Rate This Draft Day Move

[Wizenheimer]

Since the Blazers seem to be swooning...it's time for a draft day trade!

The first thing is, part of the foundation of my trade is my dismissal of 2009 cap-space as valuable. I know most don't agree so the trade will most likely be hated...but give it a chance...

Assumptions: portland will end up with the 12th or 13th pick and Memphis will end up with the 5th or 6th pick. It's also assumed that the public statements by the Memphis GM are realtively accurate. Those are that he wants to reduce payroll, stockpile draft picks, and get young players on cheap contracts.

A further assumption is that KP has identified a player he really wants that he knows won't be available at 12 or 13

The trade:

Raef Lafrentz, Steve Blake, Martell Webster, Josh McRoberts, rights to kaponen, 12th pick, 2010 1st round pick and 3 million

for: Mike Miller, Brian Cardinal, Kyle Lowry, Marcus Vinicius (sign & trade filler) and the 5th or 6th pick.

http://games.espn.go.com/nba/features/traderesult?players=130~3012~558~3036~1994~454~3220~2795&teams=22~22~22~22~29~29~29~29&te=&cash=

Why for Memphis: Well, they get 16.6 million in expiring contracts and in the summer, that would be the best they could do unless they simply traded away Miller to Philly for nothing. It would get them massively under the salary cap in 2009. They get a future draft pick. And they get a couple of young players in Webster and McRoberts along with the rights to Kaponen.

It does add about a shade over 4 million in additional salary for 08/09 (more on that in 'why for portland'), but the 3 million from Uncle Paul helps offset that. Then the difference in salary scale between the 5th pick and the 12th pick would take car of the rest.

If memphis needed a little extra inducement, Portland could send back their 2008 2nd round pick + 3 million for a future 2nd round pick.

Why for Portland: first off, it's obviously cold-blooded for KP to send out blake a year after he signs him. But Blake's contract structure had to indicate that he could be short term in portland. Besides, I think 'cold-blooded' is on a GM's job description.

Portland is essentially trading Webster for Miller. Miller is older, but then he has proven to be a consistently good shooter over time...something Martell has yet to prove, at least the consistent part. Miller is easily a better ball-handler then Martell and is a significantly better rebounder as well. Miller has played a lot at SG, something martell hasn't demonstrated he's capable of yet. Miller has a bigger contract, but then martell's will be up for extension this summer, and he will want a lot more money then he's currently making, even though he hasn't earned it.

Portland exchanges Blake for Lowry. That's a downgrade as far as shooting and a steady hand goes (although Blake's hot shooting has cooled considerably and his career numbers imply he's not nearly as good as he was during the streak) But lowry is very quick and is a good defender. He's really young as well and may be an excellent backup PG.

Taking on Cardinal's contract sucks, but it would mean that in the summer of 2010 and till the 2011 trade deadline, Portland would have the expiring contracts of both Miles and Cardinal. That might lead to some excellent leverage in a trade. Vinicius would simply be waived.

Giving up a future draft pick is not a great loss in my view considering what portland's future record should be.

And finally, there is another component to this trade. It would give Portland a 4 million dollar trade exception. Portland may very well be able to package the trade exception with jack and/or frye and pick up a good player and perhaps a pick. KP could even aim his sights higher and add Outlaw to the secondary trade with the TPE and jack for instance. That would dangle 8 million in salary relief, and a couple of decent players. This could be some significant leverage.

[Spykes]

I like it, but I'm not sure if the Grizzlies do it though.... However, there certainly is some compelling reasons for them to do it.

[Wizenheimer]

I like it, but I'm not sure if the Grizzlies do it though.... However, there certainly is some compelling reasons for them to do it.

like I said, I was operating under the assumption that Memphis's GM was sincere when he said he wanted to trim payroll. And there was plenty of reporting that he was shopping both Miller and Lowry and really wanted to dump Cardinal.

Besides what I mentioned as extra 'inducement', portland could add a bit more bait...

for instance, portland could send outlaw instead of Webster and McRoberts. I think it would work if Vinicius was signed for a couple hundred thousand more. That would gibe Portland a little larger trade exception.

