Playoff Chances

[SabasRevenge!]

I'd love to see this team grab an 8 seed even if it means picking 6 spots lower, but the odds are definitely against us.

If it takes around 48 wins to make it in the West, we'd have to win around 75% of the rest of our games. Can we do it? What are our chances? What needs to happen for us to go on another tear?

[Fitz303]

Its going to take every one of our guys staying healthy, and another 8-11 game winning streak IMO. Not out of the question, but definitely not going to be a walk in the park

[UGotThrilled]

I would say about a 5% chance. Not good, but those were the odds of us getting the #1 draft pick.

[Milkdud]

I would say are chances look pretty slim.

[Red Robot]

Here's the remaining schedule. The Blazers probably need to win at least 15 games to get the 8th seed. Or maybe they could win the Northwest with 43 or 44 wins if both Utah and Denver collapse. Either way, it's almost impossible.

@ Golden State
Phoenix
@ Milwaukee
@ NY Knicks
@ Cleveland
@ Minnesota
@ Sacramento
Minnesota
Phoenix
LA Clippers
@ LA Clippers
@ Seattle
Washington
@ Golden State
Charlotte
@ LA Lakers
Houston
San Antonio
LA Lakers
@ Sacramento
Dallas
Memphis
@ Phoenix

[magee]

That 5-game road trip will be the key. If they can go 4-1, which is likely, especially if they only lose to Cleveland, or even Minnesota, then they have a great shot. Utah is collapsing because teams decided Kyle Korver can't block shots and the Nuggets can't stop dribble penetration, although defensive juggernaut Tyronn Lue should help with that. It's very possible. I'd rather see them get the 13th pick and trade up in the draft, but we'll see.

[jeffhardyfan52]

Ever one of those games is winabel for us so its not over yet and if you listin to jole he says the team is still going after the 8th seed and not giveing up

[PDXKnight]

Ever one of those games is winabel for us so its not over yet and if you listin to jole he says the team is still going after the 8th seed and not giveing up

I'd hardly call SA, Dallas, and PHX winnable. About half of those games are games that the Blazers SHOULD win but it's really a difficult schedule especially considering how bad the blazers have been on the road.

[jeffhardyfan52]

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I'd hardly call SA, Dallas, and PHX winnable. About half of those games are games that the Blazers SHOULD win but it's really a difficult schedule especially considering how bad the blazers have been on the road.

we have beat dallas already so that proves we can do it again and with the win over LA which is the best team in the west right now(saying that makes me sick) shwos we can beat any of the other teams the suns are still adjusting to shaq right now so we can take advatage of that the supers are the hardist there but we can beat them but im not saying we will just saying that it can happen

[PDXKnight]

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we have beat dallas already so that proves we can do it again and with the win over LA which is the best team in the west right now(saying that makes me sick) shwos we can beat any of the other teams the suns are still adjusting to shaq right now so we can take advatage of that the supers are the hardist there but we can beat them but im not saying we will just saying that it can happen

Yeah, it definitely can happen (anything's possible in the NBA) but I'm saying it's highly unlikely. Also, while the Blazers beat dallas one time, I find it hard to believe that it'll happen again.

[Mr Odd]

You all know im a realist so you all know my answer.

[AKBlazerFan]

I find it hard to imagine rigith now. Utah/GS/Houston have been playing really good ball as of late. IF we stay healthy we might have 5-10% chance.

[SabasRevenge!]

12 of the remaining games are against teams that have a worse record than us. If we can win 10 of those 12 plus 5 of 11 against teams with better records we'd have a decent shot with 46 wins. Like Fitz said, our guys will have to stay healthy and some of our key guys aren't used to the rigor of an 82 game season, but looking at it that way it seems possible but certainly not probable. Even at 46 wins we'd need 2 teams in front of us to play sub-.500 ball for the rest of the year to overtake them.

[ebott]

No chance in hell.

If this were a normal year where it took 40 to 45 wins to make the playoffs I'd say we have a good chance. But this is a legendary year. It'll take nearly 50 wins to make the playoffs this year. In the last 20 years there's only been one season like it.

That probably goes for the entire history of the NBA, I only checked back 20 years.

