2008-09 Backup PF?

[cucad8]

Was just curious what everyone thought about this. I was thinking about it a few days ago, looking at our possible rotations next year, and with Oden coming back, couldn't figure out who the odd man out is between Frye and Outlaw. Or, possibly Pryzbilla, even. Nate has shortened his rotation this year from the previous years, so I couldn't imagine both Frye and Outlaw getting significant time next year. So if you got Oden and Aldridge starting, and Pryz at C off the bench spelling Oden, is it Frye or Outlaw next to him? I see upside for both of them, and they are very different players, with different skill sets, but is there room for both? Do you look to move one who can get the most in return, ad which would that be? Maybe this could be moved to the what to do with all these players thread, if one of the mods sees it fitting better, but I was thinking more specifically just of the PF slot. Not like there is time for Outlaw at SF with Jones and Webster there. Thoughts? Who is better in the rotation? Who gets us the most in return?

[Wizenheimer]

I don't know that the decision has to necessarily be made this summer. Right now, we know that Joel does have a rather extensive injury history. And there's some uncertainty about Oden, at least if both his MF surgery and propensity for fouls is factored in.

So Frye may be valuable next season and Outlaw is quite likely part of portland's long-term plan.

I will point out that Channing Frye is rebounding at a higher rate then Aldridge.

As a matter of fact, people here have wished often for a Millsap type player. Well, Millsap's per48 rebound number is 12.74, while Frye's is 12.04. 7/10 of a rebound more per 48 minutes is not a wide gap.

And frye can play both C and PF. And we know he can shoot and stretch a defense. I question whether portland can do better in a draft or a minor trade then Frye at this point.

Of course the problem with frye is that if he's still a blazer under his current contract entering the 2009 off-season, his cap-hold will be about 9.5 million. But I'm not sure that KP has any intention of extending his contract this summer.

[d-train]

Initially we overrated Frye and then we underrated him. Frye has proved he is a solid NBA backup big man. Some of his weaknesses are inconvenient because the qualities the Blazers need most from a big man off the bench exactly correlate with his weaknesses.

[DmoneyH3]

Due to 3 extra players coming in next year.. Mr. O..Rudy..#1 pick..we need to trim down the roster. As of right now, Jack and Channing are the odd men out. Rudy basically replaces Jack, and Trav can now take over at the 4 along side Joel off of the bench when Oden returns.

[Butter]

Its interesting to think about the way players will work together, for example:

C Oden-beast in the paint
PF Aldridge: jump shooting PF
Obviously LMA compliments Oden because he can open up the middle for him.

One potential combo for the second unit could be:
C Pryzbilla: defense and rebounding
PF Outlaw Jump shooting slasher
This combo could work depending on who the SF was. They'd have to be a big player who can rebound and help defend. But against players like Maxiell, Milisap, Craig Smith, Outlaw would be giving up a lot of weight. I think Outlaw should put on a couple of pounds to get a little more bulk.

It would be ideal to have a PF/C to back up Oden and Pryz, but also bring in a bigger body if Outlaw can't handle the PF. The Blazers could then move to a bigger line up with Travis at the 3.

This brings us to Frye.

Wize said it really well:

I will point out that Channing Frye is rebounding at a higher rate then Aldridge.

As a matter of fact, people here have wished often for a Millsap type player. Well, Millsap's per48 rebound number is 12.74, while Frye's is 12.04. 7/10 of a rebound more per 48 minutes is not a wide gap.

And frye can play both C and PF. And we know he can shoot and stretch a defense. I question whether portland can do better in a draft or a minor trade then Frye at this point.

So a rotation of:

1st unit:
Oden (34 minutes-limited do to being a rookie and coming off surgery)/
LMA (36minutes)

2nd unit:
Pryzbilla (10 minutes) /
Outlaw (10 mintues PF/15 SF)

w/ Frye (4 minutes C/ 2 PF) backing up all four positions could be very solid, but it doesn't leave Frye with a lot of PT unless someone gets hurt or in foul trouble.

[Butter]

In hindsight, after seeing the minutes broken down, the Blazer might be better off letting Frye walk, and bringing in a low cost PF/C veteran, or a rookie?

[Butter]

Due to 3 extra players coming in next year.. Mr. O..Rudy..#1 pick..we need to trim down the roster. As of right now, Jack and Channing are the odd men out. Rudy basically replaces Jack, and Trav can now take over at the 4 along side Joel off of the bench when Oden returns.

Its a good point. And really, if Frye and Jack can keep playing at a high level, they might create some decent trade value.