But then Miller, Webster, and Jones are more redundant then Outlaw, Miller, and Jones

[Fitz303]

Well first, there would still have to be another trade coming because with that move, 1st rd pick, and Rudy coming over, it would put our roster at 17.

As for the trade itself, its not bad. I like the idea of moving up in the draft and upgrading Webster to Miller, but then we still have a logjam in the frontcourt. Someone between Jones, Outlaw, Frye, Joel is going to lose probably all of their minutes.

Personally I would like to see Webster moved with some combination of Jack/Sergio/Blake to move up in the draft and get a PG, and then move Outlaw into the SF position with Jones backing him up. Frye backs up LMA and Joel back up Oden. This trade does all of that but brings in another SF as well. If Jones isnt retained next year, I think its a great deal, but if he comes back, I just think theres too many forwards.

I really think that Outlaw can become the SF of the future for us. I've said that many times and I still say it now. He needs to work on his man defense and his passing, but both are getting better. Jones is the perfect backup for this team and I dont see Frye going anywhere, so I really think Outlaw or Webster is gone after this season.

[Dome]

I really don't think Memphis would take that trade, sorry.

[Wizenheimer]

Well first, there would still have to be another trade coming because with that move, 1st rd pick, and Rudy coming over, it would put our roster at 17.

Actually, no.

Portland is at 15 now. Adding The 1st round pick and Rudy puts portland at 17.

This is a 4 for 4 trade, but you'll notice I said that Vinicius is simply waived and that puts portland at 16. Then, portland simply renounces their rights to Wafer, and they are then at 15 roster spots occupied.

As for the trade itself, its not bad. I like the idea of moving up in the draft and upgrading Webster to Miller, but then we still have a logjam in the frontcourt. Someone between Jones, Outlaw, Frye, Joel is going to lose probably all of their minutes.

Personally I would like to see Webster moved with some combination of Jack/Sergio/Blake to move up in the draft and get a PG, and then move Outlaw into the SF position with Jones backing him up. Frye backs up LMA and Joel back up Oden. This trade does all of that but brings in another SF as well. If Jones isnt retained next year, I think its a great deal, but if he comes back, I just think theres too many forwards.

I really think that Outlaw can become the SF of the future for us. I've said that many times and I still say it now. He needs to work on his man defense and his passing, but both are getting better. Jones is the perfect backup for this team and I dont see Frye going anywhere, so I really think Outlaw or Webster is gone after this season.

I agree that having Outlaw, Frye, Miller, Jones, and Rudy would end up with too many bodies and not enough minutes, if not next year, then by the following season.

But there are 2 variables right now that could change that.

First, while it seems likely Rudy will be here next season, it's not a certainty quite yet. Miller's proven ability to play SG then becomes quite valuable. Even if Rudy does come over, he may not be 'NBA ready' for a season so Miller and Rudy may not be redundant immediately. And if Rudy IS nba ready, then he may very well be capabale of playing some at PG, relieving some minutes pressure at the 2 and 3 positions.

Second, we don't know if James Jones will opt-out or not (likely considering Kapono's contract last year), and if so, what his demands are. He may simply want too much money, and Miller would be valuable insurance in the event portland can't re-sign Jones.

In any event, because of outlaw's ability to play PF and SF (I agree he can play both) and miller's ability to play SF and SG, a wing rotation of outlaw, jones, and miller could be versatile dynamite if other players didn't work out.

Finally, you'll notice in my last paragraph I pointed out the 4 million dollar trade exception created. Since the legendary cap-space plan dies with this trade, That exception packaged with Jack and one (or two) of the redundant players could represent some significant leverage in a subsequent trade, before the feb 2009 trade deadline. I have to think that 4 million in immediate salary relief, along with Jack, lowry, and frye might fetch portland a good player.

