Who will be back for Fall camp '08?

[Discovery69]

Nate and Pritchard have probably discussed this already and the wheels are in motion, but it seems like the Blazers will have 3-5 new players next season.

Brandon Roy, LaMarcus Aldridge & Greg Oden - franchise players
Travis Outlaw - 6th man
Steve Blake, James Jones & Joel Przybilla - valuable role players
Sergio Rodriguez & Josh McRoberts - keep for one more season

Jarrett Jack, Channing Frye & Martell Webster - keep or trade only to get a better player
Von Wafer - probably let go to make room for Fernandez or a rookie
Raef LaFrenz - waived if a better player is available via trade or draft; or traded by the Feb '09 trade deadline
Darius Miles - waived, can't imagine Nate will want to see his face in fall camp.

I think Jack is the most likely player traded this summer. Nate will probably want to keep Martell for one more year to see if he continues to make progress. Pritchard really likes Channing Frye and will probably want to give him one more season to improve.

Gone before fall camp '08: Darius Miles, Von Wafer, Jarrett Jack

Replacements: Rudy Fernandez, Kevin Love & veteran PG (i.e. Jose Calderon or Shaun Livingston)

Blake, Roy, Webster, Aldridge, Oden
Rodriguez, Fernandez, Jones, Outlaw, Przybilla
Livingston, Love, Frye, McRoberts, LaFrenz

[ebott]

After last night's game how can you say that Outlaw is a keeper and Webster should be dealt? Here's my take...

Keepers: Oden, Aldridge, Roy and Webster
Likely to stay: Blake, James Jones and Joel
Most likely to be traded: Jack, Outlaw and Frye

No clue: Sergio. Nate doesn't seem to like him, but KP does. So on one hand I don't see him playing a bigger role next season, but I also don't see him getting traded.

What would be my ideal is if those three guys were traded for a good point guard and either use our pick or bring over Freeland or play McRoberts on a backup 4. Depth chart...

c- Oden, Joel
pf- Aldridge, McRoberts
sf- Webster, Rudy
sg- Roy, Rudy
pg- ?, Blake, Sergio

[JD45]

I think only Oden, Aldridge and Roy are sure things.

Trade chips (in order of value): Outlaw, Frye, Webster, Joel, Jack, Sergio, Blake.

Jones is not important.

Outlaw looks a a bit like Tim Thomas. Nice offensive game and athletic, but no defense or rebounding. But he has a reasonable contract and is young. Frye looks like a good backup and potential starter for some teams. Webster is still a project. Could be a total bust or a good starter.

[Spykes]

Jones is not important.

That couldn't be further from the truth. When his shot is on, the numbers speak for themselves. His great lockerroom leadership aside, he's just a smart and savvy vet. He's definitely someone who needs to be back next year. And if for whatever reason he isn't resigned (knee concerns or unrealistic contract demands), KP better have someone up his sleeve to replace his shooting touch, because this team struggles without a player like him.

As for the Martell/Outlaw debate, I wouldn't list either of them as "Keepers" and I wouldn't list either of them as "likely to be traded". I think Pritchard would be willing to listen to offers for both players and if a sweetheart of a deal came along, both are equally expendable.

[Wizenheimer]

After last night's game how can you say that Outlaw is a keeper and Webster should be dealt? Here's my take...

Keepers: Oden, Aldridge, Roy and Webster
Likely to stay: Blake, James Jones and Joel
Most likely to be traded: Jack, Outlaw and Frye

No clue: Sergio. Nate doesn't seem to like him, but KP does. So on one hand I don't see him playing a bigger role next season, but I also don't see him getting traded.

What would be my ideal is if those three guys were traded for a good point guard and either use our pick or bring over Freeland or play McRoberts on a backup 4. Depth chart...

c- Oden, Joel
pf- Aldridge, McRoberts
sf- Webster, Rudy
sg- Roy, Rudy
pg- ?, Blake, Sergio

maybe because over the 2 games before that, Martell had managed a grand total of 10 points, 3 rebounds and 4 turnovers...that's a bad set of averages. Meanwhile, travis scored 51 points and had 10 rebounds in the previous 3 games.

The judgement on outlaw and webster, and jones for that matter, won't be based upon some selected games by their supporters. Both players are inconsistent at this point, so saying any single game proves anything is crazy.

I agree that travis almost certainly has more value around the league then Martell. I don't think it's even close as far as other GM's are concerned. So if KP is really looking for leverage in a trade this summer, travis may be his best option. But that value differential is based upon real considerations. I believe Travis is judged to have more ability and and be more productive then martell. I don't think some amorphous 'potential' will trump current ability and production in the minds of most GM's not named zeke. Perhaps, they'll have noticed like me, then in the last 3 games martell has tried to put the ball on the floor and create...the result has been turnovers.

