiid / Robert Williams III / Donovan Clingan

[zzaj]

Hypothetical - what if Joel hits the market? I wouldnt offer much but Simons + Ayton works.

We have the C depth in RWIII and DC to keep Joel fresh. The jumbo lineup of Camara - Deni - Grant would work well with him IMO and Scoot and Joel PNR could be special.

G - Scoot Henderson / Tre Jones (MLE)
G - Toumari Camara / Shadeon Sharpe / Matisse Thybulle
F - Jerami Grant / Liam McNeeley (FRP) / Matisse Thybulle
F - Deni Avdija / Toumari Camara
C - Joel Embiid / Robert Williams III / Donovan Clingan

I am fairly certain Simons/Ayton/FFRP is not the direction Philly would be looking...

[BlazersBroncos]

Hypothetical - what if Joel hits the market? I wouldnt offer much but Simons + Ayton works.

We have the C depth in RWIII and DC to keep Joel fresh. The jumbo lineup of Camara - Deni - Grant would work well with him IMO and Scoot and Joel PNR could be special.

G - Scoot Henderson / Tre Jones (MLE)
G - Toumari Camara / Shadeon Sharpe / Matisse Thybulle
F - Jerami Grant / Liam McNeeley (FRP) / Matisse Thybulle
F - Deni Avdija / Toumari Camara
C - Joel Embiid / Robert Williams III / Donovan Clingan

I am fairly certain Simons/Ayton/FFRP is not the direction Philly would be looking...

Agreed. I dont actually think they can trade him. No team is paying true value for a guy with his injury history, age, contract and attitude. They will keep running it back with him IMO.

[PDXKnight]

Hypothetical - what if Joel hits the market? I wouldnt offer much but Simons + Ayton works.

We have the C depth in RWIII and DC to keep Joel fresh. The jumbo lineup of Camara - Deni - Grant would work well with him IMO and Scoot and Joel PNR could be special.

G - Scoot Henderson / Tre Jones (MLE)
G - Toumari Camara / Shadeon Sharpe / Matisse Thybulle
F - Jerami Grant / Liam McNeeley (FRP) / Matisse Thybulle
F - Deni Avdija / Toumari Camara
C - Joel Embiid / Robert Williams III / Donovan Clingan

I am fairly certain Simons/Ayton/FFRP is not the direction Philly would be looking...

Agreed. I dont actually think they can trade him. No team is paying true value for a guy with his injury history, age, contract and attitude. They will keep running it back with him IMO.

Yeah it'd take 4-5 firsts I'd guess. Wouldnt do that but obviously the first scenario we say yes to that'd be worse than the doncic deal

[Walton1one]

Hypothetical - what if Joel hits the market? I wouldnt offer much but Simons + Ayton works.

We have the C depth in RWIII and DC to keep Joel fresh. The jumbo lineup of Camara - Deni - Grant would work well with him IMO and Scoot and Joel PNR could be special.

G - Scoot Henderson / Tre Jones (MLE)
G - Toumari Camara / Shadeon Sharpe / Matisse Thybulle
F - Jerami Grant / Liam McNeeley (FRP) / Matisse Thybulle
F - Deni Avdija / Toumari Camara
C - Joel Embiid / Robert Williams III / Donovan Clingan

I am fairly certain Simons/Ayton/FFRP is not the direction Philly would be looking...

So, this is a major issue with Cronin's apparent strategy. He should be acquiring assets, as many as he can, young players, picks, 2nd and 1st rounders, swaps, whatever he can to build up that war chest so IF a star player does become available via trade, he has the assets to acquire such a player without gutting his rotation

Right now, POR has very little outside of their own young rotational players, that have any value?

They have the best & worst 29' 1st's b\t MIL\BOS and themselves - They can only trade one of those picks right now Since 28' is tied to CHI, they have to have a pick in 29'.

They have their own 30' 1st which is tied to a 30' pick swap with MIL - Which they could trade, but if they do, then they cannot trade their 29' or their 31' 1st (Stepien)

They have their own 31' 1st

They have [7] potential 2nd's right now? None of which appear to be of anything more than marginal value

[25'] ATL (31-40 or nothing)
[26'] MEM (43-60 or nothing)
[27'] MIN, POR\CHA (least favorable, if 56+ goes to BOS)
[28'] POR (if protected 1st to CHI not conveyed, goes to CHI)
[29'] IND\WAS (least favorable)
[30'] NY
[31'] POR

That is pretty much it. Their own 1st is tied up until 2028, which BTW also complicates trying to trade their MIL pick swap in 28', as they have to own their pick to be able to trade it or enact the swap

So what does POR have to entice a team outside of their young core of players?

a 29' & 31' 1st? Some poor 2nd rounders? You are not getting an in their prime star player with that package, so that means adding 2-3 of Camara, Deni, Scoot, Sharpe, Clingan, the 25' 1st (or player chosen there) to the deal, take your pick

This is why building up a war chest is so important IMO, and we saw multiple teams in POR position do just that, and some of those teams got really creative this year, trading multiple 2nd's for a 1st, trading multiple 1st's for a better 1st.

This is what Cronin should have been doing and why he should not be turning his nose at protected 1st's or multiple 2nd's in exchange for some of the players still stuck on this roster. The more assets they have, the better leverage they have to execute a deal for a star player. It is why trading a 2nd round pick for cash, while many view as inconsequential, is just dumb, that pick\player is an asset and he needs to gather as many of those as he can, which inexplicably he is not doing. The guy needs to be fired, the sooner the better

BTW, do you know that the 2nd round pick that POR dealt for cash, twice, both of those players are playing on playoff contending teams? Ighodaro (PHX40) & Post (GS\52)