[Wizenheimer]

I really don't think Memphis would take that trade, sorry.

perhaps not, but a month ago if someone had proposed the actual Gasol trade, everybody would have laughed and ridiculed the idea. Chris Wallace and the memphis owner seem to be tacking on a little different course.

but why do you say nyet?...because of their downgrade in a draft pick?

[PDXKnight]

Where's the 'Not happening' option? The grizzlies aren't trading their pick. I like the deal as a blazer fan but there's no way that a Grizzlies could hold a straight face if they were proposed this. Even Chris Wallace says no.

[Fitz303]

Yeah I didnt mean that this trade brought in more people, I just meant more that if we're looking to make a trade we should be trying to slim down the roster spots. I forgot Wafer is gone after this year and just missed that you said waive vinicius.

If thats the case, like I said, if Jones isnt retained this summer, I really like the trade. The only real isssues are that I doubt the Jones leaves, and I doubt Rudy doesnt come over and doesnt get 20-25 mpg. I dunno, I wouldnt mind the trade I guess, but Id rather see Outlaw start with Roy LMA and Oden next year and see what they can do with Rudy, Jones and Frye off the bench. Just my ideal situation I guess

[Spykes]

Yeah I didnt mean that this trade brought in more people, I just meant more that if we're looking to make a trade we should be trying to slim down the roster spots. I forgot Wafer is gone after this year and just missed that you said waive vinicius.

If thats the case, like I said, if Jones isnt retained this summer, I really like the trade. The only real isssues are that I doubt the Jones leaves, and I doubt Rudy doesnt come over and doesnt get 20-25 mpg. I dunno, I wouldnt mind the trade I guess, but Id rather see Outlaw start with Roy LMA and Oden next year and see what they can do with Rudy, Jones and Frye off the bench. Just my ideal situation I guess

That's actually a good point. Honestly, I think we could take Vinicius and Lowry out of this deal and be fine. That could make it a bit more enticing to the Grizzlies.

[Wizenheimer]

Where's the 'Not happening' option? The grizzlies aren't trading their pick. I like the deal as a blazer fan but there's no way that a Grizzlies could hold a straight face if they were proposed this. Even Chris Wallace says no.

straight face test #1: Kwame Brown (9.8 million expiring), Crittenton (young player-cheap contract) and future draft picks for Pau Gasol (big contract-long term-53 million)- test passed, straight face maintained

straight face test #2 preparation: memphis shops 3 players -miller-lowry-cardinal. No takers

straight face test #2: Lafrentz and Blake (16.6 million expiring-exceeds 1st test standards), Webster and McRoberts (young players-cheap contracts-matches or exceeds 1st test standards), future draft picks (matches 1st test standards), 6 million cash (exceeds 1st test standards) for Miller, Lowry (exceeds) + Cardinal (factor not present in first test- exceeds) and exchanged picks

The Memphis GM was open about the reasoning behind the Gasol trade. He said he wasn't going to give away Miller and Lowry, but it's no secret he was shopping those players and the reporting is, that his insistence that Cardinal be packaged with Miller was a deal-killer in Miller trade proposals.

My proposal accepts Cardinal as part of the deal, and gives him what he said and implied he was looking for: salary relief in the form of expiring contracts, future draft picks, and young players. It also added 6 million in cash.

You may be right that Memphis would refuse, but at least explain why. You said the Grizzlies wouldn't be trading their pick...teams trade high picks all the time, especially when they just move down in the same draft and gain other substantial compensation. Why is memphis the exception, especially in light of the Gasol trade and the public statements by the GM?

[Wizenheimer]

Yeah I didnt mean that this trade brought in more people, I just meant more that if we're looking to make a trade we should be trying to slim down the roster spots. I forgot Wafer is gone after this year and just missed that you said waive vinicius.

If thats the case, like I said, if Jones isnt retained this summer, I really like the trade. The only real isssues are that I doubt the Jones leaves, and I doubt Rudy doesnt come over and doesnt get 20-25 mpg. I dunno, I wouldnt mind the trade I guess, but Id rather see Outlaw start with Roy LMA and Oden next year and see what they can do with Rudy, Jones and Frye off the bench. Just my ideal situation I guess

In a way it does consolidate roster spots a bit

In your ideal rotation above, the trade doesn't change that. it just adds miller and lowry to the white unit, and also adds some insurance in case rudy or jones aren't here next year.