I like Travis's game right now a bit more then I like martell's. But if KP can use Travis in a trade to upgrade the PG position, then I'm OK with that.

I still think it's more likely that Webster will be traded this summer then Travis. KP has already shown a willingness to deal webster. However, if Jones opts out and demands too much, then niether martell nor travis will be traded.

[SinceClyde]

There are a number of things in this thread that I have a bone to pick with.

Raef LaFrenz - waived if a better player is available via trade or draft; or traded by the Feb '09 trade deadline
Darius Miles - waived, can't imagine Nate will want to see his face in fall camp.

Raef's value is in his expiring contract through a trade or coming off the books. KP will not, I repeat, will not waive him until after the trade deadline next season when all trading options have been exhausted.

Miles is costing PA very little and waiving him ruins insurance paying for him. Sure he's on the cap, but do you really think PA wants to pay 8 mil a year so a second round pick could take the place?

After last night's game how can you say that Outlaw is a keeper and Webster should be dealt? Here's my take..

Travis has been way way more consistent than Webster this season. Anytime I hear anyone say "after this game..." I shake my head. We're looking for a player that can play closer to a full season with consistency and while Webster is improving, Outlaw has done much more for this team, this season. Travis is scoring 13 pts. 4.4 rbs in 26 minutes while martell is scoring 10 pts, 4 rbs in 28 minutes.

Jones is not important.

Please tell me you are joking. I'm hoping you are joking. Nate may prize James Jones more than anyone outside the big 3 (including Jack ) and KP is probably on line with that. He, along with Blake, have been a pretty big part of the transition from 'another young team' to a near playoff appearance in the West.

I think there are three sets of players we have:

Untouchables: Roy, LMA, Oden
It's going to take a lot: Outlaw, Joel Pryzbilla, Blake, Jones
Not a surprise to see go: Webster, Sergio, Josh, Frye, Raef(trade or expires), Jack, Von, miles.

I think Joel and Blake are great backups. Jones is probably going to be Nate's new favorite after Jack is gone. Outlaw is either a big trading piece or our future backup pf/sf.

[Spykes]

Miles is costing PA very little and waiving him ruins insurance paying for him. Sure he's on the cap, but do you really think PA wants to pay 8 mil a year so a second round pick could take the place?

I think when he said "Miles will be waived", he was talking about the 'career ending injury' exception the Blazers should get once the doctors deem that his knees are too shot for him to continue playing. At the point, the Blazers can waive Miles and his contract won't be on the cap anymore.

[SinceClyde]

Oh okay, I am not convinced that the medical retirement will succeed, but I hope it does.

[Norm2953]

I'd like to see us add one more good player in our rotation
to go with Oden, Roy and LA. Anyone else on the roster
would be available in a trade to move up from 13 to 7 or 8
to get one of the solid freshman guards that we can break
in behind Roy and Blake.

[Spykes]

Oh okay, I am not convinced that the medical retirement will succeed, but I hope it does.

Indications seem to point to this succeeding. I can't imagine Pritchard going through all this trouble if there wasn't a good chance of this working.

[Red Robot]

From most likely to least likely to be moved:

Almost certainly gone
Von Wafer

Probably gone
Darius Miles

50/50
James Jones

Most likely staying
Josh McRoberts
Sergio Rodriguez
Jarrett Jack
Channing Frye
Travis Outlaw
Martell Webster

Very surprising if moved
Joel Przybilla
Steve Blake
Raef LaFrentz

Not going anywhere
LaMarcus Aldridge
Brandon Roy
Greg Oden

[d-train]

Since Miles is on his way off the books through medical retirement, the number 1 priority is to dump Przybilla's contract. It might not be possible but Blazers can leave no stone unturned while trying to dump Joel's salary. Other than this, there really isn't any urgent business other than the normal goal to improve the quality of our 4th through 8th best players. That will be outstanding business even when the team is winning 60+ games per year.

[ebott]

After last night's game how can you say that Outlaw is a keeper and Webster should be dealt? Here's my take..

Travis has been way way more consistent than Webster this season.

That's simply not true. Travis has been more PRODUCTIVE than Webster, but they've both been inconsistent.

Here's how their point totals break down for the season...

Travis
20+: 12
15-19: 13
10-14: 22
-10: 21

Martell
20+: 4
15-19: 14
10-14: 15
-10: 35

Nobody can look at those numbers and say that Travis has been WAY WAY more consistent than Martell.

Anytime I hear anyone say "after this game..." I shake my head.

Well the Martell v Outlaw debate continues to rage on, so each game counts. And when we're talking about players as young as Martell and Outlaw and we're thinking more about possible future production rather than current production anecdotal evidence is still useful.

