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We'll all know in less than a week whether Portland plans on making any moves. There have been some interesting rumors floated around, but so far none that have gotten too far.

Memphis of course has been pretty prominent in both rumors and real deals. The player that seems to be the most likely up on the auction block is Mike Miller. Other rumors have mentioned Kyle Lowry as well.

So why do I care about Lowry though?

I never really thought much about Lowry when his name was being brought up in other rumors. I haven't seen him linked to Portland a single time--at least not recently. But Portland does need a point guard. He's not the sexy pick by any means, he's a bit undersized and has been rather unspectacular thus far in his short career.

But then I remembered an article from last summer in the Columbian talking about Pritchard's "money ball" system. While the Columbian news paper will make you pay for this article, I found a link to the full article posted on another site:

Link

Here's the quote that I remembered that could be of interest

Pritchard and Ma are quick to point out that the system is not foolproof, though, and its findings will raise some eyebrows amongst casual fans.

For instance, Memphis point guard Kyle Lowry, selected with the 24th pick, was Protrade's top-ranked player in last year's draft, while Portland's all-rookie forward LaMarcus Aldridge - taken with the second pick - ranked 22nd.

Now again, I'm just speculating, but maybe Pritchard has this guy ranked pretty high still and now has a decent shot at acquiring him. It seems to make sense that Portland would be interested in talking to Memphis in light of the Pau Gasol robbery to at least see if anything else is falling off the back of the truck. I always felt that Mike Miller would be a target here, but maybe Kyle Lowry could be involved?

I'll end with, I have no inside information on this, I haven't heard anything or spoke to anyone. This is simply me just being a little bored, and throwing out something to talk about leading up to the deadline.

I like Lowry as well, but it seems like his strengthes offset his weaknesses. When I compare him to our current options Jack and Sergio, it almost seems like a wash.

Lowry vs Jack

Defense: Lowry
Fast break: Is there an under 30 year old PG in this league who is worse than Jarrett?
Drive to the rim: I'd give Jack a slight edge because he is bigger.
Perimeter shooting: Jack. Lowry shoots 25% from beyond the arc.


Lowry vs Sergio

Defense: Lowry
Fast break: Sergio
Getting to the rim: Lowry
Perimeter shooting: neither

However, Sergio has that ceiling to develop into a first rate pass first PG with much better court vision.

Interesting. Only a half an hour ago I posted this trade on the trade board and Memphis board. It gets us Lowry and Ben Gordon.

Chicago trades:

Ben Gordon
Salary: $4,881,669 Years Remaining: 1
PTS: 20.0 REB: 3.4 AST: 2.8 PER: 15.92

Chris Duhon
Salary: $3,248,000 Years Remaining: 1
PTS: 6.0 REB: 1.9 AST: 4.2 PER: 10.01


Chicago receives:

Mike Miller
Salary: $8,376,194 Years Remaining: 3
PTS: 16.9 REB: 6.6 AST: 3.6 PER: 16.04

Jarrett Jack
Salary: $1,217,400 Years Remaining: 2
PTS: 9.4 REB: 2.8 AST: 3.7 PER: 12.40

The Bulls finally get a bigger SG in Mike Miller who is a solid all-around player. He also under contract. Jarrett Jack is a competent back-up combo guard.


Memphis trades:

Mike Miller
Salary: $8,376,194 Years Remaining: 3
PTS: 16.9 REB: 6.6 AST: 3.6 PER: 16.04

Brian Cardinal
Salary: $5,850,000 Years Remaining: 3
PTS: 2.8 REB: 1.9 AST: 0.6 PER: 5.87

Kyle Lowry
Salary: $1,087,680 Years Remaining: 1
PTS: 8.5 REB: 3.4 AST: 3.6 PER: 12.86


Memphis receives:

Channing Frye
Salary: $2,487,240 Years Remaining: 2
PTS: 6.6 REB: 4.5 AST: 0.8 PER: 13.58

Chris Duhon
Salary: $3,248,000 Years Remaining: 1
PTS: 6.0 REB: 1.9 AST: 4.2 PER: 10.01

Raef LaFrentz
Salary: $12,440,787 Years Remaining: 2
PTS: 1.9 REB: 1.7 AST: 0.2 PER: 12.04

$3 million from Portland

own 2008 round pick from Portland

The Grizzlies are looking to start from scratch. They offload their worst contract in the form of Brian Cardinal. Channing Frye is a decent young big who fits well on this team. Chris Duhon has an ending contract and LaFrentz expires next season.