[Wizenheimer]

Due to 3 extra players coming in next year.. Mr. O..Rudy..#1 pick..we need to trim down the roster. As of right now, Jack and Channing are the odd men out. Rudy basically replaces Jack, and Trav can now take over at the 4 along side Joel off of the bench when Oden returns.

Portland hasn't made their draft selection yet...it might be traded.

And while Rudy coming over seems probable, it's not for certain yet...several Euro teams may offer him big money for next year. And even if he does come over, almost all european players seem to need at least a season to adjust to the NBA.

And Oden is already on the roster.

The "odd men out" aren't Jack and Frye at this point, that would be Green and Mcroberts. And possibly Lafrentz.

[cucad8]

In hindsight, after seeing the minutes broken down, the Blazer might be better off letting Frye walk, and bringing in a low cost PF/C veteran, or a rookie?

That was why I was questioning what to do. Is Frye worth more to us getting 5 minutes a night, or more to somewhere else where he would start,a nd give us the opportunity to package Frye with something to improve elsewhere. I don't know specifically where, but another slot. Or, does Frye fit better with Pryz, giving us two solid rebounders on the bench, and we move Outlaw, who still has no clue what boxing out is. I have loved Outlaw's breakout year, and appreciate all of his contributions, I just wish I could see him box out once. Just once would be cool. And then you look at flexi8bility. Frye can play the 4 and 5 effectively. Outlaw can play the 3 and 4. Will we need more depth at C, where we will have a rookie Oden, and an injury threat in Pryz, or extra depth at SF, where we would have Martell, Jones, and then, depending on the lineups, Brandon and Rudy as well.

[Wizenheimer]

In hindsight, after seeing the minutes broken down, the Blazer might be better off letting Frye walk, and bringing in a low cost PF/C veteran, or a rookie?

It's unlikely the replacement would be as effective as Frye.

But the contract status of the 3rd year plaayers is problematic considering KP's supposed cap-space option. I have a hard time figuring that the blazers would simply renounce the rights to Frye and Jack (and webster) and let them walk, without at least exploring trade possibilities for the players.

Of course KP keeps talking about character and chemistry, and he did trade for Frye and extoll his virtues, so maybe frye is in KP's long term plans.

[mojomarc]

Personally, I think Outlaw is more likely the odd man out between him and Frye, but only because all of his offensive skill is more than duplicated by Rudy. Rudy is just as good if not better as a mid-range shooter, has true three point range, and is more effective slashing than Outlaw. Frye, on the other hand, has really shown himself to be a good rebounder over the last several games, is a great shooter (love his form!), has a better basketball IQ, and has better size for when we play twin-tower lineups. We also have the x-factor in that Travis wasn't brought in by KP, while Channing was.

Outlaw has improved greatly this year so I'm not nearly as anxious as I would have been at this time last year to get rid of him, but I still have a hard time keeping him long-term over Frye when we have Rudy coming in.

[Wizenheimer]

So a rotation of:

1st unit:
Oden (34 minutes-limited do to being a rookie and coming off surgery)/
LMA (36minutes)

2nd unit:
Pryzbilla (10 minutes) /
Outlaw (10 mintues PF/15 SF)

w/ Frye (4 minutes C/ 2 PF) backing up all four positions could be very solid, but it doesn't leave Frye with a lot of PT unless someone gets hurt or in foul trouble.

and of course that leaves 33 minutes at SF to be split between Jones, Webster, and Fernandez. (not to mention Miles)

Draft Day 2008....Blazer fans should pull up a chair and watch

[Wizenheimer]

Personally, I think Outlaw is more likely the odd man out between him and Frye, but only because all of his offensive skill is more than duplicated by Rudy. Rudy is just as good if not better as a mid-range shooter, has true three point range, and is more effective slashing than Outlaw. Frye, on the other hand, has really shown himself to be a good rebounder over the last several games, is a great shooter (love his form!), has a better basketball IQ, and has better size for when we play twin-tower lineups. We also have the x-factor in that Travis wasn't brought in by KP, while Channing was.

Outlaw has improved greatly this year so I'm not nearly as anxious as I would have been at this time last year to get rid of him, but I still have a hard time keeping him long-term over Frye when we have Rudy coming in.

and then of course, there is the logjam at SF with Jones, Webster, and Outlaw. Before the 3rd quarter, Martell may have been looking like the odd man out. Now, not so much.

And it may be the case that Outlaw is really developing some high trade value.