One of the more valid pro-Webster arguments has been that he's got the ability to be a good spotup shooter, which makes him a better match for our future Greg Oden based offense than Outlaw. I specifically brought up last night's game because Martell was strokin' it and it really helped to open things up for Aldridge. I imagine that he will be able to do do that even more next season with Oden around.

So it wasn't just that Webster had a good game and Travis didn't. It's also the way in which the good game came to fruition.

We're looking for a player that can play closer to a full season with consistency and while Webster is improving, Outlaw has done much more for this team, this season. Travis is scoring 13 pts. 4.4 rbs in 26 minutes while martell is scoring 10 pts, 4 rbs in 28 minutes.

Yeah, but Martell takes 9 shots a game to Travis' 11. Travis is usually the first option when he's ont he court. Martell, OTOH, is pretty much always the third or forth option and IMHO never has any plays run for him.

There's also the whole Travis playing at the 4 and being pushed out of the rotation next year argument. I'm starting to think that Travis being more effective at the 4 has less to do with Travis and more to do with the role of the 3 in our offensive schemes.

Our 3 is mostly there to help spread the floor and hit open shots. Not so much to be a primary scorer, which is Travis' strength. It seems like in the rare instances when Travis plays the 3 he just kind of floats, just like people complain Webster does.

Maybe Travis can backup both the 4 and the 3 next season if we have a better shooter like Rudy at the backup 2 and then the 3 can do some more of the primary scoring. What would be awesome is if we could find a way to keep both Travis and Martell and get a good point guard using our other trade-able assets.

[SinceClyde]

Good argument, ebott. I see we're in simple disagreement but may agree on a few things. On the previous post it was stated it should be a priority to get Joel's contract traded, and if we are playing the "after this game..." card, he should stay

It's not crazy to debate TO vs webster. Two young, high-potential players. Either one I would use in a trade to get a key pg.

Our 3 is mostly there to help spread the floor and hit open shots. Not so much to be a primary scorer, which is Travis' strength. It seems like in the rare instances when Travis plays the 3 he just kind of floats, just like people complain Webster does.[/q]

I think Nate just said this on an interview, so no argument there.[/quote]

[ebott]

Good argument, ebott. I see we're in simple disagreement but may agree on a few things.

Thanks Hopefully they'll both stay and we can just agree that we love the Blazers rather than discussing who's a keeper and who should be traded.

On the previous post it was stated it should be a priority to get Joel's contract traded, and if we are playing the "after this game..." card, he should stay

[sarcasm]Joel had a good game? I hadn't heard.[/sarcasm]

Joel's good game can easily be explained way by the Clippers complete and total lack of interior presence. When the other team is trotting out the likes of Josh Powell and Tim Thomas as their starting big men it's almost embarrassing if your starting center doesn't get 25 rebounds.

It's not crazy to debate TO vs webster. Two young, high-potential players. Either one I would use in a trade to get a key pg.

True dat. It's gonna be an interesting off-season. I'm gonna be on the edge of my seat on draft day, that's for sure.

[DaVoiceMaster]

Webster vs. Outlaw is a tough one because their games are so different. If I gotta choose one though, I choose Webster. Outlaw takes horrible shots and doesn't like to pass the ball. Webster doesn't take too many shots and is more of a team player. Add that Webster's game will compliment Oden's game tremendously and Webster is a year or two younger so still has plenty of growing room. Like Ebott said, Outlaw's PF position will be a little overcrowded next season so how much playing time will he actually get? Perhaps we should keep Frye and move Outlaw?!?!?!?

Like others have said though, everyone outside of Oden, LMA, and Roy is expendable.

[Discovery69]

Quick was on KFXX for his pre-game Seattle Sonic game discussion and the major topic was that the Blazers plan on being a major player again this summer with trades. Nate said that no one is protected, but then got into telling Quick that teams will be coming after Roy, Aldridge and Outlaw.

Those players aren't untouchable, but it would take a major deal (i.e. superstar player) to want to move those players. Nate wants to keep Outlaw at PF and feels his best games are at that position instead of SF.

The next group of players that gets the most inquiry of availability is Jarrett Jack, Martell Webster, Sergio Rodriguez and Channing Frye.

Nate really likes Martell and he is almost an untouchable as they are working with Martel more on being a better defender than a better shooter. Nate feels Martell could end up guarding the Kobe Bryants and LeBron James players as Nate feels he needs more of a defensive minded SF than he needs a shooter. With most of the offense going to Roy, Aldridge and Oden next season. He would like Martell to become the sniper of the team as when they need a key 3pt or 2pt shot with other people being guarded. So Martell could be the 4th or even the 5th option on the starting team next year.