[Telfaire]

I dont like trading Blake again, one year after we signed him; I'd like to give Webster one more year because he can develop into a much better defender than Miller.

[Wizenheimer]

-= original quote snipped =-



That's actually a good point. Honestly, I think we could take Vinicius and Lowry out of this deal and be fine. That could make it a bit more enticing to the Grizzlies.

I'm sure leaving lowry out of it would entice memphis more and that would be an acceptable compromise if Memphis balked.

My thinking on Lowry and Vinicius was twofold. With Blake gone, portland would need a steady hand at PG, even if only in the backup role. And I added them because I wanted to build a large trade exception for a future move because the cap-space option would be dead.

Maybe Memphis could sign and trade both Vinicius and Navarro to help portland build cap space.

I suppose it's no worry though...jack could always go back to full-time PG...everybody would love that!....

[Wizenheimer]

I dont like trading Blake again, one year after we signed him; I'd like to give Webster one more year because he can develop into a much better defender than Miller.

legitimate reasons

however, Blake signed a contract that accepted the possibility of a short-term stay in portland

and, waiting on webster may be a good title for a sitcom but at some point it might be cancelled. I'd also point out that giving him "one more year" on his current contract will reduce the options to trading him anyway or renouncing the rights to him...that is if portland wants to maintain the cap-space option.

[Mr Odd]

I like the trade, but only if its followed up
by getting another vet which it leaves the
ability to do, so I voted YES!! Miller and
a high pick, I think thats a great move!!

However I doubt the Grizz would do it
unless they really are hardcore on
cutting down costs & so on.. .

[Telfaire]

and, waiting on webster may be a good title for a sitcom but at some point it might be cancelled. I'd also point out that giving him "one more year" on his current contract will reduce the options to trading him anyway or renouncing the rights to him...that is if portland wants to maintain the cap-space option.

How's that? the way I undersatnd the new CBA, we can either extend Webster's contract this summer or exrecise his 4 year option. Heading into the 2009 free agency, we could renounce his bird rights and he'll become UFA instead of RFA.

[Wizenheimer]

and, waiting on webster may be a good title for a sitcom but at some point it might be cancelled. I'd also point out that giving him "one more year" on his current contract will reduce the options to trading him anyway or renouncing the rights to him...that is if portland wants to maintain the cap-space option.

How's that? the way I undersatnd the new CBA, we can either extend Webster's contract this summer or exrecise his 4 year option. Heading into the 2009 free agency, we could renounce his bird rights and he'll become UFA instead of RFA.

that's what I said...(assuming portland didn't extend his contract this summer) portland would have to trade him by the feb 2009 deadline or renounce the bird rights to him beginning in the 2009 off-season. His cap-hold will be around 11.3 million dollars.

[Wizenheimer]

I like the trade, but only if its followed up
by getting another vet which it leaves the
ability to do, so I voted YES!! Miller and
a high pick, I think thats a great move!!

However I doubt the Grizz would do it
unless they really are hardcore on
cutting down costs & so on.. .

yeah...that's why I started the whole thing listing some 'assumptions'

[Telfaire]

that's what I said...(assuming portland didn't extend his contract this summer) portland would have to trade him by the feb 2009 deadline or renounce the bird rights to him beginning in the 2009 off-season. His cap-hold will be around 11.3 million dollars.

So he'll either be a trading cheap for next season, or we wont renounce his bird rights, his cap-hold would still be lower than Miller's. We could sign and trade to somewhere, and absorb more salary thanks to our flexible capspace.

I've suggested a Raef+Webster+picks package next year for Redd in some other thread. That's a hypothetic situation, but same goes for Memphis trading from 5 to 13 just to shed salary, most of it belongs to Miller who's stock is very high and they could've landed expirings for only recently.