Portland's depth is great for Nate, but it looks like an impending headache for KP....or maybe that's the other way around

[Butter]

-= original quote snipped =-



and of course that leaves 33 minutes at SF to be split between Jones, Webster, and Fernandez. (not to mention Miles)

Draft Day 2008....Blazer fans should pull up a chair and watch

Well, what if we speculate that Outlaw could be moved and plug Frye into Outlaws minutes:

1st unit:
Oden (34 minutes-limited do to being a rookie and coming off surgery)/
LMA (36minutes)

2nd unit:
Pryzbilla (10 minutes) /
Frye (4 minutes center / 12 mintues PF)

That gives Frye an average of 16 minutes, and frees up all of the 48 minutes at SF for Webster, James (if he's back) and maybe a couple for Rudy.

Is Frye going to resign with the Blazers for 16 minutes?

[Wizenheimer]

Well, what if we speculate that Outlaw could be moved and plug Frye into Outlaws minutes:

1st unit:
Oden (34 minutes-limited do to being a rookie and coming off surgery)/
LMA (36minutes)

2nd unit:
Pryzbilla (10 minutes) /
Frye (4 minutes center / 12 mintues PF)

That gives Frye an average of 16 minutes, and frees up all of the 48 minutes at SF for Webster, James (if he's back) and maybe a couple for Rudy.

Is Frye going to resign with the Blazers for 16 minutes?

I doubt that would be part of the contract....

[Spykes]

In hindsight, after seeing the minutes broken down, the Blazer might be better off letting Frye walk, and bringing in a low cost PF/C veteran, or a rookie?

That's exactly what I was thinking.

And a player who would fit in nicely who no one's talking about, is Joel Freeland. He was reportedly really impressive during this past Summer League. If he continues to make serious progress, Portland could just bring him in and have him take over the 15 backup minutes at PF.

[d-train]

The major flaw in logic I see repeatedly here is the idea to improve upon a player by replacing him with an unknown commodity. As if somehow the devil we don't know is somehow better than the one we do know. We can all agree it's a good idea to improve by replacing our lesser players with better players but we underestimate how difficult a task that is. We can speculate about how good Rudy is but until we actually see him against NBA competition, we have no idea whether his positives outweigh his shortcomings. Rudy is most likely not as good as Jarrett Jack is. If he were more likely a better player than Jack is, he would've been a lottery pick in the draft. The first step in handling Rudy is getting him into training camp and finding out if he can play in the NBA. Most players picked 24th are not long-term NBA contributors.

[cucad8]

Along those same lines, then, shouldn't Tony Parker and Manu have been lottery selections as well? Now, I'm not saying he is going to be as good as them two, but just saying well, he was selected 24th, so he must not be any better than Jack isn't all that great of an argument. First of all, the draft is a crap shoot, and with as many poor GMs and talent evaluators that there are, it is not uncommon to see a decent player picked after the lottery. That seems to go even more for international players that are not over 6'10".
As for the assumption that most players picked 24th are not long term contributors, Kyle Lowry, Luther Head, Delonte West, nenad Krstic, Andrei Kirilenko, Derek Fisher, Latrell Sprewell, Sam Cassell, Rick Fox, and Sabonis are some of the 24th picks in the last 20 years. As many good to at least decent contributors in that list as there probably is at a random spot in the lottery.

[borgradr]

I find it funny that everyone, up til now, is suggesting we trade either Frye or Outlaw, when those two are probably the ones we want to keep at the backup 4 and 5. Its Przybilla we should be looking to get rid of so the Blazers can actually have real capspace in 2009. Add almost $7 million to the $10 million figure we'll likely have and you get $17 million, easily enough to land a big-time player looking to win for the next decade.

Oden/Frye
Aldridge/Outlaw
Webster/Jones
Roy/Fernandez
Blake (?)/Rodriguez

This is the core I'd like to see with the hopeful replacement of Blake with a really good defending/shooting point. Someone like Leandro Barbossa (a dream, I know). I could also see Roy and Fernandez as the starting back court assuming Rudy can adjust quickly. Everyone else should be used to either get rid of long term salary or trade up in the 2008 draft.

[Tim Lehrbach]

As much as I like Przybilla and have defended him here, I think he's pretty obviously the odd man out the rotation. Not to say he'll be moved (although it's worth exploring if he won't be used), necessarily, but considering we don't have Oden this year and Przybilla still can't get more than 20 minutes most nights, it's pretty clear Nate would rather not have him on the floor most of the time. With Oden playing 30+ minutes next season, who's he going to want to call off the bench--Frye, Outlaw, or Przybilla? I fear (for Joel) that he's going to be reduced to a bit role as the third big man who see the court in half our games.