Pritchard is a big fan of Channing Frye and they look at this year as a lost year with Channing needing to play out of position a lot at center. The Blazers would like to see how Channing does as just a PF with Joel probably as the backup center. The major problem is that Travis is doing well enough that he is the backup PF and makes Channing the 3rd PF.

[additional note as Quick didn't say much about Sergio, but in the past Paul Allen and Pritchard are fans of Sergio and feel he has the talent to eventually become a starting PG and they also need Sergio to attract Rudy Fernandez]

Quick believes the most likely player that will be traded is Jarrett Jack. Jack has struggled in the last 20 games and has made some very bad turnovers at the most strategic times in a game. Quick doesn't think if Jack had a great dozen games it will save him from not being traded.

Nate indicated to Quick in order for the Blazers to be a playoff / future championship contender they will need to part with some players they like a lot....

[Wizenheimer]

Quick was on KFXX for his pre-game Seattle Sonic game discussion and the major topic was that the Blazers plan on being a major player again this summer with trades. Nate said that no one is protected, but then got into telling Quick that teams will be coming after Roy, Aldridge and Outlaw.

Those players aren't untouchable, but it would take a major deal (i.e. superstar player) to want to move those players. Nate wants to keep Outlaw at PF and feels his best games are at that position instead of SF.

The next group of players that gets the most inquiry of availability is Jarrett Jack, Martell Webster, Sergio Rodriguez and Channing Frye.

Nate really likes Martell and he is almost an untouchable as they are working with Martel more on being a better defender than a better shooter. Nate feels Martell could end up guarding the Kobe Bryants and LeBron James players as Nate feels he needs more of a defensive minded SF than he needs a shooter. With most of the offense going to Roy, Aldridge and Oden next season. He would like Martell to become the sniper of the team as when they need a key 3pt or 2pt shot with other people being guarded. So Martell could be the 4th or even the 5th option on the starting team next year.

Pritchard is a big fan of Channing Frye and they look at this year as a lost year with Channing needing to play out of position a lot at center. The Blazers would like to see how Channing does as just a PF with Joel probably as the backup center. The major problem is that Travis is doing well enough that he is the backup PF and makes Channing the 3rd PF.

[additional note as Quick didn't say much about Sergio, but in the past Paul Allen and Pritchard are fans of Sergio and feel he has the talent to eventually become a starting PG and they also need Sergio to attract Rudy Fernandez]

Quick believes the most likely player that will be traded is Jarrett Jack. Jack has struggled in the last 20 games and has made some very bad turnovers at the most strategic times in a game. Quick doesn't think if Jack had a great dozen games it will save him from not being traded.

Nate indicated to Quick in order for the Blazers to be a playoff / future championship contender they will need to part with some players they like a lot....

I don't think there is much doubt about having to part with some players they like.

I suspect however, that there may be a difference of opinion between Nate and KP on just what players to part with.

KP is high on Frye and Rodriguez but Nate seems to vote the opposite way with playing time. On the other hand, Nate says he's high on Webster, yet KP tried to trade martell last summer.

should be interesting.

and quick has been saying the same thing about jack for months

[tester551]

Nate really likes Martell and he is almost an untouchable as they are working with Martel more on being a better defender than a better shooter. Nate feels Martell could end up guarding the Kobe Bryants and LeBron James players as Nate feels he needs more of a defensive minded SF than he needs a shooter. With most of the offense going to Roy, Aldridge and Oden next season. He would like Martell to become the sniper of the team as when they need a key 3pt or 2pt shot with other people being guarded. So Martell could be the 4th or even the 5th option on the starting team next year.

I don't get to see any of the Blazer games. How is Martell progressing with his D? Is he really making any progress?

[Billy]

Thanks for the info D69. On a side note it's great to see you around the site .

Even though I know I shouldn't be surprised, it did feel a little weird to see that "no one is protected." It would be incredibly weird to see any of the big 3 dealt (realistically I think Oden would never be dealt for anything short of Lebron or Howard simply because he's supposed to be of the same caliber).

I can certainly understand the view of a lost year for Channing. He was very good for Portland when he started in place of Aldridge. But he certainly is not a full time center, and rarely can he succeed there. Frye has played a whopping 78 minutes this year with Przybilla at his side. I'm willing to guess that those minutes came when Aldridge was out. That means that roughly 92% of his minutes this season have come without a big rebounding/defensive presence to help him out. I'd say he's actually done very well considering this fact.

One thing that is very encouraging about KP is he does not seem afraid to part with a guy he likes if he feels it would make the team better. I have no doubt in my mind that he'd trade any of the guys on the team if he knew it would improve the team.

I'm really really looking forward to this draft/this summer. I think KP is really going to shake things up to get better.