RealGM

Greg Oden- What do You envision his Prime Stats to be?

My guess is that it will be 19 points/16 rebounds/4.4 blocks per game on 57% shooting

what do you think

49 points/28 rebounds/10.3 blocks on 75% shooting

DerrickRose23 wrote:My guess is that it will be 19 points/16 rebounds/4.4 blocks per game on 57% shooting

You got to be kidding me.

sule wrote:49 points/28 rebounds/10.3 blocks on 75% shooting

sounds about right. maybe a couple more blocks though.

deadfeather wrote:-= original quote snipped =-



You got to be kidding me.

absolutely not.. he is that special.. I definitely see him as a better rebounder than Howard and he will block shots like Mutombo/Hakeem did in his prime

I picture him averaging 26 pts/ 12-14 rebounds/ and 3 blocks in his prime. This guy's a monster on both ends and if he's as good as he's projected to be and appears to be, I could see him averaging those stats easily.

there is no way he averages more than 22 points.. i think he will be a 22 points, i think he will be a HUGE rebounder and shot blocker but not quite a huge scorer, especially with Roy and Aldridge there.. I think 16 boards/4 blocks will be the bigger part of his game then any points he puts up

DerrickRose23 wrote:there is no way he averages more than 22 points.. i think he will be a 22 points, i think he will be a HUGE rebounder and shot blocker but not quite a huge scorer, especially with Roy and Aldridge there.. I think 16 boards/4 blocks will be the bigger part of his game then any points he puts up

I completely agree with you. That is also a silver lining to his missed season. It has allowed Roy, Aldridge, Martell, Outlaw, and Jones to develop an effective offense, which Oden will be able to contribute to. If we had tried to make our offense all about Oden, we would be definitely underachieving. He will finish dunks well, rebound well, block shots, and provide a solid post presence, but I dont think that he will be a dominant offensive player. Of course, I keep going back to that NCAA Championship game when he abused Florida's very talented big men. He could turn out to be a solid scorer, but I am much more excited about his defense and especially his rebounding.

Is 16 as high as this will go...I guess I'll have to pick that one then...

As a baseline, I think I will project 24 points, 12 rebounds, and 2.5 blocks. But if he approaches the peak of other dominant centers in history, he's going to score a lot more than that and probably have some seasons where he blocks 3.5-4 shots per game.

And he's going to win at least four championships.

If he can stay out of foul trouble his blocked shots will be more impressive than his rebounds

Oden2 wrote:I picture him averaging 26 pts/ 12-14 rebounds/ and 3 blocks in his prime. This guy's a monster on both ends and if he's as good as he's projected to be and appears to be, I could see him averaging those stats easily.

Tim Duncan's career high season PPG is 25.5. Considering Oden's in a similar situation with so many other talented players, he will probably never score more than Roy, much less put up 26 ppg. With LMA around 18-20 ppg, Roy at 22-23, Oden will probably only get to 18-20. Just too many players who can score 20 on this team.

I project his career high will be something close to 22/13/3.5 with room or improvement offensively. A lot of it depends on how his body reacts to microfracture surgery.

Tim Lehrbach wrote:As a baseline, I think I will project 24 points, 12 rebounds, and 2.5 blocks. But if he approaches the peak of other dominant centers in history, he's going to score a lot more than that and probably have some seasons where he blocks 3.5-4 shots per game.

And he's going to win at least four championships.

+1

As for comparing him to Duncan, Duncan was never as explosive as Oden has shown himself to be prior to the surgery. If Oden is only a shadow of his former self then perhaps Duncan is the high.

Also, trying to project LMA and Roy averaging like they do now and then seeing how many points Oden will get based on that is the wrong sort of analysis. The fact is that if Oden is as good as he was drafted to be the Blazers would be silly to run that much of the offensive load through the relatively lower efficiency players and instead will pound the ball in for the easy points and the and-one.

Buckeye-NBAFan wrote:-= original quote snipped =-



Tim Duncan's career high season PPG is 25.5. Considering Oden's in a similar situation with so many other talented players, he will probably never score more than Roy, much less put up 26 ppg. With LMA around 18-20 ppg, Roy at 22-23, Oden will probably only get to 18-20. Just too many players who can score 20 on this team.

Let me rephrase my previous message, I think that he has the capability of scoring 26 ppg in his prime. It all depends on how much Greg Oden is involved in the offensive gameplan and you make a very valid point that the Blazers will have A LOT of offensive weapons so I'd say 22 is more realistic. As far as PPG averages for other players, I agree that Roy will be around the 23 PPG mark while LA may see a decline in PPG to about 15 PPG, but I see Aldridge making strides in his offensive abilities nonetheless. I'm not going to predict what this team will be like once Rudy plays because it is unknown what kind of impact he will have but assuming he makes a major impact on the Blazers, Roy/LA/Oden will most likely see less touches.

Peak years for Oden, LMA, and Roy imo.

Oden: 20-22 ppg, 13 rpg, 3.5 bpg. This is peak numbers. Other years he will probably be around 18-20 ppg due to other scorers who can put up 20+ on any given night.

Roy: 20-21 ppg, 5 rpg, 6 apg. Oden effect ala the shaq effect improves Roy's numbers a tiny bit.

LMA: 18-19 ppg, 9 rpg, 1.5 bpg. I can't forsee LMA doing a whole lot better. His FG% will be better with Oden on the floor. He'll get more offensive rebounds as well with more attention paid to Oden and Roy.

Looking into the future, Roy, Oden, LMA, Outlaw, and on occasion Martell/Fernandez can put up 20+ point games.

I could see Oden averaging 4+ blocks per game in his prime. Camby is pulling down 14.4 and blocking 3.9. I think Oden will be able to do that plus score in high teens to mid-twenties in his prime based upon his offensive progression. I see games where he goes off for 35+ points as well.

I actually could see Roy's scoring holding at a fairly steady 19ppg with a few blips above 20ppg. The real statistical increase I think we'll see from Roy will be in his FG% and his APG. I'm convinced he'll be a 7.5+apg guy if he continues as our primary ball handler.

I still believe LaMarcus will lead this team in scoring most years. I see him peaking as a 25-26ppg guy while pulling down 8 or 9 boards a game.

At that point we're really just plugging in a supporting cast.