[mojomarc]

12 of the remaining games are against teams that have a worse record than us. If we can win 10 of those 12 plus 5 of 11 against teams with better records we'd have a decent shot with 46 wins. Like Fitz said, our guys will have to stay healthy and some of our key guys aren't used to the rigor of an 82 game season, but looking at it that way it seems possible but certainly not probable. Even at 46 wins we'd need 2 teams in front of us to play sub-.500 ball for the rest of the year to overtake them.

In the 24 games since we went 17-1, we are 9-15. Thinking that we can end the season 15-8 is pretty ridiculous after that stretch. If you're going to play with numbers, please suggest what it is you've seen from the Team's play over the last two months that really suggests this team can go 15-8, because I sure haven't seen anything that even makes me hugely optimistic that we can be better than .500 over the remainder of the season, particularly given that we're pretty darned likely to go 2-6 in April alone.

[Fitz303]

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In the 24 games since we went 17-1, we are 9-15. Thinking that we can end the season 15-8 is pretty ridiculous after that stretch. If you're going to play with numbers, please suggest what it is you've seen from the Team's play over the last two months that really suggests this team can go 15-8, because I sure haven't seen anything that even makes me hugely optimistic that we can be better than .500 over the remainder of the season, particularly given that we're pretty darned likely to go 2-6 in April alone.

It didnt end up being so ridiculous to think that we would go 17-1 after going 5-12 before that, so why is it so ridiculous to think that this team getting healthy at the right time and getting hot again can go 15-8? as was stated, 12 games against teams worse than us. Im not saying this is probable by any means, but if we play anything like we were before Jones began hurting again and the whole team began to hit a mid season slump, whos to say we cant get back on another streak?

Doubt it happens, but heres to hoping we recapture the magic of 13 straight

[SabasRevenge!]

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In the 24 games since we went 17-1, we are 9-15. Thinking that we can end the season 15-8 is pretty ridiculous after that stretch. If you're going to play with numbers, please suggest what it is you've seen from the Team's play over the last two months that really suggests this team can go 15-8, because I sure haven't seen anything that even makes me hugely optimistic that we can be better than .500 over the remainder of the season, particularly given that we're pretty darned likely to go 2-6 in April alone.

The Blazers have been nothing if not streaky this year. We've been so streaky, I don't see why we can't have an impressive run to end the season with a healthy group.

"possible but certainly not probable"

..ugh.. I was merely saying that's what it would take. I haven't seen any language from anyone that suggests winning 75% of the rest of our games is likely. Aside from that, the topic was started because I was curious to hear what other fans think.

If we want to look at recent history, how about the last game we played a tight rotation with a healthy team? We played possibly our best game of the year last night and beat the team with the best record in the West. We've still played about the 3rd toughest schedule in the league and we've got some very winnable games coming up. Again just to be clear, nobody is saying it's likely, only that it's possible. I'm very happy just to be able to talk about this at this point in the season.

[mojomarc]

It didnt end up being so ridiculous to think that we would go 17-1 after going 5-12 before that, so why is it so ridiculous to think that this team getting healthy at the right time and getting hot again can go 15-8?

The 17-1 stretch was against mediochre teams that we were catching on th right nights. Who was the best team we beat during that stretch?


as was stated, 12 games against teams worse than us. Im not saying this is probable by any means, but if we play anything like we were before Jones began hurting again and the whole team began to hit a mid season slump, whos to say we cant get back on another streak? A Utah team in the middle of their worst stretch of the season? A Denver team that isn't even in the playoffs if they started today, or the Golden State team that's currently a whopping half game better? We beat a couple of 8th/9th seeds, and then the rest of the teams we played were crap. We don't have the luxury of playing scrubs like that in a row to finish out the season--we have to play Phoenix, Houston, San Antonio, the Lakers, Cleveland, and given the situation this year no team is likely to be resting before the last game of the season. Yes, we've been streaky, but we were hardly dominant in our wins at the time and we won't have the luxury of surprising teams like we did during the streak since every team has us well-scouted now.

I'm all for wishful thinking, but this is beyond wishful.

[UGotThrilled]

There is a huge reliance on our shooting. If we can get hot, we have a chance. Without Jones, we suck, with him, we are alright. We have won games against good teams, such as the Lakers, the Pistons, The Mavs, and the Hornets. I dont understand the complete pessimism. If you have no hope... thats just lame. I am doubtful, but I still give us 5%, and so I have something to root for.

[swede]

I think we prolly have no way