Making Sense of a Senseless Summer
Posted: Thu Jun 26, 2025 2:08 pm
Well... this has been a summer. Simons was packaged with a couple 2nds for a declining vet on a whopper of a contract, and then we traded back to the 16th pick in the draft so we could select a prospect most analysts had going in the 2nd round. Oof... typing that out was depressing. On paper, those all seem like terrible decisions. In reality... those might still be terrible decisions. That said, there is a layer of logic to the moves, or at least my brain has tricked myself into thinking so, and that's what I'm here to dissect...
The Simons Trade:
Why I hate it- Wanna get away? Cronin might after the Simons trade. There are way cheaper Holiday options out there... Dad jokes aside, it pained me to read about the trade when it happened. Trading Simons seemed pretty much inevitable... in addition to his defense and hero ball style clashing with the team's playstyle/direction, he was seen as one of the few players on the roster (not on a rookie contract) that might actually have trade value around the league. Maybe he could be traded for a package that returned a promising prospect or an FRP or two. Well, womp womp... we got 35 year old Jrue Holiday at 100+ mil for 3 years. No draft picks returned. In fact, we had to send picks OUT with Simons to make the deal work. Ouch.
Why it might not suck- As many have noted, Jrue is a professional, has a defensive mindset that fits our team scheme nicely, and could potentially be an impactful mentor for Scoot. That's great and all, but doesn't make up for the fact that he's a declining player likely on his last legs that comes at a huge cost.
But there is hidden value in Jrue's bloated contract, a silver lining of sorts... While Holiday's contract will really hurt that 3rd year at $37.2 mil when he's 37/38, he's still a good enough player now to earn significant minutes this year. Likely, he will either start over Scoot or at the very least keep Scoot to his 25-30 mpg type role... when Scoot has contract extension negotiations open up next summer, his career production likely won't be something he can leverage much in the negotiations. And when Jrue's contract does expire, that opens up considerable space for the wave of extensions the team will be hitting the next few years. We aren't signing any major FA's anyway... might as well give that money to someone who can provide quality leadership, potentially reduce the cost of re-signing Scoot, and then clears off our books when we have bigger contracts due.
It really sucks we had to give up assets to move Simons for Jrue, instead of receive assets, but Simons likely didn't have great value. His contract expires next year and he will likely demand more than he's worth when it's time to resign, and he has been a spectacularly "meh" player of the past several seasons... 0.1, 0.2, -0.1 BPM the past three years. That's impressively consistent neutral production for a guy that will be demanding a hefty contract. His next contract will be a messy negotiation and one that I'm glad the Blazers won't be part of.
The Draft Pick
Why I hate it: I mean... nobody wants to be THAT team that used a mid 1st round pick on a projected 2nd rounder. Oh, and the player is still considered to be raw and not yet ready to contribute by most draft analysts.
Why it might not suck: I'm not even going to touch on the prospect's potential ceiling. It could be there, it might not, who knows with a foreign player taken at 16 we've never heard of before last night. The reality is that nobody we could have taken at 16, or 11, would have been a clear solution to any one position, and would have taken minutes away from our stable of young guards and forwards that need those minutes to continue developing. There comes a point where you can only develop and give minutes to so many prospects, and I think the Blazers are there. Scoot, Camara, Sharpe, Deni, and Clingan all need minutes. Having a project player we can develop over time that doesn't eat into the minutes of players we want to develop now actually makes a fair bit of sense. Would've been nice if we could've traded the 16 back into the mid 20's for even more future draft capital if our plan was to take him all along, but maybe the deal just wasn't there or the Blazers just liked him that much.
And the draft capital we lost in the Simons deal, we recouped and then some in this deal, with a future 2028 FRP and 2 additional 2nds... Best part is that future first is from Orlando... a team with some nice players but a solid history of underperforming and not keeping teams together. Who knows where they will be when the pick converts to us, but if history has a say, their best player will find his way onto the Lakers somehow.
So, while the trade and draft moves both caught me off guard, long term they could work out. Time will tell, but I'm curious to hear everyone's thoughts on how these moves will impact us going forward.
The Simons Trade:
Why I hate it- Wanna get away? Cronin might after the Simons trade. There are way cheaper Holiday options out there... Dad jokes aside, it pained me to read about the trade when it happened. Trading Simons seemed pretty much inevitable... in addition to his defense and hero ball style clashing with the team's playstyle/direction, he was seen as one of the few players on the roster (not on a rookie contract) that might actually have trade value around the league. Maybe he could be traded for a package that returned a promising prospect or an FRP or two. Well, womp womp... we got 35 year old Jrue Holiday at 100+ mil for 3 years. No draft picks returned. In fact, we had to send picks OUT with Simons to make the deal work. Ouch.
Why it might not suck- As many have noted, Jrue is a professional, has a defensive mindset that fits our team scheme nicely, and could potentially be an impactful mentor for Scoot. That's great and all, but doesn't make up for the fact that he's a declining player likely on his last legs that comes at a huge cost.
But there is hidden value in Jrue's bloated contract, a silver lining of sorts... While Holiday's contract will really hurt that 3rd year at $37.2 mil when he's 37/38, he's still a good enough player now to earn significant minutes this year. Likely, he will either start over Scoot or at the very least keep Scoot to his 25-30 mpg type role... when Scoot has contract extension negotiations open up next summer, his career production likely won't be something he can leverage much in the negotiations. And when Jrue's contract does expire, that opens up considerable space for the wave of extensions the team will be hitting the next few years. We aren't signing any major FA's anyway... might as well give that money to someone who can provide quality leadership, potentially reduce the cost of re-signing Scoot, and then clears off our books when we have bigger contracts due.
It really sucks we had to give up assets to move Simons for Jrue, instead of receive assets, but Simons likely didn't have great value. His contract expires next year and he will likely demand more than he's worth when it's time to resign, and he has been a spectacularly "meh" player of the past several seasons... 0.1, 0.2, -0.1 BPM the past three years. That's impressively consistent neutral production for a guy that will be demanding a hefty contract. His next contract will be a messy negotiation and one that I'm glad the Blazers won't be part of.
The Draft Pick
Why I hate it: I mean... nobody wants to be THAT team that used a mid 1st round pick on a projected 2nd rounder. Oh, and the player is still considered to be raw and not yet ready to contribute by most draft analysts.
Why it might not suck: I'm not even going to touch on the prospect's potential ceiling. It could be there, it might not, who knows with a foreign player taken at 16 we've never heard of before last night. The reality is that nobody we could have taken at 16, or 11, would have been a clear solution to any one position, and would have taken minutes away from our stable of young guards and forwards that need those minutes to continue developing. There comes a point where you can only develop and give minutes to so many prospects, and I think the Blazers are there. Scoot, Camara, Sharpe, Deni, and Clingan all need minutes. Having a project player we can develop over time that doesn't eat into the minutes of players we want to develop now actually makes a fair bit of sense. Would've been nice if we could've traded the 16 back into the mid 20's for even more future draft capital if our plan was to take him all along, but maybe the deal just wasn't there or the Blazers just liked him that much.
And the draft capital we lost in the Simons deal, we recouped and then some in this deal, with a future 2028 FRP and 2 additional 2nds... Best part is that future first is from Orlando... a team with some nice players but a solid history of underperforming and not keeping teams together. Who knows where they will be when the pick converts to us, but if history has a say, their best player will find his way onto the Lakers somehow.
So, while the trade and draft moves both caught me off guard, long term they could work out. Time will tell, but I'm curious to hear everyone's thoughts on how these moves will impact us going forward.