Portland trades:

Channing Frye
Salary: $2,487,240 Years Remaining: 2
PTS: 6.6 REB: 4.5 AST: 0.8 PER: 13.58

Jarrett Jack
Salary: $1,217,400 Years Remaining: 2
PTS: 9.4 REB: 2.8 AST: 3.7 PER: 12.40

Raef LaFrentz
Salary: $12,440,787 Years Remaining: 2
PTS: 1.9 REB: 1.7 AST: 0.2 PER: 12.04

$3 million to Memphis

own 2008 round pick back to Memphis

Portland receives:

Ben Gordon
Salary: $4,881,669 Years Remaining: 1
PTS: 20.0 REB: 3.4 AST: 2.8 PER: 15.92

Kyle Lowry
Salary: $1,087,680 Years Remaining: 1
PTS: 8.5 REB: 3.4 AST: 3.6 PER: 12.86

Brian Cardinal
Salary: $5,850,000 Years Remaining: 3
PTS: 2.8 REB: 1.9 AST: 0.6 PER: 5.87

Portland is looking to pare it's roster and upgrade the PG position. Ben Gordon fits in perfectly next to Roy. Lowry gets a chance to beat out Rodriguez and Green for third string PG. Cardinal would be bought out. Taking on his contract is not such a big deal since all the holes on the roster would be filled. Additonally it looks increasingly likely that Miles will take medical retirement and free up a lot of salary cap space before 09.

I agree breaker91 in regards to comparing Sergio to Lowry. While I'm pretty hard on Sergio he certainly has all of the tools he needs to become a great point guard. I haven't seen enough of Lowry to know if he has that as well.

For the most part, I see Sergio as the better prospect, but could also see Pritchard hedging his bets. He already has another solid PG over seas in Petteri, add in Lowry to Sergio and you'd have to think at least 1 of the 3 will turn into something decent right?

But who knows, he Pritchard could have laughed his ass off at the fact that Lowry was ranked so high.

That's an interesting thought. I had no idea KP (or his system) ever tagged Lowry as a good prospect. I also find it interesting that Memphis now has Crittenton who we were somewhat interested in before the draft as well.

I'm curious as to what it would take to get either of them. I personally doubt it would be worth the price. I don't know about Crittenton but I don't see Lowry ever being more than a backup. If we could do this by trading Jack I might sign on, but as it is are either of them really going to outplay Sergio for those minutes behind Blake?

The other interesting thing to note is that his 'system' popped Tyrus Thomas out as the number 2, but we traded him for the number 22 Aldridge. That's worked out for us a bit better than if we trusted the system.

We took Sergio 3 spots after Lowry went to Memphis, and if KP uses the system as that article suggests (to give some players a deeper look if they would have been otherwise ignored) then why didn't we try harder to take Lowry originally? (then again maybe we did). Interesting speculation and a good find, but I can't see us making a move for Lowry anytime soon.

I just don't see the need for another B prospect at PG. Who knows if Lowry is > than Petko/Sergio or even T.Green?

Yea, like two months ago or so I posted
that the Blazers should try & trade Jack
for Lowry. If I remember right most of
the people liked the idea. I think Lowry
is a little like Jack in where hes a SG
more then a PG. I think Lowry knows
that fact a little more then Jack & so
he does a little better then Jack.. .

Lowry would be a good fit next to roy. While he's not a pass-first PG, the Blazers really don't need that. All he really would need to do is take the open shots on offense and hold his own on defense. I'm a bit concerned about his inconsistency on offense but he would be worth the risk IMO as long as we don't give away a key player.

Just reading some of the replies from Blazers fans here I have one bit of advice; don't go with this to the Memphis board, you'll be eaten alive...

I have the feeling a lot of you underrate Lowry, he's actually a very good prospect IMO. A lot of Grizz fans might overrate him a little perhaps, but the kid is a fighter, he's going to be a solid player in this league.

Dome wrote:Just reading some of the replies from Blazers fans here I have one bit of advice; don't go with this to the Memphis board, you'll be eaten alive...

I have the feeling a lot of you underrate Lowry, he's actually a very good prospect IMO. A lot of Grizz fans might overrate him a little perhaps, but the kid is a fighter, he's going to be a solid player in this league.

he is a solid player...but he is not a solid shooter, and that's something that portland needs in a PG that will be paired with Brandon Roy

he's also not a solid 6', no matter what he is listed as. And after years of damon stoudamire, and the failed Telfaire experiment, I'm not sure that portland will be willing to invest much in yet another sub-6' PG lacking remarkable talent.

Wizenheimer wrote:-= original quote snipped =-



he is a solid player...but he is not a solid shooter, and that's something that portland needs in a PG that will be paired with Brandon Roy

he's also not a solid 6', no matter what he is listed as. And after years of damon stoudamire, and the failed Telfaire experiment, I'm not sure that portland will be willing to invest much in yet another sub-6' PG lacking remarkable talent.

Good point. I didn't realize that he was that short but knowing that, I'm not sure how much I'd want him as well. Small PG's don't have a very high success rate in the NBA and it may be a big risk to bank on a guy like lowry being our future PG.

Kyle Lowry would actually help a lot on the rebounding issue for this year. Takes pride in defense, as well as winning. He is strong, able to back down defenders. I actually liked him the most out of the players coming out of Villanova (Foye) and any team would be lucky to have him.

Manhattan Project wrote:Kyle Lowry would actually help a lot on the rebounding issue for this year. Takes pride in defense, as well as winning. He is strong, able to back down defenders. I actually liked him the most out of the players coming out of Villanova (Foye) and any team would be lucky to have him.

I would not at all be surprised if POR traded for Miller/Lowry.